As I was out of station and just now came back therefore Stock Market Outlook of today is not being updated but Mid-session Outlook may be posted during trading hours today.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Just Watch 7892 for Correction Beginning Confirmation
Post-open Outlook(01-01-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Last hour of 31-12-2015 and First 7 Minutes on 01-01-2016):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Up moves in last hour on 31-12-2015
2- Sharp down in First 7 Minutes on 01-01-2016
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although yesterday closing was near the higher levels of the day but we were not Bullish and told following lines in "4 Indications of Pull back rally correction beginning":-
1- Mixed Patterns between 7892-7915
2- sharp up moves in last half hour.
3- today up moves may be by mutual funds to maintain and increase their NAVs on the last day of the year.
As last hour up moves were not due to intraday consolidation but after Mixed patterns formations between 7892-7915 therefore Nifty lost all yesterday up moves within first 7 minutes today and traded at 7909.80.
Valid break down of 7892 should be firstly watched for correction beginning confirmation.
4 Indications of Pull back rally correction beginning
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(01-01-2016)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Mixed Patterns between 7892-7915
2- Sharp up in last half hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 7892-7955
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although more than 4 hours sideways trading with mixed Patterns formations but sharp up moves in last half hour. As per our view today up moves may be by mutual funds to maintain and increase their NAVs on the last day of the year.
As yesterday down moves were after mixed Patterns formations and today up moves were also after mixed Patterns formations therefore last 2 sessions trading will be understood only highly volatile and not technical positions generated.
Pull Back rally continuation but following indications are suggesting beginning of its correction;-
1- Short Term Oscillators have turned overbought
2- Volatility has increased which is an indication of correction.
3- Mixed Patterns formations in last 2 sessions.
4- Failing to cross next resistance(7953-7968)
Signals of Pull back rally correction beginning
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(31-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Mixed Patterns between 7924-7942
2- Down moves after down moves beginning in European markets
3- Whole day actual trading between 7890-7942
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Consolidation between 7921-7942 yesterday and firstly 4 hours trading within this range with Mixed Patterns between 7924-7942 today and last 2 hours slipping after down moves beginning in all the European markets.
Following resistance ranges were updated on 27-12-2015 in "Firstly Watch Crucial Levels for the Fate on going Pull Back Rally":-
1- 7877-7897
2- 7917-7934
3- 7953-7968
Nifty failed to test 3rd resistance range in last 2 sessions and slipped below yesterday lowest today which is a signal of correction beginning of that Pull back rally which started on 14-12-2015 from 7551.05. As today down moves were on the back of slipping European markets therefore sustaining below today Mixed Patterns lowest(7924) will be correction beginning confirmation.
Pull Back rally continuation expectations
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(30-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation Patterns between 7925-7942
2- Consolidation Patterns between 7903-7911
3- Consolidation Patterns between 7921-7938
4- Whole day actual trading between 7903-7942
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As selling between 6893-7916 yesterday therefore very short term correction was expected and it was seen through slipping from intraday higher levels. Fresh consolidation was seen within yesterday selling range(6893-7916) between 7903-7911 today and then recovery from lower levels as well as closing near the higher levels of the day today.
As intraday consolidation patterns formation within yesterday selling range today therefore on going Pull Back rally continuation is expected towards Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 8071).
Very Short Term Correction Possibility
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook(29-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Dec-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 6893-7916
2- Volatility in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 7863-7937
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although 0.82% positive closing but more than 4 hours selling patterns formations between 6893-7916 today therefore emergence of very short term correction possibility near about today lowest(7863) despite volatility in last hour.
Firstly Watch Crucial Levels for the Fate on going Pull Back Rally
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Dec 28,2015 to Jan 01,2016)
Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7551.05 on 14-12-2015(Pull back rally beginning)
2- Recent top formation at 7888.75 on 24-12-2015
3- Last 6 sessions sideways market between 7734-7888 with force less up moves
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Long Term correction is on and more than 300 points Pull back rally continuation after getting supports at 7551.05 on 14-12-2015. As no confirmation of its completion on EOD charts therefore its continuation will be expected but last 6 sessions sideways market between 7734-7888 with force less up moves therefore emergence of on going Pull back rally completion indication.
Last 6 sessions Intra Day Chart Analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 17 to Dec 24,2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 7738-7772 on 17-12-2015
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hours on 17-12-2015
3- Selling between 7793-7836 on 18-12-2015
4- Selling between 7800-7840 on 21-12-2015
5- More than 4 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 22-12-2015
6- Almost whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 23-12-2015
7- Most time sideways trading within 18 points between 7851-7869 with lower levels supports on 24-12-2015
8- 6 Sessions trading between 7734-7888
Conclusions from 6 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Last 6 Sessions trading between 7734-7888 with higher levels selling also within this range therefore valid break down of this range will be confirmation of on going Pull Back Rally termination. As lower levels supports were also seen within this range therefore finally valid break out of this range should be watched for the confirmation of on going Pull Back rally continuation/completion.
Last 2 sessions Intra Day Chart Analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 23 & Dec 24,2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Almost whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 23-12-2015
2- Most time sideways trading within 18 points between 7851-7869 with lower levels supports on 24-12-2015
3- Last 2 sessions most time trading within 30 points between 7841-7871
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Last 2 sessions most time trading within 30 points between 7841-7871 and valid break out of this range will be first strong indication of on going Pull Back rally continuation/completion and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Detailed analysis of EOD Charts with patterns formations have already been updated in following previous weekly analysis topics:-
1- On 29-11-2015: "Bullish Flag Formation in last 9 months Correction suggesting Strong Rally"
2- On 06-12-2015: "7715 Will decide the Life of on going Correction"
Importance of 7715 has already been updated with Neckline(7722) of 56 sessions Head and Shoulders pattern and both the levels were broken down but last 7 sessions closing above it therefore validity of this pattern in question now.
As whole 9 months correction from 9119.20 to 7539.50 in Falling channel with Bullish Flag formations and this pattern formation will remain valid up to near about 7119 therefore until Nifty will not slip below the Falling trend line of Flag till then expectations of fresh Rally above life time high(9119.20) will remain alive.
Wave-C is on with recent bottom at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and now Pull back rally continuation after its Sub Wave-5 completion at 7551.05 on 14-12-2015. Although Pull back rally beginning after higher bottom formation at 7551.05 on 14-12-2015 but no confirmation of on going Long term correction completion yet therefore firstly sustaining above following resistances should be watched in next week for first strong indication of on going correction completion:-
1- 7877-7897
2- 7917-7934
3- 7953-7968
As Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8074 therefore finally sustaining above it will be confirmation of on going correction completion and let it happen otherwise on going Pull Back Rally will be understood for its continuation towards above mentioned resistances.
Crucial Levels for next Trend Confirmations
Last 6 sessions trading between 7734-7888 with higher levels selling and lower levels supports therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about this range in next week and will prepare for next decisive moves beyond it and finally valid break out of this range will decide the fate of on going Pull Back rally. As last 2 sessions most time trading within 30 points between 7841-7871 and valid break out of this range will be next decisive moves first strong indication therefore should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.
Only Indian markets participation in Bullish Global markets
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(24-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Sharp up after opening
2- Almost whole day up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7827-7872
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As Dow Jones closed 165 points up yesterday and in reaction all the Asian markets was trading in Green therefore resultant strong opening of Indian markets and whole day sideways trading within 45 points betwen 7827-7872. Although today closing with 1.03% gains but on the back of strong Global cues therfore view will not be Bullish because almost whole day today up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel and intraday selling patterns were seen in last 3 sessions also.
Global markets are strong and now Dow Jones is trading more than 100 points up as well as almost all the European markets are also more than 2% up therefore only Indian markets participation in Bullish Global markets will be understood in the form of Pull Back Rally towards following next resistance:-
1- 7877-7897
2- 7917-7934
3- 7953-7968
Correction Continuation Expectations
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(23-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 4 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Sharp down after intraday selling patterns formations
3- Whole day actual trading between 7777-7846
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in "Short Term correction in the coming 2/3 sessions":-
1- selling patterns formations will be understood between 7793-7840 in last 2 sessions
2- expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest
3- finally down moves will be seen below today lowest(7733.45) in the coming 2/3 sessions after follow up selling
Follow up selling was firstly seen today through more than 4 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel. As this Bearish pattern formation was between last 2 sessions selling range(7793-7840) therefore sharp down moves below 7793 and closing also below this range at 7786.10 today.
Pull Back started on 14-12-2015 from 7551.05 and strong signals of its completion after last 3 sessions selling between 7793-7840. As such good selling therefore expected that more down moves will be seen towards the bottom of on going Pull Bach rally and possibility of slipping below the bottom(7551) of on going pull back rally also can not be ruled out because no confirmation of that big correction completion which started on 04-03-2015 from 9119.20.
As Dow Jones is now trading more than 120 points up and if it close such strong today and Asian markets also react such Bullishness tomorrow then some intraday volatility may be seen within today trading range(7777-7846) tomorrow but finally correction continuation is expected in the next 1/2 sessions.
Short Term correction in the coming 2/3 sessions
Intra Day Charts Analysis & Market Outlook
(22-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 21 & Dec 22,2015) |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 7793-7836 on 18-12-2015
2- Selling between 7800-7840 on 21-12-2015
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although closing near the higher levels of the day today but almost 5 hours selling patterns formations were also seen today. As more than 5 hours selling was seen almost in the same range last Friday also therefore selling patterns formations will be understood between 7793-7840 in last 2 sessions and Short Term correction will be considered.
As Dow Jones is now trading 140 points up and all the European markets are also trading with good gains therefore if Asian markets remains strong tomorrow then gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets also but expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest and finally down moves will be seen below today lowest(7733.45) in the coming 2/3 sessions after follow up selling.
Rally beginning today after more than 1.5% strong opening of all European markets
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(18-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17--Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- First 2 Hours down moves despite strong closing of US markets and most Asian markets strong trading.
2- Consolidation between 7738-7772(Immediate Supports)
3- Rally beginning after more than 1.5% strong opening of all European markets
4- Whole day actual trading between 7738-7852
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As selling between 7756-7776 yesterday therefore firstly 2 hours slipping and also negative zone trading in first 4 hours despite following most Bullish sentiments:-
1- Dow Jones closed 223 points up after FOMC dovish statement.
2- All Asian markets trading with very good gains.
As firstly consolidation was required after yesterday selling between 7756-7776 therefore consolidation was seen within and below yesterday selling range between 7738-7772 today but strong rally begun after more than 1.5% positive opening of all European markets.
As Global markets rally triggered yesterday after FOMC dovish statement therefore Indian markets participation in the form of Pull Back Rally towards following next resistance:-
1- 7877-7897
2- 7917-7934
3- 7953-7968
Short Term correction expectations
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(17-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 7756-7776
2- Whole day actual trading between 7716-7776
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day positive zone trading after gap up opening today but selling at higher levels therefore Short Term correction of last 3 sessions rally is expected tomorrow despite whatsoever announcements from FOMC today Midnight and finally sustaining beyond 7722 will decide the fate of on going Pull back rally.
Just Watch Crucial Levels for Post FOMC Big Moves
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(16-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Mixed Patterns between 7626-7646
2- Up moves beginning after strong opening of European markets
3- Last 2 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 7626-7705
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although closing near the higher levels of the day but due to following reasons:-
1- After strong opening of all European market.
2- Sudden jump of Dow's Futures at 01:15 PM
As today recovery from lower levels was not on the back of consolidation but after more than 2 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations therefore view will not be Bullish despite today closing near the higher levels of the day because last 2 hours up moves were the reaction of above mentioned Bullish Global Markets cues.
Last 5 sessions most time trading between 7620-7691 and today closing above it but on the back of strong Global cues and not due to consolidation therefore trading range break out confirmation is firstly required through sustaining above 7691.
57 sessions Head and Shoulders pattern's Neckline(7722) breaking down confirmation through last 6 sessions closing below its Neckline therefore view will not be Bullish until Nifty will not sustain above 7722 and possibility of deeper correction below on going correction lowest(7539.50) will remain alive.
Correction is on and first signal of fresh Pull Back Rally will be after sustaining above following next 2 crucial levels:-
1- Last 5 sessions most time trading range highest(7691)
2- 57 sessions Head and Shoulders pattern's Neckline(7722)
As some big moves may be seen on 17-12-2015 after FOMC announcements therefore Indian markets will prepare for those moves tomorrow and that will be understood through intraday charts patterns formation tomorrow which will be updated accordingly. As far as next trend deciding crucial levels are concerned that will be decided through sustaining beyond 7691/7722 and should be firstly watched for post FOMC big up moves and 7620/7540 for big down moves.
Correction Continuation Expectations with new Low of on going Correction below 7539.50
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(15-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 09 to Dec 14,2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Last 4 Sessions with Mixed Patterns formations trading between 7620-7691
2- Supports between 7572-7621 in last 2 sessions
2- Last 4 Sessions most time trading between 7620-7691
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Dec-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Support between 7572-7597
2- 93 Points Bounce in first Hour
3- More than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 7620-7663
4- Volatility in last hours
5- Whole day actual trading between 7552-7663
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
What so ever happened in Indian markets today,all that were updated well before its happening through intraday charts analysis. Live proofs of such accurate projections are as follows:-
Following lines were told yesterday in "Correction Continuation after 1/2 Sessions Intraday Volatility":-
1- a bounce back is firstly expected from lower levels
2- possibility of recovery from lower levels can not be ruled out
3- 1/2 sessions intraday volatility.
Following lines were told today at 11:23 AM in "Firstly Watch Next Crucial levels after 93 Points Bounce in first Hour Today ":-
Correction is on and some selling was seen between 7655-7691 in last 3 sessions therefore follow up moves with sustaining beyond these crucial levels should be firstly watched for next decisive moves.
As was told in both previous Outlooks 100% same happened in following manner today:-
1- 93 Points Bounce from lower levels was seen in first Hour today.
2- Volatility was seen in last hours today.
3- As some selling between 7655-7691 in last 3 sessions therefore Nifty could not move above it and closed below these levels at 7650.05 after facing resistance within this range.
Certainly some supports at lower levels today and Indian markets completely out performed all Global markets. Lower levels good supports between 7572-7621 in last 2 sessions therefore first signal of consolidation and follow up selling is also firstly required for decisive down moves below 7572. As last 4 sessions trading between 7620-7691 with Mixed Patterns formations therefore more consolidation is also required for Pull back rally above 7691.
Correction is still on and no confirmation of its completion yet and only some consolidation were supports were seen at lower levels in last 4 sessions. Expected that Nifty will trade between last 4 sessions actual trading range(7572-7691) and prepare for next decisive moves after FOMC announcements on 17-12-2015. Although rates hike is confirm by FOMC but this news is well discounted in all the Global markets and further down moves will not be considered only on the back of this news.
As technically most Bearish development is 57 sessions Head and Shoulders pattern's Neckline(7722) breaking down confirmation which is giving some more down moves indications therefore correction continuation and new low of on going correction is still expected below 7539.50 after follow up selling within last 4 sessions actual trading range(7572-7691).
Firstly Watch Next Crucial levels after 93 Points Bounce in first Hour Today
Post-open Outlook(14-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (First hour of 14-Dec-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- As some intraday supports at lower levels after Bullish Falling Channel formation last Friday therefore a bounce back is firstly expected from lower levels
2- some supports and consolidation patterns were seen last Friday therefore possibility of recovery from lower levels can not be ruled out
As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and strong 93 points bounce back from lower levels after gap down opening was seen in first hour today.
Correction is on and some selling was seen between 7655-7691 in last 3 sessions therefore follow up moves with sustaining beyond these crucial levels should be firstly watched for next decisive moves.
Correction Continuation after 1/2 Sessions Intraday Volatility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Dec 14 to Dec 18,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C recent bottom at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
10- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 7575.30 on 11-12-2015
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Dec-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Mixed Patterns between 7661-7690
2- Down moves after uproar in Parliament but in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Support between 7576-7621
4- Whole day actual trading between 7576-7690
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Detailed analysis of EOD Charts with patterns formations have already been updated in following previous weekly analysis topics:-
1- On 29-11-2015: "Bullish Flag Formation in last 9 months Correction suggesting Strong Rally"
2- On 06-12-2015: "7715 Will decide the Life of on going Correction"
Importance of 7715 was updated in previous weekly analysis topic with Neckline(7722) of 56 sessions Head and Shoulders pattern and both the levels were broken down in previous week as well as last 4 sessions closing below it therefore levels therefore emergence of some more down moves possibilities.
As whole 9 months correction from 9119.20 to 7539.50 in Falling channel with Bullish Flag formations and this pattern formation will remain valid up to near about 7119 therefore until Nifty will not slip below the Falling trend line of Flag till then expectations of fresh Rally above life time high(9119.20) will remain alive.
Wave-C is on with recent bottom at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and now its Sub Wave-5 continuation with recent bottom formation at 7575.30 on 11-12-2015. As no confirmation of on going correction completion yet therefore more down moves below Wave-C lowest(7539.50) is very much possible.
As some intraday supports at lower levels after Bullish Falling Channel formation last Friday therefore a bounce back is firstly expected from lower levels. All the European and US markets closed in deep Red last Friday,if in reaction such weakness reflects in Asian markets also tomorrow then Gap down markets will be seen in Indian markets. As Short Term indicators are oversold and some supports and consolidation patterns were seen last Friday therefore possibility of recovery from lower levels can not be ruled out but Pull back rally will be considered only after sustaining above 7691/7722.
Correction is on and finally its continuation is expected after some 1/2 sessions intraday volatility.
Mid-session Outlook(11-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Last hours trading between 7655-7691 yesterday(on 11-12-2015)
2- Actual trading between 7660-7690 till 10:50 AM today(on 10-12-2015)
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in "Pull Back rally possibility amid sideways market before FOMC"
Volatility and up moves were also seen in last hours according to European markets and Dow's futures moves therefore some selling also can not be ruled out.
Although Nifty traded between 7655-7691 and also closed near the higher levels of the day yesterday but on the back of European markets and Dow's futures moves. As selling possibility was seen within this last hours range and also updated yesterday therefore first 2 hours today trading has been seen within this range between 7660-7703 for follow up moves and preparation for next decisive moves because some selling is being seen today also.
Last 4 hours trading within 7655-7691 and firstly valid break out of this range should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations.
Pull Back rally possibility amid sideways market before FOMC
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(11-12-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Dec-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 4 hours consolidation between 7610-7639(Immediate Supports)
2- Sharp up
3- Volatility and up moves in last hours with European markets and Dow's futures moves.
4- Whole day actual trading between 7610-7691
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Sharp up moves after 4 hours good consolidation but Volatility and up moves were also seen in last hours according to European markets and Dow's futures moves therefore some selling also can not be ruled out. As consolidation in last hour yesterday and follow up consolidation again today therefore 7608-7639 will be immediate support of Nifty and complete selling is required for decisive down moves below today lowest.
Certainly emergence of Pull Back rally possibility towards next resistance range(7796-7822) but finally sustaining beyond Neckline(7722) of 57 sessions Head and Shoulders pattern should be watched in the coming sessions for correction continuation/completion confirmation.
Immediate supports and resistances of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Supports between 7610-7639
2- Resistance between 7796-7822
Expected that Nifty will remain sideways between 7610-7822 in the coming sessions and prepare for next decide moves after FOMC on 16 Dec 2015 and finally valid break out of this range will decide next immediate trend but firstly Pull Back rally is expected.
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