Firstly Bounce Back & finally Correction Continuation towards 7642.30

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 15 to Jun 19,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015

Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-1 corrected 850.05 points
4- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
5- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
6- Wave-3 corrected 847.25 points
7- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
8- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015
9- Wave-3 has corrected 549.25 points
10- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support and Consolidation between 7941-7967(Immediate Supports)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7941-7995

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing with minor gains on 12-06-2015 but whole day good consolidation and no selling patterns formations as well as Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore finally up moves are expected in the beginning of next week despite all European and US markets more than .62% down closing last Friday.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down and Indian markets are in the firm grip of Bears as well as confirmations of 5 Waves correction in previous weeks therefore correction continuation will be considered and until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction completion will not be expected.

Wave-1 and Wave-3 have corrected almost 850 points and almost as such 850 points correction will be considered for on going Wave-5 also but on going Wave-5 will complete above 7642.30 because as per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5". Now corrective Wave-5 is on and it should not loose more points than Wave-3 lost.

Wave-3 lost=847.25 points(8844.40-7997.15)

It means on going corrective Wave-5 will loose less than 847.25 points which started from(8489.55). Therefore maximum target of on going Wave-5 will be:-

8489.55-847.25=7642.30

Wave-1 started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 and its 5th wave completed on 04-03-2015 at 9119.20 and 5 Waves correction begun,now its corrective Wave-5 is on with recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015. As correction started on 04-03-2015 after 5 waves completion therefore Nifty will correct whole that move which started from 5118.85 and completed 9119.20 acoording to following Fibonacci retracement levels:-

1- 13.0%-8,598(Corrected)
2- 23.6%-8,174(Corrected)
3- 27.0%-8,038(Corrected)
4- 38.2%-7,590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-7,118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-6,646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%-6,290
8- 76.4%-6,062
8- 78.6%-5,974 
10-88.6%-5,574 

27.0% retracement has been completed and next crucial 38.2% retracement levels is at 7,590 which is below on going Wave-5 maximum target(7642.30). Expected that on going corrective Wave-5 will completed above 7642.30 but correction completion will be considered only after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8200) because its breaking down confirmation after last 8 sessions closing below it.

As Short Term Oscillators are oversold and intraday consolidation patterns formations also on 12-06-2015 therefore a bounce back will be considered in the beginning of next week. If follow up consolidation develops on next Monday then a Pull Back rally will be seen but until complete consolidation will not happen on EOD charts till then correction will not complete.

Firstly bounce back & finally correction continuation towards 7642.30 is expected in next week

Maximum target of on going correction at 7642.30

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(12-06-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7958.25 on 11-06-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and firstly 'ABC'correction was considered but once slipping below Wave-C bottom(7997.15) mean 5 waves correction and now  Wave-5 correction continuation. 

As per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now corrective Wave-5 is on and it should not loose more points than Wave-3 lost.

Wave-3 lost=847.25 points(8844.40-7997.15)

It means on going corrective Wave-5 will loose less than 847.25 points which started from(8489.55). Therefore maximum target of on going Wave-5 will be:-
8489.55-847.25=7642.30

It means that on going Wave-5 will complete above 7642.30

First Indication of Next Big Moves 
from 8085-8185

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(11-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Sharp 65 points up in first 4 minutes
2- Mixed Patterns between 8085-8115 in 5 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8030-8150

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Finally Pull back rally above 8057":-

1- Pull back rally is expected tomorrow.
2- fast up moves will be seen after valid break out above today highest(8057)
3- some resistances are lying between 8135-8185
4- strong rally will be considered after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8185. 

As was told 100% same happened and that fast Pull back rally was seen today which moved up 65 points sharply in first 4 minutes only. Resistances were told between 8135-8185 and Nifty could not sustain within this range as well as slipped below it after intraday highest formation at 8152.25.

As 5 hours mixed Patterns formations between 8085-8115 and resistances are lying just above it between 8135-8185 therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for fresh strong rally and sustaining above 8185.  

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 8085-8185 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide following next trend:-

1- Sustaining above 8185 will mean fast up moves possibility towards next resistance range(8427-8485)
2- Sustaining below 8085 will mean fast down moves possibility towards next support range(8008-8025)

37 sessions trading between 7997-8505 and finally break out of this range will decide next big moves but first indication of those big moves can be drawn from valid break out of 8085-8185 and must be watched in the coming sessions. 

Finally Pull back rally above 8057

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(10-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8045-8057
2- Good consolidation also between 8008-8025 
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8006-8057

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day 51 points sideways trading with both higher levels selling and lower levels good consolidation also therefore valid break out of today trading range should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations. 

Following lines were told on 03-06-2015 in "Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast":-

1- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
2- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
3- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
4- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
5- Wave-5 continuation after slipping below 7997

Slipping below 7997 will be corrective Wave-5 confirmation which will be open the doors of deeper 5% fast correction.

As good consolidation between 8057-8135 from 03-06-2015 to 05-06-2015 therefore fast up moves will be seen after valid break out above today highest(8057) but some resistances are lying between 8135-8185 and strong rally will be considered after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8185. 

As Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel pattern formations seen 3 times and lower levels good consolidation also therefore expected that finally Nifty will move above today highest(8057) and Pull back rally is expected tomorrow.

Mid-session Outlook(09-06-2015)

Side ways quiet first 4 hours trading between 8008-8057 with both higher levels selling between 8045-8057 and lower levels good consolidation also between 8008-8025 therefore valid break out of today first 4 hours trading range should be firstly watched now and must be kept in mind that once slipping below 7997 will mean high possibility of sharp down. 

As valid break out of today trading range will open the gates of next big moves therefore should be firstly watched.

As busy therefore today Outlook is not being updated but Mid-session Outlook will be posted during trading hours today.

33 Sessions Sideways Nifty requires break out for Next Big Moves

Intra Day Charts Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 03 to Jun 05,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8168-8190 on 03-06-2015
2- Consolidation between 8095-8135 on 03-06-2015
3- Consolidation between 8105-8152 on 04-06-2015
4- Consolidation between 8057-8084 on 04-06-2015
5- Consolidation between 8119-8140 on 04-06-2015
6- Consolidation between 8104-8134 on 05-06-2015
7- Mixed Patterns between 8132-8190 on 05-06-2015
8- Consolidation between 8109-8122 on 05-06-2015
9- 3 Sessions most time trading between 8057-8190 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

3 Sessions most time trading between 8057-8190 with good consolidation within this range but mixed Patterns formations were also seen within this range at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for break out and sustaining above last 3 sessions range highest(8190)

Following lines were told on 03-06-2015 in "Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast"

As Nifty traded last 31 sessions between 7997-8505 and hover around 14 days Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of Long Term Trend also and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. 

Nifty is not trending but sideways between 7997-8505 for the last 33 sessions and break out of this range range will decide next big moves of Nifty. As good consolidation in last 3 sessions near the lower levels of this range between 8057-8190 therefore emergence of some up moves expectations within 33 sessions range.  

Pull Back Rally Possibility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8105-8152
2- Consolidation between 8057-8084
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8119-8140
4- Whole day actual trading between 8057-8152

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing in a volatile day today but whole day good consolidation and Bullish Hammer candlestick formation therefore Pull Back rally is expected in the coming sessions and once sustaining above today trading highest(8152) will mean today consolidation levels turning into strong supports.

As all the European markets are trading moe than 1% down and Dow Futures is also now 110 points down therefore sentimental weakness may be seen tomorrow morning if such weakness reflects in Asian markets also and in that situation Nifty may firstly trade within today trading range. As whole day good consolidation Patterns formations today therefore until fresh selling will not develop till then down moves below today lowest will not be considered.  

Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- 31 sessions between 7997-8505
6- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Union Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan said on monsoon yesterday that India Meteorological Department (IMD) had downgraded its earlier April prediction from 93 per cent to 88 per cent this month.

As soon as above statement came out Indian markets started to move down and Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) today,finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend will decide next trend because:-

Nifty tested and hovered around 200 Day EMA 11 sessions from 28-04-2015 to 14-05-2015 and finally sustained above it last 13 sessions but again moved below it today.

As market came under firm grip of Bears after negative news of Weaker monsoon and final impact of this news on Indian markets have to be decided yet because as per our view 12 per cent less monsoon will not create as such havoc and drought like situation. 

As Nifty traded last 31 sessions between 7997-8505 and hover around 14 days Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of Long Term Trend also and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. 

Slipping below 7997 will mean 5 Waves correction confirmation and in that situation Waves structure of on going correction will be as follows:-

1- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
2- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
3- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
4- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
5- Wave-5 continuation after slipping below 7997

Certainly Long Term Trend is at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast and slipping below 7997 will be Wave-5 as well as deeper correction.

Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market between 8201-8489

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Volatility after 25 BPS rates cut by RBI.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel after RBI rates cut.
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last more than 3 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8227-8445

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although we were expecting Rally above 8467/8489 after Repo Rates cut by 50 BPS to 100 BPS today but well prepared also for down moves if rate are cut by 25 BPS therefore we told following line yesterday;-

1- 25 BPS rate cut is confirm and discounted in present rates also therefore if it is announced then market will fall.

Firstly volatility after 25 BPS rate cut and after that Huge fall was seen today but all the down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel therefore expected that Pull Back Rally will be seen in the coming sessions.

Weekly Analysis topic with Crucial levels were updated on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

Nifty traded  between 8201-8489 in last 7 sessions with lower levels good supports therefore Nifty could not slip below 8201 despite huge fall today.

As almost 4 hours today down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore Pull Back rally is expected tomorrow and still Nifty will be understood sideways Trading between 8201-8489 and next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond 8201-8489. 

Rally above 8467/8489 after Repo Rates cut by 50 BPS to 100 BPS tomorrow

 Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(02-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8440-8467(Immediate Resistances)
2- Last trading rate at the trading lowest of the day
3- Last 2 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8422-8467

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 01:16 PM on 01-06-2015 in "Mid-session Outlook(01-06-2015)":-

1- Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels the day at this moment.
2- but today intraday charts are showing selling patterns also.
3- view is cautious before RBI Credit Policy.

When Nifty was trading near the higher levels the day then we told for selling and Nifty closed near the lowest trading levels of the day today.

We told following lines also on 30-05-2015 in "Pull Back Rally continuation Possibility towards 8762.55":-

1- selling possibility can not be ruled out on the back of all around accepted RBI Rates cut on 2nd June
2- follow up consolidation is must because 5 hours mixed Patterns formations on 29-05-2015.

Selling possibility was told and it was seen between 8440-8467 today and it will be immediate resistance of Nifty. Crucial levels were updated in following Weekly Analysis topic on on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

Nifty traded within above mentioned range between 8271-8467 in last 6 sessions with lower levels good supports and higher levels selling therefore technically Nifty has to trade and prepare yet for next decisive moves beyond 8201-8489.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow and our expectations with market reactions will be as follows:-

1- 25 BPS rate cut is confirm and discounted in present rates also therefore if it is announced then market will fall.
2- 50 BPS rate cut is possible and if it is announced then market will shoot up but before that Nifty has to consolidate between 8370-8467 and high volatility may also be seen before Credit Policy.
3- 75 BPS and above rates cut can not be ruled out because Governor Rajan is known for surprises also. If it happens the Nifty will shoot up above 8467/8489 and will consolidate at higher levels but before than Nifty has to consolidate between 8370-8467 and high volatility may also be seen before Credit Policy.

As now Indian Economy Growth ball is in the court of RBI and expected that RBI Governor will fulfill his responsibility after watching WPI,CPI,IIP and GDP figures. We are expecting rates cut by RBI between 50 BPS to 100 BPS tomorrow as well as rally above 8467/8489 because today last 2 hours Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel also. A strict caution is that market may be highly volatile before Credit Policy therefore trade carefully.

Mid-session Outlook(01-06-2015)

Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels the day at this moment but today intraday charts are showing selling patterns also therefore view is cautious before RBI Credit Policy. 

Pull Back Rally continuation Possibility towards 8762.55 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 01 to Jun 05,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)('ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Pull Back rally continuation after Wave-'C' completion 

Waves structure of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Nifty hovered around 11 sessions Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8209) and finally sustained above it. 
11- 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 from 24-04-2015 to 15-05-2015 and this range broken out on 18-05-2015.
12- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders formations in 15 sessions with its Neckline at 8365 which was broken out on 18-05-2015.
13- 15 sessions trading range top and Neckline(8365) of Inverted Head and Shoulders was broken down 2 times in previous week but finally sharply moved up above 8365 on 29-05-2015

Waves structure of 'ABC'on going correction

 Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Sub Wave-1(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Sub Wave-2(8270.15 on 28-05-2015)
7- Sub Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,443.90 on 29-05-2015

Intra Day Chart Analysis(29-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8370-8443 in 5 last hours.
2- Whole day actual trading between 8305-8443

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the higher levels of the day with 1.38% gains but mixed(both buying and selling) Patterns formations between 8370-8443 in last 5 hours therefore selling possibility can not be ruled out on the back of all around accepted RBI Rates cut on 2nd June and follow up consolidation is must in the beginning of next week for rally continuation.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-1 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 commenced from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015. After that 'ABC'correction begun which finished at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015 and it is just above the bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) therefore it is clear that Wave-5 has almost completely retraced in previous 'ABC' correction. Following Bullish developments at the bottom of Wave-'C':-

1- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with its Neckline at 8365 broken out.
2- 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 and its top at 8365 broken out.
3- Nifty tested and hovered around 11 sessions Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8209) and finally sustained above it.

As above most crucial and Bullish patterns near the bottom of Wave-'C' therefore strong indications of 'ABC'correction completion because:-

1- As 42 Sessions correction from  04-03-2015 to 17-12-2014 and 15 sessions Bullish pattern formation near the bottom of correction therefore it is sufficient for  time wise correction completion.
2- Wave-5 has almost completely retraced in previous 'ABC' correction therefore price wise correction completion can also be considered

Sub Wave-3 is on and as per following calculations its minimum target is at

As per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Impulsive Sub Wave-3 is on and it should gain more points than Sub Wave-1 gained.

Sub Wave-1 gained 8489.55-7997.15=492.40 Points

Sub Wave-3 started from 8270.15 and and as per Elliot Wave theory it should gain minimum 492.40 because it can not be shorter than Sub Wave-1 therefore its minimum target is at:-

8762.55=8270.15(Sub Wave-3 started)+492.40(Sub Wave-1 gained)

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8431-8462
2- 8486-8502
3- 8522-8564
4- 8640-8468
5- 8690-8750
6- 8777-8784
7- 8802-8844

Wave-5 has almost completely corrected and Bullish patterns formations at the bottom of  Wave-'C' therefore strong signals of that whole rally correction completion which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013. It also means that Nifty is now prepared for fresh rally above life time high(9119.20) after previous rally correction completion.

For Short Term now Pull Back Rally continuation towards 8762.55 will be understood in the coming weeks but follow up consolidation is must because 5 hours mixed Patterns formations on 29-05-2015 and above mentioned multiple resistances above previous week closing.

View is Cautious after Nifty Jun Fut closing in discount on Expiry day today

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(29-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 8271-8295(Immediate Supports)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8271-8364

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As huge fall in Shanghai and Hang Seng therefore continuous slipping immediately after opening up to 01:00 PM but Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and lower levels good consolidation was also seen therefore technically view will not be Bearish and fresh up moves are expected above today highest after 1/2 sessions consolidation.

One rare development was seen today that Nifty Jun Fut closed in discount at 8318.55 while most of the time next month Fut were being closed on Expiry day with near about or above 50 Points Premium. As today closing in discount therefore view is cautious and fresh selling beginning possibility on the back of Repo Rates cut hopes by RBI (on 2nd June Credit policy) will also be considered.  

Certainly view is cautious and watchful because following contradictory developments:-

1- Intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns therefore Indian markets are technically poised for up moves.
2- All around rates cut expectations are turning high therefore Jun Fut should have closed with good premium but closed in discount therefore if selling develops in this positive news led heated sentiments then huge fall may be seen even after RBI Rates cut.

Two  Trading sessions are left before RBI Credit Policy and big moves are expected after its announcement. Let follow up technical positions formations develop in next 2 sessions then will be firstly understood through intraday charts patterns formations and then will updated accordingly. 

No gossiping never guessing and whatsoever market suggest only that is always updated. Let market prepare for next trend and decisive moves conclusions come then will be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 5 years.

View not be Bearish after Shanghai & Hang Seng led huge Fall

Mid-session Outlook(28-05-2015)

As consolidation yesterday therefore positive opening in Indian markets but down moves started because sentiment completely dampened after huge fall beginning in following Asian markets:-

Shanghai closed now 321(6.50%) down.
Hang Seng is now trading 826(2.94%) down.

As today fall in Indian markets is Asian markets driven and all the European markets are also in Red today therefore view will not be Bearish and fresh up moves are expected above today highest after 1/2 sessions consolidation because:-

1- Today intraday patterns are not showing selling formations.
2- Last 2 sessions intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations. 

Rally continuation after Consolidation Today

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(28-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Lower levels supports between 8278-8295(Immediate Supports)
2- Sharp 40 points up in 9 minutes.
3- Consolidation between 8308-8320(Immediate Supports)
4- Whole day actual trading between 8278-8342

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As sharp 40 points up after lower levels supports and good consolidation between 8308-8320 therefore fresh up moves are expected in the coming sessions because good consolidation above today highest was also seen yesterday.

Fresh Rally within 1/2 days without sustaining below 200 Day EMA(today at 8204).

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-May-2015):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8347-8369 
2- Consolidation between 8321-8337 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8321-8378

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time negative zone trading and 0.37% down closing also today but whole day Consolidation Patterns formations therefore Indian markets will be understood under consolidation phase because selling patterns were not seen today. As US markets are trading more than 1% down after most European markets more than 1% down closing therefore negative zone or gap down opening may be seen Indian markets tomorrow if such weakness will be seen in Asian markets tomorrow morning. 

As signals of Indian markets moving into consolidation phase therefore expected that fresh rally will start within 1/2 days after yesterday started correction completion and Nifty will not sustain below 200 Day EMA(today at 8204).

8365 and 8201 will decide Length and Life of today started Correction

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8415-8441
2- Mixed Patterns between 8365-8400 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8365-8441

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 01:28 AM on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

1- firstly down moves will be seen in next week
2- Short Term Correction below day's lowest(8421) will be seen in the beginning of next week.
3- emergence of Short Term Correction possibility in the beginning of next week
4- Nifty will firstly slip 

As was told 100% same happened and firstly down moves were seen today and Nifty traded whole day in Red as well as closed 88.70 points down today.

Although Nifty closed near the lowest of the day but today intraday patterns are showing mixed Patterns formations therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves beyond today trading range. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within and near about today trading range(8365-8441) and finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend.

Only Short Term Correction was expected and it was seen today,let Nifty sustain below 8365 then correction continuation will be considered towards following next supports:-

1- Supports between 8247-8255
2- Supports between 8229-8250 
3- Supports between 8157-8189 

Detailed analysis with next resistances of Nifty have already been updated in Weekly analysis of this week and length of today started correction will be decided by following crucial levels also:-

1- 8365(Neckline of Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders was broken out break out on 18-05-2015)
2- 8365(Top of 15 sessions trading range was broken out break out on 18-05-2015)
3- 8201(Last 7 sessions sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA)

Nifty tested 8365 but closed above it today and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow because it will decide the valid break out of above mentioned Bullish pattern and trading range.

Short Term Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet, As length and life of today started correction will be decided by above mentioned 2 levels(8365 and 8201) therefore finally sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for correction continuation / completion confirmations.

Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 25 to May 29,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (22-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)('ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- 492.40 Points Pull Back rally after Wave-'C' completion with recent top formations at 8489.55 on 22-05-2015

Waves structure of 'ABC'on going correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (22-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 8489.55 on 22-05-2015.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 20 to May 22,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns formations between 8400-8440 on 20-05-2015
2- Consolidation between 8383-8400 on 21-05-2015
3- Mixed Patterns formations between 8400-8446 on 21-05-2015
4- More than 4 hours selling between 8460-8489 on 22-05-2015
5- 3 Sessions actual trading between 8383-8489 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

3 Sessions actual trading between 8383-8489 with lower levels consolidation below 8400 on 21-05-2015 and mixed patterns formations between 8400-8446 on 20th and 21st May but more than 4 hours selling between 8460-8489 on 22nd May therefore expected that firstly down moves will be seen in next week and Nifty will remain sideways between 8383-8489. As good selling was seen on 3rd day therefore Short Term Correction is firstly expected in the beginning of next week and if follow up selling develops and sustaining below 8383 will mean decisive down moves will be seen.

As both lower levels buying and higher levels selling in last 3 sessions between 8383-8489 therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend within this range and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations in coming week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours selling between 8460-8489(Immediate Resistances)
2- Whole day actual trading between 8421-8489

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although positive closing after Green opening but more than 4 hours selling between 8460-8489 therefore expected that Short Term Correction below day's lowest(8421) will be seen in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend is up after sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8201)

Following 3 Bullish developments in previous weeks

1- 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 and this range was broken out on 18-05-2015 
2- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders formations in 15 sessions with its Neckline at 8365 which was broken out on 18-05-2015 
3- Nifty is hovered around 11 sessions Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8201) and finally Nifty is sustaining above it for the last 6 sessions.

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:- 

1- 8431-8462
2- 8486-8502
3- 8522-8564
4- 8640-8468
5- 8690-8750 
6- 8777-8784
7- 8802-8844

Nifty crossed 1st resistance but good selling was seen below 2nd resistance on 22-05-2015 therefore market require complete consolidation for trading and sustaining above mentioned resistances. As above mentioned 3 Bullish developments therefore good supports are lying at following levels:-

1- 8365(Neckline of Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders)
2- 8365(Top of 15 sessions trading range)
3- 8201(Last 6 sessions sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA)

As above Bullish developments therefore on going Pull Back Rally continuation was seen but  Mixed Patterns(both buying and selling) formations between 8383-8489 in last 3 Sessions and more than 4 hours good selling between 8460-8489 was seen on 22-05-2015 therefore emergence of Short Term Correction possibility in the beginning of next week. Expected that Nifty will firstly slip and will trade in last 3 sessions trading range(8383-8489) as well as prepare for next trend.

Good supports below 8383 and multiple resistances above 8489 therefore Nifty will be sideways between 8201-8489 in next week and prepare for next trend as well as finally forceful break out or sustaining beyond this range will set next trend.

Pre-closing Outlook(22-05-2015)

Following lines were told today at 09;00 AM in Pre-open Outlook(22-05-2015):-

1- most Asian markets are trading with sufficiently good gains and sentiment is strong today morning
2- Nifty should trade above 8446 immediately after opening
3- otherwise possibility of Very Short Term correction will be considered
4- finally valid break out of 8383-8446 will give next decisive moves confirmations.

Nifty moved above 8446 after 10;30 AM and traded more than 3 hours between 8462-8489 but could not sustain at higher levels and slipped forcefully below 3 hours range(8462). 

As Nifty did not moved above 8446 immediately after opening and crossed it after 10;30 AM therefore possibility of selling under heated sentiments(due to  strong Asian markets) will be considered and firstly sustaining beyond 8383-8489 should be watched next trend confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(22-05-2015)

Last 2 sessions sideways trading between 8383-8446 with lower levels good consolidation and higher levels minor selling therefore finally rally continuation expectations above 8446 are alive. As multiple resistances are lying above 8446 and Short Term Indicators have moved into over bought zone therefore follow up consolidation is must.

As most Asian markets are trading with sufficiently good gains and sentiment is strong today morning therefore Nifty should trade above 8446 immediately after opening otherwise possibility of Very Short Term correction will be considered and then finally valid break out of 8383-8446 will give next decisive moves confirmations.