Next resistance range will confirm more than 10% one sided decisive moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 20 to Apr 24,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages & Stochastic)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning
3- Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9324.00 on 17-04-2020
4- SMA(Simple Moving Averages)
A- 5-Day SMA is at 9058
B- 13-Day SMA is at 8719
C- 55-Day SMA is at 10474
D- 200-Day SMA is at 11311
5- Stochastic-%K(5) is at 69.03 & %D(3) is at 73.42
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Averages & Stochastic)
The rally which started from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 is very much on through moving above both short Term Averages(5 and 13) and 5-Day SMA has also moved above 13-Day SMA which is another positive signal but Stochastic has become over bought and showing negative divergence also therefore emergence of short Term Correction beginning signals,let clear selling patterns develop on intraday charts then its continuation will be seen.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of corrective Wave-A(7511.1 to 12430.50):-
1- 13.0%- 8150 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8672 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 8839 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 9390 (Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 9970 (Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 10551(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 10989
8- 76.4%- 11269
9- 78.6%- 11377
10-88.6%- 11869
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Fibonacci retracement levels)
As 27.0% Retracement has been completed and last Friday highest was little below 38.2%(9390) level at 9324 as well as Nifty closed at the top of on going Pull Back rally therefore firstly sustaining beyond 38.2%(9390) should be watched in next week because that will decide:-
1- Sustaining above 9390 will mean rally continuation towards and/or above 50.0% retracement level(9970)
2- Sustaining below 9390 will mean slipping towards and/or below the bottom(7511.10) of on going rally
NiftyLast 21 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 16 to Apr 17,2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 21 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 21 sessions between
A- 9254-9403
B- 9430-9584
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 21 sessions
A- 9092-9173
B- 8913-8972
C- 8654-8750
D- 8361-8449
E- 8056-8107
F- 7512-7970
3- Mixed Patterns formation
4- 21 Sessions actual trading between 7512-9602
Conclusions from 21 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Last 21 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with above mentioned higher levels 2 resistances and lower levels 6 supports therefore firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves(more than 10%) which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(17-Apr-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(17-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Sideways up to 10 AM after more than 3% gap up opening
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Consolidation between 9092-9173(Immediate Supports)
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 9092-9324
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As following 3 reasons therefore more than 3% gap up opening on 17-04-2020:-
1- High expetations from RBI Governor Press Conference which was scheduled at 10:00 AM same day.
2- Dow Jones'S Fututes was trading more than 850 points up since morning on the news of more than 1300 patients recovery from Corona after taking a specific medicine.
3- All the Asian markets were trading strong since morning.
Although huge gap up opening and traded also with such good gains till 10:00 AM but started to slip immediately after RBI Governor Press Conference beginning. As all the down moves till 12;00 PM were in Bullish Falling Channels and lower levels consolidation also between 9092-9173 therefore up moves were seen in last 2 hours.
As last hours Up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore some profit booking can not be ruled out because sentiment turned heated in last hours due to news of Package by Finanace Ministery on 18-04-2020 and all Global markets were trading strong at that time.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Waves structure) was updated in the weekly Outlook of Apr 07 to Apr 09,2020 and no material change in Waves structure since then therefore it is not being posted in this week.
1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is sideways between 7512-9602 for the last 21 Sessions.
3- Short term trend is up.
Corrective Wave-A completed at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and after that impulsive Wave-B begun which is in continuation with recent top formation at 9324.00 on 17-04-2020 and no confirmation of its completion yet.
Although last Friday closing was at the top of on going rally with new top(9324.00) formation of on going rally but due to following reasons therefore view will be cautiously Bullish:-
1- Economic package news on 18-04-2019 was in Business news Channels.
2- All European markets were trading more than 3.5% up at the time of Indian markets closing
3- Dow Jones Futures was trading more than 700 points up at the time of Indian markets closing
4- All the Asian markets closed 1.5% to 3% up
As 3.05% positive closing was on the back of above positive news flow on 17-04-2019 therefore firstly sustaining above last Friday highest(9324.00) should be watched in the beginning of next week because following resistances are lying above last Friday closing:-
1- 9254-9403
2- 9430-9584
Although Short Term indicators have turned over bought and showing negative divergence also but sufficient selling patterns have not developed on intraday charts yet therefore firstly next 1/2 sessions of next week should be watched because if fresh selling develops then Short Term Correction will be seen in next week
Above mentioned 1st resistance range(9254-9403) has become most crucial for next week because;-
1- 38.2% retracement level(9390) is lying within it.
2- Recent top of Wave-B(9324.00) and last Friday closing(9266.75) is also within it
As firstly follow up moves within and/or near about next resistance range(9254-9403) and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm the life of on going rally with more than 10% one sided decisive moves also therefore should be watched in next week.