11413.85 will confirm Rally continuation or 5 Waves Correction after Budget

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 29 to Feb 02,2018)

Waves structure from 27-10-2008

Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 after 2008 big correction completion 
2- Impulsive Wave 1(6338.50 on 05-11-2010) completion and corrective  Wave 2 beginning 
3- Wave 1 gained 4085.75 points
4- Corrective Wave-2(4531.15 on 20-12-2011) completion and impulsive Wave 3 beginning 
5- Impulsive Wave 3(9119.20 on 04-03-2015) completion and corrective  Wave 4 beginning
6- Wave 3 gained 4588.05 points
7- Corrective Wave-4(6825.80 on 29-02-2016) completion and impulsive Wave 5 beginning 
8- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 11110.10 on 24-01-2018
9- On going impulsive Wave-5 has gained 4284.30 points till 24-01-2018

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Indian markets are very much on with continuous new life time high formations and recent top formation at 11110.10 on 24-01-2018. As all the indicators from very Short to Long are overbought therefore correction is very much due but indicators remains overbought long time during Bull markets and until complete selling pattterns will not develop on EOD cahrts till then any deeper correction will not be seen.

Indian markets are tend to move in 7/8 years time cycles in following manner:-

1- In Apr 1992 -Rally finished after Harshad Mehta scam
2- In Jan 2000 -IT Rally finished after Ketan Parikh scam 
3- In Jan 2008 -Rally finished after Lehman brothers scam 

On going rally started in Apr 2009 after 2008 Correction completion at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 and 5 months sideways consolidation. Now on going rally is more than 9 years old and time wise correction is also due.

Calculation of maximum target of Nifty at 11413.85 as follows:-                                                                                 
As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3  gained.

Impulsive Wave-1 gained=4085.75 points(6338.50-2252.75)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=4588.05 points(9119.20-4531.15)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 4284.30 points till 24-01-2018(11110.10-6825.80)

As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained therefore on going impulsive Wave-5 will gain lesser points than 4588.05.

Impulsive Wave-5 started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and it has to gain less than 4588.05 points therefore maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-5 is 11413.85(6825.80+4588.05)

As Union Budget on 1st Feb 2018 and its announcements will form next decisive moves but firstly sustaining beyond 11413.85 should be watched in the coming weeks after Budget because 11413.85 is most crucial. As per Elliott Wave theory if Nifty sustains above it then Waves structure from 27-10-2008 will be recounted and sustaining below it will mean 5 waves correction of whole rally from 2252.75 to any highest below 11413.85.

Let complete selling patterns develop on EOD charts and correction beginning confirmation come then lower levels will be updated after rally top formation confirmations.

समस्त भारतीयों को गणतन्त्र दिवस की हार्दिक शुभकामनायें 

Wishing you all Indians Happy Republic Day

Rally continuation expectations after follow up consolidations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(25-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Whole day sideways trading between 11047-11109

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Whole day sideways trading and flat closing today but some consolidation was also seen through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore signals of rally continuation above today highest. 

As Very Short Term indicators are overbought therefore Very Short Term correction is very much due and it was seen today through sideways trading with some consolidation but expected that finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidation within and near about today trading range.  

Rally continuation with only Very Short Term correction expectations 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(24-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 11028-11050
2- Consolidation between 11050-11092
3- Whole day actual trading between 10995-11092

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Bullish rally is very much on and until complete selling will not develop till then rally will remain continued because intraday consolidation patterns formations today. As Very Short Term indicators are overbought therefore only Very Short Term correction will be considered which may be sen any day.

As busy in a marriage therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(23-01-2018) is not being updated.

Fresh rally after Very Short Term correction

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(22-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 10818-10857
2- Last hour Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 10794-10906

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 17-01-2018 in "Rally continuation Expectations":-

rally continuation will be seen because no selling patterns formations today. 

Although rally remained continued in both previous sessions after 17-01-2018 and last Friday closing also at life time highest after gaining 0.72% points but some selling was also seen in last hour through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore Very Short Term correction is expected before fresh rally in the beginning of next week because Short Term indicators are overbought. 

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(19-01-2018) is not being updated.

Rally continuation Expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Supports at lower level
1- Consolidation between 10716-10760
3- Whole day actual trading between 10667-10803

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Just Watch Crucial Levels for next decisive moves confirmations":-

As lower levels conolidation and higher levels selling in last 2 sessions between 10688-10782 therefore Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this crucial range 

Nifty consolidated more than 4 hours within mentioned range between 10716-10760 and closed at life timed highest therefore rally continuation will be seen because no selling patterns formations today. 

Just Watch Crucial Levels for next decisive moves confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 10739-10762
2- Selling between 10737-10747
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last 2 hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 10688-10762

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although strong closing after whole day positive zone trading yesterday but we cautioned and told following lines in "Levels will confirm next decisive moves":-

sustaining below today lowest will mean Short term correction beginning which should be firstly watched tomorrow.

Although today closing was below yesterday lowest after higher levels selling but consolidation was also seen in last 2 hours through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore today trading will be understood with Mixed patterns formations. 

As lower levels conolidation and higher levels selling in last 2 sessions between 10688-10782 therefore Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this crucial range and finally sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for Short term correction beginning or on going rally continuation.

Levels will confirm next decisive moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Minor selling in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 10714-10782

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day positive zone trading after gap up opening and strong closing as well but both consolidation and selling patterns formations also therefore firstly market has to prepare for next decisive moves within and near about today trading range and finally sustaining beyond will confirm Short term correction below 10714 and on going rally continuation above 10782.

As Short term indicators are over bought and some selling also seen today therefore follow selling and sustaining below today lowest will mean Short term correction beginning which should be firstly watched tomorrow.

Rally Continuation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(14-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns formation between 10672-10690
2- Up moves with intraday corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 10598-10690

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 11-01-2018 in "Rally continuation expectations after follow up consolidation":-

1- firstly follow up consolidation is required within or near about today trading range
2- then finally rally continuation will be expected

As there was some selling in first 4 sessions of previous week therefore we continuously daily told for the requirement of follow up consolidation and it was seen last Friday through slipping towards the lowest of previous week and consolidating.

Although first 3 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation but last 3 hours consolidation through Up moves with intraday corrections last Friday therefore rally continuation will be expected and until complete fresh selling will not develop till then decisive down moves will not be seen despite over bought Short term indicators.

Rally continuation expectations after follow up consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(12-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 10613-10624
2- Up moves with follow up consolidation
3- Mixed Patterns formation between 10648-10664
4- Whole day actual trading between 10613-10664

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Short Term correction was expected but as soon as consolidation developed then we cautioned at 10:45 AM in "Mid-session Outlook(11-01-2018)" and after that whole day up moves were seen after follow up consolidation. 

As Mixed Patterns formations at higher levels after lower levels good consolidation therefore firstly follow up consolidation is required within or near about today trading range and then finally rally continuation will be expected. Short Term indicators have turned overbought therefore view will be cautious but until complete selling will not develop and Nifty will not sustain below today lowest till then decisive down moves will not be seen. 

Mid-session Outlook(11-01-2018)

Although most time negative zone trading since opening today but some consolidation was also seen at lower levels of the day therefore firstly valid break down of today lowest(10613.35) should be watched today for first strong signal of Short term correction beginning.

Short Term correction expectations after follow up selling

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(11-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 10631-10642
2- Support between 10593-10612
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 10593-10642

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed positive near the highest levels of the day with new life time highest formations yesterday but we told following lines yesterday in "Levels will confirm Short Term correction":-

1- Last 2 sessions trading was between 10597-10647 with both buying and selling patterns formations 
2- only selling patterns were seen today
3- firstly valid break down of this range should be watched in the next 1/2 sessions for Short Term correction beginning. 

Nifty slipped bellow 10597 today but got supports just below it at 10592.70 and recocovered. As selling was seen between 10631-10642 immediately after opening and selling patterns formations through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour also therefore Short Term correction beginning possibility is still alive and firstly sustaining below 10593 should be watched in the coming sessions for its confirmations. 

As Short Term indicators have turned overbought and selling is being seen in last 3 sessions also therefore Short Term correction is expected in the coming sessions but follow up selling is must between 10593-10647.

Levels will confirm Short Term correction

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(10-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 10604-10647

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As mixed patterns formations therefore following lines were told yesterday in "Rally continuation expectations after follow up consolidation":-

1- Mixed Patterns formation therefore some consolidation is firstly required for decisive up moves
2- Although minor selling patterns formations but view will not be Bearish
3- until complete selling patterns will not develop till then any type of correction will not be seen
4- Rally continuation expectations are very much alive but after follow up consolidation.

Rally remained continued through Green closing today but follow up consolidation was not seen and selling patterns developed also through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels therefore follow up selling tomorrow will mean Short Term correction beginning.

Last 2 sessions trading was between 10597-10647 with both buying and selling patterns formations but only selling patterns were seen today therefore firstly valid break down of this range should be watched in the next 1/2 sessions for Short Term correction beginning. 

Rally continuation expectations after follow up consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(09-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns formation between 10597-10623
2- Whole day actual trading between 10597-10631

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Bullish rally is on and whole day strong trading today after gap up opening but with Mixed Patterns formation therefore some consolidation is firstly required for decisive up moves. Although minor selling patterns formations but view will not be Bearish because consolidation patterns were also seen and until complete selling patterns will not develop till then any type of correction will not be seen.

Rally continuation expectations are very much alive but after follow up consolidation.

As out of station therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(08-01-2018) is not being updated.

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(05-01-2018) is not being updated.

Next trend confirmations from crucial levels

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(04-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Jan-2018):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Last hour consolidation between 10430-10450
4- Whole day actual trading between 10430-10503

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although today closing was near the lower levels of the day after whole day slipping from higher levels but completele selling patterns were not seen and consolidation with lower levels supports also developed therefore whole day today trading will be understood with Moxed patterns formations. 

As lower levels some supports and higher levels strong resistances are lying between 10406-10552 therefore firstly Nifty has to trade and prepare for next decisive moves between this crucial range and finally sustaining beyond it will form next trend which should be watched in the coming sessions for confirmations.

Firstly watch Level for the life of on going correction  

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Slipping in first hour after positive opening.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 10405-10493

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Correction continuation expectations towards next supports":-

1- next supports below 10427 are up to 10406 
2- firstly sustaining beyond 10406 should be watched for on going correction continuation 

Next supports were told up to 10406 and Nifty got support at 10404.65 before closing at 10442.20 today. As some consolidation was also seen through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels today therefore firstly sustaining beyond 10406 should be watched in the coming sessions for the life of on going correction.  

Correction continuation expectations towards next supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(02-01-2018)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jan-2018):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours selling between 10505-10537
2- Sharp fall in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 10423-10537

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told in previous two Outlooks:-

1- Short term correction beginning may be seen any day  
2- which may slip towards next supports between 10427-10458  

As was told 100% same happened and Short term correction was seen on 1st Jan 2018 towards next supports(10427-10458) and closing was within it at 10435.55.

As closing was below previous 8 sessions closing and next supports below 10427 are up to 10406 therefore firstly sustaining beyond 10406 should be watched for on going correction continuation towards next supports between 10320-10350. 

Correction is on and its continuation is expected towards above mentioned next supports.