Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook(03-06-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 5 Hours trading with Mixed Patterns between 8155-8185 
2- Slow up moves in last hours 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8155-8229

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Last 3 sessions sideways trading with mixed patterns formations between 8144-8215 and this range was broken out today but without force because last hours up moves which crossed 8215 were slow today. As first 5 hours today trading was also with mixed patterns formations therefore last 3 sessions break out confirmation is still required through sustaining above 8215/8229.

Although today closing near the higher levels of the day above last 3 sessions trading range(8144-8215) but immediate fresh rally will be understood only after the confirmation of sustaining above 8215/8229,let it happen otherwise Nifty will remain sideways between 8144-8215/8229.

Intra Day Charts Analysis & Market Outlook(02-06-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 30 to Jun 01,2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Last 3 sessions sideways trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8144-8215
2- 3 Sessions trading between 8135-8215

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 29-05-2016 in "Minimum Target of Nifty at 8844.55" and repeated in the Outlooks of last 2 sessions also:-

finally last week started rally will remain continued towards 8844.55 with only very Short Term and sideways corrections.

Sideways correction has been seen in last 3 sessions through 71 points range bound markets between 8144-8215.  As one sided clear patterns formations were not seen and selling/consolidation both patterns has been developed in last 3 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will trade within 8135-8215 and prepare for next decisive big moves beyond this range. 

Let Nifty prepare then will be updated after the analysis of coming sessions intraday charts and final confirmation of  next decisive moves will be after sustaining beyond 8135-8215.

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook (01-06-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Last 6 hours sideways trading with Mixed Patterns between 8144-8182 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8135-8213

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As same intraday pattern formations like yesterday therefore 100% same view which was updated in following topic yesterday:-

8151-8200 will confirm next Decisive Moves

Only minor changes will be regarding levels because today trading was little wider than yesterday therefore valid break out of today trading range(8135-8213) should be firstly watched tomorrow for those next trend confirmations which have been updated in above mentioned topic yesterday. Just click above topiclink and go through.

8151-8200 will confirm next Decisive Moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(31-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Last 5 hours sideways trading with Mixed Patterns between 8157-8188 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8151-8200

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Minimum Target of Nifty at 8844.55":-

finally last week started rally will remain continued towards 8844.55 with only very Short Term and sideways corrections.

Rally remained continued with 5 hours intraday sideways trading today which is a part of very Short Term correction also because very Short Term oscillators have turned overbought after 484 points 5 sessions sharp rally and minor correction turned due after such strong rally. 

As firstly Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel today and last 5 hours Mixed Patterns formations therefore today trading will be understood a part of consolidation process and follow up consolidation tomorrow will mean rally continuation above 8200.

It is confirm that until clear and complete selling patterns will not develop on EOD charts till then any deeper correction will not be seen and valid break out of today trading range(8151-8200) should be firstly watched tomorrow for:- 

1- very Short Term correction confirmation below 8151 or 
2- fresh rally confirmation above 8200 

Only it has to be decided that immediate fresh rally above 8200 or after very Short Term correction between 7992-8151 and its confirmation will be from 8151-8200. 

Minimum Target of Nifty at 8844.55

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 30 to Jun 03,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)  
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3 continuation with top formation at 8164.20 on 27-05-2016
5- 28 Sessions trading range(7678-7992) broken out forcefully on 26-05-2016 
6- Long Term Trend turning up confirmation after confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7786)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All trends turning up confirmations after the confirmation of sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7786) in previous week. As 28 Sessions trading range(7678-7992) also broken out forcefully on 26-05-2016 therefore Wave-3 beginning confirmation also in previous week after Wave-2 completion confirmations at 7678.35 on 06-05-2016. Wave-3 is very much on towards its minimum target at 8844.55. Calculations of Wave-3 minimum target is as follows:-

As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5". Impulsive Wave-3 is on and it should gain more points than Wave-1 gained.

Wave-1 gained 7992-6825.80=1166.20 Points

Wave-3 started from 7678.35 and and as per Elliott Wave theory it should gain minimum 1166.20 points because it can not be shorter than Wave-1 therefore its minimum target is at:-

8844.55=7678.35(Wave-3 started)+1166.20(Wave-1 gained)

As strong rally in last 3 sessions and very Short Term oscillators have turned overbought therefore very Short Term correction possibility can not be ruled out any day in next week but finally last week started rally will remain continued towards 8844.55 with only very Short Term and sideways corrections.

Next resistances above previous week highest are as follows:-

1- 8260-8315
2- 8470-8520
3- 8575-8652

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today is not being updated 

Last Resistances of 28 Sessions will decide next Trend

Market Outlook(26-05-2016)

As blasting Global markets today morning therefore 85 points gains in first 30 seconds after huge gap up opening and closing near the higher levels of the day after whole day up moves. Still Nifty will be understood 28 sessions sideways between 7678-7992 and sustaining above 7992 will mean Wave-3 of post Budget 2016-17 rally beginning after Wave-2 correction completion within sideways trading between 7678-7992. 

Next and last resistances within this range are between 7954-7992 and once sustaining above will confirm fresh strong rally above life time high(9119). As mentioned resistances are almost 1 month old and intraday selling patterns were not seen today therefore  rally continuation expectations above 7992 are alive after follow up consolidation near about it.

As last resistances of 28 sessions trading range are between 7954-7992 and its valid break out will decide next trend therefore should be firstly watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations.

Firstly Watch Crucial Levels amid Blasting Global Markets Today 

Following lines were told at 03:31 AM on 24-05-2016 in "Firstly Watch 7678-7730 for next Big Moves":-

As both selling and consolidation were seen in previous 2 sessions therefore firstly valid break out of last supports range(7678-7730) of last 26 sessions should be watched for next big moves beginning confirmations.

Supports between 7678-7730 were updated in previous 2 Outlooks and Nifty could not slip below it as well as closed above it in both previous sessions. 

As all the Global markets have started blasting in last 19 hours therefore in reaction strong gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets also. 27 Sessions sideways market between 7678-7992 and next immediate resistances within this range are as follows:-

1- 7788-7811
2- 7838-7853 

Let Nifty sustain above 7853 then strong rally will be seen otherwise today strong market will be blasting Global cues led only.  As immediate supports and resistances are between 7678-7853 therefore next strong one sided decisive moves will be seen only after sustaining beyond this range because that will be confirmation of Long Term Trend. Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7780) for the last 27 sessions. Sustaining below 7678 will mean broken down confirmation and sustaining above 7853 will be first strong indication of broken out therefore sustaining beyond firstly these crucial levels(7678-7853) should be watched in the coming sessions amid blasting Global cues led  markets today. 

Firstly Watch 7678-7730 for next Big Moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(24-05-2016)

As I have not not completely recovered yet therefore detailed analysis of Nifty is not being updated and only conclusive views are being posted which are as follows:-

Following lines were told on 22-05-2016 in "Firstly Watch sustaining beyond 7678 for much deeper correction confirmations":-

1- 25 Sessions trading between 7678-7992 with lower levels last supports between 7678-7730 and its valid break down will mean deeper correction 
2- down moves below last Friday lowest(7736) are expected in Indian markets

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty slipped below 7736 as well as closed just above mentioned last supports(7678-7730) at 7731.05 after intraday bottom formations within mentioned supports range at 7722.20 on 23-05-2016

Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day yesterday but whole day as such selling patterns were not seen but some consolidation patterns were also seen and last supports of last 26 sessions trading range(7678-7992) are between 7678-7730 therefore complete follow up selling is must in the coming sessions for sustaining below 7678.

Last 3 sessions closing below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7796) and higher levels some selling also therefore deeper correction possibility below 7678 is still alive but after fresh follow up selling because some consolidation patterns were seen yesterday. As both selling and consolidation were seen in previous 2 sessions therefore firstly valid break out of last supports range(7678-7730) of last 26 sessions should be watched for next big moves beginning confirmations.

Firstly Watch sustaining beyond 7678 for much deeper correction confirmations

As not feeling well therefore detailed analysis of Nifty is not being updated and only conclusive views are being posted which are as follows:-

25 Sessions trading between 7678-7992 with lower levels last supports between 7678-7730 and its valid break down will mean deeper correction confirmation towards following Retracement levels:- 

1- 38.2%- 7546(Crucial)
2- 50.0%- 7409(Crucial)
3- 61.8%- 7271(Crucial)

Although all the European markets closed more than 1% up and Dow Jones also closed 65 points up last Friday but down moves below last Friday lowest(7736) are expected in Indian markets because fresh selling patterns formations were seen after P-notes tightening news last Friday therefore firstly sustaining beyond 7678 should be watched in the beginning of next week which may generate much deeper correction also after sustaining below it because that will be 25 sessions trading range broken down confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(20-05-2016)

Although most time positive zone trading since opening today but Indian markets have completely under performed Asian and European markets today. View is cautious because good selling on the back of strong Global cues can not be ruled out in this situation. As SEBI tightened norms on P-notes after the closing of Indian markets yesterday therefore Its reaction is being seen today because this issue will have direct impact on liquidity towards Indian markets. 

Nifty is sideways between 7774-7812 today and valid break out of this today trading range will give first strong indication of P-notes tightening impact on Indian markets therefore should be firstly watched now.

Post-open Outlook(20-05-2016)

Although most time positive trading since opening today but Indian markets have under performed Asian markets since opening today therefore view is cautious because it is the impact of SEBI tightening norms on Participatory notes.  As this issue will have direct impact on liquidity towads Indian markets therefore its implications have to be firstly understood and finally sustaining beyond 7678 will confirm its imact

Finally Up Moves Expectations amid Negative news led Weakness

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(20-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Fed rate hike news led whole days down moves
2- Sideways markets till the opening of European markets
2- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 7766-7876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Fed rate hike news therefore most Asian markets were down and some were more than 0.50% weak,in reaction negative opening of Indian markets. Although Indian markets remained sideways but fresh down moves started after more than 1% weaker opening of most European markets.  

Although positive news of good performance of BJP in 5 Assembly Elections but Indian markets may firstly react following negative developments after closing of Indian markets today:-

1- Sebi tighten screws on participatory notes
2- European markets negative closing from 0.85% to 1.82%
3- Dow Jones traded 194 points down today.

As intraday selling patterns were not seen and all the today down moves were negative news led as well as Whole day today Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore still expected that Nifty will not sustain below next supports(7678) and finally up moves will be seen towards and above 8000 despite such high Bearishness in all Global markets.

Just watch Crucial Levels amid Fed rate hike news and 5 states Election results 

U.S. stocks fell under pressure on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released minutes of its April meeting showing the central bank is ready to lift interest rates in June if the economy show improvement. Although Dow Jones nosedived more than 200 points from higher levels after this news and closed flat but most Asian markets traded more than 0.50% negative today morning. 

As Dow's Futures also traded more than more than 40 points down today therefore falling fear being developed in all the Global markets and Indian markets will also react it through negative zone trading today.

Indian markets will finally react today both Fed rate hike news and 5 states Election results and may remain highly volatile also today but final reaction of both news will be seen tomorrow after understanding and digesting these news. Certainly news led uncertainty today therefore firstly watch valid break out of following levels to understand Nifty next trend after reaction of these news:-

1-7811-7940(first indication)
2-7678-7992(final confirmation) 

Rally Continuation Expectations amid Election results led volatility 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(19-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor consolidation between 7811-7828
2- Minor consolidation between 7842-7859
3- Whole day actual trading between 7811-7882

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As more than 1% down closing of US markets therefore most Asian markets were trading in Red and Hang Seng was also more than 1% down,resultant sentiment was weak today morning and in reaction huge gap down opening of Indian markets with negative closing after whole day negative zone trading today. 

Although today closing near the higher levels of the day but minor consolidation patterns formations therefore some more consolidation is also required for decisive up moves above today highest.

Election results of 5 states will be declared tomorrow and picture will be clear till 11:00 AM tomorrow but volatility may remain high amid uncertainty. As good intraday consolidation yesterday and some consolidation was also seen today therefore today started rally continuation is expected tomorrow also and once BJP clear majority in Assam with more than 10% votes share in other states will mean beginning of fresh Rally above 8000 and that is technically expected also.

Finally Up Moves above Today Highest(7940) in the Coming 1/2 Sessions

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 7889-7913 
2- Consolidation Patterns between 7917-7940 
3- Last hour down moves after sharp fall in most European markets and Dow's Futures
4- Whole day actual trading between 7880-7940

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed near the higher levels of the day but we told following lines yesterday in "GST Bill Passing news led Today Rally require more Confirmations":-

1- last hours up moves after above mentioned Bullish news in the news channels therefore
2- firstly follow up consolidation and after that confirmation through sustaining above next immediate resistance(7900-7932) is must 

Although follow up good consolidation patterns formations were seen today but confirmation through sustaining above next immediate resistance(7900-7932) was must and it was not seen because today closing was below 7900. As last hour today down moves were after sharp fall in most European markets and Dow's Futures therefore view will not be Bearish despite today closing near the lower levels of the day as well as once follow up consolidation tomorrow will mean strong rally towards and above 8000.

As good intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore expected that finally up moves above today highest(7940) will be seen in the coming 1/2 sessions after follow up consolidation within and below today lowest despite more than 0.50% down trading of US and all European markets at this moment.

GST Bill Passing news led Today Rally require more Confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours trading Mixed Patterns formations between 7773-7822
2- Up moves in last hours after FM Arun Jaiteley statement in news channels regarding GST passing in next Monsoon Session.
3- Whole day actual trading between 7773-7873

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told today at 12:44 AM in "Firstly Watch 7678 amid Weak beginning Week":-

possibility of slipping below day's lowest(7785) in the beginning of next week.

Although all the Asian markets were trading in Green zone and some were more than 1% up also but Nifty slipped below 7785 after positive opening and moved up after lowest formation at 7772.15 today. Following news was in the news channels during Indian trading hours today:-

GST Bill will be passed in upcoming monsoon session, says Arun Jaitley

As firstly more than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 7773-7822 and last hours up moves after above mentioned Bullish news in the news channels therefore firstly follow up consolidation and after that confirmation through sustaining above next immediate resistance(7900-7932) is must for decisive up moves to counter last resistance(7954-7992) of Post Budget 2016-17 Rally.

Firstly Watch 7678 amid Weak beginning Week

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 16 to May 20,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-2 beginning after Wave-1 completion at 7992 on 28-04-2016  
3- Wave-A completion at 7678.35 on 06-05-2016
4- Signals of Wave-B completion at 7916.05 on 2-05-2016
5- Signals of Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 7784.20 on 13-05-2016
6- Hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7780) for the last 10 sessions

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

The rally(impulsive Wave-1) which begun from 6825.80 on Budget 2016-17 day(29-02-2016) completed at 7992 on 28-04-2016 and ABC correction of Wave-2 started. Now it seems that its Wave-C is on with recent bottom formation at 7784.20 on 13-05-2016. As Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7780) for the last 10 sessions between 7678-7916 therefore finally sustaining it beyond will confirm Long Term Trend and next more than 5% one sided big move as well.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(13-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Slipping 40 points in first minute
2- More than 2 hours selling between 7825-7844
3- All the Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last 3 hours 
4- Whole day actual trading between 7785-7880

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly slipping 40 points in first minute and after that more than 2 hours selling between 7825-7844 as well as all the Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last 3 hours therefore possibility of slipping below day's lowest(7785) in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All the trends are sideways and finally sustaining beyond 7678-7916 will be following confirmation of next trends:-

1- Slipping below 7678 will confirm Wave-C with fresh down moves beginning towards 7412(161.8% of Wave-A)
2- Sustaining above 7916 will mean correction completion at 7678.35 on 06-05-2016 and high possibility of fresh up moves above the top of post Budget 2016-17 rally(7992)

Although Nifty closed after recovering 30 points points from lower levels but selling patterns formation last Friday therefore expected that firstly down moves towards 7678 will be seen in the beginning of next weak and finally moves beyond 7678 will decide next big moves which should be firstly watched in next week.

Next Trend Confirmation from Levels Despite Today Closing near the Higher Levels of the Day

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(13-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day Volatility
2- Down moves with European markets slipping
3- Up moves with strong recovery in all European markets and 100 Points surge in Dow' Futures
4- Minor selling patterns formations between 7886-7902
5- Whole day actual trading between 7850-7916

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day Volatility in following manner today:- 

1- Firstly up after positive opening
2- More than 3 hours continuous down moves  
3- More than 2 hours continuous up moves 

As whole day volatility and as such no intraday big position formation except minor selling patterns formations between 7886-7902 therefore view is still wait and watch because:-

1- Minor selling between 7886-7902 today which is within and near about those resistances which have been updated previous Outlook yesterday.
2- Only intraday volatile market today and technical positions reverses also during such high intraday volatility.
3- Clear intraday patterns are required to understand FIIs strategy after Mauritius treaty. 

As last 2 hours up moves were the reaction of strong recovery in all European markets and 100 Points surge in Dow' Futures therefore first signal of decisive up moves will be only after sustaining above today highest(7916) because minor selling patterns formations were also seen today.

Next resistances above today highest are between 7900-7932 and only sustaining above 7932 will give first indication of Bullish implication after Mauritius treaty but finally next trend confirmation will be after sustaining beyond 7678-7992 after this event and should be watched despite today closing near the higher levels of the day.  

Firstly Watch Crucial Levels after Mauritius treaty like Big Event

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(12-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mauritius treaty news led high volatility
2- Slipping 106 points in first minute after gap down opening.
3- Recovering 112 points from lower levels in first 3 hours and trading in positive zone also.
4- slipping 78 points in next one hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 7781-7893

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day only volatility on that Mauritius treaty news which may have long term impact on the inflows towards Indian Stock markets therefore no view can be formed only from that 1 day highly volatile intraday charts because technical positions reverses during such high intraday volatility also.

Now we shall try to understand Indian markets through from EOD charts,levels and Trends. Correction of post Budget 2016-17 rally is still on and Long Term Trend will be understood up because last 3 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7779) but Intermediate and Short Term Trends are sideways between 7678-7992 because last 18 sessions trading within this range.

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 7810-7855 
2- 7678-7730

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 7850-7890
2- 7900-7932
3- 7954-7992

Although first strong indication of next big moves will be from sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7779) but let Indian markets prepare after Mauritius treaty for next decisive moves between 7678-7992 then next trend will be updated from intraday charts patterns formations in the same manner as being done for the last more than 5 years because our policy is "No gossiping never guessing and whatsoever market suggest,only that is always updated".

Finally Next supports of Nifty will confirm  Mauritius treaty news actual reaction  

Although closing near the higher levels of the day yesterday but we told following line at 06:10 PM yesterday in "Sideways Market before next Trend":-

good selling on the back of strong Global Cues can not be ruled out today

good selling was told only on the back of intraday charts analysis and result is clear that Nifty traded more than 100 points down in 1st minute today. 

Although such huge down is due to Mauritius treaty news also but there was no such news at 06:10 PM yesterday when above topic was updated.

Next supports of Nifty are between 7678-7730 and should be firstly watched after Mauritius treaty news because today reaction may be sentimental also but finally sustaining beyond this supports range will decide Long Term Trend because Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 7778 and Nifty is hovering it around for the last 7 sessions. Mentioned supports range will confirm actual reaction of Indian markets fundamentals because below 7678 will mean deeper correction and above 7730 will mean fresh rally after digesting Mauritius treaty news.