Firstly Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 03 to Oct 07,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016) 
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(8294.95 on 07-06-2016)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(7927.05 on 24-06-2016)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8968.70 on 07-09-2016)
7- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8556 on 30-09-2016

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8556 and no confirmation of its completion yet.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(30-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Up moves with intraday corrections in last hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 9556-8637

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although sentiment was nervours due to Indo Pak border tension but whole day consolidation was seen through intraday corrections and Bullish Falling Channel formations last Friday therefore up moves are expected in the beginning of next week. 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up and will be down below 8477.
3- Short Term Trend down.

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8770-8793
1- 8854-8873
2- 8874-8902
3- 8935-8956

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8477-8580(Multiple and strong supports)

Multiple and strong supports between 8476-8580 were updated on 25-09-2016 in "Firstly Watch Immediate Supports for First Indication" and Nifty got supports within this range last Friday therefore this supports range has become stronger and until Nifty will not sustain below 8477 after complete selling till then fresh decisive down moves will not be seen.

As follow up consolidation last Friday within above mentioned supports range therefore firstly Pull Back Rally towards 8770 will be seen in the beginning of next week. Now Nifty will be understood sideways between 8477-8956 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next trend which should also be watched for its confirmations. As Ceasefire violation by Pakistan and volatility may be high due to it in next week therefore traders should be cautious because Stop Loss triggering risk may also be high.

Firstly Watch next Supports after Indian surgical strike on POK 

Market Outlook(30-09-2016)

As trading after 12 PM on 30-09-2016 was the reaction of Indian surgical strike on POK and not on technicals therefore intraday charts analysis is not being updated and next supports between 8476-8580 are being posted which should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for on going correction continuation/completion because supports within this range are multiple and strong.

Rally continuation towards next Resistances

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(29-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with intraday corrections
2- Whole day actual trading between 8704-8767

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although all the Asian markets were trading in Red but firstly flat opening of Indian markets and whole day up moves with intraday corrections and today closing above mentioned supports range(8695-8736) therefore rally continuation is expected towards next resistances( 8854-8902). 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 
Outlook(28-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 5 Hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8726-8760
2- Down moves in last hour after sharp down of European markets and Dow's Futures 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8691-8760

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As firstly trading with Mixed Patterns formations therefore down moves in last hours after sharp down of European markets and Dow's Futures but getting supports just below next supports range(8695-8736) and some recovery from lower levels in last minutes.

As more than 5 hours no clear pattern formations therefore Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves but fresh selling in the coming trading session will mean sharp 100 points fall because next support are between 8476-8580. Day's closing is within supports range(8695-8736) at 8706.40 and firstly its valid break out should be watched for first signal of correction completion above 8736 or sharp fall below 8695.

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today is not being updated

Firstly Watch Immediate Supports for First Indication

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 26 to Sep 30,2016)

Previous 16 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 31 to Sep 23,2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 18 Sessions intraday charts

1- Hiigher levels selling and lower levels buying in last 16 sessions
2- 16 Sessions actual trading between 8689-8969 

Conclusions from 16 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As last 16 Sessions sideways trading between 8689-8969 with higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore firstly Nifty has to trade and prepare for next decisive moves beyond this range in the beginning of coming week and valid break of this range will confirm length of on going correction.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(23-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8854-8873
2- Whole day actual trading between 8821-8873

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As nervousness due to conflict possibility on Pakistan border and selling developed immediate after opening between 8821-8873 as well as closing near the lower levels of the day therefore this range will be immediate resistance of Nifty. Until Nifty will not sustain above 8873 after complete fresh consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen and some more down moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week. 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

EOD chart analysis of Nifty was updated in previous weekly analysis in "Firstly Watch Immediate Supports for the Life and Length of on going correction" and not being updated today because no material change in its structure in previous week.

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8854-8873
2- 8874-8902
3- 8935-8956

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8761-8781
2- 8695-8736
3- 8476-8580(Multiple and strong supports)

Post Budget 1916-1917 rally is having character of fresh moves after consolidation within sideways market without any deeper correction and again previous 16 Sessions sideways trading between 8689-8969 with higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore firstly valid break of this range should be watched because on going correction completion possibility within this range can not be ruled out. As sufficiently strong supports and resistances within this range therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves between 8689-8969 which will be done in next week and finally this range will confirm the life,length and depth of on going correction.

Fresh selling last Friday and no consolidation yet after that therefore some more down moves are expected towards immediate supports(8761-8781) which will give first indication regarding the length of on going correction and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week. 

Rally Continuation after Follow up Consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(23-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 8838-8858
3- Up moves with intraday corrections in last hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 8838-8893

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As blasting global markets today morning and in reaction huge gap up opening as well as whole day consolidation patterns formations therefore today started rally continuation is expected. Next resistances are as follows:-

1- 8874-8902
2- 8935-8956

Follow up consolidation within and near about mentioned resistances as well as valid break out of 8956 will confirm rally continuation which should also be watched in the coming 1/2 sessions.

8836 will Confirm Post FOMC Big Moves 

Pre-open Outlook(22-09-2016)

As only intraday volatility and as such one sided patterns formations were not seen and Indian markets completely under performed most Global markets yesterday therefore correction continuation below yesterday lowest(8758) was expected but US and all the Asian markets blasted after no rates hike and dovish statement by FOMC yesterday night.

1- Fed decision: Here’s how the S&P 500 performs historically
2- Stocks rally into the close as the Fed stands pat on interest rates

(Just click above topic links and go through news)

Certainly most Bullish sentiment today morning therefore in reaction strong opening of Indian markets will also be seen and valid break out of those crucial levels highest(8736-8836) will confirm next big moves which were updated on 20-09-2016 in "Post FOMC One Sided Big Moves Confirmations from Crucial Levels".

Correction Continuation Despite Whatsoever Announcements by FOMC Tonight

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(22-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Sep-2016):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Only Volatility
2- Whole day actual trading between 8758-8826

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Post FOMC One Sided Big Moves Confirmations from Crucial Levels":-

As mixed patterns formations today therefore Nifty has to prepare for post FOMC next big moves and that will be firstly done between crucial levels(8736-8836) tomorrow.

As was told 100% same happened today and Nifty traded whole day today within mentioned crucial levels(8736-8836) between 8758-8826 as well as prepared for post FOMC big moves on 22-09-2016.

Although most Asian markets closed in Green and some with good gains but Indian markets completely under performed all the Global markets today because most European markets were also trading with good gains and Dow's Futures was more than 60 points up during Indian trading hours.

Only intraday volatility developed and as such one sided patterns formations were not seen today but Indian markets completely under performed most Global markets therefore good selling on the back of strong Global markets can not be ruled out and resultant correction continuation below today lowest(8758) are expected in the coming sessions despite whatsoever announcements by FOMC tonight but high volatility can not be ruled out tomorrow on FOMC reactions.

Next supports below today lowest are between 8695-8736 and once its valid break down will mean sharp fall towards and below 8544. 

Post FOMC One Sided Big Moves Confirmations from Crucial Levels

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(21-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8760-8791
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Minor selling at higher levels 
4- Whole day actual trading between 8760-8816

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were yesterday in "Emergence of correction continuation signal":-

emergence of correction continuation signal below day's lowest(8775) 

When US and European markets were trading strong and Nifty closed 0.33% positive yesterday then we told for Correction continuation below 8775 and it was seen with today lowest formation at 8759.30.

Although 0.37% down closing after most time negative zone trading today but only intraday selling patterns were not seen and consolidation patterns were also developed therefore today trading will be understood with mixed Patterns formations between 8760-8791 and firstly Nifty has to prepare for decisive moves beyond this range. 

Next resistances above 8791 are as follows:-

1- 8836-8847
2- 8874-8902
3- 8935-8956

Next supports below 8760 are as follows:-

1- 8695-8736
2- 8514-8580(Multiple and strong supports)

As mixed patterns formations today therefore Nifty has to prepare for post FOMC next big moves and that will be firstly done between crucial levels(8736-8836) tomorrow. Certainly those decisive big moves will be firstly decided from intraday charts patterns formations tomorrow and valid break out mentioned crucial levels which should be watched in the coming sessions for one sided big moves confirmations after FOMC announcements on 22-09-2016

Emergence of correction continuation signal

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(20-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling patterns formation between 8806-8824
2- Whole day actual trading between 8775-8824

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although almost whole day positive zone trading and 0.33% positive closing also but intraday charts are showing only selling patterns formation therefore view will be cautious because it is emergence of correction continuation signal below day's lowest(8775) despite strong moves in US and European markets today.

Firstly Watch Immediate Supports for the Life and Length of on going correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 19 to Sep 23,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016) 
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(8294.95 on 07-06-2016)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(7927.05 on 24-06-2016)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8968.70 on 07-09-2016)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8688.90 on 14-09-2016

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8688.90 and no confirmation of its completion yet.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(16-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 40 Points up in first minute after gap up opening
2- Mixed Patterns between 8820-8847
3- Sharp down after weakness beginning in European markets and Dow's Futures
3- Whole day actual trading between 8751-8847

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

40 Points up in first minute after gap up opening and higher levels 4 hours Mixed Patterns formations also but sharp down after weakness beginning in European markets and Dow's Futures.

As deep Red closing of most European markets and sufficient weakness in US markets also last Friday therefore negative zone trading may be seen in Indian markets next Monday. As higher levels Mixed Patterns between 8820-8847 last Friday and Global markets may also remain depressed next Monday therefore on going correction continuation is expected in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up and will be down below 8477.
3- Short Term Trend down.

Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-3 continuation which will firstly correct Wave-iii of Wave-3 according to following retracement levels:-

Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-iii of Wave-3(7927-8968):-

1- 13.0%- 8832(Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8722(Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 8686(Almost retraced on 14-09-2016) with bottom formation at 8688.90
4- 38.2%- 8570(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 8447(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 8324(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 8232
8- 76.4%- 8172
9- 78.6%- 8149
10-88.6%- 8045

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8935-8956
2- 8874-8902
3- 8836-8847

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8695-8736
2- 8514-8580(Multiple and strong supports)

Correction is on and its continuation signals after sufficiently good selling at higher levels in previous week and Global markets weakness as well but lower levels good consolidation between 8695-8736 in previous week therefore this range will be immediate support of Nifty and its valid break down will mean sharp fall towards 8544.

Huge fall on 12-09-2016 after Global markets crash due to rates hike expectations by FOMC on 21-09-2016 and expected that Nifty will firstly prepare for post FOMC decisive moves between and near about immediate supports(8695-8736) therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in next week for the life and length of on going correction. 

Emergence of Fresh Up Moves Expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8730-8745
2- Consolidation between 8705-8724
3- Mixed Patterns formations in last hour between 8729-8740
4- Whole day actual trading between 8705-8751

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although slipping after first hour selling but lower levels good consolidation also between 8705-8724 therefore recovery from lower levels and closing near the higher levels of the day. As Mixed Patterns formations in last hour also therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for decisive up moves above today highest(8751)

Selling below 8746 last Monday and lower levels supports above 8689 in last 2 sessions therefore emergence of fresh up moves expectations above 8751 and once sustaining above it will mean strong signal of 7th Sep started correction completion at 8689 and fresh rally beginning towards 8968.

As next FOMC led Global markets high volatility and rates hike news led uncertainty also therefore confirmation is firstly required through sustaining above last 3 sessions highest(8751)

Firstly Watch 8689-8746 for next Trend Confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(15-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8725-8736
2- Support between 8689-8712
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8689-8739

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although selling immediately after opening and Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels also but lower levels good supports were also seen therefore today closing near the higher levels of the day. As selling was seen below 8746 last Monday and supports above 8689 today therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8689-8746 should be watched for next trend confirmations for:-

1- Strong signal of on going correction completion above 8746.
2- Correction continuation towards 8544 below 8689.

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today is not being updated but Mid-session Outlook may be posted during trading hours.

Firstly Watch Next Strong Supports after Gap Down Opening

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(12-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8900-8922
2- Support between 8863-8888
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 8859-8922

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 12:05 AM on 08-09-2016 in "Very Short Term Down Moves Expectations":-

clear Selling patterns formation also between 8935-8956 therefore Very Short Term down moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Following lines were told at 08:20 PM on 08-09-2016 in "Very Short Term Correction Expectations":-

Very Short Term correction is still expected in the coming sessions despite today closing near the higher levels of the day today.  

Only Down Moves and Correction was told in  last 2 Outlooks which proved 100% accurate last Friday through Nifty slipping 38 points in first minute and closing 85 points down also after whole day negative zone trading.

Firstly selling after weak opening and after that sharp fall as well but lower levels some supports and last hour Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore day's intraday patterns will be understood Mixed. As both intraday selling and consolidation patterns formations last Friday therefore sustaining beyond day's actual trading range(8859-8922) should be firstly watched in the coming week for next decisive moves.

As US markets closed in deep Red last Friday therefore huge gap down opening may be seen next Monday but next strong supports are lying between 8768-8818 which will decide the fate of last Friday started correction.

Very Short Term Correction Expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(09-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Whole day actual trading between 8896-8960

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day up moves after more than 1 hour negative zone trading but in Bearish Rising Channel therefore  Very Short Term correction is still expected in the coming sessions despite today closing near the higher levels of the day today. 

Very Short Term Down Moves Expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day actual trading between 8914-8968
2- Selling patterns formation between 8935-8956

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although positive opening but not sustaining at highet levels and slipping fast in first 30 minutes and clear Selling patterns formation also between 8935-8956 therefore Very Short Term down moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 
Outlook(07-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 4 hours slow up moves
2- Fast Up  moves in last hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8849-8950

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly more than 40 points gap up opening and after that slow up moves which may be a selling indication but after that fast Up  moves also in last hours therefore as such no one sided intraday position formations today. 

As complete selling was not seen and whole day strong rally continuation therefore more up moves can not be ruled out in the coming sessions because strong rally is on and as such no intraday selling yet.

It must be kept in mind that until clear and complete fresh selling patterns formations will not develop till then correction will not be seen,let it happen then correction beginning will be considered despite overbought indicators.

8824 will confirm Rally Continuation towards 9764.10 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 06 to Sep 09,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (02-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(8294.95 on 07-06-2016)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(7927.05 on 24-06-2016)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8824.10 on 02-09-2016)

Intra Day Chart Analysis(02-09-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Sep-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8769-8787
2- Mixed Patterns formations in last hours between 8805-8824 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8769-8824

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 10:08 AM on 02-09-2016 in "Post-open Outlook(02-09-2016)":-

1- some indications of consolidation in first 50 minutes today
2- therefore sustaining below yesterday lowest(8760) should be firstly watched for fresh down moves.

Firstly some indications of consolidation in first 50 minutes and after that follow up consolidation between 8769-8787 therefore it will be immediate support of Nifty and until Nifty will not sustain below 8760 after fresh selling till then decisive down moves will not be seen.  

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Following lines were told on 16-08-2016 in "Valid break out last 18 sessions sideways trading range will confirm next trend":-

Nifty should not move above 8810.80 otherwise Waves will be counted in that manner which has been updated in previously Weekly Analysis topics. 

As Nifty had moved above 8810.80 in previous week therefore Waves of Post Budget 1916-1917 Rally is being counted in above mentioned manner because that will be applicable now.

Nifty traded 28 sessions between 8518-8728 and this range was broken out 30-08-2016 as well as closed above it in all 3 sessions after that therefore all trends are up. Although some selling on 31st Aug and 01 Sep but lower levels good consolidation was also seen on 02-09-2016 therefore rally continuation hopes are alive and once valid break out of last 3 sessions highest(8824) will mean on going rally continuation towards next target(9764.10). Just click following topic link which was posted on 10-07-2016 and understand the calculation of mentioned target:-

8295/8398 Will Confirm Nifty Target at and above 9764.10

Now Wave-iii of Wave-3 is on and as per Elliott Wave theory Wave-3 of any degree can gain maximum points therefore high possibility of rally continuation and for precaution and confirmations only watch valid break out of last 3 sessions highest(8824).  

Post-open Outlook(02-09-2016)

As intraday selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions therefore not sustaining at higher levels and slipping as well but some indications of consolidation in first 50 minutes today therefore sustaining below yesterday lowest(8760) should be firstly watched for fresh down moves.