Strong Rally continuation in the form of Impulsive Wave-3

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 24 to Sep 28,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Sep-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Strong intraday rally
2- Last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705
3- Whole day acual trading between 5600-5720

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly strong rally and after that last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705 but complete distribution patterns are required for correction. Intraday charts are indicating that Nifty will firstly hover around 5668-5705 and prepare for next moves.

Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Sep-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Daily charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)
5- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
6- Sub Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)
7- Sub Wave-4(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
8- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after correction completion
9- Impulsive Wave-3 continuation
10- 200-Day SMA at 5163
11- 200-Day EMA at 5227

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and strong rally(Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3) continuation after corrective Sub Wave-4 completion above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA and EMA. As last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705 on 21-09-2012 therefore if sentiment remains calm in the beginning of next week then Nifty will firstly  hover around 5668-5705 and prepare for next moves.

As Short term Indicators are overbought after 12 sessions 505 Nifty points strong rally therefore Short term correction is due and it may be seen also but finally Bullish rally is very much on in the form of Impulsive Wave-3 and its continuation is expected. Complete distribution patterns are required for Intermediate term  correction and until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 21-Sep-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 21-Sep-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs.Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 21-Sep-2012 6806.02 4478.2 2327.82

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 21-Sep-2012 1758.29 2885.57 -1127.28

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(21-Sep-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All thr Indices closed in Green except IT.
2- Long White Candle.
3- Closing at 52 week high.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Aug-2012): 18.04

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1815
BSE Declines : 1114
NSE Advances : 1029
NSE Declines :  443

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(Aug)- -342,300(-14.73%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Aug)- -1,534,950(-19.06%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Aug)- -1,434,700(-35.97%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Aug)-  840,000(11.09%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Aug)- -2,509,500(-36.15%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Aug)-  2,121,850(38.85%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Aug)- -689,300(-9.40%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Aug)-  3,457,350(255.94%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Aug)-  1,094,850(21.95%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Aug)-  1,010,650(403.53%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,691.15(136.90 Points & 2.46%)
Sensex- closed at 18,752.83(403.58 Points & 2.20% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,650.35(139.70 Points & 1.86%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,809.21(98.24 Points & 1.46%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-09-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5894
R2 5807
R1 5749
Avg 5662
S1 5604
S2 5517
S3 5459

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6  5839    Trgt 2
H5  5804    Trgt 1
H4  5770    Long breakout
H3  5730    Go Short
H2  5717
H1  5704
L1  5677
L2  5664
L3  5651    Long
L4  5611    Short Breakout
L5  5577    Trgt 1
L6  5542    Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-09-2012

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5919
R2 5827
R1 5767
Avg 5675
S1 5615
S2 5523
S3 5463

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5862     Trgt 2
H5 5826     Trgt 1
H4 5790     Long breakout
H3 5748     Go Short
H2 5734
H1 5720
L1 5693
L2 5679
L3 5665     Long
L4 5623     Short Breakout
L5 5587     Trgt 1
L6 5551     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-09-2012

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 12055
R2 11759
R1 11577
Avg 11281
S1 11099
S2 10803
S3 10621

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  11890    Trgt 2
H5  11774    Trgt 1
H4  11657    Long breakout
H3  11526   Go Short
H2  11482
H1  11438
L1  11351
L2  11307
L3  11263    Long
L4  11132    Short Breakout
L5  11015    Trgt 1
L6  10899    Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Sep 24 to Sep 28,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5947
R2 5833
R1 5762
Avg 5648
S1 5577
S2 5463
S3 5392

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5881     Trgt 2
H5 5836     Trgt 1
H4 5792     Long breakout
H3 5741     Go Short
H2 5724
H1 5707
L1 5674
L2 5657
L3 5640     Long
L4 5589     Short Breakout
L5 5545     Trgt 1
L6 5500     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Sep 24 to Sep 28,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12231
R2 11832
R1 11595
Avg 11196
S1 10959
S2 10560
S3 10323

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12027     Trgt 2
H5 11867     Trgt 1
H4 11707     Long breakout
H3 11532     Go Short
H2 11474
H1 11416
L1 11299
L2 11241
L3 11183     Long
L4 11008     Short Breakout
L5 10848     Trgt 1
L6 10688     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-2(21-09-2012)

Although TMC has withdrawn support from UPA-2 Govt but SP openly declared its support therefore termination of Mid-Term Election risk and confirmation of Union Govt. survival,resultant sentiment boosted and strong rally in Indian markets today.  

Technically,continuation of rally after correction completion. 

Mid-session Outlook(21-09-2012)

Although US markets closed flat yesterday but its Futures are strong today and Dow's Futures is trading more than 60 points up today therefore all the Asian markets are positive,Indian markets also responded with good gains and now trading above 5640,sustaining it above will be minor correction completion and  next up moves confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(21-09-2012)

As all Asian market in Green therefore positive opening today. Firstly intraday consolidation today and after that sustaining above 5640 will be next up moves confirmation.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-09-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Sep-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5562-5581
2- Whole day acual trading between 5534-5581

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Most of the time trading between 5562-5581 with intraday selling patterns yesterday. As intraday selling was seen in previous 2 sessions also therefore correction continuation possibility turned higher yesterday.

Pre-open Outlook(21-09-2012)

All Asian markets are in Green today morning and sentiment is good therefore positive opening is expected in Indian markets and expected that will firstly trade within yesterday trading range(5534-5581) but intraday selling yesterday and slipping possibility is stronger today. As intraday selling patterns in previous 3 sessions therefore until complete complete consolidation will not happen till then next upmove will not be seen and next moves confirmation range is sustaining beyond 5562-5640.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-Sep-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-Sep-2012 3187.08 3260.75 -73.67

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-Sep-2012 1136.67 1467.78 -331.11

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-Sep-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Red except IT and FMCG.
2- Inverted Hammer Candle formation.
3- Most of the time sideways market with intraday selling patterns.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.24
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Aug-2012): 17.63

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1155
BSE Declines : 1639
NSE Advances :  490
NSE Declines :  945

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5300 CE(Aug)- -66,650(-3.67%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Aug)- -486,200(-5.78%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Aug)- -147,350(-5.96%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Aug)-  226,500(2.89%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Aug)- 287,450(7.77%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Aug)- 398,950(5.56%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Aug)- 636,250(10.09%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Aug)- -548,450(-9.13%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Aug)- 252,500(3.57%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Aug)- -356,750(-20.89%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,554.25(-45.80 Points & -0.82%)
Sensex- closed at 18,349.25(-146.76 Points & -0.79% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,510.65(-52.90 Points & -0.70%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,710.97(-35.69 Points & -0.53%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-09-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5625
R2 5603
R1 5578
Avg 5556
S1 5531
S2 5509
S3 5484

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6  5601    Trgt 2
H5  5590    Trgt 1
H4  5579    Long breakout
H3  5566    Go Short
H2  5562
H1  5558
L1  5549
L2  5545
L3  5541   Long
L4  5528   Short Breakout
L5  5517   Trgt 1
L6  5506   Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-09-2012

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5636
R2 5615
R1 5593
Avg 5572
S1 5550
S2 5529
S3 5507

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5614     Trgt 2
H5 5604    Trgt 1
H4 5594     Long breakout
H3 5582     Go Short
H2 5578
H1 5574
L1 5657
L2 5563
L3 5559     Long
L4 5547    Short Breakout
L5 5537     Trgt 1
L6 5527     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-09-2012

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 11166
R2 11106
R1 11029
Avg 10969
S1 10892
S2 10832
S3 10755

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  11089    Trgt 2
H5  11058    Trgt 1
H4  11027    Long breakout
H3  10989    Go Short
H2  10977
H1  10964
L1  10939
L2  10926
L3  10914    Long
L4  10876    Short Breakout
L5  10845    Trgt 1
L6  10814    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(20-09-2012)

Whole day trading between 5562-5581 with intraday selling patterns therefore correction continuation possibility turning higher today.

Mid-session Outlook(20-09-2012)

Higher levels selling between 5586-5640 and correction through gap down opening after negative political news flow. As political uncertainity will remain continued and Indian markets will react also accordingly as well as volatility will remain high and trader's stop losses will also trigger therefore cautious approach is required.

As strong up moves in previous weeks therefore its correction was required and being seen today on the back of political uncertainity. Next support is at 5527 and this levels should be watched for correction completion confirmation. 

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 20-09-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Sep-2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day slow down moves in Falling Channel.
2- Whole day acual trading between 5593-5619

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day slow down moves in Falling Channel and it is consolidation formation but political uncertainity today and rolling back of possibility of previous week reform decisions therefore correction possibility is also turning alive because intraday higher levels selling was also seen on 17-09-2012.

Last 2 sessions trading between 5586-5640 with confirm higher levels selling. As yesterday intraday charts are showing consolidation indications therefore correction beginning confirmation is required through sustaining below 5586 after above mentioned negative news flow.