Next Trend Decider in coming week is 8064
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jun 27 to Jul 01,2016)
Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jun-2016):-
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1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3(8294.95 on 07-06-2016)
5- Short Term Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7927.05 on 24-06-2016
6- Previous 20 sessions trading between 8064-8295
7- Long Term Trend is up after sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7863)
Retracement Levels of Post Budget Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jun-2016):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3(8294.95 on 07-06-2016)
5- Short Term Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7927.05 on 24-06-2016
Intra Day Chart Analysis(24-06-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jun-2016):-
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1- Support between 7928-7970
2- Up moves beginning with fast recovery in European markets and Dow's Futures.
3- Last 3 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 7928-8100
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Huge gap down opening after crashing like all Asian markets due to Brexit but last 3 hours up moves after some supports at lower levels. As up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel and on the back of fast recovery in European markets and Dow's Futures therefore sustaining above day's supports(7928) is must for on going correction completion confirmations.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Long Term Trend is up through sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7863).
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways within previous 20 sessions trading range(8064-8295).
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Correction of that rally is on which begun on Union Budget day(29-02-2016) from 6825.80. Sideways correction was seen in Previous 20 sessions between 8064-8295 and this range was broken down but closing within this range at 8088.60 last Friday therefore still Nifty will be understood range bound within this range(8064-8295) and deeper correction will be considered after sustaining below 8064 because that will be Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmation also. Next supports below 8064 are as follows:-
1- 7928-7970
2- 7684-7768
3- 7527-7567
Retracement levels of post Union Budget Rally(6826-8295) are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 8,104
2- 23.6%- 7,948
3- 27.0%- 7,898
4- 38.2%- 7,733(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7,560(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7,387(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7,256
8- 76.4%- 7,172
9- 78.6%- 7,140
10-88.6%- 6,993
As last Friday highly volatile market was due to Brexit and closing was within 20 sessions trading range(8064-8295) after strong recovery from lower levels therefore sustaining beyond 8064 should be firstly watched in the coming 1/2 sessions because it is the most crucial level now and it will decide Intermediate Term Trend also. Once sustaining below it will mean strong possibility of correction continuation towards 2nd support range(7684-7768) because as such no good supports above it and 38.2% Crucial retracement level(7733) is also lying within this support range.
Last Friday down moves were due to Brexit and next trend will be decided from 8064 in next week. Finally sustaining above it will mean entering into previous 20 sessions range(8064-8295) after correction completion at 7927.05 last Friday and sustaining below it will mean high possibility of correction continuation towards 38.2% Crucial retracement level(7733).