Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 28 to Jun 01,2012)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-May-2012):-
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1- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
2- 66 Sessions corrective Wave-2 continuation.
3- Long and Intermediate term trends are down and Short term is sideways between 4789-4960.
4- Breaking down of 200-Day SMA and corrective Falling Channel(Bullish Flag).
5- Last 11 sessions range bound trading between 4789-4960.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Bearish Indian markets after breaking down of all crucial levels and last 11 sessions range bound trading between 4789-4960. As Indian markets are sideways for the last 11 sessions therefore it is confirm that some big moves are being cooked within it.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of 11 Sessions Intra Day Chart
(May 11to May 25,2012)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 11to May 25,2012):-
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1- Strong supports between 4789-4860
2- Strong Resistances between 4910-4960
3- Mixed Patterns between 4890-4934 on 25-05-2012
4- Last 11 Sessions trading between 4789-4960
Conclusions from 11 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Nifty sustained above 4789 amid most depressing national and internationl news flow and consolidated also between 4789-4860 therefore this range has developed as strong support. As good selling was also seen between 4910-4960 in previous sessions therefore strong resistances are also visible at higher levels.
It is clear that Indian markets requires more follow up consolidations/distribution for break out and sustaining beyond last 11 Sessions trading range(4789-4960).
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 28-05-2012
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-May-2012):-
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1- Support between 4890-4909
2- Selling between 4920-4934
3- Whole day upmoves in Rising Channel(Bearish Pattern).
4- Whole day trading between with mixed patterns between 4890-4934
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day upmoves but it should also be kept in mind that recovery from lower levels was on the back of following 3 positive news:-
1- More than 50 paisa recovery in Indian Rupee.
2- US Futures turned more than .40% up from negative zone.
3- All European markets were also in Green and some were more than 1% up.
As positive news flow led recovery therefore selling on the back of good news can not be ruled out.
Technically whole day upmoves in Rising Channel(Bearish Pattern) with lower levels intraday support and higher levels selling therefore final conclusion is mixed intraday patterns and requiring next moves confirmations through sustaining beyond intraday trading range(4890-4934).
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
As something big is being developed in last 11 sessions therefore Keys of next big moves and next Trends are hidden in last 11 sessions trading range(4789-4960), Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within it in next week. As break out and sustaining it beyond will give next big moves confirmations therefore firstly follow up consolidations/distribution will be decided through intraday charts formations in next week and sustaining beyond (4789-4960) will give following conclusions:-
1- Sustaining above 4960 will mean strong Pull Back Rally.
2- Sustaining below 4789 will mean sharp down moves to test following supports:-
a- 4635-4663
b- 4602-4624
c- 4560-4590
As strong supports have developed in last 11 days therefore expected that finally follow up consolidations will develop in next week and 11 days range will be broken out as well as strong Pull Back Rally will be seen above 4960.