Correction Continuation & 3 crucial levels are Big Trend Decider of Nifty
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 20 to Apr 24,2015)
Huge correction of Nifty was seen in 2008 which started on 08-01-2008 from 6357.10 and completed at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 and Wave-1 started. Its waves structure with detailed analysis was updated in following topic of previous week Outlook:-
Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week
Its Wave-3 started after Wave-2 correction completion on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15. Now Wave-3 is on and its waves structure is as follows:-
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)- Wave-2 beginning('ABC' correction)
7- Wave'A'(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave'B'(5093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave'c'(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)- Wave-3 beginning Wave after 'ABC' correction completion)
10- Wave-3 recent top formation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that correction continuation
11- Recent bottom of on going correction formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
Waves structure of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally completion(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8844.40 on 15-04-2015
Waves structure of Wave-5 and on going Correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-
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1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C' continuation with recent bottom formation at 8596.70 on 17-04-2015
62 Sessions sideways Trading between 8269-9119
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-
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1- Head and Shoulders Bearish Pattern formations in 62 sessions with neckline at 8269
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Wave-3 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013,its 5 waves completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that correction started. As correction begun after completion of 5 waves therefore Nifty may correct whole 4000 points rally in accordance of following retracement levels:-
1- 13.0%- 8,598(Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8,174
3- 27.0%- 8,038
4- 38.2%- 7,590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7,118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 6,646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 6,290
8- 76.4%- 6,062
8- 78.6%- 5,974
10-88.6%- 5,574
Now 'ABC' correction of Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation between 8269-9119. Waves movements within this range are as follows:-
Wave-'A' corrected 850 points(9119-8269)
Now Wave-'C' correction is on after Wave-'B'completion at 8844 and if Wave-'C' corrects 100% of Wave-'A' then:-
Wave-'C' may correct up to 7994(8844-850)
Following levels are lying near 7994:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8175)
2- Bottom of Wave-5(7961.35)
3- Bottom of Wave-'A'(8269.15)
Wave-'C' correction continuation and expected that war between Bulls and Bears will be seen near about above 4 levels as well as finally sustaining beyond 7961 will decide next Big moves because:-
1- If Nifty sustain below 7961 then much deeper correction may be seen because that will be Long Term Trend turning down confirmation after sustaining below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8175) also.
2- If Nifty sustain above 7961 then that will be strong indication of not only Wave-5 correction completion but also of correction completion of that Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013.
Long Term Trend is up, Short Term Trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8844 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide Intermediate Term Trend as well as give first strong indication of next big moves because:-
1- Nifty is sideways between 8269-9119 for the last 62 sessions with Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations within it and its neckline is at 8269 therefore sustaining below 8269 will mean first strong indication of deeper correction.
2- As following 2 resistances are above 8844 which have turned weaker after 27 sessions correction below it therefore sustaining above 8844 will mean first strong indication of fresh strong rally above life time high(9119.20) after correction completion.
1- Resistances between 8920-8943
2- Resistances 9023-9096
'ABC' correction of Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation between 7961-9119 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide next big trend in above mentioned manner. Now Wave-'C' correction is on and if Wave-'C' corrects 100% of Wave-'A' then it may correct up to 7994 which is just above 7961 therefore possibility of correction completion above 7961 after 'ABC' correction completion is still alive and should be firstly watched. As many times Bull markets complete its correction in narrow range sideways market with Time wise correction also therefore correction completion within sideways markets between 7961-9119 can not be ruled out.
Correction is on and its continuation is expected. As its life and length will be decided through sustaining beyond 8269,7994 and 7961 therefore sustaining beyond these 3 levels should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks. Above mentioned next big Trends possibilities should be kept in mind and these 3 crucial levels will give strong indications of its beginning as well as these levels will be proved those big moves decider.