Technical Analysis,Research
& Indian Markets Outlook
Nifty-EOD Chart(01-Dec-2011):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Pull Back Rally started from 4640.
2- It has almost tested 50% retracement level(5020) when made high at 5011.9 on 01-12-2011.
3- Gap Support between 5852-4917 on 01-12-2011.
Technical Positions of Indian Stock markets are as follows:-
Trends are as follows:-
1- Long term trend is down and will be up after sustaining above 200 Day SMA(Today is at 5345)
2- Intermediate term trend is down and will be up after sustaining above 55 Day SMA(Today is at 5019)
3- Short term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below mentioned first support range(4755)
Next resistances between 5000-5400 are as follows:-
1- 5000-5060
2- 5130-5225
3- 5260-5310
4- 5340-5365
Next Supports at lower levels of the on going pull back rally are as follows:-
1- 4755-4800
2- 4645-4720
Fibonacci Retracement Levels of on going up moves are as follows:-
13.0%- 4738
23.6%- 4819
27.0%- 4845
38.2%- 4930
50.0%- 5020
61.8%- 5109
70.7%- 5177
76.4%- 5220
78.6%- 5237
88.6%- 5313
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Rally started on 24-11-2011 from 4640 and its first target of 5000 was also updated on 28-11-2011 and following line was told in Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 29-12-2011:-
sustaining above 4870 will mean sharp moves toward 5000 because next resistance is above it.
Nifty tested 5000 on 01-12-2011 and retraced after faced resistance 1st support range. Long and Intermediate term trends are down,multiple resistances between 5000-5400 and market has to consolidate before any up move between this range. Just click following links to understand Indian markets long term technical positions;-
1- Pull Back Rally will continue in next week
2- Rally will contine within most Crucial Trend deciding Range
As last 13 months down moves charts structure is showing Falling Channel Correction pattern and trend reversal broadening pattern at the bottom as well as last 3 months range bound market therefore I am again repeating following lines which I told in Rally will contine within most Crucial Trend deciding Range:-
Almost 13 Months correction and finally previous 4 months range bound markets. As trend reversal Broadening Pattern formations at the bottom of correction therefore expected that much deeper correction will not be seen and any up moves from any point will finally prove impulsive Wave-5 toward all time high above 6357.10(on 08-01-2008).
This possibility can not be ruled out that the rally which started on 24-11-2011 from 4640 may cross all time high above 6357.10 in the coming year. As and when market will move up and cross next crucial levels then fate of on going rally will be decided according to break outs and next moves confirmations.
Market faced intraday resistance yesterday and require complete consolidation to cross multiple resistances between 5000-5365 and Long term up trend confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day SMA(Today is at 5345)
Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between yesterday trading range 4917-5011 and sustaining beyond this range will be next moves confirmation. As intraday consolidation patterns yesterday therefore possibility of crossing and sustaining above 5011 is high in the coming week.