High volatility is a nature of Bearish markets and it is being seen today. As all the Asian and European markets are 0.75% to 2.6% weak therefore sentiment turned depressed and selling formations also developed at higher levels today. Expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook-2(20-08-2013)
Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013
1- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
2- some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow
As Indian Rupee weakened more than 2% between yesterday closing and today opening of Indian markets therefore Nifty crashed more than 100 points within first 2 minutes today but more than 100 points recovery from lower levels and last more than 3 hours trading within above mentioned Consolidation range(5360-5400)
Some up moves possibility was told yesterday and it was seen also today through more than 100 points lower levels recovery and now Nifty is preparing for next moves between 5360-5400. View is finally Bearish and high volatility is a nature of Bearish markets therefore lower levels recovery seen today and more Short Term up moves can not be ruled out also because no selling signals seen yet.
1- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
2- some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow
As Indian Rupee weakened more than 2% between yesterday closing and today opening of Indian markets therefore Nifty crashed more than 100 points within first 2 minutes today but more than 100 points recovery from lower levels and last more than 3 hours trading within above mentioned Consolidation range(5360-5400)
Some up moves possibility was told yesterday and it was seen also today through more than 100 points lower levels recovery and now Nifty is preparing for next moves between 5360-5400. View is finally Bearish and high volatility is a nature of Bearish markets therefore lower levels recovery seen today and more Short Term up moves can not be ruled out also because no selling signals seen yet.
Follow up moves within 5360-5400 and finally sustaining it beyond will be next Short Term Trend confirmations and should be firstly watched now.
Mid-session Outlook(20-08-2013)
As lower levels consolidations between 6360-5400 yesterday therefore good recovery from lower levels and trading between this range despite most depressing sentiment today morning due to crashing of Indian Rupee in last 2 hours.
Although view is Bearish but Short Term Indicators are oversold therefore sustaining beyond 6360-5400 should be firstly watched for next very Short Term Trend confirmations.
Although view is Bearish but Short Term Indicators are oversold therefore sustaining beyond 6360-5400 should be firstly watched for next very Short Term Trend confirmations.
Post-open Outlook(20-08-2013)
Indian Rupee further weakened by more than 1% today therefore sentiment turned mosted depressed because Indian Rupee traded more than more than 1% weak after the closing of Indian markets yesterday also and resultant huge gap down opening again today. Following line was told in Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months:-
As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
Most Bearish huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation developed in last 11 Months and its neckline is at 5477.20 which is between next gap support(5447-5526). As all trends are down and such huge Bearish pattern neckline broken down also therefore high possibility of sustaining below gap support lowest(5447).
As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
Pre-open Outlook(20-08-2013)
Although Indian markets showed consolidations patterns formations yesterday but Indian Rupee weakened more than 1% after the closing of Indian markets yesterday therefore its reaction will be seen in the beginning of today market through weak opening.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves near about yesterday trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465.
2-Correction continuation after sustaining below 5360 and its possibility is high because all trends are down as well as sentiment is weak today morning due to Indian Rupee trading at all time low and US market weak closing yesterday.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves near about yesterday trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465.
2-Correction continuation after sustaining below 5360 and its possibility is high because all trends are down as well as sentiment is weak today morning due to Indian Rupee trading at all time low and US market weak closing yesterday.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
3- Whole day actual trading between 5360-5465
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although Gap down opening was not seen but almost 45 points down moves within first 5 seconds. As whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and consolidation seen at lower levels also therefor some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow after 281 points sharp down moves in last 2 sessions.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves between today trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465
2-Short Term down trend after sustaining below 5360
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
3- Whole day actual trading between 5360-5465
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although Gap down opening was not seen but almost 45 points down moves within first 5 seconds. As whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and consolidation seen at lower levels also therefor some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow after 281 points sharp down moves in last 2 sessions.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves between today trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465
2-Short Term down trend after sustaining below 5360
Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Aug 19 to Aug 23,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
10 Pull Back Rally termination and bottom formation at 5496.05 on 16-08-2013.
Waves Structure of 'ABC' Correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
2- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
4- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
5- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
6- Pull Back Rally top formation at 5754.55 on 14-08-2013.
10 Pull Back Rally termination and bottom formation at 5496.05 on 16-08-2013.
11 Months huge most Bearish Head and Shoulders patterns formation from 14-09-2012 to 16-08-2013
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation
2- Neckline at 5477.20
3- Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5776)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 13 to Aug 16,2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 13 and 14 Aug 2013.
2- 2 Days up moves reversed in 1 hour on 14 Aug 2013
3- Follow up selling after 1st hour huge fall
3- 3 Sessions actual trading between.
Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although strong up moves on 13 and 14 Aug 2013 but in Bearish Rising Channel therefore we told:-
1- In Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-08-2013):-
Nifty will not be able to cross next resistance range(5740-5765) and fresh down moves will begin after development of follow up selling in the coming sessions.
2-In Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-08-2013):-
1- Bearish Rising Channels therefore high possibility of today trading range breaking down
2-once sustaining below today lowest(5690) will mean termination of on going Pull Back Rally
As 2 sessions up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore Nifty whole 2 sessions up moves become zero in first hour and Nifty formed 5578 at 10:11 AM on 16-08-2013. As was told in both above mentioned previous sessions same happened and down moves begun after development of follow up selling as well as Nifty reversed from 5754 and could not cross 5765.
Follow up selling was also seen after 1st hour sharp fall on 16-08-2013 therefore intraday charts of last Friday are suggesting more down moves in the coming sessions.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
All trends turned down after huge fall on 16-08-2013 and Indian markets are in Bear phase. Correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was told many times in previous Weekly Analysis and it is being continuously seen. just click Weekly Outlook for:-
1- Retracement levels whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45
2- Detailed analysis of Waves structure.
Most Bearish huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation developed in last 11 Months and its neckline is at 5477.20 which is between next gap support(5447-5526). As all trends are down and such huge Bearish pattern neckline broken down also therefore high possibility of sustaining below gap support lowest(5447).
As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
It is confirm that Indian markets are in Bear phase and Economic Outlook is also gloomy in the next months as well as political uncertainty can not be ruled out after next General Elections therefore Indian markets will remain in the grip of Bears. Pull Back and Relief rallies will be seen after regular intervals after intraday or 1/2 day consolidations but until complete consolidation will not complete on Intraday,EOD and Weekly charts till then Long Term Trend will not reverse.
Bear Market Trading Strategy
Mouth water lower levels of good stocks nowadays but it should also be kept in mind that Stocks levels remain different in Bull and Bear markets and present levels are Bear markets rates and may be more down also after Bear markets deepening. "Buying in falling markets is like catching Falling Knief resultant one's hand full of one's own Blood" therefore just wait before any investment and get confirmation of bottom formation as well as consolidation completion on Daily charts. Firstly buying should be done for Short or Intermediate Term and should be converted into Long Term only after stock sustaining above Long Term decider 200 Day EMA otherwise must be squared up.
Bounce Back or Pull Back Rallies may be seen any day after lower levels intraday supports and 2/3 hours consolidations because Bear Markets remains highly volatile therefore both side(up and down) trading opportunities will be seen in good amount.
Analysis of "last 11 months huge Bearish Pattern" with Detailed Weekly Analysis of EOD/Intraday Charts will be updated during trading hours today
As follow up selling was also seen after 1st hour sharp fall on 16-08-2013 therefore intraday charts of last Friday are suggesting more down moves in the coming sessions.
Live Proofs of our Bearish Views and Trading Calls on 14-08-2013 before 4% Crash of Indian Stock Markets
NIFTY-Aug Put Option(5600)-Buy-Positional-SL-19-TGT-94-CMP-39(Lalit39)
When Indian markets were trading at the highest of the day then also we were expecting down moves on 16-08-2013 therefore sent following SMS to our paid clients at 03:21 PM on 14-08-2013 :-
NIFTY-Aug PE(5600)-Bought on 14-08-2013-Just hold and carry over to 16-08-2013(Lalit39)
As we always talk with those proofs which no one can deny therefore updating following picture of above SMS sent to our paid clients:-
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| Just click on above picture for enlarged view of those SMS which were sent to paid clients |
Miraculous Bearish Prediction of Nifty on 13-08-2013 only in this Blog
Who told in whole India that:-
Nifty will not be able to cross next resistance range(5740-5765) and fresh down moves will begin after development of follow up selling in the coming sessions.
Only we told above line at 10:35:00 PM on 13-08-2013 and Nifty could not cross 5765 as well as reversed after formation the high at 5754.55 on 14-08-2013. Just click following topic link and verify above 100% accurate prediction on yours own.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-08-2013)
Just click following topic links also for more proofs of our previous Bearish Outlooks:-
1- Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-08-2013)
2- Mid-session Outlook(14-08-2013)
If unable to read text in above SMS picture then:-
1- Firstly click on above SMS picture and enlarge it.
2- Save picture on yours desktop.
3- Open and again enlarge the picture in Windows Picture Viewer.
Only 2 following information are deleted in above SMS Picture due to official secrecy rules:-
1- Numbers of sent SMS.
2- SMS sending Website name.
We always talk with only those proofs which no one can deny therefore live proofs have been updated and even though if anyone has any doubt then may call us and then he will be given the Mobile Numbers of those who enjoyed profits from any part in India.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling at higher levels
2- Lower levels supports.
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5690-5794
Although whole day up moves after lower levels supports and closing near the higher levels of the day but up moves in Bearish Rising Channels and higher levels selling patterns formations also therefore valid break out of today trading range(5690-5794) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. As both higher levels selling and up moves in Bearish Rising Channels therefore high possibility of today trading range breaking down and once sustaining below today lowest(5690) will mean termination of on going Pull Back Rally because Bearish patterns were seen on 13-08-2013 also through Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling at higher levels
2- Lower levels supports.
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5690-5794
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day up moves after lower levels supports and closing near the higher levels of the day but up moves in Bearish Rising Channels and higher levels selling patterns formations also therefore valid break out of today trading range(5690-5794) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. As both higher levels selling and up moves in Bearish Rising Channels therefore high possibility of today trading range breaking down and once sustaining below today lowest(5690) will mean termination of on going Pull Back Rally because Bearish patterns were seen on 13-08-2013 also through Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
Mid-session Outlook(14-08-2013)
Pull Back Rally continuation and most time positive market today but intraday charts are showing selling indications today. As some supports also seen at lower levels therefore sustaining below today lowest(5690) should be watched for on going rally termination confirmations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-08-2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
2- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
3- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
4- Wave-C(5486.85 on 07-08-2013)
5- Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5779)
6- Pull Back Rally continuation and its recent high formations at 5704.75 on 13-08-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Pull Back Rally continuation after Wave-C completion at 5486.85 and its recent high formations at 5704.75 today. Retracement levels of Wave-C are as follows and these levels will decide the length of on going Pull back rally:-
23.6%- 5629
38.2%- 5717
50.0%- 5789
61.8%- 5861
76.4%- 5949
Next resistances are as follows:-
1-5680-5720
2-5740-5765
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Whole day continuous slow up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5601-5704
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As Pull Back Rally continuation and whole day continuous slow up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore sustaining above today higher levels is firstly required for on going rally further continuation confirmations.
Long and Intermediate Term Trends are down and Short Term Trend turned up after Pull Back Rally continuation. 38.2%(5717) Retracement has been almost completed after rally top formation at 5704.75 today. 50.0% Retracement level is at 5789 and following crucial levels are near about it:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5779)
2- Next resistance range 5740-5765
At present only Pull Back Rally is being considered and being expected that it will fuse between 5704-5789 because resistances at higher levels and today up moves were strong Global cues led as well as whole day up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel today.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
2- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
3- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
4- Wave-C(5486.85 on 07-08-2013)
5- Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5779)
6- Pull Back Rally continuation and its recent high formations at 5704.75 on 13-08-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Pull Back Rally continuation after Wave-C completion at 5486.85 and its recent high formations at 5704.75 today. Retracement levels of Wave-C are as follows and these levels will decide the length of on going Pull back rally:-
23.6%- 5629
38.2%- 5717
50.0%- 5789
61.8%- 5861
76.4%- 5949
Next resistances are as follows:-
1-5680-5720
2-5740-5765
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Aug-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Whole day continuous slow up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5601-5704
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As Pull Back Rally continuation and whole day continuous slow up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore sustaining above today higher levels is firstly required for on going rally further continuation confirmations.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Long and Intermediate Term Trends are down and Short Term Trend turned up after Pull Back Rally continuation. 38.2%(5717) Retracement has been almost completed after rally top formation at 5704.75 today. 50.0% Retracement level is at 5789 and following crucial levels are near about it:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5779)
2- Next resistance range 5740-5765
At present only Pull Back Rally is being considered and being expected that it will fuse between 5704-5789 because resistances at higher levels and today up moves were strong Global cues led as well as whole day up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel today.
As sentiment turned strong therefore some up moves can not be ruled out but expected that Nifty will not be able to cross next resistance range(5740-5765) and fresh down moves will begin after development of follow up selling in the coming sessions.
Pre-Closing Outlook(13-08-2013)
Strong rally in Global markets today through:-
1- Most Asian markets closing near the highest of the day.
2- 4 Asian markets closing between 1.05% up to 2.57% up.
3- Dow's Futures is positive since opening and more than 60 points for the last 1 hour.
4- All rhe European markets are up from 0.41% to 0.85%
Sentiment boosted and resultant Indian markets participation in Global markets party today. Next resistances are as follows:-
1-5680-5720
2-5740-5765
1- Most Asian markets closing near the highest of the day.
2- 4 Asian markets closing between 1.05% up to 2.57% up.
3- Dow's Futures is positive since opening and more than 60 points for the last 1 hour.
4- All rhe European markets are up from 0.41% to 0.85%
Sentiment boosted and resultant Indian markets participation in Global markets party today. Next resistances are as follows:-
1-5680-5720
2-5740-5765
Nifty is trading between 1st resistance range and sustaining above both above resistance ranges will be watched for reconsideration of Long Term trend through sustaining beyond 200-Day EMA(today at 5780)
Mid-session Outlook(13-08-2013)
Sentiment was most depressed today morning due to following reasons:-
1- Below expectation ONGC and SBI quarterly results yesterday.
2- Indian Rupee weakened 33 Paise within first 12 minutes ie 09:12 AM(before the opening of Indian Stock markets).
3- Most disappointing IIP numbers after the closing of Indian markets yesterday.
As US and European markets closed flat after good recovery from lower levels yesterday and all the Asian markets were positive as well as some Asian markets were trading with very good gains therefore strong recovery from lower levels was seen today. Certainly surprising rally today after ignoring most negative local cues and now Nifty is trading just below next resistance range(5680-5720),now sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next Intermediate Term Trend confirmations.
1- Below expectation ONGC and SBI quarterly results yesterday.
2- Indian Rupee weakened 33 Paise within first 12 minutes ie 09:12 AM(before the opening of Indian Stock markets).
3- Most disappointing IIP numbers after the closing of Indian markets yesterday.
As US and European markets closed flat after good recovery from lower levels yesterday and all the Asian markets were positive as well as some Asian markets were trading with very good gains therefore strong recovery from lower levels was seen today. Certainly surprising rally today after ignoring most negative local cues and now Nifty is trading just below next resistance range(5680-5720),now sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next Intermediate Term Trend confirmations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(13-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1-Support between 5557-5571
2-More than 4 hours Up moves in Broadening pattern.
3-Selling between 5620-5644
4-Broadening pattern broken down
5- Whole day actual trading between 5557-5644
Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 12 to Aug 16,2013):-
indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive.
Pull Back Rally seen in Broadening pattern after lower levels supports but Broadening pattern broken down after higher levels good selling and emergence of last Wednesday started Pull Back Rally termination possibility. As higher levels good selling therefore next up move will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5644.10)
Next resistance range is between 5680-5720 and intraday selling seen below it today,follow up selling tomorrow and slipping below today lowest(5557) will mean will mean high possibility of on going correction continuation after completion of Pull Back Rally today because higher levels some selling was seen in last 2 sessions of previous week also.
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1-Support between 5557-5571
2-More than 4 hours Up moves in Broadening pattern.
3-Selling between 5620-5644
4-Broadening pattern broken down
5- Whole day actual trading between 5557-5644
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 12 to Aug 16,2013):-
indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive.
Pull Back Rally seen in Broadening pattern after lower levels supports but Broadening pattern broken down after higher levels good selling and emergence of last Wednesday started Pull Back Rally termination possibility. As higher levels good selling therefore next up move will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5644.10)
Next resistance range is between 5680-5720 and intraday selling seen below it today,follow up selling tomorrow and slipping below today lowest(5557) will mean will mean high possibility of on going correction continuation after completion of Pull Back Rally today because higher levels some selling was seen in last 2 sessions of previous week also.
Mid-session Outlook-2(12-08-2013)
Emergence of selling signals in last 1 hour intraday charts and next up move will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5644.10)
Mid-session Outlook(12-08-2013)
Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 12 to Aug 16,2013):-
1-indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive.
2-valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations
1-indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive.
2-valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations
Pull Back Rally continuation after valid break out above 5577 and sustaining beyond next resistance range(5680-5720) will be watched now for its completion/continuation.
Post-open Outlook-2(12-08-2013)
Indian Rupee is highly volatile today and resultant Indian markets are also highly volatile since opening today. Although finally down moves are expected but sustaining beyond 5577 should be firstly watched today for next Short term trend confirmations.
Post-open Outlook(12-08-2013)
Some up moves were seen immediately after gap up opening today but could not sustain at higher levels and slipped below 5577 because Selling was seen at higher levels on 08-08-2013. Firstly sustaining beyond 5577 should be should be watched today for next Short term trend confirmations and high possibility of sustaining below 5577.
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 12 to Aug 16,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
10 Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5782)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 07 & Aug 08,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- Lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations on 07-08-2013
2- Selling at higher levels on 07-08-2013
3- Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4- Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising channel on 08-08-2013.
5- Selling at higher levels on 08-08-2013
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5486-5577
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Short Term up moves but with complete mixed patterns formations in last 2 Sessions because lower levels supports and higher levels selling as well as both bullish and bearish patterns formations also therefore valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations.
Whole waves structure from 20-12-2011 with following conclusive lines were updated on 04-08-2013 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013):-
1- Indian markets are on the verge entering into Bear phase through confirmation of sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790).
2- Firstly some up moves in the beginning of next week and finally down moves are expected because Wave-c continuation.
When previous closing of Nifty was at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 then following line was told on 29-07-2013 in Last hope for Bulls at 5792
As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was expected therefore following retracement levels were updated on 31-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013):-
13.0%-6008
23.6%-5828
27.0%-5770
38.2%-5580
50.0%-5380
61.8%-5179
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Next supports are as follows:-
1- Gap support between 5447.45-5526.95
2- 5210-5270
3- 5075-5140
4- 4779-4880
Corrective Wave-c continuation and all trends are down but indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive and complete selling patterns are required for sustaining below the lowest(5486.85) of on going correction. Although some selling was also seen in last 2 sessions of previous week but not sufficient and more selling is required for decisive down moves.
valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations and expected that finally correction will remain continued below 5486.85. Let market get support and complete consolidation develop on daily charts minimum then trend reversal will be considered and will be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 3 years.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
10 Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5782)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 07 & Aug 08,2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations on 07-08-2013
2- Selling at higher levels on 07-08-2013
3- Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4- Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising channel on 08-08-2013.
5- Selling at higher levels on 08-08-2013
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5486-5577
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Short Term up moves but with complete mixed patterns formations in last 2 Sessions because lower levels supports and higher levels selling as well as both bullish and bearish patterns formations also therefore valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Whole waves structure from 20-12-2011 with following conclusive lines were updated on 04-08-2013 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013):-
1- Indian markets are on the verge entering into Bear phase through confirmation of sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790).
2- Firstly some up moves in the beginning of next week and finally down moves are expected because Wave-c continuation.
As was told on 04-08-2013 same happened and Nifty slipped 191 points in previous week and weekly closing was 112 points down as well as confirmation of Indian markets entering into Bear phase.
When previous closing of Nifty was at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 then following line was told on 29-07-2013 in Last hope for Bulls at 5792
As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
Correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was told 2 weeks before and that was seen also with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013.
As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was expected therefore following retracement levels were updated on 31-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013):-
13.0%-6008
23.6%-5828
27.0%-5770
38.2%-5580
50.0%-5380
61.8%-5179
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Next supports are as follows:-
1- Gap support between 5447.45-5526.95
2- 5210-5270
3- 5075-5140
4- 4779-4880
Corrective Wave-c continuation and all trends are down but indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves possibility can not be ruled out. As some supports were also seen at lower levels in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore its possibility is still alive and complete selling patterns are required for sustaining below the lowest(5486.85) of on going correction. Although some selling was also seen in last 2 sessions of previous week but not sufficient and more selling is required for decisive down moves.
valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(5486-5577) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations and expected that finally correction will remain continued below 5486.85. Let market get support and complete consolidation develop on daily charts minimum then trend reversal will be considered and will be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 3 years.
Pre-Closing Outlook(08-08-2013)
Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves were told in all previous outlooks and it was seen today but following line was also told and should be kept in mind:-
valid break out of today trading range(5486-5561) should also be watched for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations
Mid-session Outlook(08-08-2013)
When all around negative news flow then following lines were told yesterday in Mid-session Outlook-2:-
As market ignored all most depressing news and recovered from lower levels after getting supports therefore until complete selling patterns will not develop till then next down moves will not be considered.
When US markets were in deep Red then following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook:-
Certainly Indian markets out performed and intraday patterns are showing above mentioned 1 to 3 positive formations therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves hopes turned alive today and we are seeing its high possibility also.
High possibility of Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves was told and Nifty is more than 0.75% up today as well as up moves continuation is expected and once sustaining above 5561 will mean strong up moves.
As market ignored all most depressing news and recovered from lower levels after getting supports therefore until complete selling patterns will not develop till then next down moves will not be considered.
When US markets were in deep Red then following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook:-
Certainly Indian markets out performed and intraday patterns are showing above mentioned 1 to 3 positive formations therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves hopes turned alive today and we are seeing its high possibility also.
High possibility of Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves was told and Nifty is more than 0.75% up today as well as up moves continuation is expected and once sustaining above 5561 will mean strong up moves.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(08-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations
2- Higher tops(T1 to T4) and higher Bottoms(B1 to B4) formations.
3- Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4- Selling at higher levels
5- Whole day actual trading between 5486-5561
Although closing near the lower levels of the day with higher levels some selling also but lower levels supports,higher tops and higher Bottoms formations and Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel were also seen therefore view will not be Bearish for Short Term Trend. Benchmark Indices closed 0.42% down but got supports at lower levels also despite all around following negative news flow:-
1- Indian Rupee weakness since opening today.
2- Indo Pak Border tension escalation.
3- Dow's Futures was more than 50 points down almost whole day.
4- Most Asian markets closed more than 1% down
Certainly Indian markets out performed and intraday patterns are showing above mentioned 1 to 3 positive formations therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves hopes turned alive today and we are seeing its high possibility also.
As market slipped in last hour and it may be a signal of loosing strength and weakness also therefore precaution is required and valid break out of today trading range(5486-5561) should also be watched for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations
2- Higher tops(T1 to T4) and higher Bottoms(B1 to B4) formations.
3- Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4- Selling at higher levels
5- Whole day actual trading between 5486-5561
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although closing near the lower levels of the day with higher levels some selling also but lower levels supports,higher tops and higher Bottoms formations and Last half hour down moves in Bullish Falling Channel were also seen therefore view will not be Bearish for Short Term Trend. Benchmark Indices closed 0.42% down but got supports at lower levels also despite all around following negative news flow:-
1- Indian Rupee weakness since opening today.
2- Indo Pak Border tension escalation.
3- Dow's Futures was more than 50 points down almost whole day.
4- Most Asian markets closed more than 1% down
Certainly Indian markets out performed and intraday patterns are showing above mentioned 1 to 3 positive formations therefore Pull Back Rally/Short Term up moves hopes turned alive today and we are seeing its high possibility also.
As market slipped in last hour and it may be a signal of loosing strength and weakness also therefore precaution is required and valid break out of today trading range(5486-5561) should also be watched for next Short Term Trend trend confirmations
Mid-session Outlook-2(07-08-2013)
Oscillators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally is being seen after lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations despite all around following negative news flow:-
1- Indian Rupee weakness since opening today.
2- Indo Pak Border tension.
3- Global markets weakness
As market ignored all most depressing news and recovered from lower levels after getting supports therefore until complete selling patterns will not develop till then next down moves will not be considered. Last more than 1 hour up moves are not showing strength therefore it is indication of weakness and today trading range(5488-5541) valid break out will be next trend confirmations
1- Indian Rupee weakness since opening today.
2- Indo Pak Border tension.
3- Global markets weakness
As market ignored all most depressing news and recovered from lower levels after getting supports therefore until complete selling patterns will not develop till then next down moves will not be considered. Last more than 1 hour up moves are not showing strength therefore it is indication of weakness and today trading range(5488-5541) valid break out will be next trend confirmations
Mid-session Outlook(07-08-2013)
As US markets closed weak yesterday and Dow's Futures was also more than 40 points down today morning therefore sentiment was depressed and all the Asian markets are weak,resultant Indian markets slipped immediately after opening.
Global markets are sharp down and Indian Rupee is also weakening but Oscillators are oversold therefore some bounce seen from lower levels but until Nifty will not consolidate completely till then any decisive up move will not be seen and only Pull Back rally will be considered.
Detailed analysis of EOD charts have already been updated in previous topics.
Global markets are sharp down and Indian Rupee is also weakening but Oscillators are oversold therefore some bounce seen from lower levels but until Nifty will not consolidate completely till then any decisive up move will not be seen and only Pull Back rally will be considered.
Detailed analysis of EOD charts have already been updated in previous topics.
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Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(07-08-2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5521.80 on 06-08-2013
Rally begun after 13 Months correction completion on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15 and this rally terminated after 5 waves structure completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 as well as 'ABC' correction commenced. As correction started after 5 waves completion and Long Term Trend turning down confirmations also through sustaining below 200-Day EMA(today at 5786) therefore entering into Bearish phase and correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is being seen and following retracement should be kept in mind:-
13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level Retracment completed)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Next Supports are as follows:-
1- 5490-5520
2- 5220-5260
3- 5080-5180
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5521.80 on 06-08-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Rally begun after 13 Months correction completion on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15 and this rally terminated after 5 waves structure completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 as well as 'ABC' correction commenced. As correction started after 5 waves completion and Long Term Trend turning down confirmations also through sustaining below 200-Day EMA(today at 5786) therefore entering into Bearish phase and correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is being seen and following retracement should be kept in mind:-
13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level Retracment completed)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Next Supports are as follows:-
1- 5490-5520
2- 5220-5260
3- 5080-5180
Corrective Wave-c continuation,no indication of its completion yet and until complete consolidation will not happen on Daily and intraday charts till then any reversal will not be seen but some up moves/Bounce back/Pull Back Rallies can not be ruled out after some intraday consolidations because Oscillators have move into Oversold zone.
Pre-Closing Outlook(06-08-2013)
When Indian markets recovered from lower levels and Nifty was trading above 5600 then following line was told at 01:09 PM today in Mid-session Outlook:-
As we told same happened and Nifty moved down more than 80 points after our more down moves projection. Indian markets are in Bear phase and until complete consolidation will not happen on Daily and intraday charts till then any reversal will not be seen but some up moves/Bounce back/Pull Back Rallies can not be ruled out after some intraday consolidations.
Corrective Wave-c continuation and more down moves are still expected.
As we told same happened and Nifty moved down more than 80 points after our more down moves projection. Indian markets are in Bear phase and until complete consolidation will not happen on Daily and intraday charts till then any reversal will not be seen but some up moves/Bounce back/Pull Back Rallies can not be ruled out after some intraday consolidations.
Mid-session Outlook(06-08-2013)
Following line was told on 04-08-2013 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013)
As was told same happened and finally sharp down moves are being seen today after some up moves in first 2 hours yesterday.
(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013)
Firstly some up moves in the beginning of next week and finally down moves are expected because Wave-c continuation.
As was told same happened and finally sharp down moves are being seen today after some up moves in first 2 hours yesterday.
Corrective Wave-c continuation and more down moves are still expected.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(06-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Support between 5665-5675
2- Selling between 5709-5721
3- Last more than 3 hour trading with mixed patterns trading between 5675-5698
4- Whole day actual trading between 5665-5721
Higher levels selling patterns,lower and levels supports and last more than 3 hours trading with mixed patterns therefore no clear pattern formations on 05-08-2013. Higher levels selling and lower levels supports in last 2 sessions therefore sustaining beyond 5649-5721 will be be watched today for next moves confirmations.
Pre-open Outlook(06-08-2013)
All the Asian markets are in Red and some are more than 1% down therefore sentiment is depressed today morning and gap down opening will be seen. Confirmation of sustaining below 5649 will mean sharp fall because corrective Wave-c continuation.
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1- Support between 5665-5675
2- Selling between 5709-5721
3- Last more than 3 hour trading with mixed patterns trading between 5675-5698
4- Whole day actual trading between 5665-5721
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Higher levels selling patterns,lower and levels supports and last more than 3 hours trading with mixed patterns therefore no clear pattern formations on 05-08-2013. Higher levels selling and lower levels supports in last 2 sessions therefore sustaining beyond 5649-5721 will be be watched today for next moves confirmations.
Pre-open Outlook(06-08-2013)
All the Asian markets are in Red and some are more than 1% down therefore sentiment is depressed today morning and gap down opening will be seen. Confirmation of sustaining below 5649 will mean sharp fall because corrective Wave-c continuation.
Pre-Closing Outlook(05-08-2013)
Whole day sideways trading with selling patterns formations at higher levels but lower levels supports last Friday also therefore sustaining beyond 5649-5721 will be be watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook(05-08-2013)
4 Sessions trading between 5649-5808 with NSEL news led high volatility,following supports and resistances:-
1- Supports between 5649-5680
2- Resistances between 5730-5768
3- Resistances between 5782-5808
As Bullish Falling Channel last Friday therefore some up moves were expected and being seen today but follow up consolidation is required for crossing next resistances and next decisive up moves above 5808. It should also be kept in mind that selling in the coming hours will mean deeper correction after sustaining below 5649.
1- Supports between 5649-5680
2- Resistances between 5730-5768
3- Resistances between 5782-5808
As Bullish Falling Channel last Friday therefore some up moves were expected and being seen today but follow up consolidation is required for crossing next resistances and next decisive up moves above 5808. It should also be kept in mind that selling in the coming hours will mean deeper correction after sustaining below 5649.
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Aug 05 to Aug 08,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (02-Aug-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-c continuation with bottom formation at 5649.00 on 02-08-2013
10 Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down and and almost confirmation of Long Term Trend turning down after after last 4 sessions closing below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790),once confirmation will mean entering into Bear phase.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Aug-2013):-
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1- Whole day down moves within Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5649-5745
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As whole day down moves within Bullish Falling Channel therefore indications of up moves despite 0.87% negative closing last Friday.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Wave-c continuation and Indian markets are on the verge entering into Bear phase through confirmation of sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5790). As last 8 sessions continuous down moves therefore Short Term indicators have move into oversold zone and signalling some up moves/ bounce Back/Pull Back Rally as well as its possibility is alive because Bullish Falling Channel last Friday.
Firstly some up moves in the beginning of next week and finally down moves are expected because Wave-c continuation.
Pre-Closing Outlook-2(02-08-2013)
Nifty was trading at 5697 at 01:57 PM and at that time Rupee was trading at 60.75 but as soon as Rupee slipped 28 paise within 1 hour then Nifty immediately responded and down 50 points to 5649. As today breaking down moves are negative news led therefore sustaining below 5677 should be firstly watched in the next week for fresh down moves confirmations.
Pre-Closing Outlook(02-08-2013)
As soon as Rupee formed new intraday low the Nifty slipped below 5677 and it strong indication of fresh down moves in the next week.
Mid-session Outlook-3(02-08-2013)
As whole day without force down moves and it is an Bullish signal therefore sustaining below 5677 should be watched for next decisive down moves confirmations.
Mid-session Outlook-2(02-08-2013)
Nifty slipped below 5712 but sustaining it below should be firstly watched now and it should also be kept in mind that slipping below 5677 will be confirmation of fresh sharp down moves.
Mid-session Outlook(02-08-2013)
As Indian Rupee is down by 35 paise today therefore sentiment is weak and Indian markets slipped as well as traded in Red but today down moves have formed Bullish falling channel in last 1 hour therefore view is cautious despite falling Rupee. Just watch for valid break out of 5712-5769 because Nifty traded last 4 hours within this range yesterday with mixed patterns formations and today also traded most time within this range.
Post-open Outlook(02-08-2013)
As lower levels good consolidations in previous 2 sessions therefore Positive opening today but Indian Rupee is weak by 19 paisa in early morning trades therefore sentiment is depressed and firstly sustaining beyond 5712-5769 should be watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(02-08-2013)
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1- Selling between 5785-5808
2- Support between 5682-5720
3- Mixed Patterns between 5712-5769 in last 4 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5682-5808
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
NSEL news led confusion and resultant highly volatile market in first 2 hours,firstly crashing from higher levels after some selling but lower levels supports also seen today. Lower levels supports between 5677-5720 yesterday and follow up support seen between this range therefore strengthening of supports and base formation today and until Nifty will not sustain below 5677 till then next down moves will not be considered.
Corrective Wave-C continuation but Very Short Term up moves/Bounce back/Pull Back Rally can not be ruled out after lower levels suppots and its possibility is very much alive because lower levels supports in previous 2 sessions. Last 4 hours trading between 5712-5769 with mixed Patterns therefore valid break out of this range is next Short Term Trend decider and should be firstly watched tomorrow, As consolidation patterns seen within this range therefore high possibility of sustaining above 5769 and Pull Back Rally continuation.
Mid-session Outlook-3(01-08-2013)
NSEL news led high volatality in first 3 hours today with supports after supports and consolidations at lower levels yesterday therefore until today lowest (5677) will not be broken down till then next down moves will not be considered. As some selling was also seen at higher levels today therefore today highest (5808) is next resistance and expected that Nifty will prepare for next immediate moves between 5677-5808 and valid break out of this range should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations because technical positions reverses in today like news led high volatality.
Mid-session Outlook-2(01-08-2013)
Nifty recovered 65 points from lower levels within 15 minutes after loosing more than 130 points within first 2 hours. It is called huge volatility for cutting of small traders both side stop losses and will be better to wait for stabilising of market and taking decisive trading positions.
Mid-session Outlook(01-08-2013)
Corrective Wave-C continuation and Pull Back Rally immediately fused after strong recovery today therefore it is clear weakness signal As consolidation and lower levels supports between 5677-5720 yesterday therefore market will trade within this range,market could could not sustain at higher levels and Corrective Wave-C continuation therefore slipping below 5677 after follow up selling between 5677-5720 can not be ruled out now.
Post-open Outlook(01-08-2013)
Only consolidations and Pull Back Rally was told in all 3 previous Outlooks and Nifty is 63 points up today. Corrective Wave-C continuation but Pull Back Rallies are its part and being seen today,let it complete and fresh selling develop then next down moves after Pull Back Rally completion will be considered.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(01-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jul-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- First 4 hours lower levels supports and consolidations between 5677-5720
2- Last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 4726-5751
3- Whole day actual trading between 5677-5751
As lower levels supports and consolidations therefore some recovery from lower levels but last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 5677-5751 also. Correction continuation but emergence of Pull Back Rally possibility today and firstly sustaining beyond 5677-5751 should be watched tomorrow for Pull Back Rally beginning confirmations.
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1- First 4 hours lower levels supports and consolidations between 5677-5720
2- Last more than 1 hour trading with mixed Patterns between 4726-5751
3- Whole day actual trading between 5677-5751
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Mid-session Outlook-2(31-07-2013)
Although Nifty was more than 1% down but intraday patterns were showing consolidation indications therefore valid break out of 5679-5720 was told for next immediate moves confirmations in previous Outlook and now Nifty moved above 5720. If sustains above 5720 then Pull Back Rally will be considered after more than 400 points correction in 6 sessions.
Mid-session Outlook(31-07-2013)
As Indian Rupee further weakened today therefore Indian markets slipped after gap down opening but some recovery also after lower levels supports. Indian markets will react on FOMC announcements tomorrow and preparing today for those moves.
Nifty is more than 1% down and trading between 5679-5720 with consolidation indications therefore mixed signals and valid break out of mentioned range will be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Let next moves preparation and intraday charts formation complete then will be updated according to final conclusions.
Nifty is more than 1% down and trading between 5679-5720 with consolidation indications therefore mixed signals and valid break out of mentioned range will be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.
Let next moves preparation and intraday charts formation complete then will be updated according to final conclusions.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jul-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- 6229.45 on 20-05-2013(Rally completion after 5 Waves completion and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) broken down on 30-07-2013.
Whole rally from 4531.15 to 6229.45 and its correction with Waves structure was updated on 29-07-2013 in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792" and Following lines were also told:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and previous closing is well above it at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 therefore Long Term Trend is up but corrective Wave-c continuation and Short Term Trend is down as well as Intermediate Term Trend will be down after closing below 5888.
2- As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
Nifty closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) yesterday and sustaining below it will mean entering into Bearish phase as well as its possibility is high now. As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is expected therefore following retracement should be kept in mind:-
13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Correction continuation and Bounce Back/Pull Back Rally may be seen after some intraday supports or minor consolidations but until complete consolidation on Daily charts will not happen till then its completion will not be considered.
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- 6229.45 on 20-05-2013(Rally completion after 5 Waves completion and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) broken down on 30-07-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Whole rally from 4531.15 to 6229.45 and its correction with Waves structure was updated on 29-07-2013 in "Last hope for Bulls at 5792" and Following lines were also told:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and previous closing is well above it at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 therefore Long Term Trend is up but corrective Wave-c continuation and Short Term Trend is down as well as Intermediate Term Trend will be down after closing below 5888.
2- As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
Nifty closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(5792) yesterday and sustaining below it will mean entering into Bearish phase as well as its possibility is high now. As correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 is expected therefore following retracement should be kept in mind:-
13.0%-6008(Retraced)
23.6%-5828(Retraced)
27.0%-5770(Retraced)
38.2%-5580(Crucial Level)
50.0%-5380(Crucial Level)
61.8%-5179(Crucial Level)
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724
Correction continuation and Bounce Back/Pull Back Rally may be seen after some intraday supports or minor consolidations but until complete consolidation on Daily charts will not happen till then its completion will not be considered.
Now corrective Wave-C continuation therefore down moves are expected after development of follow up selling. Let down moves stop at near about above mentioned levels and complete consolidation develop then correction completion will be considered otherwise correction is very much on.
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