Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5903-5911
2- All intraday Up mooves in Bearish Rising Wedge formation.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5881-5911

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Firstly Sideways market before Blasting moves:-

Firstly sideways quiet market preparation before Blasting moves after Union Budget-2013

As was told yesterday same happened today and Whole day narrow range quiet trading was seen between 30 points with more than first 5 hours slow up moves with  Bearish Rising Wedge formation and after that slipping from intraday higher levels. As down moves from intraday higher levels on 15-02-2013 after Bearish Rising Wedge formation and today again higher levels selling therefore emergence of more down moves possibilities. Although Nifty got support between 5854-5872 on 15-02-2013 but follow up selling just above it in previous 2 sessions therefore more down moves can not be ruled out.

Previous 2 sessions trading between 5854-5911 with lower levels consolidations and higher levels selling therefore firstly trading will be seen between this range tomorrow and this range valid break out should be firstly watched now for next moves confirmations. 

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 18-Feb-2013 2159.61 2016.7 142.91

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 18-Feb-2013 668.48 779.03 -110.55

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.86

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.82

Nifty P/E Ratio(18-Feb-2013): 17.72

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,580

BSE Declines : 1,246 

NSE Advances :   912 

NSE Declines :   603

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -17,050(-6.24%)

Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -459,650(-6.82%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- -69,000(-7.15%)

Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)-  43,200(0.66%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 300,300(6.72%)

Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -276,950(-3.98%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 1,213,000(16.46%)

Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -135,250(-4.42%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19501.08(32.93 Points & 0.17%)

Nifty- closed at 5,898.20(10.80 Points & %)

CNX Midcap - closed at 7,971.05(45.85 Points & 0.58%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,438.60(24.65 Points & 0.72%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5946

R2 5928

R1 5913

Avg 5895

S1 5880

S2 5862

S3 5847

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5931     Trgt 2 

H5 5923     Trgt 1

H4 5916     Long breakout 

H3 5907     Go Short 

H2 5904

H1 5901

L1 5894

L2 5891

L3 5888     Long 

L4 5879     Short Breakout 

L5 5872     Trgt 1 

L6 5864     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5959
R2 5940
R1 5922
Avg 5903
S1 5885
S2 5866
S3 5848

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5941     Trgt 2
H5 5932     Trgt 1
H4 5924     Long breakout
H3 5914     Go Short
H2 5910
H1 5907
L1 5900
L2 5897
L3 5893     Long
L4 5883     Short Breakout
L5 5875     Trgt 1
L6 5866     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12495
R2 12463
R1 12419
Avg 12387
S1 12343
S2 12311
S3 12267

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12451     Trgt 2
H5 12433     Trgt 1
H4 12416     Long breakout
H3 12395     Go Short
H2 12388
H1 12381
L1 12368
L2 12361
L3 12354     Long
L4 12333     Short Breakout
L5 12316     Trgt 1
L6 12298     Trgt 2

As Busy therefore next Outlook will be updated tomorrow.

Firstly Sideways market before Blasting moves

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 18 to Feb 22,2013)

Correction is continued and its detailed analysis has already been updated in following Weekly Outlook topic on 09-02-2013

Pre-Budget Rally after Correction Completion

Following conclusive lines were posted in above topic:-

As strong supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore high possibility of correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels and will be certainly considered if intraday charts will start to show consolidations there. Expected that consolidation will start near about 5823 or above it in next week and Pre-Budget Rally will commence after on going correction completion.

Correction continuation in previous week with lower weekly closing at 5853.90 but lower levels consolidation was also seen on 15-02-2013 therefore its intraday charts will be firstly understood:-

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 5854-5872
2- Slipping from intraday higher levels after Bearish Rising Wedge formation in last 1 hour.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5854-5897

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Although higher levels Bearish Rising Wedge formation and slipping form intraday higher levels but consolidation patterns formations also between 5854-5872 on 15-02-2013 therefore sustaining beyond 5854-5897 should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for next trend first indication,

Strong supports above 5823 and complete selling pattern are also required for sustaining below 5823 but multiple resistances also between 5908-6111 after higher levels good selling in previous weeks therefore Indian markets are not prepared and complete preparation is required for any side decisive moves.  Although good supports are above 5823 but more slipping toward 5823 can not ruled out during consolidation process also therefore next deeper down moves will be considered only after sustaining below 5823. 

Expected that Nifty will be firstly range bound between 5854-5897 and after that will prepare for next moves between 5823-5908. Sideways market is firstly expected in the coming sessions and above mentioned both ranges should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations. Let market prepare for next trend and intraday charts start to show formation then will be updated accordingly during trading hours in the same manner as being done for the last 3 years.

Firstly sideways quiet market preparation before Blasting moves after Union Budget-2013

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 15-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Feb-2013 2738.61 2491.31 247.3

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Feb-2013 797.63 1043.61 -245.98

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Feb-2013)

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.83

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.80

Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Feb-2013): 17.70

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,117

BSE Declines : 1,727  

NSE Advances :   609

NSE Declines :   921

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -13,200(-4.61%)

Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -338,450(-4.78%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 7,350(0.77%)

Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- 203,950(3.21%)

30.24

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 1,036,750(30.24%)

Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -853,200(-10.93%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 1,053,500(16.68%)

Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -399,350(-11.55%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19468.15(-29.03 Points & -0.15%)

Nifty- closed at 5,887.40(-9.55 Points & -0.16%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 7,925.20(29.85 Points &  0.38%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,413.95(-10.45 Points & -0.31%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5952
R2 5925
R1 5906
Avg 5879
S1 5860
S2 5833
S3 5814

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5933     Trgt 2
H5 5922     Trgt 1
H4 5912     Long breakout
H3 5899     Go Short
H2 5895
H1 5891
L1 5882
L2 5878
L3 5874     Long
L4 5861     Short Breakout
L5 5851     Trgt 1
L6 5840     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5965
R2 5937
R1 5914
Avg 5886
S1 5863
S2 5835
S3 5812

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5943     Trgt 2
H5 5931     Trgt 1
H4 5920     Long breakout
H3 5906     Go Short
H2 5901
H1 5896
L1 5887
L2 5882
L3 5877     Long
L4 5863     Short Breakout
L5 5852     Trgt 1
L6 5840     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12561
R2 12486
R1 12433
Avg 12358
S1 12305
S2 12230
S3 12177

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12510     Trgt 2
H5 12480     Trgt 1
H4 12451     Long breakout
H3 12416     Go Short
H2 12404
H1 12392
L1 12369
L2 12357
L3 12345     Long
L4 12310     Short Breakout
L5 12281     Trgt 1
L6 12251     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 18 to Feb 22,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6070

R2 6020

R1 5953

Avg 5903

S1 5836

S2 5786

S3 5719

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6004     Trgt 2 

H5 5978     Trgt 1

H4 5951     Long breakout 

H3 5919     Go Short 

H2 5908

H1 5897

L1 5876

L2 5865

L3 5854     Long 

L4 5822     Short Breakout 

L5 5795     Trgt 1 

L6 5769     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 18 to Feb 22,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12691
R2 12588
R1 12462
Avg 12359
S1 12233
S2 12130
S3 12004

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12566     Trgt 2
H5 12514     Trgt 1
H4 12461     Long breakout
H3 12398     Go Short
H2 12377
H1 12356
L1 12315
L2 12294
L3 12273     Long
L4 12210     Short Breakout
L5 12157     Trgt 1
L6 12105     Trgt 2

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-1st Intraday/Positional Selling of 15-02-2013-Covering

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-1st Intraday/Positional-Sold on 15-02-2013-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-5224(Lalit39)

DATA UPDATE

As following data therefore CRUDEOIL is up but finally down is expected because higher levels selling in previous sessions.

7:00pm CAD  Manufacturing Sales m/m  -3.1% -0.4% 1.7%  
USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index  10.0 -2.1 -7.8 
DATA IS WEAK FOR BULLIONS, SLIGHTLY GOOD FOR BASE METALS AND ENERGIES.

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Selling Trade

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Sell-Intraday/Positional-SL-5276 & TGT-5196-CMP-5245(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(15-02-2013)

Following lines were told at 12:46 PM in Mid-session Outlook today:-

1- a bounce back can not be ruled out now.
2- today intraday charts are showing consolidation signals therefore Pull back rally expectations turned alive from any level between 5823-5863.

Live Proofs of our accuracy

When Nifty was trading near lower levels then we gave a range of 5823-5863 at 12:46 PM and Nifty reversed from 5,853.90 after new intraday low formation at 01:59 PM and now trading at 5894 after new intraday high formation.

Not only today but our this Blog is full of such accurate daily predictions for the last 3 years and anyone can verify this fact from 'Archive' at the bottom of Blog.

Only a bounce back was expected and it has been seen and follow up moves in the beginning of next week will decide the timings of Pre-Budget rally and its detailed analysis will be updated in Weekly Analysis before next Monday. 

Mid-session Outlook(15-02-2013)

Previous support of 5895 has been broken down and now movement toward Strong support(5823) but sentiment is extremely depressed and Short term indicators are oversold also therefore a bounce back can not be ruled out now. As good selling at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required for any decisive up move and today intraday charts are showing consolidation signals therefore Pull back rally expectations turned alive from any level between 5823-5863.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(15-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5930-5937
2- Follow up selling between 5908-5915
3- Whole day actual trading between 5887-5937

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following topic with next trend deciding crucial levels was posted at 12:47 AM on 14-02-2013:-

Next Trend Decider 5883-5984

Nifty traded exactly within above mentioned between 5,884.55-5,940.20 on 14-02-2013 and closed near lower levels of the day after good selling at higher levels and until Nifty Nifty will not sustain above mentioned selling levels till then next move will not be considered. For next moves same conclusion which was updated in following topic yesterday:- 

Pre-Closing Outlook(14-02-2013)

Just click above both Topic Links for more analysis

GOLD-Apr Fut-Positional Buying of 14-02-2013-Covering

GOLD-Apr Fut-Positional-Bought on 14-02-2013-Cover and book profit immediately.We shall again trade tomorrow-CMP-30460(Lalit39)

NICKEL-Feb Fut-Intraday Selling of 14-02-2013-Covering

NICKEL-Feb Fut-Intraday Selling of 14-02-2013-Cover and book small profit immediately-CMP-984(Lalit39)(Lalit39)

GOLD-Apr Fut-Selling Trade

GOLD-Apr Fut-Sell-Positional-SL-30606 & TGT-30356-CMP-30508(Lalit39)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on FII 14-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII FII 14-Feb-2013 3365.04 3043.78 321.26

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII FII 14-Feb-2013 1214.65 1463.64 -248.99

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on FII 14-Feb-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5985

R2 5962

R1 5929

Avg 5906

S1 5873

S2 5850

S3 5817

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5952     Trgt 2 

H5 5939     Trgt 1

H4 5926     Long breakout 

H3 5911     Go Short 

H2 5906

H1 5901

L1 5890

L2 5885

L3 5880     Long 

L4 5865     Short Breakout 

L5 5852     Trgt 1 

L6 5839     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5998

R2 5974

R1 5937

Avg 5913

S1 5876

S2 5852

S3 5815

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5961     Trgt 2 

H5 5947     Trgt 1

H4 5933     Long breakout 

H3 5916     Go Short 

H2 5911

H1 5905

L1 5894

L2 5888

L3 5883     Long 

L4 5866     Short Breakout 

L5 5852     Trgt 1 

L6 5838     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12579.67
R2 12520.33
R1 12430.67
Avg 12371.33
S1 12281.67
S2 12222.33
S3 12132.67

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12490     Trgt 2
H5 12456     Trgt 1
H4 12422     Long breakout
H3 12381     Go Short
H2 12368
H1 12354
L1 12327
L2 12313
L3 12300     Long
L4 12259     Short Breakout
L5 12225     Trgt 1
L6 12191     Trgt 2

NICKEL-Feb Fut-Selling Trade

NICKEL-Feb Fut-Sell-Intraday-SL-996 & TGT-906-CMP-988(Lalit39)

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Intraday Selling of 14-02-2013-Covering

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Intraday Selling of 14-02-2013-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-5227(Lalit39)(Lalit39)

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Positional Selling of 13-02-2013-Covering

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Positional Selling of 13-02-2013-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-5226(Lalit39)(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(14-02-2013)

Although new intraday low formation at 02:39 PM but selling was updated at 02:01 PM in Mid-session Outlook-2 and now more down moves toward 5923 are expected after higher levels selling today.

Mid-session Outlook-2(14-02-2013)

As volatility after Inflation news and SBI Quarterly results as well as sentiment changes sharply in such type of news based markets therefore final view will be formed after stabilizing of markets and intraday charts patterns formations. At present some selling signals are being seen only.

SILVER-Mar Fut-Positional Selling of 13-02-2013-Covering

SILVER-Mar Fut-Positional-Sold on 13-02-2013-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-57294(Lalit39)

Mid-session Outlook(14-02-2013)

Inflation in Jan 6.62% vs 7.18% and at 3 years lowest as well therefore markets recovered from lower levels but both higher and lower levels are capped and more consolidation is required for moving above yesterday highs because good selling at higher levels yesterday. Same view at this moment which has already been updated in following topic yesterday:-

Next Trend Decider 5883-5984

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Selling Trade

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Sell-Intraday-SL-5276 & TGT-5186-CMP-5240(Lalit39)

Next Trend Decider 5883-5984

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(14-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5960-5969
2- Last more than 1 hour down moves in Bullish falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 5925-5969

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Most time trading between previous resistance range(5930-5984) with fresh intraday selling between 5960-5969 and after that slipping in Bullish falling Channel therefore wait and watch policy despite closing near lower levels. As both lower levels consolidation between 5883-5900 on 13-02-2013 before higher levels selling today therefore Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves and will firstly remain range bound betwen 5883-5984 and take positions for next decisive moves in the coming sessions and its valid break out will decide next trend.

SILVER-Apr Fut-1st Intraday/Positional Selling of 13-02-2013-Covering

SILVER-Mar Fut-1st Intraday/Positional-Sold on 13-02-2013-Intraday Traders may COVER AND BOOK PROFIT Immediately and Positional traders may carry over-CMP-57439

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-Feb-2013 3209.04 2408.73 800.31

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-Feb-2013 966.34 1256.03 -289.69

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-Feb-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

3 5876
R2 5904
R1 5913
Avg 5941
S1 5950
S2 5978
S3 5987

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5885     Trgt 2
H5 5893     Trgt 1
H4 5901     Long breakout
H3 5911     Go Short
H2 5915
H1 5918
L1 5925
L2 5928
L3 5932     Long
L4 5942     Short Breakout
L5 5950     Trgt 1
L6 5958     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6021

R2 6000

R1 5968

Avg 5947

S1 5915

S2 5894

S3 5862

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5989     Trgt 2 

H5 5977     Trgt 1

H4 5965     Long breakout 

H3 5950    Go Short 

H2 5945

H1 5940

L1 5931

L2 5926

L3 5921     Long 

L4 5906     Short Breakout 

L5 5894     Trgt 1 

L6 5882     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12623

R2 12570

R1 12483

Avg 12430

S1 12343

S2 12290

S3 12203

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12536      Trgt 2 

H5 12504     Trgt 1

H4 12472     Long breakout 

H3 12434     Go Short 

H2 12421

H1 12408

L1 12383

L2 12370

L3 12357     Long 

L4 12319     Short Breakout 

L5 12287     Trgt 1 

L6 12255     Trgt 2

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Selling Trade

CRUDEOIL-Feb Fut-Sell-Positional-SL-5276 & TGT-5166-CMP-5237(Lalit39)

SILVER-Mar Fut-Selling Trade

SILVER-Mar Fut-Sell-/Positional-SL-57826 & TGT-57211-CMP-57525(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(13-02-2013)

Indian markets are flat but when were trading near today higher levels then we cautioned after covering our buying positions and market slipped as well as lost all intraday gains. Next moves preparation trading range is 5883-5984 and its break out should be watched for next moves confirmations. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(13-02-2013)

As intraday selling patterns formations and negative news of corruption in I. A. F. Helicopter deal therefore cautious view was updated in previous Outlook and market slip also from higher levels. Next moves preparation trading range is 5883-5984 and its break out should be watched for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(13-02-2013)

Some confusion today due to news of corruption in I. A. F. Helicopter deal therefore view is cautious and until Nifty will not sustain above today highs and 5984 till then immediate up move will not be considered.