Next Big Trend Decider is 8196-8384

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(28-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 52 Points down in first minute after gap down opening.
2- Whole day down moves
3- Whole day actual trading between 8352-8475

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Punjab Terrorist attack and all the Asian markets in deep Red trading therefore firstly 52 points slipping in first minute after gap down opening and whole day continuous down moves and closing near the lower levels of the day today.

As 7 Sessions most time trading range broken down forcefully on 24-07-2015 therefore following lines were told at 12:35 AM on 25-07-2015 in "Firstly Watch 8196-8384 for correction continuation / completion":- 

1- strong signals of correction continuation in the beginning of next week
2- breaking down confirmation is also required through sustaining below 8560 and once this confirmation will mean deeper correction
3- strong signals of correction continuation which may be deeper also.
4- If follow up consolidation develops within or near about 8196-8384 then last Thursday started correction completion will be considered after sustaining above 8384
5- sustaining beyond 8196-8384 should be firstly watched in the coming week for correction continuation/completion.

Sustaining beyond 8196-8384 was told for correction continuation/completion confirmations and Nifty closed within this range today at 8361. As following reasons therefore valid break out of 8196-8384 will decide next big Trend therefore should be firstly watched for confirmations:-

1- Below 8196 will mean more down moves because Long Term Trend turning down confirmations after breaking down confirmation of its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8257).
2- Above 8384 will mean fresh rally after 714 Points previous rally correction completion near about crucial retracement levels(38.2%,50.0% and 61.8%) which are lying between 8212-8381.

Firstly Watch 8196-8384 for correction continuation / completion 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 27 to Jul 31,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally beginning after corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 
2- Rally completion at 8654.75 on 23-07-2015 and correction beginning.
3- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8513.50 on 24-07-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Rally begun after corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 which completed at 8654.75 on 23-07-2015 and now this rally correction continuation.

Retracement levels of on going rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally beginning at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 
2- Rally completion at 8654.75 on 23-07-2015
3- Correction continuation

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Rally between 7940-8654 will correct accordingly to following retracement levels;-

1- 13.0%-8561
2- 23.6%-8485
3- 27.0%-8461
4- 38.2%-8381(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-8297(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-8212(Crucial)
7- 70.0%-8149
8- 76.4%-8108
8- 78.6%-8092 
10-88.6%-8021 

7 Sessions most time trading range broken down

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 16 to Jul 24,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 7 Sessions intraday charts

1- 7 Sessions most time trading between 8560-8642 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling.
2- 7 Sessions most time trading range broken down forcefully on 24-07-2015 

Conclusions from 7 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although some buying was also seen at lower levels after higher levels good selling in last 7 sessions between 8560-8642 but Nifty could not sustain within this range and broken down forcefully on 24-07-2015 therefore strong signals of correction continuation in the beginning of next week. As all the Asian markets were in Red and some were more than 1% down and today break down was depressed sentiment led also therefore breaking down confirmation is also required through sustaining below 8560 and once this confirmation will mean deeper correction.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

714 Points previous rally between 7940.30 and 8654.75 and its correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8513.50 on 24-07-2015. As last 7 Sessions most time trading range broken down forcefully on 24-07-2015 therefore strong signals of correction continuation which may be deeper also.

Supports of previous rally between 7940-8654 are as follows:-

1- 8500-8510
2- 8425-8448
3- 8310-8384
4- 8196-8250
5- 8048-8077
6- 8000-8015
7- 7940-7980

Retracement levels of previous rally between(7940-8654) has been updated above and let consolidation develop near about above supports and retracement levels then fresh rally after on going correction completion will be considered.

As crucial retracement levels(38.2%,50.0% and 61.8%) are lying between 8212-8381 and these levels are also lying within above mentioned 3rd and 4th supports ranges(8196-8384) therefore strong possibility of on going correction completion within this supports range.

If follow up consolidation develops within or near about 8196-8384 then last Thursday started correction completion will be considered after sustaining above 8384 and firstly sustaining beyond 8196-8384 should be firstly watched in the coming week for correction continuation/completion.

Firstly Watch 8557-8654 for the Life,Length of Depth of today Started Correction

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(24-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8630-8654(Immediate Resistances)
2- Minor selling after intraday recovery
3- Consolidation between 8591-8610(Immediate Supports)
4- Consolidation between 8574-8600(Immediate Supports)
5- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel 
6- Whole day actual trading between 8574-8654

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As soon selling developed then following lines were told today at 11:39 AM in "Mid-session Outlook(23-07-2015)":-

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "Finally rally above today highest after follow up consolidation":-

Expected that finally rally above today highest(8643.90) will be seen after follow up consolidation between and near about 8623-8643

Nifty traded most time in first 2 hours within above mentioned range with selling patterns formations and follow up consolidation was not seen therefore some down moves within yesterday trading range(8499-8643) will be firstly seen.

As first 2 hours good selling between 8630-8654 therefore Nifty could not move above this range in next 2 up moves attempts and slipped after minor selling but lower levels consolidation was also seen therefore today trading between 8574-8654 will be understood with mixed patterns formations and fresh technical positions formations are firstly for decisive moves beyond today trading range.

Although negative zone today closing near the lower levels of the day but Whole day today down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore view will not be Bearish until follow up selling will not develop in the coming sessions.

Today down moves were the correction of strong rally of 22-07-2015 and immediate retracement levels of today started correction are shown in following intraday chart of last 2 sessions:-

Retracement levels of last 2 sessions moves:-

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As 61.8% Retracement level is at 8557 therefore valid break out of 8557-8654 should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for the life,length of depth of today started correction.

Mid-session Outlook(23-07-2015)

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "Finally rally above today highest after follow up consolidation":-

Expected that finally rally above today highest(8643.90) will be seen after follow up consolidation between and near about 8623-8643

Nifty traded most time in first 2 hours within above mentioned range with selling patterns formations and follow up consolidation was not seen therefore some down moves within yesterday trading range(8499-8643) will be firstly seen.

Finally rally above today highest after follow up consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(23-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 8501-8523(Immediate Supports)
2- Consolidations through Up moves with intraday corrections
3- Mixed Patterns between 8623-8643 
4- Whole day actual trading between 8499-8643

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

When All the Asian markets were trading sufficiently down and Dow's Futures was trading more than 70 points down then gap down opening of Indian markets but firstly lower levels supports and whole day continuous up moves despite weaker opening of European markets and all around Global markets weakness. Certainly Indian markets completely out performed Global cues and it is a strong signal of strength.

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "Firstly Watch Next Supports and Crucial Retracement Levels for Correction Completion":-

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8500-8510
2- 8425-8448
3- 8320-8384

As next crucial supports are above 8320 and resistances are below 8634 therefore Nifty will be understood sideways between 8320-8634 and Nifty will prepare for next trend between this range in the coming 2/3 sessions.

Nifty got supports just below above mentioned first support range(8500-8510) at 8498.65 therefore supports between 8500-8523 have become much stronger today because today supports were amid most depressed Global markets sentiments.

Sideways Nifty was told between 8320-8634 and Nifty closed just below 8634 at 8633.50 today with lower levels supports and consolidations therefore once valid break out of 8634 will mean fresh rally after last 4 sessions sideways correction completion.

As firstly more than 1% recovery from lower levels and intraday indicators have turned over bought therefore minor profit booking can not be ruled out in last hour mixed Patterns formations between 8623-8643 and some consolidation is firstly required near about this range for next decisive rally above today highest(8643.90).

As same following view for coming sessions market therefore same lines are being repeated which were updated as final conclusions on 18-07-2015 in "Finally Rally towards and above 8882/9119.20 after 6  Bullish confirmation":-

Although sentiment may remain disturbed in next week but technically Indian markets are well poised for rally continuation after minor correction and volatility despite whatsoever happen in Parliament and performance remains in Quarterly results. 

As above mentioned 6  Bullish confirmation therefore as per our view worst is over in Indian Stock Markets and finally strong rally will be seen towards and above 8882/9119.20 in the coming weeks/months.

Expected that finally rally above today highest(8643.90) will be seen after follow up consolidation between and near about 8623-8643 

Firstly Watch Next Supports and Crucial Retracement Levels for Correction Completion.

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(22-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8590-8634(Immediate Resistances)
2- Down moves in last hour.
3- Whole day actual trading between 8518-8634

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 20-07-2015 in "Firstly Watch 8559-8642 amid expected disrupted Monsoon Session of Parliament":-

Nifty will trade and prepare for next decisive moves between and near about 8559-8642 in the coming sessions therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched 

Nifty firstly traded more than 5 hours between and near about 8559-8634 with intraday selling patterns between 8590-8634 and after that slipped below 8559 as well as closed below it.

As more than 5 hours selling between 8590-8634 and selling was seen within this range on 17-07-2015 also therefore this range has become immediate strong resistance and until Nifty will not sustain above 8634 after follow up consolidation till then next up moves will not be considered.

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8500-8510
2- 8425-8448
3- 8320-8384

As next crucial supports are above 8320 and resistances are below 8634 therefore Nifty will be understood sideways between 8320-8634 and Nifty will prepare for next trend between this range in the coming 2/3 sessions.

Previous Short term rally started on 10-07-2015 from 8315 and terminated on 21-07-2015 at 8647. Crucial retracement levels of this rally are as follows:-

1- 38.2%-8520
2- 50.0%-8481
3- 61.8%-8441

If Nifty start consolidation and get supports at or near about above mentioned supports and  retracement levels then fresh rally will be considered after today started correction completion and 61.8% retracement level(8441) is most crucial because it is lying between above mentioned 2nd supports range.

Short Term Correction is on,above mentioned next supports and crucial retracement levels should be firstly watched now for correction completion.

Firstly Watch 8559-8642 amid expected disrupted Monsoon Session of Parliament

Intra Day Charts Analysis & Market Outlook

(21-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 17 & Jul 20,2015)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 17-07-2015
2- Support between 8594-8604 on 17-07-2015(Immediate Supports)
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 17-07-2015
4- Selling between 8520-8635 on 17-07-2015(Immediate Resistances)
5- Consolidation between 8559-8578 on 20-07-2015(Immediate Supports)
6- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8559-8642 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Detailed analysis of EOD charts with following conclusions were updated on 18-07-2015 in "Finally Rally towards and above 8882/9119.20 after 6  Bullish confirmation":-

1- signals of some down moves and possibility of day's lowest can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week 
2- some consolidations and lower levels supports were also seen therefore sustaining below days's lowest after follow up selling is must for next decisive down moves.  
3- Short Term Indicators have turned overbought as well as some selling patterns were also seen on last Friday intraday charts therefore very Short Term correction possibility can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week. 
4- Parliament session will begin from next Monday and that may be stormy also, negative news flow from there may remain continued as well as many Quarterly results will also be declared in next week therefore volatility may remain high in next week.

As Selling between 8520-8635 with Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel last Friday therefore down moves below last Friday lowest(8593.15) was seen immediately after opening today but lower levels consolidation also developed between 8559-8578 today therefore Nifty will be understood sideways between within last 2 sessions trading range(8559-8642). 

Nifty will trade and prepare for next decisive moves between and near about 8559-8642 in the coming sessions therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched under the dark shadow of expected disrupted Monsoon Sessions of Parliament beginning from 21-07-2015 and high volatility also can not be ruled out.  

Post-open Outlook(20-07-2015)

Following lines were told on 18-07-20`5 in "Finally Rally towards and above 8882/9119.20 after 6  Bullish confirmation":-

signals of some down moves and possibility of day's lowest can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week 

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty slipped below last Friday lowest(8593.15) within first 10 minutes and today lowest at this moment is at 8570.85.

Following lines were also told in above mentioned topic,just keep in mind:-

1- some consolidations and lower levels supports were also seen therefore sustaining below days's lowest after follow up selling is must for next decisive down moves.  
2- Short Term Indicators have turned overbought as well as some selling patterns were also seen on last Friday intraday charts therefore very Short Term correction possibility can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week. 
3- Parliament session will begin from next Monday and that may be stormy also, negative news flow from there may remain continued as well as many Quarterly results will also be declared in next week therefore volatility may remain high in next week.

Finally Rally towards and above 8882/9119.20 after 6  Bullish confirmation 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 20 to Jul 24,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Rally with recent top formation at 8642.95 on 17-07-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that its 5 waves correction started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and now Rally continuation after 5 waves correction completion with recent top formation at 8,642.95 on 17-07-2015.

Rally after correction completion

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Rally beginning after Wave-5 correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 
7- Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8642.95 on 17-07-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8642.95 on 17-07-2015 and no signal of correction beginning on EOD charts except Doji Candle formation on 17-07-2015. 

Correction completion near the lowest of Wave-4

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- 5th Wave of rally completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
3- Correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and fresh Rally beginning
4- Correction completion near Wave 4 low

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

As per following Elliott Wave theory Guideline;-

"After a 5-wave impulse advance, corrections usually end in the area of prior Wave-4 lowest"

As Nifty completed correction(7940.30) near the lowest of Wave-4(7961.35) therefore high possibility of that 4000 points rally correction completion which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 as well as fresh Wave like previous 4000 points beginning from 7940.30 on 12-06-2015  

Inverse Head and Shoulders Neckline Broken out confirmation

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Inverse Head and Shoulders Bullish Pattern formations
2- Neckline broken out at 8390 on 13-07-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern formations and Neckline at 8390 was broken out on 13-07-2015. As last 5 sessions closing above Neckline therefore its broken out confirmation which means as per following calculation immediate target of Nifty is at 8882:-

Head was formed at 7940
Neckline just above head is at 8432
8432-7940= 492 points between Head and Neckline 
Neckline was broken out at 8390  
Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern broken out target will be at 8390+492=8882

Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation 

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Rally beginning
3- Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation and its broken out confirmation 
4- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out confirmation.  
5- Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations after last 3 sessions closing above 8505
6- Long Term Trend turning up confirmations after last 21 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8239).

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Intermediate Term Trend was down for the last 59 sessions and its turning up confirmations after last 3 sessions closing above 8505 in previous week as well as Long Term Trend was already up and now last 21 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8239) therefore now all trends turning up confirmations.

As whole correction was in Bullish Flag Pattern formation and its broken out confirmations through last 20 sessions closing above upwards falling line therefore strong signals of fresh rally after that correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 which started from at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(20-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Support between 8594-8604(Immediate Supports)
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Selling between 8520-8635(Immediate Resistances)
5- Whole day actual trading between 8594-8642

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Doji candle formations with intraday selling patterns formations therefore signals of some down moves and possibility of day's lowest can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but some consolidations and lower levels supports were also seen therefore sustaining below days's lowest after follow up selling is must for next decisive down moves.  

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Following Bullish confirmations on EOD Charts in previous week:-

1- Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations after last 3 sessions closing above 8505
2- Long Term Trend turning up confirmations after last 21 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8239).
3- Bullish Flag Pattern broken out confirmation through last 20 sessions closing above it. 
4- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out confirmation through last 20 sessions closing above it. 
5- Inverse Head and Shoulders broken out confirmation through last 5 sessions closing above its Necckline.
6- 5 waves correction completion near confirmation the lowest of Wave-4

As above 6 Bullish developments on EOD Charts therefore technically that now Bullish market continuation will also be considered in which:- 

1- All trends have turned up 
2- That 4000 points rally correction has been completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015.

As strong signals of previous 4000 points rally completion therefore fresh Wave like previous 4000 points Waves emergence possibility will also be considered now.

As strong rally in previous weeks and Short Term Indicators have turned overbought as well as some selling patterns were also seen on last Friday intraday charts therefore very Short Term correction possibility can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week. Parliament session will begin from next Monday and that may be stormy also, negative news flow from there may remain continued as well as many Quarterly results will also be declared in next week therefore volatility may remain high in next week.

Although sentiment may remain disturbed in next week but technically Indian markets are well poised for rally continuation after minor correction and volatility despite whatsoever happen in Parliament and performance remains in Quarterly results. 

As above mentioned 6  Bullish confirmation therefore as per our view worst is over in Indian Stock Markets and finally strong rally will be seen towards and above 8882/9119.20 in the coming weeks/months.

Rally continuation after Bullish patterns broken out and all Trends turning up Confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jul-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8563-8574
2- Up moves with intraday consolidations
3- Whole day actual trading between 9543-8616

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As following positive news flow today therefore whole day rally continuation after positive opening today:-.

1- Greece parliament to vote on bailout amid brewing Syriza revolt
2- Cabinet Approves Simplification of Foreign Investment Norms

As Positive news from Greece and all the Asian markets except Taiwan closed in Green as well as Dow Futures traded whole day more than 40 points up therefore sentiment boosted today morning and resultant positive zone trading was seen after Green opening of Indian markets today. Most European markets also traded more than 1% up after positive opening therefore sentiment remained strong and whole day rally continuation today. 

Today closing has given following patterns break out and trends all trends turning up confirmations:-

1- Inverse Head and Shoulders broken out on confirmation.
2- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out confirmation. 
3- The correction which started from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 was in Bullish Flag Pattern which has been broken out and sustaining above confirmation. 
4- Long Term Trend turning up confirmation after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8236).
5- Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmation after sustaining above 8505.

As Bullish patterns broken out and all trends turning up confirmations today therefore rally continuation will be seen in the coming sessions but very Short Term indicators are overbought and some intraday correction with high volatility may be seen any day which may provide lower levels buying opportunity also after follow up consolidations.

Crucial levels and Bullish patterns break out confirmation after positive news flow today

Mid-session Outlook(16-07-2015)  

As Greek parliament approved bail out deal therefore all Asian markets except Taiwan traded and closed in Green and most European markets are trading more than 1% up after positive opening. Resultant firstly Indian markets traded in Green. Fresh intraday up moves begun after FM announcement of Simplification of Foreign Investment Norms in Press conference after 1:00 PM today 

Crucial levels and Bullish patterns(which have been updated in previous Outlooks) break out confirmation after following positive news flow today and rally continuation is expected.

1- Greece parliament to vote on bailout amid brewing Syriza revolt
2- Cabinet Approves Simplification of Foreign Investment Norms

(Just go through above topic links and go through full news)

Post-open Outlook(16-07-2015)

As following positive news from Greece and All the Asian markets are in Green as well as Dow Futures is also more than 50 points up therefore sentiment boosted today morning resultant positive opening of Indian markets 

Greek crisis: MPs approve bailout measures, after clashes in Athens 

As intraday selling patterns formations yesterday therefore some down moves were expected but Indian markets are participating in Global markets rally. Last resistances of 7 sessions are between 8540-8550 and sustaining above it should be firstly watched because today up moves are Positive news led. Once sustaining above 8550 will mean fresh strong rally beginning.

Some Down Moves Expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jul-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Sharp up in first 45 minutes
2- Most time trading between 8505-8531
3- Most time Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8465-8531

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time positive zone trading with closing near the higher levels of the day but most time up moves were seen in Bearish Rising Channel within almost 6 hours sideways market between 8505-8531 therefore expected that some down moves will be seen and possibility of slipping below today lowest(8465) can not be ruled out.  

4 Bullish Patterns on EOD Charts suggesting rally after follow up consolidations 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(15-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Jul-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8425-8448
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Higher levels selling
4- Whole day actual trading between 8425-8480

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day sideways trading within 55 points with both consolidation and selling patterns formations therefore more technical positions formations are firstly required for next decisive moves beyond today trading range.

Expected that Nifty will trade within and near about today trading range(8425-8480) and sustaining it beyond will decide next trend therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

As following 4 Bullish Patterns on EOD Charts in last 23 sessions after lowest formations at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 therefore expected that finally follow up consolidation will develop and fresh rally will be seen above last 23 sessions highest at 8561.35.

1- Inverse Head and Shoulders broken out on 14-07-2015.
2- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out and last 17 sessions closing above it 
3- Long Term Trend turning up confirmation after last 18 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8229).
4- The correction which started from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 was in Bullish Flag Pattern which has been broken out and last 17 sessions sustaining above it. 

Nifty Target at 8882 after Inverse Head and Shoulders break out confirmation

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(14-07-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Jul-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Inverse Head and Shoulders Bullish Pattern formations
2- Neckline broken out at 8390 today

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern formations and Neckline at 8390 was broken out today. Although forcefully broken out but immediately after the positive news from Greece that Eurozone leaders have agreed to offer Greece a third bailout. As news led sharp up today therefore confirmation is required through sustaining above 8390,Once confirmation will mean target of today started rally is at 8882,as per following calculation:-

Head was formed at 7940
Neckline just above head is at 8432
8432-7940= 492 points above Head 
Neckline was broken out at 8390  
Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern broken out target will be at 8390+492=8882

Following conclusive lines were told on 11-07-2015 in "Confirmation from Only One Level will mean Fresh Strong Rally":-

once sustaining above only one level(8377) will mean fresh strong rally beginning towards and above life time high(9119.20) after 4000 points rally correction completion 

As 8377 break out was Positive Greece news led therefore confirmation is required through sustaining above 8377/8390. Next resistances are between 8540-8550 and once valid break out 8550 will mean worst is over and strong rally will be seen towards 8882/9119.20 

Confirmation from Only One Level will mean Fresh Strong Rally 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 13 to Jul 17 ,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Pull Back Rally with recent top formation at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and its correction continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015  

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that its 5 waves correction started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and now Pull Back Rally continuation with its Wave-i completion at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and its corrective Wave-ii continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015.

Wave-5 with correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
3- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
4- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
5- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
6- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
7- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-i(8561.35 on 07-07-2015)
9- Wave-ii continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-5 begun after Wave-4 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 which is just below the bottom of Wave-4(7961.35) and strong Pull Back Rally begun which is a strong indication of correction completion.

Wave-i(Pull Back Rally) started after Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 which terminated at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and now its correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015,till now no confirmation of its completion. 

Retracement levels of Wave-i(7940-8561)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 13.0%- 8480
2- 23.6%- 8414
3- 27.0%- 8393
4- 38.2%- 8323(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 8250(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 8177(Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 8121
8- 76.4%- 8086
8- 78.6%- 8072
10-88.6%- 8010

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

38.2% retracement levels at 8323 has become most crucial because Nifty tested and formed bottom near about it in last 2 sessions and it finally sustaining it beyond will form next big moves. 

3 confirmations of strong rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
3- Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation
4- Bullish Flag Pattern broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it
5- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it 
6- Last 16 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224).

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Following 3 confirmations of strong rally after correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015:-

1- The correction which started from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 was in Bullish Flag Pattern which has been broken out and last 15 sessions sustaining above it therefore first confirmation of correction completion and fresh Bullish market beginning.
2- As last 16 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224) therefore Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and fresh rally beginning as well.
3- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it therefore correction completion confirmation.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(Jul 09 & Jul 10,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 09 & Jul 10,2015)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Minor selling at higher levels on 09-07-2015
2- More than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 09-07-2015
3- Consolidation between 8316-8334(Immediate Supports) on 10-07-2015
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 10-07-2015
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8316-8377 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although higher levels minor selling on 09-07-2015 but good consolidation patterns formations in last 2 sessions also therefore technically strong indication of fresh rally in next week but Indian completely under performed Global markets in following manner:-

1- Shanghai closed more than 11% up in last 2 sessions. 
2- Hang Seng closed more than 5% up in last 2 sessions. 
3- Most European markets traded during Indian trading hours and closed more than 5% up in last 2 sessions.
4- Dow's Futures traded during Indian trading hours and closed more than 300 points up in last 2 sessions.

When there was problems from Greece and China then Indian market moved down with Global markets but did not participated strong Global markets rally and remained flat in last 2 sessions therefore in this manner Indian markets completely under performed Global markets and selling on the back of such strong Global cues led heated sentiments can not be ruled out in last 2 sessions. 

As last 2 sessions technical patterns and markets psychology are showing contrary indications therefore valid break out of last 2 sessions actual trading range(8316-8377) will decide next decisive moves. Next supports are lying between 8300-8325 and finally sustaining beyond 8300-8377 will decide next big trend therefore should be firstly watched in next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All Trends are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is down
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend turned up after last 16 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224).

As above mentioned 3 confirmations of fresh strong rally and last 2 sessions testing as well as closing above 38.2% retracement levels(8323) therefore 38.2% retracement levels at 8323 has become most crucial support,finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend.

EOD Charts are suggesting high possibility of fresh rally after Wave-ii correction completion at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015 and last 2 sessions intraday consolidation patterns formations are also suggesting it but Indian markets completely under performed Global markets and selling on the back of such strong Global cues led heated sentiments can not be ruled out in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8300-8377 should be watched for next trend confirmations in next week.

4000 Points rally(5118.85-9119.20) correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Wave-i begun which completed at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015,now its correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015. Confirmation of on going correction completion is still required through sustaining beyond 8300-8377 and should be firstly watched in next week,once sustaining above only one level(8377) will mean fresh strong rally beginning towards and above life time high(9119.20) after 4000 points rally correction completion 

Indian markets slipping Despite Strong Global markets

Mid-session Outlook(10-07-2015)

At the opening time of Indian markets all the Asian markets were Green and following most Bullish positions of some markets were also seen:-

1- Shanghai was trading more than 5% up 
2- Hang Seng was trading more than 2% up 
3- Dow's Futures was trading more than 150 points up 

As such strong Global market therefore Indian markets opened with some gains but could not sustain at higher levels and started slipping after highest formation at 8376.35. Recent lowest formation at 8323 and next supports are just below it between 8300-8325.

As same formations also today like yesterday that Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in most heated sentiments therefore firstly valid break out of 8300-8374 should be watched for next trend confirmation which may be for big moves also. 

Just go through yesterday posted following topic again to understand intraday charts analysis with market psychology. 

Firstly Watch 8323-8374 for Next Trend Confirmation

Firstly Watch 8323-8374 for Next Trend Confirmation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(10-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor selling at higher levels
2- More than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day trading between 8323-8400

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although more than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel with minor selling at higher levels but Indian markets completely under performed Global markets in following manner:-

1- At the opening time of Indian markets Hang Seng was more than 700 points up and Shanghai was in Green but Indian markets moved into Red within 15 minutes after little positive opening and in this manner under performed immediately after opening.
2- All the Asian markets closed after strong recovery from lower levels and following closing was of main markets:-

1- Shanghai closed 5.79% up 
2- Hang Seng closed 3.73% up 

When above 2 markets were down yesterday then Indian markets were sharply down but today  Indian markets traded flat to negative despite such strong closing of these markets therefore in this manner completely under performed today.  
3- All the European markets opened and traded more than 1% up and Dow's Futures was also most time more than 150 points up but no positive reaction from Indian markets and Red closing after slipping therefore in this manner completely under performed today.  

As such high under performance by Indian markets today therefore possibility of whole day selling on the back of strong Global cues led sentiment can not be ruled out today. Only slight hope for the Bulls is more than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore firstly valid break out of today actual trading range(8323-8374) should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmation.