Weekly Outlook(Dec 26 to Dec 30,2011)
Nifty-EOD Chart(23-Dec-2011):-
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1st impulsive wave begun on 27-10-2008 from 2252
2nd corrective wave begun on 12-06-2009 from 4693
3rd impulsive wave begun on 13-07-2009 from 3919
4th corrective wave begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338(2419 Points rally of Wave-3)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Above whole waves structure was completely at stake when Nifty slipped below 4693 but its survival signal after Nifty 2 days closing above 4693. If Nifty sustains above 4693 then it will be confirmation of last 3 years Waves structure survival and next moves of Indian markets will be understood accordingly.
All trends are down and will be up after sustaining above following levels:-
1- Short term trend will be up above 4840
2- Intermediate term trend will be up above 5099
3- Long term trend will be up above 5205(200 Day EMA level today)
Next immediate supports are as follows:-
1- 4635-4663
2- 4602-4624
2- 4560-4590
Next immediate Resistances are as follows:-
1- 4780-4838
2- 4928-4980
3- 5080-5098
Nifty-EOD Chart(23-Dec-2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 13 Months Falling Trend Line correction of Wave 4.
2- Side ways market between 4720-5229 in 91 Sessions.
3- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of correction.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
As trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in 91 sessions therefore it will certainly have power to reverse 13 months correction after breaking out above rising higher trend line.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Up moves have just begun 3 sessions before and sustaining above following levels are also required one by one for confirmation of a decisive rally as well as Wave 5 commencement:-
1- Sustaining above 4693(Top of Wave 1)
2- Sustaining above falling lower trend line of Broadening Pattern.
3- Sustaining above 4720(Lower level of 91 sessions side ways market)
4- Sustaining above 4840 for Short term trend turning up.
5- Sustaining above 5099 for Intermediate term trend turning up.
6- Sustaining above 200 Day EMA for Long term trend turning up.
7- Sustaining above Falling Trend line from the top of Wave 3 which has given resistances 6 times in last 13 months.
8- Sustaining above 5229(Higher level of 91 sessions side ways market)
9- Sustaining above rising higher trend line of Broadening Pattern.
Although many resistances are upto 6338 but sustaining above mentioned 9 Laxman Rekhas(Levels) will be confirmation of big strength and then blasting Bullish market will be expected above 9th level..
13(Fibonacci number) Months Correction of Wave 3
Wave 3 finished and 4th corrective wave begun on 05-11-2010 and it has completed 13 months. As 13 is a Fibonacci number therefore correction completion as well as trend reversal possibility in 13th corrective month will be possible. As 91 Sessions old trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation also at the bottom of 13 months correction therefore following Bullish possibilities are very much alive;-
1- Impulsive Wave 5 beginning after completion of Wave 4 and strong rally
2- Formtions of new all time highs in the coming year/years
Weekly Outlook(Dec 26 to Dec 30,2011)
More consolidation are required in the beginning of next week but good consolidations and base formation in previous week therefore previous begun Rally will remain continued and Nifty will counter above mentioned Resistance range and finally positive next week will be seen.