Mid-session Outlook(01-02-2013)

Following projections were done at 10:18 AM today when Indian markets were trading near today intraday higher levels:-

1- down move
2- trading between next support range(6000-6033) possibilities

Nifty is trading between above mentioned range for the last more than 2 hours after slipping from intraday higher levels and more down moves are expected below 6000 in next week.

Post-open Outlook(01-02-2013)

As selling between 6050-6056 yesterday after good selling above it up to 6100 in previous sessions therefore down moves and trading between next support range(6000-6033) possibilities are alive. Follow up selling today will mean breaking down development possibility of mentioned support range. Lot of resistances above 6050 and complete consolidation is required for any sustained move above 6050/6100.

Outlooks will be updated during trading hours today

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 31-Jan-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 31-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 31-Jan-2013 5426.07 4467.14 958.93

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 31-Jan-2013 1456.11 2319.71 -863.6

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(31-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- CNX Midcap and CNX Smallcap closed positive with more than half pct up.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.94
Nifty P/E Ratio(31-Jan-2013): 18.20

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,355
BSE Declines : 1,459
NSE Advances :   692
NSE Declines :   812

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Feb)- 144,500(77.13%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Feb)- 1,716,250(140.63%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Feb)- -48,700(-9.73%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Feb)-  622,400(23.51%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Feb)- 10,850(1.38%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Feb)- 54,250(15.09%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Feb)- 191,100(13.98%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Feb)- 460,800(15.35%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Feb)- 620,550(24.35%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Feb)- 264,550(15.46%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,894.98(-110.02 Points & -0.55%)
Nifty- closed at 6,034.75(-21.00 Points & -0.35%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,363.70(59.80 Points & 0.72%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,638.95(18.80 Points & 0.52%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6086

R2 6072

R1 6053

Avg 6039

S1 6020

S2 6006

S3 5987

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6067     Trgt 2 

H5 6059     Trgt 1

H4 6052     Long breakout 

H3 6043     Go Short 

H2 6040

H1 6037

L1 6030

L2 6027

L3 6024     Long 

L4 6015     Short Breakout 

L5 6008     Trgt 1 

L6 6000     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6138

R2 6121

R1 6094

Avg 6077

S1 6050

S2 6033

S3 6006

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6111     Trgt 2 

H5 6101     Trgt 1

H4 6091     Long breakout 

H3 6079     Go Short 

H2 6075

H1 6071

L1 6062

L2 6058

L3 6054     Long 

L4 6042     Short Breakout 

L5 6032     Trgt 1 

L6 6022     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 13044

R2 12981

R1 12878

Avg 12815

S1 12712

S2 12649

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12941     Trgt 2 

H5 12903     Trgt 1

H4 12866     Long breakout 

H3 12820     Go Short 

H2 12805

H1 12790

L1 12759

L2 12744

L3 12729     Long 

L4 12683     Short Breakout 

L5 12646     Trgt 1 

L6 12608     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook(31-01-2013)

We posted only bearish views and Indian markets slipped also from higher levels even after good Credit Policy from RBI and above expectations results from ICICI Bank today but down moves are not sharp and maintaining the status of sideways mode within 6000-6100.

Following line was told yesterday at 09:38 AM in Post-open Outlook(30-01-2013):-

Nifty will trade most time between 6033-6068 and prepare for next moves today"

As was told same happened and Nifty trade most time between 6033-6068 and 2 sessions trading ranges are as follows:-

1- Nifty traded between 6044.15-6071.95 yesterday.
2- Nifty traded between 6,034.90-6,058.05 today(more than 5 hours).

Confirm selling at higher levels today but intraday down moves are without force therefore next support range(6000-6033) break out will be firstly watched tomorrow.

Post-open Outlook(31-01-2013)

Following lines were told on 29-01-2013 in Correction continuation on cards

Follow up selling tomorrow will mean consideration of following possibility also:-

"FOMC Meeting is scheduled on January 29-30 and its results will come out in the mid night of 30 Jan. We don't know what will be its outcome but US markets intraday and daily charts are showing selling formations therefore sharp fall in US markets on 30-01-2013 can not be ruled out which may result sharp down moves in Asian and Indian markets on 31st Jan"

All the Asian markets are in Red today after negative closing in US markets but down moves are not sharp and Nifty is confined between 6000-6100. As both lower levels buying and higher levels selling is being seen for the last 12 sessions and one sided positions are not being built therefore sideways market. No other way but to wait for valid break out of those range which have already been updated in previous Outlook.

Although our view was bearish and markets moved down also but not too much. Let market prepare then next moves with breaking out possibility will be updated according to intraday charts formations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-01-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6062-6070
2- Support between 6044-6052
3- Whole day actual trading between 6044-6070

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good global cues led Green opening and positive zone trading therefore following trading range with technical reasons was given at 09:38 AM in Post-open Outlook(30-01-2013):-

"Next resistances are between 6068-6110 and supports are between 6000-6033 and expected that Nifty will trade most time between 6033-6068 and prepare for next moves today"

Nifty traded whole day between 6044-6070 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore mixed intraday patterns formations today.

As Bearish patterns formation in EOD charts and indicators are also showing negative divergence therefore deeper correction possibility is very much alive. Both higher levels resistances and lower levels supports in last 12 sessions between 6000-6100 and Nifty again traded within this range with intraday mixed patterns today therefore Nifty will firstly trade between 6000-6100 and prepare for next moves tomorrow. 

Sideways market(6000-6100) and it will take its own time for next moves preparation,no other way but only to wait for its valid break out and follow up one sided moves in the coming sessions will decide its time frame.  Following ranges valid break out should be firstly watched:-

1- For next moves first indication- 6033-6068
2- For next moves final confirmation- 6000-6100

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 30-Jan-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 30-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 30-Jan-2013 3802.74 2896.38 906.36

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 30-Jan-2013 1083.02 2178.84 -1095.82

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(30-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed almost flat.

2- CNX MIDCAP and CNX SMALLCAP closed in Red.

3- Doji Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.96

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.91

Nifty P/E Ratio(30-Jan-2013):18.22

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,202

BSE Declines : 1,679 

NSE Advances :   584

NSE Declines :   932

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -106,550(-14.26%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -226,950(-3.13%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -195,000(-21.68%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- -467,950(-5.67%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -332,900(-11.13%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-    3,500(0.04 %)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -379,750(-4.59%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -175,800(-5.92%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20005(14.10 Points & 0.07%)

Nifty- closed at 6,055.75(5.85 Points & 0.10%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,303.90(-20.05 Points & -0.24%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,620.15(-14.65 Points & -0.40%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6096

R2 6083

R1 6069

Avg 6056

S1 6042

S2 6029

S3 6015

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6082     Trgt 2 

H5 6075     Trgt 1

H4 6069     Long breakout 

H3 6062     Go Short 

H2 6059

H1 6057

L1 6052

L2 6050

L3 6047     Long 

L4 6040     Short Breakout 

L5 6034     Trgt 1 

L6 6027     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6104

R2 6090

R1 6075

Avg 6061

S1 6046

S2 6032

S3 6017

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6089     Trgt 2 

H5 6082     Trgt 1

H4 6075     Long breakout 

H3 6067     Go Short 

H2 6065

H1 6062

L1 6057

L2 6054

L3 6052     Long 

L4 6044     Short Breakout 

L5 6037     Trgt 1 

L6 6030     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12926
R2 12875
R1 12828
Avg 12777
S1 12730
S2 12679
S3 12632

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12880     Trgt 2
H5 12858     Trgt 1
H4 12835     Long breakout
H3 12808     Go Short
H2 12799
H1 12790
L1 12773
L2 12764
L3 12755     Long
L4 12728     Short Breakout
L5 12705     Trgt 1
L6 12683     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(30-01-2013)

Sideways market between 6044-6070 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling. Today trading range valid break out will be next very short term trend confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook-2(30-01-2013)

Following lines were told in previous Outlook:-

1- Nifty traded between 6054-6070 with higher levels selling patterns
2- valid break down of 5054 will be next down moves confirmation

As higher levels selling therefore Nifty slipped below 5054 but recovered after getting intraday support at 6044.15. As higher levels again selling today therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 6068/6070 till then next up moves will not be considered . Minor intraday support also seen near 6044 therefore its valid break down should also be watched for next more down moves toward next support range 6000-6033

Mid-session Outlook(30-01-2013)

Nifty traded between 6054-6070 with higher levels selling patterns formations and valid break down of 5054 will be next down moves confirmation.