Range Bound week ahead before next Big Trend
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 02 to Sep 06,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Aug-2013):-
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1- Wave-5 completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 and 'ABC' correction continuation.
2- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
3- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
4- Wave-C bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013
5- Pull Back Rally recent top formation at 5493.20 on 30-08-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As correction started after Wave-5 completion at 6229.45 therefore correction possibility of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 with its retracement levels were updated on 31-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013) and its 61.8%(5179) retracement has been completed after bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013. 'ABC' correction is on and now Pull Back Rally continuation after Wave-C bottom formation at 5118.85 therefore following retracement levels of its whole Wave-C down moves(6093-5118) should be firstly watched:-
23.6%-5348(retracement completed)
38.2%-5490(retracement completed)
50.0%-5605
61.8%-5720
76.4%-5862
38.2% retracement of on going Pull Back Rally has been completed after top formation at 5493.20 on 30-08-2013. More than 4% crash was seen on 16-08-2013 and after that Nifty traded most time between 5118-5605 in last 11 sessions therefore firstly technical positions of last 11 trading sessions should be understood for deciding next trend:-
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 16 to Aug 30,20133):-
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1- Selling between 5530-5605 on 16-08-2013
2- Selling between 5490-5528 on 26-08-2013
3- Selling between 5438-5466 on 30-08-2013
4- Consolidation between 5270-5325 on 22-08-2013
5- Consolidation between 5123-5200 on 28-08-2013
6- Lower tops and lower bottoms formations in last 11 sessions
Conclusions from 11 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although supports at lower levels but good selling at higher levels with lower tops and lower bottoms formations in last 11 sessions therefore down moves are expected after follow up selling in the coming sessions.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Aug-2013):-
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1- Selling between 5438-5466.
2- Support between 5360-5390.
3- High intraday volatility.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5360-5493
Intra Day connection between Nifty andChart on 30-Aug-2013:-
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Firstly good selling at higher levels in more than 2 hours but lower levels some supports also seen. Although closing near higher levels of the day but whole day intraday moves of Nifty were directly effected by moves of Indian Rupee(USDINR) and in the last minutes also Nifty formed new intraday high after new intraday low formation by USDINR therefore new intraday high formation of Nifty will be understood only sentiments driven and Until Nifty will not sustain above the highest of day till then any decisive up move will not be considered.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Following support levels upto 4779 were updated on 19-08-2013 in Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months:-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
Nifty got supports between 2nd support range at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and reversed as well as Pull Back Rally seen and its recent top formation at 5493.20 on 30-08-2013 but hurdles in the way of on going Pull Back Rally through following immediate resistances:-
1- 5490-5528
2- 5530-5605
Following Bullish formations also seen on Daily/Weekly charts and indicators:-
1- Bullish Hammer formation in last 2 weeks.
2- Weekly closing near the higher levels in last 2 weeks.
3- Last 2 weeks trading and closing near the lower Band of Daily and Weekly Bollonger Band.
4- Lower levels supports in last 11 sessions.
5- Daily oscillators are oversold and showing up moves indications
6- Weekly Stochastics has moved into oversold zone and showing up moves indications
More than 4% crash on 16-08-2013 and after that Nifty traded most time between 5118-5605 in last 11 sessions therefore final break out of this range will result next big moves. Although Daily oscillators are oversold and showing up moves indications but above mentioned good resistances are at higher levels also therefore more consolidation is required for any decisive up move. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5118-5605 in the coming week/weeks and prepare for next trend. As weekly indicators are not oversold and weekly MACD have moved below Zero line as well as Daily indicators have not shown positive divergence yet therefore down move are expected within last 11 sessions range(5118-5605).
As huge Bearish pattern formation in last 11 months on Daily and Weekly charts therefore expected that finally down moves will be seen below 5118 after follow up selling in the coming sessions and weeks but next week will remain most time range bound between 5118-5605 and Indian markets will prepare for next big Trend because both lower levels supports and higher levels selling in last 11 sessions.