Firm Grip of Bears on Indian Markets

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5274.25 on 27-08-2013

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Indian markets are in deep Bear phase today but When Long Term Trend was up and previous closing of Nifty was at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 then following line was told on 29-07-2013 in Last hope for Bulls at 5792:-

As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011

As was told same happened and 50% retracement of rally between 4531.15-6229.45 has been completed,Retracement levels of mentioned range are being repeated which were updated on 31-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(31-07-2013):-

13.0%-6008
23.6%-5828
27.0%-5770
38.2%-5580
50.0%-5380
61.8%-5179
70.7%-5028
76.4%-4931
78.6%-4894
88.6%-4724 

Above lines were reminded many times in previous Outlooks and  following lines with supports levels upto 4779 were updated on 19-08-2013 in Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months because deeper correction was expected:-

As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-

1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880

Whatsoever crashing like deeper down moves were seen yesterday those were already updated well in advance in all the Outlooks of previous sessions. Support was seen near and between  above mentioned 1st support range(5210-5270) in last 5 sessions and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched today for bounce back after yesterday sharp down or immediate more down moves below 5210. 

As Indian Markets are in the firm Grip of Bears and now Bearish market is very much on as well as its continuation is very much expected in the coming sessions,months and may be years also therefore following lines are being repeated which were told on 19-08-2013 in Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months:-

It is confirm that Indian markets are in Bear phase and Economic Outlook is also gloomy in the next months as well as political uncertainty can not be ruled out after next General Elections therefore Indian markets will remain in the grip of Bears. Pull Back and Relief rallies will be seen after regular intervals after intraday or 1/2 day consolidations but until complete consolidation will not complete on Intraday,EOD and Weekly charts till then Long Term Trend will not reverse.

Pre-open Outlook(28-08-2013)

Sentiment is most depressed after after yesterday sharp fall and deep Red all Global markets therefore gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets and testing of above mentioned 2nd  support range(5075-5140) can not be ruled out in the coming sessions.

Which Website predicted so clearly Bearish Markets in whole India except 

enjoydailyprofits.blogspot.in

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(27-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 23 & Aug 26,2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves in Bearish Rising channel on 23-08-2013.
2- Selling between 5490-5528 on 26-08-2013
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5378-5528 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were trading with good gains today morning therefore firstly gap up opening and most of the time positive zone trading but higher levels selling today after Bearish Rising channel formation on 23-08-2013 therefore finally down moves are expected in the coming sessions after completion of 3 sessions Pull Back Rally.  

As busy today therefore next Outlook will be updated tomorrow

Mid-session Outlook-2(23-08-2013)

As good recovery in Indian Rupee from intraday lower levels therefore Indian markets are up but slow up moves and with Bearish Rising channel since opening today therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above next resistances range(5450-5475).

Mid-session Outlook(23-08-2013)

Resistances above today higher levels between (5450-5475) and Nifty is preparing for next moves just below it between 5380-5452 with intraday volatility firstly and emergence of selling signals also.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations.
2- Sharp up moves beginning after strong opening of European markets at 12:30 PM.
3- Follow up Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations between 01:00-02:00 PM.
4- Last 1 hour up moves in Bearish Rising Wedge formations.
5- Whole day trading between 5255-5418

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day up moves after lower levels consolidations and some more consolidation was also seen in mid session but sharp up moves started after strong opening of European markets at 12:30 PM and sudden 50 points jump of Dow'Jones Futures after 12:15 PM.  Although follow up Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations also seen between 01:00-02:00 PM but today up moves were on the back of strong Global cues and last 1 hour up moves were in Bearish Rising Wedge formations therefore follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above today highs and next resistance range(5450-5475). 

All trends are down and Indian markets are in confirm Bear phase,today like Bounce Back may be seen any day because Short Term Indicators are oversold and Volatility remains high in Bear markets. Until complete consolidation will not be seen minimum on Daily charts till then any decisive up move will not be seen. Follow up selling and sustaining below next resistance range(5450-5475) will mean fresh down moves to test next support range(5210-5270) or below it also.

Pre-Closing Outlook(22-08-2013)

Firstly lower levels and after that follow up consolidations in last 2 hours therefore continuation of Pull Back Rally. Next resistances are between 5450-5475 and sustaining beyond it will be watched in the coming sessions for the fate of today started rally.

Mid-session Outlook(22-08-2013)

Following support range was updated on 19-08-2013 in "Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months":- 

1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880

Nifty got supports between 1st support range after weak opening and recovered after lowest formation at 5254.05. As Short Term Indications are oversold and some consolidation between 5263-5310 therefore Bounce back is being seen and next resistances are between 5450-5475.

Expected that Nifty will remain range bound between 5263-5475 in the coming sessions and will prepare for next Short/Intermediate Term Trend within this range.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(22-08-2013)

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(21-Aug-2013):-

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Averages(EMA-8,21,55,200)- Averages are as follows:

8 Day EMA is at- 5492
21 Day EMA is at- 5637
55 Day EMA is at- 5761
200 Day EMA is at- 5764
2- Bollinger Band- Lower Band moving down with the slipping of Nifty and indicating some up moves.
3- Slow Stochastic- Entering into oversold zone.
4- MACD- MACD line is below Average line and gap widen between both lines near oversold line
5- ROC- Entering into oversold zone.
6- RSI- Entering into oversold zone.

1. Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis 

Nifty is well below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA and all the short term averages are below longer term averages as well. Nifty is below all the Averages therefore complete Bearish market confirmations.

Although most indicators are entering into oversold zone but not deeply oversold and positive divergence also not seen yet therefore some more down moves are still left before trend reversal and the beginning of any decisive up move.

Mid-session Outlook(21-08-2013)

Although Nifty was more than 100 points up within 1st minute today but we were not Bullish and cautioned in previous Outlook as well as gave confirmation level also. Following lines were told today at 09:42:00 AM in Post-open Outlook:-

1- As Bearish markets remain highly volatile therefore today up moves may be a part of volatility also.
2- 11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation and its neckline(at 5477.20) was broken down on 19-08-2013,Nifty is hovering it around at this moment and firstly sustaining beyond it should be watched for next Long Term Trend confirmations.

Following line was told yesterday in Mid-session Outlook-3 and Pre-Closing Outlook:-

1- Expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360.

Today lowest is at 5361.10 after loosing more than 140 points today and steep fall will be seen after valid break down below 5360/5306 as well as its high possibility.

Post-open Outlook(21-08-2013)

Although mixed intraday patterns in last 2 Sessions between 5306-5465 but whole day good consolidation was seen on 19-08-2013 therefore up moves seen today. As Bearish markets remain highly volatile therefore today up moves may be a part of volatility also.

11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation and its neckline(at 5477.20) was broken down on 19-08-2013,Nifty is hovering it around at this moment and firstly sustaining beyond it should be watched for next Long Term Trend confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-08-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 19 & Aug 20,2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 19-08-2013
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400 on 19-08-2013
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 20-08-2013
4- Selling between 5405-5415 on 20-08-2013
5- More than 8 hours trading between 5360-5420 with mixed patterns in last 2 sessions.
6- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5306-5465 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As most depressing news flow(Indian Rupee weakening by 2% and weaker Global markets) therefore Nifty slipped more than 100 points within first 2 minutes but strong recovery from lower levels also because whole day good consolidation yesterday. More than 2 hours consolidation between 5360-5400 yesterday and more than 5 hours trading within this range today with higher levels selling. 

It is clear from last 2 sessions trading that both consolidation and selling seen between 5306-5465 and more than 8 hours trading between 5360-5420 with mixed intraday patterns therefore Indian markets are not mature for any side decisive moves and will firstly prepare for next moves between 5360-5420 and sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for next Short Term Trend confirmations.

Pre-Closing Outlook(20-08-2013)

As volatility remain high in Bear markets therefore trading positions have to be understood after every decisive intraday move because small traders stop losses trigger during such volatility. 

Consolidation range of 5360-5400 was updated yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013) and last 5 hours trading within this range with higher levels selling  but lower levels consolidations also seen today 

As higher levels selling patterns today and all trends are down therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360 but volatile day today and technical positions reverses in such volatility also therefore view is cautious and finally next Short Term moves confirmation is must through sustaining beyond 5360-5400 because good consolidation was also seen between this range yesterday.

Mid-session Outlook-3(20-08-2013)

High volatility is a nature of Bearish markets and it is being seen today. As all the Asian and European markets are 0.75% to 2.6% weak therefore sentiment turned depressed and selling formations also developed at higher levels today. Expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(20-08-2013)

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013

1- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400 
2- some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow

As Indian Rupee weakened more than 2% between yesterday closing and today opening of Indian markets therefore Nifty crashed more than 100 points within first 2 minutes today but more than 100 points recovery from lower levels and last more than 3 hours trading within above mentioned Consolidation range(5360-5400)

Some up moves possibility was told yesterday and it was seen also today through more than 100 points lower levels recovery and now Nifty is preparing for next moves between 5360-5400. View is finally Bearish and high volatility is a nature of Bearish markets therefore lower levels recovery seen today and more Short Term up moves can not be ruled out also because no selling signals seen yet. 

Follow up moves within 5360-5400 and finally sustaining it beyond will be next Short Term Trend confirmations and should be firstly watched now.

Mid-session Outlook(20-08-2013)

As lower levels consolidations between 6360-5400 yesterday therefore good recovery from lower levels and trading between this range despite most depressing sentiment today morning due to crashing of Indian Rupee in last 2 hours. 

Although view is Bearish but Short Term Indicators are oversold therefore sustaining beyond 6360-5400 should be firstly watched for next very Short Term Trend confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(20-08-2013)

Indian Rupee further weakened by more than 1% today therefore sentiment turned mosted depressed because Indian Rupee traded more than more than 1% weak after the closing of Indian markets yesterday also and resultant huge gap down opening again today. Following line was told in Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months:- 

Most Bearish huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation developed in last 11 Months and its neckline is at 5477.20 which is between next gap support(5447-5526). As all trends are down and such huge Bearish pattern neckline broken down also therefore high possibility of sustaining below gap support lowest(5447). 

As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-

1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880

Pre-open Outlook(20-08-2013)

Although Indian markets showed consolidations patterns formations yesterday but Indian Rupee weakened more than 1% after the closing of Indian markets yesterday therefore its reaction will be seen in the beginning of today market through weak opening.  

Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves near about yesterday trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-

1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465.
2-Correction continuation after sustaining below 5360 and its possibility is high because all trends are down as well as sentiment is weak today morning due to Indian Rupee trading at all time low and US market weak closing yesterday.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Aug-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400 
3- Whole day actual trading between 5360-5465

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Although Gap down opening was not seen but almost 45 points down moves within first 5 seconds. As whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and consolidation seen at lower levels also therefor some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow after 281 points sharp down moves in last 2 sessions.

Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves between today trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-

1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465
2-Short Term down trend after sustaining below 5360

Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Aug 19 to Aug 23,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
10 Pull Back Rally termination and bottom formation at 5496.05 on 16-08-2013.

Waves Structure of 'ABC' Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
2- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
4- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
5- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
6- Pull Back Rally top formation at 5754.55 on 14-08-2013. 
10 Pull Back Rally termination and bottom formation at 5496.05 on 16-08-2013.

11 Months huge most Bearish Head and Shoulders patterns formation from 14-09-2012 to 16-08-2013

Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation
2- Neckline at 5477.20
3- Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5776)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 13 to Aug 16,2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 13 and 14 Aug 2013.
2- 2 Days up moves reversed in 1 hour on 14 Aug 2013 
3- Follow up selling after 1st hour huge fall
3- 3 Sessions actual trading between. 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although strong up moves on 13 and 14 Aug 2013 but in Bearish Rising Channel therefore we told:-

1- In Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-08-2013):- 

Nifty will not be able to cross next resistance range(5740-5765) and fresh down moves will begin after development of follow up selling in the coming sessions.

2-In Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-08-2013):-

1- Bearish Rising Channels therefore high possibility of today trading range breaking down
2-once sustaining below today lowest(5690) will mean termination of on going Pull Back Rally 

As 2 sessions up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore Nifty whole 2 sessions up moves become zero in first hour and Nifty formed 5578 at 10:11 AM on 16-08-2013. As was told in both above mentioned previous sessions same happened and down moves begun after development of follow up selling as well as Nifty reversed from 5754 and could not cross 5765.

Follow up selling was also seen after 1st hour sharp fall on 16-08-2013 therefore intraday charts of last Friday are suggesting more down moves in the coming sessions.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

All trends turned down after huge fall on 16-08-2013 and Indian markets are in Bear phase. Correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was told many times in previous Weekly Analysis and it is being continuously seen. just click Weekly Outlook for:-

1- Retracement levels whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45
2- Detailed analysis of Waves structure.

Most Bearish huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation developed in last 11 Months and its neckline is at 5477.20 which is between next gap support(5447-5526). As all trends are down and such huge Bearish pattern neckline broken down also therefore high possibility of sustaining below gap support lowest(5447). 

As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-

1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880

It is confirm that Indian markets are in Bear phase and Economic Outlook is also gloomy in the next months as well as political uncertainty can not be ruled out after next General Elections therefore Indian markets will remain in the grip of Bears. Pull Back and Relief rallies will be seen after regular intervals after intraday or 1/2 day consolidations but until complete consolidation will not complete on Intraday,EOD and Weekly charts till then Long Term Trend will not reverse.

Bear Market Trading Strategy

Mouth water lower levels of good stocks nowadays but it should also be kept in mind that Stocks levels remain different in Bull and Bear markets and present levels are Bear markets rates and may be more down also after Bear markets deepening. "Buying in falling markets is like catching Falling Knief resultant one's hand full of one's own Blood" therefore just wait before any investment and get confirmation of bottom formation as well as consolidation completion on Daily charts. Firstly buying should be done for Short or Intermediate Term and should be converted into Long Term only after stock sustaining above Long Term decider 200 Day EMA otherwise must be squared up.  

Bounce Back or Pull Back Rallies may be seen any day after lower levels intraday supports and 2/3 hours consolidations because Bear Markets remains highly volatile therefore both side(up and down) trading opportunities will be seen in good amount.

Analysis of "last 11 months huge Bearish Pattern" with Detailed Weekly Analysis of EOD/Intraday Charts will be updated during trading hours today

As follow up selling was also seen after 1st hour sharp fall on 16-08-2013 therefore intraday charts of last Friday are suggesting more down moves in the coming sessions.