Bulls will welcome in Next Week

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Aug 13 to Aug 17,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-08-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally beginning from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Impulsive Wave1-1 completion and corrective Wave-2 beginning from 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
3- Corrective Wave1-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning from 4770.35 on 04-06-2012.
4- Sub Wave-1 correction of impulsive Wave-3 beginning
5- Sub Wave-2 correction of impulsive Wave-3 copmletion.
6- Sub Wave-2 correction of impulsive Wave-3 copmletion.
7- Sub Wave-3 of impulsive Wave-3 continuation
8- Upward cross over in MACD
9- Sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA and 200-Day EMA

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

All trends are up and and Sub Wave-3 of impulsive Wave-3 is continued. Very short term correction is on for the last 3 sessions which got support at rising trend line on 10-08-2012.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 Sessions Intra Day Chart

(Aug 13 to Aug 17,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 13 to Aug 17,2012):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5338-5346 on 08-08-2012.
2- Down moves in Falling Channel without much selling and showing consolidation indications on 09-08-2012.
3- Support between 5313-5323 on 09-08-2012.
4- Support between 5295-5312 on 10-08-2012.

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although markets slipped in last 2 days but intraday supports seen daily and falling patterns are showing consolidation formations. Finally intraday supports at lower levels was seen on 10-08-2012 also therefore expected that last 3 sessions are only corrective moves and strong indications of correction completion also.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Indian markets are Bullish after sustaining above  200-Day SMA and  200-Day EMA but very short term correction is on for the last 3 sessions. Correction completion strong indications after good support at lower levels on 10-08-2012 and finally sustaining above 5323 will be correction completion confirmation. As  last 3 sessionsintraday charts are showing most time consolidations and lower levels supports also seen therefore correction completion almost confirmation.

Expected that Bull will welcome in next week and finally strong rally above 5377 will be seen as well as levels near 5600 are expected.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-Aug-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- White Candle.
3- Consolidation patterns formations

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.12
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-Aug-2012): 17.34

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1143
BSE Declines : 1620
NSE Advances :  548
NSE Declines :  874

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5100 CE(Aug)- -21,200(-1.15%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Aug)- 235,000(3.08%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Aug)- -54,100(-1.70%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Aug)- 612,600(8.88%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Aug)- 117,750(2.95%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Aug)- -88,500(-1.30%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Aug)- -252,750(-3.26%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Aug)- 97,600(3.66%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Aug)- 35,000(0.41%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Aug)- 26,950(2.40%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,320.40(-2.55 Points & -0.05%)
Sensex- closed at 17,557.74(-3.13 Points & -0.02% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,239.65(-07.75 Points & -0.11%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,549.77(-18.86 Points & -0.29%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-Aug-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 10-Aug-2012 2373.23 2290.07 83.16

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 10-Aug-2012 786.3 1322.99 -536.69

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-08-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5371
R2 5350
R1 5335
Avg 5314
S1 5299
S2 5278
S3 5263

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5356     Trgt 2
H5 5347     Trgt 1
H4 5339     Long breakout
H3 5329     Go Short
H2 5326
H1 5323
L1 5316
L2 5313
L3 5310     Long
L4 5300     Short Breakout
L5 5292     Trgt 1
L6 5283     Trgt 2

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-08-2012

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 5401
R2 5380
R1 5362
Avg 5341
S1 5323
S2 5302
S3 5284

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5384     Trgt 2
H5 5375     Trgt 1
H4 5366     Long breakout
H3 5355     Go Short
H2 5352
H1 5348
L1 5341
L2 5337
L3 5334     Long
L4 5323     Short Breakout
L5 5314     Trgt 1
L6 5305     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-08-2012

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 10643
R2 10566
R1 10495
Avg 10418
S1 10347
S2 10270
S3 10199

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10573     Trgt 2
H5 10539     Trgt 1
H4 10505     Long breakout
H3 10464     Go Short
H2 10451
H1 10437
L1 10410
L2 10396
L3 10383     Long
L4 10342     Short Breakout
L5 10308     Trgt 1
L6 10274     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Aug 13 to Aug 17,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5495
R2 5436
R1 5378
Avg 5319
S1 5261
S2 5202
S3 5144

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy

H6 5438     Trgt 2
H5 5411     Trgt 1
H4 5384     Long breakout
H3 5352     Go Short
H2 5341
H1 5330
L1 5309
L2 5298
L3 5287     Long
L4 5255     Short Breakout
L5 5228     Trgt 1
L6 5201     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Aug 13 to Aug 17,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10945
R2 10793
R1 10576
Avg 10424
S1 10207
S2 10055
S3 9838

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10731     Trgt 2
H5 10646     Trgt 1
H4 10561     Long breakout
H3 10460     Go Short
H2 10426
H1 10392
L1 10325
L2 10291
L3 10257     Long
L4 10156     Short Breakout
L5 10071     Trgt 1
L6  9986     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(10-08-2012)

As all the Asian and European markets were trading in Red as well as Dow's Futures was also more than 60 points down therefore Indian markets slipped after weak opening but consolidated at lower levels and got intraday support also between 5295-5312. Intraday consolidation patterns signals were seen yesterday also therefore it seems that indian markets are correcting in range bound mode.

Although lower levels supports today but confirmation is required through sustaining above 5312. Nifty got support between 5313-5323 yesterday and finally sustaining above 5323 will be correction completion confirmation. Although Indian markets slipped after mid session sharp surge but slipping patterns are also showing consolidation formations therefore final up moves hopes are alive if Nifty sustains above 5312.

I mentioned following fear in Pre-open Outlook today and repeating it again:-

US markets are flat for the last 5 sessions with intraday charts selling formations therefore big fall there can not be ruled out there and that may trigger global stock markets crash also. Just keep in mind and remain watchful.

Pre-open Outlook(10-08-2012)

Although US markets closed flat yesterday but most Asian markets are trading in Red today morning and sentiment turning weak therefore Indian markets may open weak. Intraday support was seen between 5313-5323 yesterday and sustaining below it will be correction confirmation.

US markets are flat for the last 5 sessions with intraday charts selling formations therefore big fall there can not be ruled out there and that may trigger global stock markets crash also. Just keep in mind and remain watchful.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(10-08-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Aug-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Falling Channel without much selling and showing consolidation indications
2- Support between 5313-5323
3- Whole day trading between 5313-5368

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Most of the time down moves without much selling and showing consolidation signals,except this lower levels intraday supports also therefore on going rally continuation hopes are alive despite lower levels closing today.

Both selling and buying positions in last 2 sessions within 5,313-5377 and sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next moves confirmations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(09-Aug-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Black Candle.
3- Whole day slipping after positive opening.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.07
Nifty P/E Ratio(09-Aug-2012): 17.35

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1114
BSE Declines : 1670
NSE Advances :  465
NSE Declines :  959

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Aug)- 2,650(0.26%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Aug)- -93,550(-0.88%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Aug)- 3,900(0.21%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Aug)- 113,400(1.51%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Aug)- -117,400(-3.56%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Aug)- -57,300(-0.82%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Aug)- 630,100(8.85%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Aug)- 176,950(2.68%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Aug)- -367,200(-4.14%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Aug)- 67,500(2.60%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,322.95(-15.05 Points & -0.28%)
Sensex- closed at 17,560.87(-39.69 Points & -0.23% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,247.40(-024.85 Points & -0.34%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,568.63(-27.24 Points & -0.41%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 09-Aug-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 09-Aug-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 09-Aug-2012 2272.94 1935.8 337.14

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 09-Aug-2012 989.78 1744.18 -754.4

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-08-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5412
R2 5390
R1 5356
Avg 5334
S1 5300
S2 5278
S3 5244

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5378     Trgt 2
H5 5365     Trgt 1
H4 5352     Long breakout
H3 5337     Go Short
H2 5332
H1 5327
L1 5316
L2 5311
L3 5306     Long
L4 5291     Short Breakout
L5 5278     Trgt 1
L6 5265     Trgt 2

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-08-2012

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 5418
R2 5401
R1 5366
Avg 5349
S1 5314
S2 5297
S3 5262

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5384     Trgt 2
H5 5372     Trgt 1
H4 5360     Long breakout
H3 5346     Go Short
H2 5341
H1 5336
L1 5327
L2 5322
L3 5317     Long
L4 5303     Short Breakout
L5 5291     Trgt 1
L6 5280     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-08-2012

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 10763
R2 10701
R1 10603
Avg 10541
S1 10443
S2 10381
S3 10283

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10665     Trgt 2
H5 10629     Trgt 1
H4 10593     Long breakout
H3 10549     Go Short
H2 10534
H1 10519
L1 10490
L2 10475
L3 10461     Long
L4 10417     Short Breakout
L5 10380     Trgt 1
L6 10344     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-08-2012)

We are telling again and again that Indian markets are taking positions and next trend confirmation will be after sustaining beyond 5330-5365. Nifty is hovering around mentioned range and preparing for next decisive big moves.

Nifty moved above 5365 yesterday but could not sustain and again moved within mentioned range after forming top at 5377.60. Nifty moved below 5330 today but again trading within mentioned range at 5334.45 after forming low at 5,312.80.

Both selling and buying positions in last 2 sessions within 5,313-5377 and sustaining it beyond will be watched in the coming sessions for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-3(09-08-2012)

Nifty moved below 5330 after Dow's Futures slipping more than 50 points and most European markets turning  in Red.  As  sharp forceful moving below 5330 therefore given breaking down almost confirmation. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(09-08-2012)

We gave lower level of 5330 on 07-08-2012 and Nifty moved up from this level in last 2 sessions. Lowest of last 2 sessions are as follows:-

1- 08-08-2012- 5,331.05
2- 09-08-2012(at 01:15 PM)- 5,330.25

As selling signals yesterday therefore we showed doubts on immediate up moves and Nifty slipped also today from 5368.20 to 5,330.25.

Although Indian markets are slipping after negative IIP data intraday charts are showing consolidation signals therefore Nifty surged more than 15 points after forming low at 5,330.25.

Indian markets are taking positions for next decisive trend within 5330-5365 and sustaining beyond 5330-5365 will be automatic next trend confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(09-08-2012)

Only narrow range of 35 points(5330-5365) was given in previous Outlooks and Nifty traded most time within this range today.Although IIP at -1.8%(MoM) and below expectation also but market did not declined sharply and trading in positive zone.  

Market slipped from intraday higher levels today but intraday patterns are showing consolidation signals also and generating up moves continuation hopes but finally sustaining beyond 5330-5365 will be next moves confirmation..