As busy therefore today Outlook is not being updated
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Strong Signals of More Weakness in Indian Markets
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(16-04-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 09 to Apr 15,2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8740-8763 on 09-04-2015
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour on 09-04-2015
3- Selling between 8761-8781 on 10-04-2015
4- Selling between 8754-8768 on 10-04-2015
5- Selling between 8777-8787 on 10-04-2015
6- Selling between 8777-8784 on 13-04-2015
7- Selling between 8810-8825 on 13-04-2015
8- Selling between 8825-8841 on 13-04-2015
9- Nifty slipped below 8740 in sharp fall of only 45 Minutes on 15-04-2015
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8802-8844
2- 121 Points sharp fall in last 45 Minutes
3- Whole day actual trading between 8723-8844
Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Selling above 8740 was continuously updated in following 3 previous sessions Outlooks:-
1- Topic posted on 14-04-2015:- Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive
2- Topic posted on 11-04-2015:- Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week
3- Topic posted on 09-04-2015:- 8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider
We cautioned and told selling in following words again and again:-
In Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive:-
1- whole day selling patterns formations and selling was seen in previous 2 sessions also therefore strong signals of selling phase continuation.
2- Short Term indicators are also in Overbought zone therefore Short Term correction possibility is very much alive
3- Short Term Correction possibility is still alive despite previous Nifty closing with 0.61% gains
In Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week:-
1- higher levels good selling in last 2 sessions therefore emergence down moves possibility
2- strong signals of fresh down moves within first 2 sessions of next week.
3- good intraday selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions and Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick formations also in last 2 sessions therefore Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in the beginning of Next Week
In 8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider:-
1- selling patterns formations were also seen at higher levels today
2- some selling patterns were also seen and next resistances are little above today highest therefore follow up consolidation is must.
As selling above 8740 in all last 3 sessions and follow up more than more than 5 hours selling today therefore Nifty slipped below 8740 in only 45 Minutes and above mentioned selling ranges between 8740-8844 will be strong resistances as well as complete consolidation will be required for fresh rally above 8844.
Long and Short Term Trends are still up and now Intermediate Term is sideways between 8269-8844,expected that Nifty will trade within this range in the coming week/weeks as well as will prepare for next big moves beyond this range.
If follow up selling develops then that will be strong indication of corrective Wave-C formation for fresh down moves below the bottom of on going correction(8269.15). As good selling in last 4 sessions and last 2 sessions trading range broken down with Engulfing Bearish Candle formation today therefore strong signals of more weakness and fresh down moves are expected also in the coming sessions.
Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(15-04-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Apr-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8777-8784
2- Selling between 8810-8825
3- Selling between 8825-8841
4- Whole day actual trading between 8763-8841
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although closing near the higher levels of the day but whole day selling patterns formations and selling was seen in previous 2 sessions also therefore strong signals of selling phase continuation. Last 3 sessions are showing selling patterns and it should be kept in mind that length of correction will depend on the size and days of selling patterns. As Short Term indicators are also in Overbought zone therefore Short Term correction possibility is very much alive and market will be healthy after its completion for fresh rally.
Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term was sideways between 8269-8788 for the 15 sessions and last Monday closing was above it at 8834. As selling patterns formations is previous 3 sessions therefore follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8788. Let it happen then fresh rally will be considered towards and above life time high(9119.20) after fresh consolidation near about following resistances:-
1- 8920-8943(weak)
2- 9023-9096(strong)
Short Term Correction possibility is still alive despite previous Nifty closing with 0.61% gains and fresh decisive moves will be considered after fresh follow up consolidation patterns formations.
Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 13 to Apr 17,2015)
Nifty-Weekly Chart (10-Apr-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(Correction beginning after 15 Years highest formation)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(9 months correction completion and Wave-1 beginning)
3- Wave-1 (6335.90 on 08-11-2010)
4- Wave-2 (4531.15 on 20-12-2011)
5- Wave-3 (life high formations at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Impulsive Wave-3 continuation,it has extended above 1.618% and its next extension levels are as follows:-
1- 1.618%- 8,858(extension completed)
2- 1.764%- 9,454
3- 1.886%- 9,952
4- 2.000%- 10,418
5- 2.236%- 11,381
6- 2.618%- 12,941
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally continuation(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Correction beginning after Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015. As 850(more than 9%) points correction and a strong signal of 5th Wave completion of that impulsive Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above all time high(9119.20) till then correction possibility of whole that 4000.35 points rally can not be ruled out which started from 5118.85 and completed at 9119.20.
Broadening Rising Channel Formations in last 8 months
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Broadening Rising Channel formation started on 08-08-2015 and since then rally continuation within this channel. As Rising Channel therefore it is a Bearish pattern and its valid breaking down will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because Channel is such 8 months long. Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet therefore view is cautious and sustaining beyond lower rising line of this channel should be watched in the coming weeks for first strong signal of next Long Term Trend.
Waves structure of Wave-5
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally continuation(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015
9- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8153
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Recent bottom formation of on going correction is at 8269.15 and after that Pull Back rally continuation with recent top formation at 8787.40 but correction completion confirmation is still required. Long Term Trend is up and its decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8153 which is 627 points below previous close therefore no threat to Long Term Trend at this moment.
Waves structure of on going Correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
2- Wave-A(8612 on 16-03-2015)
3- Wave-B(8788.20 on 18-03-2015)
4- Wave-C(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
5- Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015 which is just below the top of Wave-B(8788.20)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Wave-B completed at 8788.20 and recent top formation of on going Pull Back rally is at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015 which is just below the top of Wave-B therefore 8788.20 has become crucial now because that will decide Intermediate Term Trend which is sideways between 8269-8788 for the last 15 sessions and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 09 & Apr 10,2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Lower levels consolidation between 8683-8728 on 09-04-2015
2- Higher levels selling between 8740-8763 on 09-04-2015
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour on 09-04-2015
4- Most time good selling between 8754-8787 on 10-04-2015
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8683-8787
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although lower levels some supports but higher levels good selling in last 2 sessions therefore emergence down moves possibility as sell as sustaining below last 2 sessions lowest(8683) will mean steep fall.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8761-8781
2- Selling between 8754-8768
3- Selling between 8777-8787
4- Whole day actual trading between 8733-8787
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
54 Points sideways market in previous trading sessions(10-04-2015) with closing near the higher levels of the day but almost whole day selling patterns formations therefore strong signals of fresh down moves within first 2 sessions of next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Correction started after Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 and last 8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel which is such long Bearish pattern also therefore valid break down of its lower Rising line will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because in that situation Nifty may correct following big rallies:-
1- 5118.85 from 28-08-2013(because valid break down will its 5th wave completion confirmation)
2- 4531.15 from 20-12-2011(because valid break down will its 3rd wave completion confirmation)
Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term is sideways between 8269-8788 for the 15 sessions,finally sustaining beyond this range will be strong indication of next decisive moves. Although previous session and week closing near the higher levels of the day day/week but good intraday selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions and Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick formations also in last 2 sessions therefore Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in the beginning of Next Week. Next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond Intermediate Term deciding levels(8269-8788) and should be finally watched in the coming week/weeks.
8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(10-04-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Apr-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 8683-8714
2- Consolidation between 8702-8728
3- Selling between 8740-8763
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8683-8785
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following line was told yesterday in "Very Short Term Down Moves Possibility":-
As some selling today therefore very Short Term down moves possibility with slipping below today lowest(8680)
Following lines were told today at 07:50:00 AM in "Pre-open Outlook(09-04-2015)":-
1- India’s Rating Outlook Raised by Moody’s on Economic Prospects
2- As most positive news today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets
3- Markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels after such strong news
As selling yesterday therefore Very Short Term down moves possibility was told and it was seen immediately after opening and Nifty slipped 73 points in first hour but from higher level because most positive news and Nifty got supports at 8682.45 which was just above yesterday lowest(8680)
Although good supports at lower levels today but selling patterns formations were also seen at higher levels today therefore some more consolidation like today is firstly required for next decisive up moves.
Following resistances were updated in Outlooks of previous sessions:-
1- 8738-8788(strong)
2- 8805-8825(weak)
3- 8920-8943(weak)
4- 9023-9096(strong)
1st resistance has been almost cleared today but some selling patterns were also seen and next resistances are little above today highest therefore follow up consolidation is must. Once forceful break out / sustaining above 8825 will mean possibility of fast 100 points rally and emergence of correction completion hopes also after Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations.
Certainly 8825 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond it should be firstly watched now for next Big moves confirmations.
Pre-open Outlook(09-04-2015)
Sentiment is strong today morning after following news:-
Rally is on but some selling patterns were seen yesterday therefore very Short Term down moves possibility was considered for today market. As most positive news today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets. Markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels after such strong news and this possibility can not be ruled out because Long and Short Term Trends are up and rally is on.
Rally is on but some selling patterns were seen yesterday therefore very Short Term down moves possibility was considered for today market. As most positive news today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets. Markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels after such strong news and this possibility can not be ruled out because Long and Short Term Trends are up and rally is on.
Very Short Term Down Moves Possibility
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(09-04-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (8-Apr-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8700-8716 in first hour.
2- Mixed Patterns between 8700-8730 in last 4 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8680-8730
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly selling and after that Mixed Patterns formations in last 4 hours therefore an indication of some down moves. Next resistances are 8738-8825 and selling seen just below it today. As more selling is required for decisive therefore follow up selling tomorrow will mean correction of last 7 sessions rally between 8269-8730.
As some selling today therefore very Short Term down moves possibility with slipping below today lowest(8680) can not be ruled out but sustaining below it is must after complete follow up selling for correction beginning.
As some selling today therefore very Short Term down moves possibility with slipping below today lowest(8680) can not be ruled out but sustaining below it is must after complete follow up selling for correction beginning.
Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(08-04-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Apr-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8662-8693(Immediate Resistances)
2- Consolidation Patterns between 8586-8617(Immediate Supports)
3- High volatility after RBI Credit Policy.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8586-8693
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As last more than 2 hours up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel were seen yesterday therefore following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy:-
firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations;-
1- Forceful break out or sustaining above 8825 will mean clearing 2 resistances and fresh rally after correction completion.
2- Forceful break down or sustaining below 8627 will mean fresh down moves after Pull Back Rally completion in 1st Resistance range.
As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow therefore Indian Markets may be highly volatile also and finally above crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy.
Nifty slipped below 8627 but without required force after negative sensing unchanged RBI Credit Policy and lower levels consolidation was also seen today therefore some up moves were seen in last hour. As first hour selling between 8662-8693 and next resistances are just above it between 8738-8825 therefore firstly follow up consolidation is required for next decisive up moves.
Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8825. Certainly positive indication after closing above 8627 after consolidation below it between 8586-8617 therefore Pull Back Rally continuation will be expected towards 8825. Let Nifty sustain above 8825 after complete follow up consolidation then rally above life time high will be considered after Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations.
As we were neither Bullish nor Bearish for today Credit Policy therefore we updated only Crucial levels yesterday and same view today that Nifty will firstly prepare for next trend between 8586-8825 in the coming 2/3 sessions but Pull Back Rally will be seen within sideways market. Let Nifty prepare then next trend will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations in the coming sessions.
Crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(07-04-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Apr-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Almost 4 hours sideways trading with mixed Patterns between 8574-8600
2- Last more than 2 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8574-8667
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following resistances were updated 04-04-2015 in "Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time":-
1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096
Importance of 8521-8627 was told in almost all the Outlooks of last 1 week and Nifty closed above it today but as such consolidation patterns were not seen at lower levels and last more than 2 hours up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel as well as today closing is within above mentioned 1st resistance range therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations;-
1- Forceful break out or sustaining above 8825 will mean clearing 2 resistances and fresh rally after correction completion.
2- Forceful break down or sustaining below 8627 will mean fresh down moves after Pull Back Rally completion in 1st Resistance range.
As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow therefore Indian Markets may be highly volatile also and finally above crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy.
Pre-open Outlook(06-04-2015)
As US jobs report(March) came in much weaker than expected therefore U.S. stock and index futures declined sharply on Friday:-
1- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 165 points(-0.93%)
2- S&P-500 futures fell 19.75 points(0.96%)
3- Nasdaq-100 futures lost 43.75 points(-1.03%)
1- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 165 points(-0.93%)
2- S&P-500 futures fell 19.75 points(0.96%)
3- Nasdaq-100 futures lost 43.75 points(-1.03%)
In long run it is positive news because Fed hike seems remote in June FOMC meet after this report but Asian markets may react negative and initial weakness possibility can not be ruled out next Monday.
Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 06 to Apr 10,2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 20 to Apr 01,2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4 Sessions actual trading within 8521-8627 between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015
2- 4 Sessions range broken down on 26/03/2015 after the news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen.
3- 5 Sessions Volatility with both higher levels selling and equally good lower levels supports
4- Weekly closing at 8586.25 on 01-04-2015 which is between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627)
5- 9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627
Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Following Weekly Analysis Topic of previous week was updated on 28-03-2015
8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally
Pull Back Rally expectations was told and 334 Points Pull Back rally was seen in previous week as well as weekly closing of Nifty was at 8586.25 which if within mentioned range(8521-8627)
Although 4 Sessions actual trading range(8521-8627) was with good consolidation and minor selling but range broken down on 26/03/2015 after negative news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen therefore complete selling was required for sustaining below 8521. As on the contrary good lower levels consolidations and higher levels follow up consolidation was also seen in the next 5 Volatile Sessions after 26/03/2015 therefore not sustaining below 8521 and Weekly closing at 8586.25 between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) and this range has become most crucial for deciding next trend.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Mixed Patterns between 8464-8499
2- Sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020"
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8517-8542
4- Up moves in last hour between 8542-8603
5- Whole day actual trading between 8464-8603
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
First 3 hours negative zone trading with mixed patterns formations but sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020". As Follow up consolidation between 8517-8542 after sudden jump and last hour up moves between 8464-8603 which is within mentioned 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) therefore emergence of fresh up moves expectations in the beginning of next week.
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- 334 Points Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015
Waves structure of Wave-5
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
7- Wave-A(8612 on 16-03-2015)
8- Wave-B(8788.20 on 18-03-2015)
9- Wave-C(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
10- Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long Term Trend is up,Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down. The rally which started at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after its 5th Wave completion. Its 5th Wave was extended and its 5th Wave also completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction begun which completed at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015. Calculation of 'ABC' correction is as follows:-
9119.20(Wave-A top)
8612.00(Wave-A bottom)
---------
507.20(Wave-A corrected)
---------------------------------
8788.20(Wave-C top)
8269.15(Wave-C bottom)
---------
519.05(Wave-C corrected)
---------
Wave-C corrected almost same points as Wave-A corrected therefore confirmation of this 'ABC' wave completion.
As confirmation of 5th Wave completion of that impulsive Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above all time high(9119.20) till then correction possibility of whole this 4000.35 points rally can not be ruled out which started from 5118.85 and completed at 9119.20.
Certainly Pull Back Rally continuation and finally sustaining beyond 8269-9119 will decide the fate of on going correction. Supports and resistances within this range are as follows:-
Supports:-
1- 8517-8542
2- 8464-8499
3- 8382-8403
4- 8337-8356
5- 8269-8331
Resistances:-
1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096
9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627 and previous week closing within it at 8586.25 after lower lower levels good consolidations in last 4 sessions. As selling patterns have not developed yet therefore Pull Back Rally continuation is expected in the beginning of next week and once sustaining above 9 Sessions highest(8627) will mean strong rally towards above mentioned resistances.
As multiple supports and resistances are between 8269-9119 therefore expected that Nifty will remain sideways within this range in the coming couple of weeks and prepare for next big moves. Finally sustaining it beyond should be watched for next Big following trend:-
1- Sustaining above 9119 will mean fresh strong rally after less than 23.6% correction completion at 8269.
2- Sustaining below 8269 will mean correction continuation towards following retracement levels:-
23.6%- 8174
27.0%- 8038
38.2%- 7590
50.0%- 7118
61.8%- 6646
70.7%- 6290
76.4%- 6062
78.6%- 5974
88.6%- 5574
Most positive news of Land acquisition ordinance re-promulgation on 3rd Apr and RBI Credit Policy on 7th Apr,if positive surprise by Raghuram Rajan then strong rally will be seen because market is well prepared for it this time after good consolidation at lower levels in last 4 sessions.
Mid-session Outlook(01-04-2015)
First 3 hours negative zone trading but sudden jump after the announcement of market friendly "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020" and testing of immediate resistance range(8521-8550). Although good selling within this range yesterday but Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020 is also equally good therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for the confirmations actual impact / reactions of Policy on Indian Stock Markets.
Pre-open Outlook(01-04-2015)
Good consolidation between 8269-8356 on 27-03-2015 and equally good selling between 8521-8550 on 31-03-2015 therefore Nifty will remain sideways between 8269-8550 in the coming 2/3 sessions as well as will prepare for next decisive moves within this range.
Certainly correction continuation is expected in the coming sessions but up to 8269 and finally sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation / completion confirmations.
Correction Continuation after Follow up Good Selling
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(01-04-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Mar-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 4 hours selling between 8521-8550(Immediate Resistance)
2- 90 Points sharp fall in 20 minutes
3- Whole day actual trading between 8454-8550
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following conclusive lines were told on 30-03-2015 in 8521-8627 is next trend decider:-
1- Expected that Nifty will trade between above mentioned range(8521-8627) and will prepare for next decisive moves
2- As this range is next trend decider therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations in the coming sessions
Following conclusive line was told on 28-03-2015 in 8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally:-
Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.
As was told in the Outlooks of last 2 sessions 100% same happened:-
1- Strong Pull Back Rally was seen and Nifty closed 150 points up on 30-03-2015.
2- Nifty traded between above mentioned range(8521-8627) today and traded between 8521-8550.
Firstly more than 4 hours selling between 8521-8550 and after that sharp 90 Points fall in 20 minutes today therefore breaking down confirmation of 8521-8627. Correction is on and its continuation confirmation today after follow up selling between 8521-8550 and until Nifty will not sustain above it after follow up consolidation till then next up moves will not be considered.
Although flat closing today but follow up good selling between 8521-8627 today therefore correction continuation is expected in the coming sessions.
8521-8627 is next trend decider
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(31-03-2015)
Following line with detailed analysis was told on 28-03-2015 in 8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally:-
Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.
As was told 100% same happened and strong Pull Back Rally was seen as well as Nifty closed 150 points up today.
Expected that Nifty will trade between above mentioned range(8521-8627) and will prepare for next decisive moves. As this range is next trend decider therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations in the coming sessions.
(As extremely busy today therefore detailed analysis is not being updated)
8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 30 to Apr 01,2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Mar-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation Patterns between 8337-8356
2- Consolidation between 8269-8331(Immediate Supports)
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8334-8346
4- Whole day actual trading between 8269-8392
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although flat closing but whole day good consolidation therefore Pull Back Rally possibility in the beginning of next week
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 started)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Following most positive news flow in March Derivative series:-
1- Market Friendly Union Budget on 28-02-2015.
2- RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015.
3- Insurance Laws Amendment Bill, 2015 was passed by the Rajya Sabha on 13-03-2015.
4- Positive news of rates hike delaying in FOMC on 18-03-2015 night.
Surprising most encouraging news of RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015 and new life time high formation also same day but that correction beginning which remain continued till the last day on March Derivative series.
Nifty traded 4 sessions between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015 within 8521-8627 with intraday consolidation patterns but this range was forcefully broken down on 26/03/2015 because all the Global markets were most depressed due to following negative news:-
1- Saudi Arabia launches air strikes in Yemen.
2- Greece Crisis enhancement news because Greece cash crisis takes turn for worse.
Indian markets also reacted negative and Nifty closed 209 points down on 26/03/2015 as well as gave Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation after slipping below 8470.50. As above mentioned 4 sessions trading was with consolidation patterns and this range was broken down due to negative news therefore if follow up consolidation develops in next week after intraday consolidation on 27-03-2015 then sustaining above 8627 will give strong indication of correction completion.
As selling developed after above mentioned encouraging and positive news and following resistances have developed at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is also required rally continuation:-
1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096
At present Short and Intermediate term trends are down and Long Term Trend is still up,its decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8111. Wave-5 started from 7961.35 and it is just below 8111 therefore these 2 levels become most crucial. Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet as well as some more down moves possibilities can not be ruled out therefore sustaining beyond 8111 / 7961.35 sould be watched in the coming week / weeks for deciding the fate of Long Term Trend. It should be kept in mind that Wave-1 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its 5th Wave completion confirmation on 26/03/2015,if Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8111) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace that rally which started from 5118.85.
As Oscillators are oversold and good intraday consolidation on 27/03/2015 therefore Pull Back rally in expected in the beginning of next week but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and if it happens near about following retracement levels that will be first strong signal of correction completion:-
1- 0.707%- 8300(Retraced and closing above it on 27/03/2015 )
2- 0.764%- 8234
3- 0.786%- 8208
4- 0.886%- 8093
Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.
Correction confirmation and 8109/7961 will decide Long Term Trend
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(27-03-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Mar-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8436-8499
2- Sharp down in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 9326-8499
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following weekly analysis topic was posted on 22-03-2015:-
Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week
As intraday charts of last 4 sessions were showing consolidation patterns therefore it was expected that Impulsive Sub Wave-1 will remain continued and finally fresh rally will start after follow up consolidation today despite weakness in US and European markets yesterday but I proved wrong because Sentiment turned most depressed today morning because US markets closed near the lowest of the day yesterday after last hour sharp down. Resultant gap down opening of Indian markets was seen and Impulsive Sub Wave-1 failing confirmation in first minute today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50. As Dow's Futures slipped more than 160 points and European markets also slipped after opening therefore no respite for Indian markets and whole day crashing like situation was seen today.
Short Term Trend was already down and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50 and it means correction continuation confirmation from 3 weeks to 3 months.
Wave-5 started from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and its completion confirmation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015(on RBI Rates cut day) therefore Nifty will firstly correct that rally which started from 7961.35. Long Term Trend is still up and its decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8109. As 7961.35 is just above 8109 therefore finally sustaining beyond 8109 / 7961.35 will decide the fate of Long Term Trend.
Wave-1 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 completion confirmation today. If Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8109) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace whole that rally which started from 5118.85 and these levels should be watched in the coming weeks for Long Term Trend confirmations.
As Oscillators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day after 1/2 sessions lower levels consolidation but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and following retracement levels of Wave-5 should be firstly watched in the coming 1/2 sessions for Pull Back rally:-
[0.618] 8,403.3600(Retraced today but Most crucial level)
[0.707] 8,300.2900
[0.764] 8,234.2900
[0.786] 8,208.8100
[0.886] 8,093.0100
Mid-session Outlook(26-03-2015)
Most positive news flow in March Derivative series but correction beginning and Bullish Waves structure failed on the expiry day of settlement today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50. Certainly I proved wrong and as per Elliot Waves Theory Waves should be recounted in such situations. Whole Waves structure will be understood on long Charts and then will be updated accordingly.
Finally positive closing Possibility after 5th Session follow up Consolidation
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(26-03-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Mar-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Minor selling patterns formations
4- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8516-8573
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were posted on 22-03-2015 in weekly analysis topic in Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week:-
1- firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next big moves between 8470.50-8640
2- Until Nifty will not slip below 8470.50 till then mentioned Waves structure will maintain and possibility of Sub Wave-3 formations will remain alive for fresh up moves above the top of Sub Wave-1(9119.20)
3- Semi Final between Bulls & Bears will be played between 8470.50-8640 in Next week and its break out will decide their big victory.
Following lines were told on 22-03-2015 in Bulls Final Match Possibility with 9119.20:-
it seems that Indian markets have entered into consolidation phase and follow up consolidation in the coming sessions will Mean Bulls will play Final match with 9119.20.
Following lines were told yesterday in Fresh rally possibility above 8640:-
1- consolidation patterns were also seen today and complete consolidation was seen on 20th and 23rd Mar therefore fresh up moves hopes above 8640 are alive but follow up consolidation is must in the coming 2/3 sessions
2- Emergence of fresh up moves signals after broken out of 8470.50-8640 but follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640.
Although some selling patterns formations but on the other hand consolidations patterns were also seen today and Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel which is good intraday consolidation therefore it will be understood that Indian markets are under consolidation phase because sufficiently good consolidation patterns were seen in last 3 sessions also.
As US markets are in deep Red and Dow Jones is trading more than 200 points down and most European markets closed more than 1% down as well as SGX Nifty is trading 58 points down therefore if such depressed closing will be seen in US markets today then sentiment may be completely depressed tomorrow morning and all Asian markets will possibly trade in negative zone. In such dampened sentiments initial weakness in Indian markets can not be ruled out but we can not ignore last 4 sessions consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will not slip below 8470.50 and finally Indian markets will close positive after follow up 5th session consolidation.
Fresh rally possibility above 8640
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(25-03-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Mar-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Selling patterns formation between 8578-8602
3- Minor consolidation between 8547-8563
4- Mixed Patterns formations at higher levels between 8601-8627
5- Minor consolidation between 8538-8550
6- High Volatility
7- Whole day actual trading between 8535-8627
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in Bulls Final Match Possibility with 9119.20:-
1- emergence of fresh up moves signal
2- follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640
As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and up moves started immediately after opening as well as Nifty traded 77 points up today. It was clearly told that follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640 and Nifty could not move above 8640 because follow up consolidation was not seen but on the contrary following selling patterns were also seen in first 4 hours today:-
1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Selling patterns formation between 8578-8602
As lower levels consolidation and Mixed Patterns formations at higher levels with 92 points high volatility was also seen in last more than 2 hours today therefore view will not be Bearish despite today closing near the lowest of the day today because Technical positions reverses also in such today like high volatility.
Following lines were told on 22-03-2015 in Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week:-
firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next big moves between 8470.50-8640 for following decisive big moves:-
1- Once slipping below 8470.50 will mean Sharp fall
2- Sustaining above 8640 after complete consolidation will mean first strong signal of Sub Wave-3 formation towards new life time high above 9119.20
Although selling patterns formations in first 4 hours today but consolidation patterns were also seen today and complete consolidation was seen on 20th and 23rd Mar therefore fresh up moves hopes above 8640 are alive but follow up consolidation is must in the coming 2/3 sessions.
As today Candle is Inverted Hammer / Gravestone Doji Bullish and adding of one more signal of up moves on today EOD chart therefore increasing of fresh rally possibilities after getting supports above 8470.50.
Finally following almost same conclusion which updated yesterday:-
Emergence of fresh up moves signals after broken out of 8470.50-8640 but follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640. Once sustaining above it will mean fresh up moves with emergence Sub Wave-3 formation possibility for rally above 9119.20 in the coming weeks/months despite last 3 sessions closing near the lowest of the day.
Bulls Final Match Possibility with 9119.20
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(24-03-2015)
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation Patterns between 8560-8582
2- Down moves after weak opening of European markets.
3- 5 Waves of Bullish Falling Wedge formations in last hours
4- Double bottom Supports in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 8540-8608
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although down moves after at 01:35 PM and negative closing today but following points will also be considered:-
1- Down moves after at 01:35 PM was due to weak opening of European markets.
2- As such selling patterns were not seen today.
3- 2 Hours good consolidation between 8560-8582
4- 5 Waves of "Bullish Falling Wedge formations" in last hours
5- Double bottom Supports in last hour
As above consolidation Patterns formations also seen today therefore it will be understood that Indian market has started consolidation because whole day all "Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels" were seen last Friday also.
As good consolidation patterns formations in last 2 sessions therefore it seems that Indian markets have entered into consolidation phase and follow up consolidation in the coming sessions will Mean Bulls will play Final match with 9119.20.
We clearly mean that emergence of fresh up moves signal but follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640 and once sustaining above it will mean fresh up moves with emergence Sub Wave-3 formation possibility for rally above 9119.20 in the coming weeks/months.
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