Fresh Rally continuation after Pennant Pattern broken out Confirmations

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(20-01-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and correction beginning.
2- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 28 Sessions Correction
3- 'Pennant Pattern' broken out on 15-01-2015 after RBI Repo Rates cut

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As waves structure was not completed and 'Pennant Pattern' broken out after RBI Repo Rates cut as well as Nifty sustained above Upper line of Pennant in last 3 sessions therefore 'Pennant Pattern' broken out and fresh rally after correction completion confirmations.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with intraday consolidations
2- Consolidation between 8532-8548
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8532-8570

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although some selling patterns were seen in last 2 sessions but higher levels consolidations was seen today therefore emergence of fresh rally expectations after last 31 sessions correction completion. Next resistances are as follows:-

1- 8558-8582
2- 8600-8616

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

'Pennant Pattern' broken out with huge gap on 15-01-2015 and higher levels consolidations was seen today therefore expected that rally will remain continued. As Short term Oscillators are Overbought and above mentioned resistances are lying just above today highest therefore some more consolidation is firstly required for fresh up moves above all time highest.

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Intraday Levels and Trading Strategy 
For 20-01-2015 

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For Intraday traders- "Levels" and "Trading Strategy" are updated daily in the left of this Blog

For Intraday trading Policies- Just click on following "Topic link" and trade according to given "Levels" and "Trading Strategy":-

Trading Policies of "Levels" and "Trading Strategy

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8455-8480
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Mixed Patterns between 8507-8526
5- Whole day actual trading between 8453-8530

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Following lines were told on 15-01-2015 in "Most Bullish news led Strong Rally require Confirmation"

Last 3 hours trading between 8469-8527 and this range broken down therefore higher levels Profit Booking  will be considered and firstly sustaining above today highest should be watched for next up moves confirmations.

Profit booking was told between 8469-8527 and Nifty traded most time as well as closed within this range on 16-01-2015.

Although selling patterns formations were also seen on 16-01-2015 but Indian markets out performed Global cues in following manner:-

1- When all the Asian markets were in deep Red and Dow's Futures was trading more than 140 points down then at that time Nifty opened flat.
2- Most Indian Indices closed in Green despite Red closing of Most Asian markets 

Although Dow's Futures traded in deep Red during Indian trading hours but Dow Jones closed 190 points up last Friday and resultant SGX Nifty also closed 88 points up therefore sentiment may remain strong and gap up opening can not be ruled out next Monday. It should be kept in mind that both consolidation and selling patterns formations were seen between 8453-8530 in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the beginning of next week for next trend confirmations

As Waves structure suddenly changed after Repo Rate Cut by RBI and completely mixed patterns on intraday charts last Friday therefore firstly follow up moves and sustaining beyond 8453-8530 will be watched in the coming 1/2 sessions and then next decisive moves will updated after final conclusions.

Our Policy is:- "No gossiping never guessing and whatsoever market suggest,only that is always updated"

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Intraday Levels and Trading Strategy 
For 19-01-2015 

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For Intraday traders- "Levels" and "Trading Strategy" are updated daily in the left of this Blog

For Intraday trading Policies- Just click on following "Topic link" and trade according to given "Levels" and "Trading Strategy":-

Trading Policies of "Levels" and "Trading Strategy

Most Bullish news led Strong Rally require Confirmation

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(16-01-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (15-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 28 Sessions Correction

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

28 Sessions Correction was seen within 'Pennant Pattern' and its upward line was broken out forcefully and got intraday support also on it today but on the back of most Bullish news of RBI repo rates cut therefore sustaining above it should be firstly watched for on going correction completion after break out of 'Pennant Pattern'.

As today strong moves were on the back of most Bullish news therefore Waves will be recounted according to sustainability at higher levels and will be updated accordingly in the coming sessions's Outlooks

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8400-8437
2- Last 3 hours range(8469-8527) broken down after higher levels Profit Booking
3- Whole day actual trading between 8381-8527

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although good selling in last 2 sessions and correction continuation was expected also but RBI cuts repo rates by 25 basis points a fortnight ahead of the scheduled date of monetary policy announcement on February 3. As RBI has been keeping the benchmark interest rate at elevated level at 8 per cent since January 2014 therefore this news most happily surprised and huge gap up opening seen today. As Bull markets consolidate at higher levels also therefore Nifty consolidated firstly because selling was seen in previous sessions.

Last 3 hours trading between 8469-8527 and this range broken down therefore higher levels Profit Booking  will be considered and firstly sustaining above today highest should be watched for next up moves confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and Indian markets are most Bullish but corrections are technical requirements which is being seen for the last 29 sessions. As correction was within  Pennant Pattern formations therefore its importance was updated on 12-01-2015 in "Nifty will give First Strong Indication of Next Big Moves from Pennant Pattern Break Out".  

Although Waves structure was suggesting more down moves but Pennant was forcefully broken out today. As whole day trading of today was Most Bullish news led therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched in the coming sessions for:-

1- Next strong rally after correction completion above 8527 because last 3 hours selling below it 
2- For correction continuation towards and below 7961 because Nifty got supports exactly at upper line on 8381 and its broken down will mean most Bullish news led false break out

Rate Cut by RBI

As positive surprise by RBI and Repo rates reduced by 25 bps therefore huge gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets because it is beginning new Rates Cut Cycle after a long time also. 

Correction continuation

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(15-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8300-8326 (Immediate Resistances)
2- Support between 8237-8264 (Immediate Supports)
3- Pennant Pattern formations
4- Whole day actual trading between 8237-8326

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Both higher levels selling patterns and lower levels supports with high intraday volatility therefore no clear signals from today intraday patterns. As Pennant Pattern formations today therefore valid break out of its lines will be next immediate moves first indication but more consolidation is firstly required for any decisive up moves. 

Wave'c' of Wave'C' started yesterday after good selling and its continuation is expected towards 7961 because as such consolidation was not seen today which may suggest any decisive up move.

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Intraday Levels and Trading Strategy 
For 15-01-2015 

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For Intraday traders- "Levels" and "Trading Strategy" are updated daily in the left of this Blog

For Intraday trading Policies- Just click on following "Topic link" and trade according to given "Levels" and "Trading Strategy":-

Trading Policies of "Levels" and "Trading Strategy

Strong Indication of Fresh Down Moves beginning

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(14-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8336-8356 
2- Whole day actual trading between 8268-8356

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As more than 5 hours selling within 20 points range between 8336-8356 and this range broken down forcefully therefore this range will be immediate Resistance of Nifty and it is strong indication of fresh down moves beginning towards/below 7961 as well as until complete consolidation will not happen till then Nifty will not sustain above 8356.

Wave'b' of Wave'C' continuation with its recent top formation at 8356.65 on 13-01-2015 and follow up selling as well as finally sustaining below 8336 will mean Wave'b' of Wave'C' completion and Wave'c' of Wave'C' beginning for fresh down moves below 7961.

As Dow's Futures is trading more than 100 points up and most European markets are also trading more than 1% up as well as SGX Nifty is 47 points up at this moment therefore if such Bullishness maintains in Global markets tomorrow then Indian markets may open strong nad close in Green on 14-01-2015 but our view is same which has been updated above. 

Nifty will give First Strong Indication of Next Big Moves from Pennant Pattern Break Out 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(13-01-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and 'ABC' correction beginning.
2- Wave'A'(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
3- Wave'a' of Wave'B'(8364.75 on 23-12-2014)
4- Wave'b' of Wave'B'(8147.95 on 26-12-2014)
5- Wave'c' of Wave'B'(8445.60 on 05-01-2015) 
6- Wave'a' of Wave'C'(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
7- Wave'b' of Wave'C' continuation with its recent top formation at 8332.60 on 12-01-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

It should also be kept in mind that 26 Sessions Correction continuation with Pennant Pattern formations and valid break out of Pennant line(Upper or lower) will be strong indication of correction completion/continuation.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8287-8297
2- Buying between 8275-8283
3- Consolidation between 8253-8369
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8245-8332

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow's Futures recovered more than 100 points from lower levels and traded more than 80 points up after 12:30 PM and all European markets started to trade with good gains after positive opening therefore sentiment improved and Indian markets recovered from lower levels and closed near the higher levels of the day.

Although Nifty closed 0.46% up but as such consolidation was not seen and selling patterns were also seen therefore view will not be Bullish because today up moves were on the back of Global markets Bullish sentiments and not after complete consolidation as well as Up moves were with Bearish Rising Channel.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

26 Sessions Correction between 7961-8626 with lower levels supports/consolidations and higher levels Resistances/selling therefore some more preparations(fresh positions formations) is still required for valid break out of this range and confirmation of deeper correction continuation below 7961 or correction completion above 8626. As correction continuation with Pennant Pattern formations therefore valid break out of its lines will give first strong indication of next big moves.

As Waves theory is suggesting that Wave'C' is on for down moves below 7961 therefore expected that Nifty will not move above Wave'c' of Wave'B'(8445.60) and will slip below 7961 after follow up selling in the coming sessions.  

Mid-session Outlook(12-01-2015)

As Nifty is trading almost flat for the last 2 hours between 8275-8297 with mixed patterns formations(means both buying and selling) therefore view is cautious and firstly valid break out of this range should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations because Indian markets will react to IIP and CPI also.

Correction continuation 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(12-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8275-8303 (Immediate Resistances)
2- Selling between 8238-8272 (Immediate Resistances)
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel after 02:00 PM
4- Whole day actual trading between 8191-8303

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the highest of the day but good selling and last hour up moves in Bearish Rising Channel also therefore expected that finally Nifty will slip and sustain below day's lowest(8191) as well as correction will remain continued.

Correction continuation and no Confirmation of its Completion yet

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(09-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8169-8205(recent supports)
2- Whole day actual trading between 8169-8243

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow's Futures was 120 points up before the opening of Indian markets and all the Asian markets were trading with good gains therefore huge gap up and 89 points positive opening today. Firstly more than 4 hours consolidation and closing of today near the higher levels of the day therefore signals of today started Pull Back Rally continuation.

As US markets are trading more than 1.70% up at this moment after European markets strong(2.26% to 3.69% up) closing therefore all the Asian markets may also remain in blasting mood tomorrow and resultant Indian markets will also remain positive after gap up opening. Although most Bullish sentiments but it should be kept in mind that Indian markets are in correction mode and Wave'C' is on for down moves below 7961 therefore expected that finally selling will develop within 1/2 sessions and downward moves will start.

More than 4 hours selling between 8194-8233 on 06-01-2015 and Nifty crossed as well as closed above it today but on the back of strong Global cues therefore firstly sustaining above 8233 should be firstly watched tomorrow. Good consolidation at lower levels today therefore complete selling is required for decisive down moves below today lowest but expected that finally down moves will restart after follow up selling in the coming sessions because correction is very much on and no confirmation of its completion yet.

Finally down after 2/3 sessions Sideways Trading

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(08-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8130-8151
2- Selling between 8113-8136
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Support between 8066-8092
5- Whole day actual trading between 8066-8151

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although recovery from lower levels and closing near the higher levels of the day but sufficient selling patterns formations also seen at higher levels therefore correction continuation possibility remains alive. As Dow's Futures is more than 150 points up at this moment and most European markets are more than 1.20% up therefore sentiment may be strong tomorrow and some up moves may be seen in Indian markets also.

If Global markets remain strong tomorrow then Nifty will trade in Green but finally Nifty will not sustain above today highest and will remain sideways 8151-8233 with positive zone trading. Expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(8151) and will finally slip below today lowest(8066) in the coming 2/3 sessions.

Wave'C' is on for down moves below 7961

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(07-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours selling between 8194-8233(Immediate Resistance)
2- Whole day actual trading between 8111-8267

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

We posted following topic on 31-12-2014:-

Bears will welcome in 2015

Today was 4th trading session of 2015 and Nifty lost 251 points with closing at the lowest of last 12 sessions(8127.35) as well as such huge fall was seen 6 years before on 22-01-2008

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "8550 is most crucial level":-

1- Wave'c' of Wave'B' will complete between 8431-8550
2- Wave'C' will begin towards new lows below 7961
3- Next resistances above today highest are between 8510-8614 and 8550 is lying within it therefore Nifty will not easily cross this resistance range.

Nifty could not cross mentioned resistance range(8510-8614) and moved sharply down today after loosing 3% Nifty points.

Nifty closed near the lowest of the day today after more than 4 hours selling between 8194-8233 and until complete consolidation will not happen as well as Nifty will not sustain above 8233 till then next up moves will not be seen. As very Short Term Indicators are oversold therefore only Pull back rally may be seen any day which will not be abole to sustain above 8233. Wave'C' is on for down moves below the lowest of Wave'A'(7961) and finally that will be seen in the coming sessions.

8550 is most crucial level

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 06 to Jan 09,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and 'ABC' correction beginning.
2- Wave'A' completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave'B' beginning
3- Wave'a' of Wave'B' completion at 8364.75 on 23-12-2014
4- Wave'B' of Wave'B' completion at 8147.95 on 26-12-2014
5- Wave'c' of Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8445.60 on 05-05-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave'A' of 'ABC' correction begun after Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 which completed at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave'B' started in "abc" mode. Now Wave'c' of Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of Wave'B' are as follows(7961-8626):-

13.0%-8047 
23.6%-8117 
27.0%-8140 
38.2%-8215 
50.0%-8293 
61.8%-8371 
70.7%-8431 
76.4%-8469 
78.6%-8483 
88.6%-8550

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2015):-

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Wave'a' of Wave'B' gained 403 points(8364-7961)
Wave'B' of Wave'B' completed at 8147 and Wave'c' of Wave'B' started.
If Wave'c' of Wave'B' gains 100% points of Wave'a' of Wave'B' then its maximum target will be at 8550(8147+403)

8550 becomes most crucial level because 88.6% Retracement Level is also exactly at 8550.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8430-8445 
2- Selling between 8405-8515
3- Support between 8383-8387
4- Support between 8364-8375
5- Whole day actual trading between 8364-8445

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

It was a volatile day today with higher levels selling and lower levels buying as well therefore firstly sustaining beyond today trading range should be watched for first strong signal of next decisive moves commencement and the continuation/completion of Wave'c' of Wave'B'.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Expected that Wave'c' of Wave'B' will complete between 8431-8550 and Wave'C' will begin towards new lows below 7961. Next resistances above today highest are between 8510-8614 and 8550 is lying within it therefore Nifty will not easily cross this resistance range.

Follow up moves and finally sustaining beyond 8364-8445 will decide the fate of Wave'c' of Wave'B'for up moves up to 8550/down moves below 7961. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(05-01-2015)

Selling patterns formations between 8405-8415 in last 1 hour today.

Mid-session Outlook(05-01-2015)

Although now trading near the lower levels of the day after loosing most intraday gains but some supports seen at lower levels and out performing Global Cues as well therefore firstly today trading range(8390-8445) and finally following Fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for the confirmations of on going correction continuation/completion confirmations:-

61.8%-8371 
70.7%-8431 
76.4%-8469 
78.6%-8483 
88.6%-8550 

As I have been busy therefore today Outlook could not be prepared and not being posted but Mid-session Outlook will be positively updated during trading hours today.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(02-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8262-8280 
2- Mixed Patterns formations between 8280-8294 in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 8249-8294

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day good selling yesterday therefore most time negative zone trading after weak opening today. Good selling between 8218-8286 in previous sessions but today most time trading with closing within this range with Mixed Patterns formations therefore view is cautious and  firstly follow up moves with sustaining beyond this range should be watched tomorrow for next immediate trend confirmations.

Bears will welcome in 2015

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(01-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8268-8080
2- Selling Patterns formations at higher levels between 8280-8291
3- Whole day actual trading between 8251-8291

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time positive zone trading with closing near the higher levels of the day but good selling seen today therefore fresh down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

As selling seen in previous sessions also therefore expected that finally down moves will be seen below 8218/8155/7961.35 and Bear will welcome in 2015.

Fresh Down Moves Possibility despite today Closing near the Higher Levels

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation and supports between 8221-8237
2- Whole day actual trading between 8221-8268

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told today at 10:17 AM in Mid-session Outlook(30-12-2014)

sustaining beyond 8218-8286 should be watched for next decisive move confirmations.

Nifty traded between 8220.55-8268.25 with lower levels consolidations today but higher levels selling was seen within following ranges on:-

1- 29-12-2014 between 8260-8279
2- 24-12-2014 between 8218-8286

Although selling above 8218 on 24-12-2014 but not slipping below it today despite most depressed Asian markets because Union Cabinet approved amendment to Land Acquisiton Act after Indian Stock Market closing yesterday. As consolidation and supports above 8218 between 8221-8237 today therefore firstly sustaining below 8221 should be watched for next down moves confirmations.

Although Nifty closed near the higher levels of today but lower levels supports between 8221-8237 are not strong and until Nifty will not sustain above 8286 till then decisive up moves will not be considered. It must be kept in mind that failure to cross or sustain above 8286 and fresh selling below or near about 8286 will mean high possibility of fresh sharp down moves below 8218.

As strong indications of corrective Wave'C' continuation towards and below 7961.35 after Wave'B' termination at 8364 on 23-12-2014 therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above 8286 and fresh down moves will be seen below 8218 after fresh selling below or near about 8286 within next 2/3 days.  

Mid-session Outlook(30-12-2014)

As Union Cabinet cleared ordinance to ease land acquisitions in reforms push after market yesterday therefore Indian markets are flat to positive despite good selling at higher levels yesterday. Certainly view is cautious after such encouraging development and firstly sustaining beyond 8218-8286 should be watched for next decisive move confirmations.

Correction continuation despite 0.56% Positive closing on 29-12-2014

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(30-12-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Dec-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8260-8279(recent resistance) 
2- Whole day actual trading between 8240-8279

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed 0.56% up today but good selling between 8260-8279 therefore strong indications of slipping below day's actual trading lowest(8240). Selling between 8218-8286 on 24-12-2014 and selling seen within this range today also therefore strong indications of corrective Wave'C' continuation towards and below 7961.35 after Wave'B' termination at 8364 on 23-12-2014.