Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-09-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Sep-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5908-5938
2- Support between 5854-5890
3- Whole day actual trading between 5854-5938

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Correction continuation after 16 sessions 1023 points strong rally with following immediate supports and resistances:-

1- Strong supports between 5779-5896 
2- Resistances between 5908-5938
3- Resistances between 6095-6140

As lower levels strong supports and higher levels selling as well as complete selling was required for decisive down moves and deeper correction therefore following topic with detailed technical analysis was posted on 22-09-2013:-

Range Bound Market between 5779-6140 for Next Trend Preparation

correction begun after 5 Waves formations therefore correction of whole 1023 points rally became due and being seen. As Bull markets complete its correction within sideways moves also therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5779-6140 should be watched because lower levels strong supports within this range.   

Although good selling at higher levels but lower levels supports also seen today and strong supports below today trading range also therefore more selling is required for for deeper correction below 5779. Firstly sustaining beyond 5779-5938 should be watched for next trend confirmations and until Nifty is sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5748) till then Long Term up trend will remain intact.

Pre-closing Outlook(24-09-2013)

Selling patterns formations but some supports also seen at lower levels today therefore sustaining beyond today trading range should be watched tomorrow because complete selling is required for decisive down moves.

Mid-session Outlook(24-09-2013)

Selling patterns formations seen today but complete selling is required for decisive down moves. 

Pre-open Outlook(24-09-2013)

Most Asian markets are flat to weak today after Red closing of US markets yesterday therefore sentiment is weak and negative opening will be seen in Indian markets. Although correction is on and some down moves are possible after weaker Global cues today but good consolidation in previous weeks between 5779-5888 and consolidation patterns formations seen between 5871-5896 yesterday also therefore sustaining beyond 5779-5896 should be watched for deeper correction or correction completion within sideways market.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-09-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Sep-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Higher levels selling.
2- Consolidation between 5871-5896
3- Whole day actual trading between 5871-5989

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly higher levels some selling but consolidation also seen in last 3 hours therefore some up moves can not be ruled out between 5900-6050 because consolidation seen just above strong support range(5779-5888). 

As correction is on therefore firstly sustaining above 5900 should also be watched for next up moves confirmations.

Pre-closing Outlook(23-09-2013)

Although higher levels selling today and previous 2 sessions but strong supports also at lower levels between 5779-5888 and some consolidation also seen at lower levels today therefore some up moves can not be ruled out between 5900-6050. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(23-09-2013)

Correction continuation after higher levels selling today and previous 2 sessions but strong supports also at lower levels between 5779-5888,now trading within this range and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for deeper/sideways correction.

Mid-session Outlook(23-09-2013)

As on going rally completed 5 waves in its up moves therefore its correction was due and going on today. Nifty traded more than 1.5% down with lowest formation at 5907.35 which is just above 7 Sessions strong consolidation range(5779-5888) and until complete selling will not develop till then 5779 will not be broken down,sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched for sideways or deeper correction.

Range Bound Market between 5779-6140 for Next Trend Preparation

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Sep 23 to Sep 27,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart between 22-09-2003 and 20-09-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 1300.25 on 22-09-2003.
2- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
3- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008
4- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
5- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
6- 200-Day DMA- Today at 5842 
7- 200-Day EMA- Today at 5745
8- Hovering aroung Long Term Trend deciding 200-Day DMA and EMA

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All trends are up and last 3 sessions closing 200-Day DMA and EMA but hovering around it for the last 4 years with trading between 4531-6338. 

Nifty-Weekly Chart (20-Sep-2013):-

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 Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly chart

1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
2- Impulsive  Wave-1 Completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
4- Impulsive  Wave-3 Completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013.
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013.
6- Impulsive  Wave-5 continuation and its recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
7- 200-Week DMA- Today at 5459 
8- 200-Week EMA- Today at 5333

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

Nifty got supports many times near about 200-Week DMA and EMA in last 3 years and Strong Rally seen after getting support at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 as well as impulsive  Wave-5 continuation but confirmation is required yet through sustaining above the top of Wave-3(6229.45).

Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)('ABC'Correction beginning after 17 Months Rally completion)
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)('ABC'Correction completion after 3 Months correction completion)
10- Strong Rally continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Strong Rally continuation after 'ABC'Correction completion and recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.

Waves structure of on going 16 sessions strong Rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(5580.95 on 03-09-2013) 
3- Wave-2(5318.90 on 04-09-2013) 
4- Wave-3(5957.25 on 16-09-2013) 
5- Wave-4(5798.15 on 16-09-2013) 
6- Wave-5 continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after FOMC decision of not rushing to taper Bond buying programme and recent top formation at 6142.50 but sharp fall also seen on next day after RBI Credit policy but Wave-5 continuation will be understood until its completion confirmation will not be seen. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 10 to Sep 20,2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 9 Sessions intraday charts

1- 7 Sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888
2- Selling between 6095-6140 
3- 9 Sessions actual trading between 5779-6140 

Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although sharp fall seen on 20-09-2013 after some selling at higher levels in last 2 sessions but until complete selling will not develop till then Nifty will not slip below 5779 because huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after 7 sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888.

3 Lower Tops and Resistances

Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
2- 2nd Top formation at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
3- 3rd Top formation at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013
4- Recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

3 Lower tops formations in last 5 years and these levels are psychological resistances also therefore more consolidation is must for new all time high formations because higher levels selling seen just below above mentioned 3 tops in last 2 sessions.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Last 16 sessions strong rally reversed whole sentiment from most Bearish to most Bullish and turned all trends up. As on going rally completed 5 waves in its 1023 points up moves therefore its correction is required and it would have begun also after last 2 sessions selling and slipping from higher levels.

As rally started after completion of 'ABC' correction of Wave-4 therefore up moves above Wave-3 top(6229.45) will be expected but more condolidation is also required because resistances of 3 Lower tops formations in last 6 years and higher levels selling also in last 2 sessions as well as correction of last 16 sessions 1023 points rally is also due.

Higher levels selling between 6095-6140 in last 2 sessions but 7 sessions good consolidation between 5779-5888 therefore Nifty will not slip below it easily and until Nifty is above 5779 till then on going rally is very much safe. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 9 Sessions actual trading range(5779-6140) and it should be kept in mind that Bull markets complete its correction in range bound markets also therefore sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week for correction completion/continuation. It is confirm that until complete selling patterns will not develop on Daily charts till then deeper correction will not be seen and Nifty will remain above 5779.

Nifty is trading between 4531-6338 for the last 4 years and finally sustaining beyond this range will form new cycle as was formed in late 2003 after break out of previous 11 years range. As Wave-5 is on therefore rally above 6338 can not be ruled out in the coming weeks/months but complete consolidation is must because multiple resistances upto 6338.

Nifty will prepare for next trend between 5779-6140 in the coming week/weeks and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next trend confirmations.

As health problems in family and out of station therefore Blog could not be updated after 13-09-2013. All is well now but Blog updating will restart on 22-09-2013 and not being possible today as was promised yesterday. Again sorry for inconvenience.

Blog will be updated tomorrow,sorry for inconvenience.

As busy therefore next Outlook will be updated within 1/2 days

Post-open Outlook(13-09-2013)

Although all the Asian were sufficiently down and SGX Nifty was also trading more than 60 points weak but Indian markets were not prepared for any side decisive moves therefore Nifty recovered strongly after formation of lowest at 5822.90. Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in previous Outlook and should be kept in mind:- 

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves near about 5917-5924 and sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for Long Term Trend confirmations.

Let market prepare for next trend within mentioned range then will be updated according to intraday charts formations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(13-09-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Sep-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Falling channel with both minor selling and some supports also.
2- Lower levels supports in last hour between 5917-5935 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5917-5904 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told yesterday in Emergence of Correction Possibility:-

1- more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.
2- possibility of firstly trading between today trading range(5835-5924)

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and almost whole day down moves were seen as well as Nifty slipped below 5935,Nifty traded most time and closed within already mentioned range(5835-5924) also. 

Although more than 5 hours continuous down moves immediately after opening today but without as such selling patterns formations and it was updated also in both previous Outlooks resultant lower levels support in last hour and Nifty recovered more than 45 points.

Intermediate and Short Term Trends are up and Long Term Trend will be up after the confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5734). As last 2 sessions trading between 5917-5924 with both selling and buying therefore firstly one sided positions formations are required for next decisive trend. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves near about 5917-5924 and sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for Long Term Trend confirmations.

Pre-closing Outlook(12-09-2013)

Although possibility of down moves below 5835 was told yesterday and now Nifty is trading below it also after formation of lowest at 5815.80 but sustaining below 5835 should be firstly watched tomorrow for decisive down moves confirmations because as such selling patterns not seen today.

Mid-session Outlook(12-09-2013)

Although most time negative zone trading today but as such selling not seen and some supports also seen at lower levels therefore mixed patterns formations today and yesterday between 5835-5924,follow up moves in the coming hours and finally valid break out of 5835-5924 will be firstly watched now for next immediate moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(12-09-2013)

Nifty started to trade in Red immediately after opening today but we told following lines for down moves yesterday in both previous Outlooks:- 

1- In Pre-closing Report(11-09-2013):-As more selling formations today therefore correction beginning possibilities turned alive today.
2- In Energence of Correction Possibility:- As more selling seen at higher levels today therefore more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.

Although possibility of down moves below 5835 was also told but follow up selling is also must therefore firstly Follow up technical positions formations in the coming hours and finally valid break out of 5835-5924 should be watched in the coming sessions for next immediate moves confirmations because minor support also seen at lower levels today.

Emergence of Correction Possibility

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-09-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Sep-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5878-5924
2- Support between 5835-5860 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5835-5924

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Range bound trading today between 5835-5924 with higher levels selling and lower levels supports therefore possibility of firstly trading between today trading range(5835-5924) but more selling seen therefore emergence of correction beginning possibilities turned alive today. As selling is not sufficient today therefore more selling is required because complete selling is required for decisive down moves after 805 points strong rally in last 10 sessions. 

Follow up moves near about today trading range and finally sustaining beyond 5835-5924 should be watched in the coming sessions for next immediate moves confirmations. As more selling seen at higher levels today therefore more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.

Pre-closing Report(11-09-2013)

Range bound trading today between 5836-5924 with selling indications but not sufficient and more selling is required because complete selling is required for decisive down moves after 794 points strong rally in 9 sessions. Nifty is trading near the higher levels of today and some supports also seen at higher levels therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5836-5924 should be watched for next immediate moves confirmations. As more selling formations today therefore correction beginning possibilities turned alive today.

Mid-session Outlook(11-09-2013)

Nifty forcefully crossed Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5731) yesterday and most time negative zone trading today after 594 points rally in 5 sessions therefore today trading will be understood only technical correction. As indicators are overbought therefore 1/2 sessions intraday correction is very much possible and being seen today but It is confirm that complete selling patterns are required for sustaining below 5731.

Nifty traded 3%(5902) above of 200 Day EMA(today at 5731) which is confirmation level of Long Term Trend turning up and firstly sustaining beyond 5902 should be watched in the coming 2/3 sessions for:-

1- 100% Confirmaton of all trends turning up above 5902 or
2- 1st Indication of again decisive down moves below 5902 but confirmation will be after sustaining below 5731.

As busy today therefore only Mid-session Outlooks will be updated today