Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(30-07-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 26 & Jul 29,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- 2 Sessions Down moves within Bullish Falling Channel.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5827-5944 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Long Term Trend is up, Intermediate and Short Term Trends turned down after the beginning on going Wave-C correction. Last 2 sessions continuous down moves but within Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves or intraday volatility can not be ruled out after any positive announcement in RBI Credit policy tomorrow and/or FOMC meet after 30-31 July 2013.

As corrective Wave-C continuation and finally down moves are expected therefore volatility for the cutting of both sides stop losses is expected in the coming sessions,as it was seen today and both new intraday high and new intraday low formation  was seen after 12:30 PM in Nifty Jul Fut.

Pre-Closing Outlook(29-07-2013)

Although down moves after new intraday high formations but new intraday low formation also today therefore trading patterns are suggesting only volatility and decisive moves will be expected after Credit policy but high volatility before and after its announcements may be seen again tomorrow. As today all down moves are showing Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore some up moves,Bounce Back or minor Pull Back Rally can not be ruled out but corrective Wave-C continuation and finally down moves are expected.

Mid-session Outlook-2(29-07-2013)

Nifty July Fut traded at 5923 at 12:36 PM today but when it was trading at 5897 at 11:53 AM then following line was told today in previous Outlook:-

Indian markets are more than .50% down but again down moves are within Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of Bounce back possibility.

As lower levels supports today and same formations seen last Friday also therefore some Up moves and Pull Back rally will be considered if Nifty sustains above 5927. It should be kept in mind that corrective Wave-C continuation and once sustaining below today lowest will mean correction continuation with deeper  correction possibility.

Mid-session Outlook(29-07-2013)

Although US markets closed flat last Friday but its Futures are weak since morning today and all the Asian markets are also sufficiently negative today morning therefore sentiment is weak and Indian markets are more than .50% down but again down moves are within Bullish Falling Channel therefore emergence of Bounce back possibility.

Last hope for Bulls at 5792

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 29 to Aug 02,2013)

 Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation

Waves structure of ongoing 'ABC'correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 top formation at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 and corrective Wave-A continuation
2- Wave-v of Wave-A completion(5566.25 on 24-06-2013) 
3- Wave-v of Wave-B completion(6093.35 on 23-07-2013) 
4- Wave-c continuation with bottom formation at 5869.50 on 26-07-2013

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves with Bullish Falling Channel in first 4 hours.
2- Last 2 hours consolidations between 5870-5885
3- Whole day actual trading between 5870-5944

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5792 and previous closing is well above it at 5886.20 on 26-07-2013 therefore Long Term Trend is up but corrective Wave-C continuation and Short Term Trend is down as well as Intermediate Term Trend will be down after closing below 5888. As 'ABC' correction begun after 5 waves of Bullish market completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 therefore correction of whole up moves will be seen which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011. Now almost confirmation of corrective Wave-C continuation after completion of Wave-A and B and its target will be below the bottom of Wave-A(5566.25).

Next resistances are as follows:- 

1-5957-5990 
2-6040-6093
3-6094-6130

Next supports are as follows:- 

1-5870--5885
2-5792(Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA)
3-5787-5810(Crucial support range)
4-5762-5781
5-5566-5595

As first 4 hours down moves with Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore Bounce back seen last Friday and next decisive down moves confirmation will be after sustaining below 5870 because consolidations also seen above it in last 2 hours. As corrective Wave-C continuation therefore down moves are expected after development of follow up selling and finally sustaining beyond 5792(Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA) should be watched in the coming week for the confirmations of deeper correction below it and it is last hope for Bulls also.

Just click following topic links previous weekly analysis also for detailed anylysis:-

1-Posted on 22-07-2013:-Indian markets on the verge of correction
2-Posted on 15-07-2013:-Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jul 15 to Jul 19,2013)

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-07-2013)

Nifty traded at 5919 at 2:36 PM today but when:-

1- Nifty was trading near the lowest of today at 5876 at 2:09 PM then following line was told today in Mid-session Outlook-3:-

next decisive down moves after Bounce back/Minor Pull Back Rally should be kept in mind.

2- Nifty was trading .45% down at 1:37 PM then following line was told today in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

a Bounce back possibility should be kept in mind.

As supports seen at lower levels today therefore next decisive down moves confirmation will be after sustaining below today lowest(5870)

Mid-session Outlook-3(26-07-2013)

Although view is Bearish but today whole day down moves with Bullish Falling Channel formation therefore next decisive down moves after Bounce back/Minor Pull Back Rally should be kept in mind.

Mid-session Outlook-2(26-07-2013)

Although Nifty is more than .45% down but Today down moves are showing consolidation indications and Bullish Falling Channel formation also seen therefore a Bounce back possibility should be kept in mind.

Mid-session Outlook(26-07-2013)

Although some up moves after opening but loosing all intraday gains also after higher levels minor selling but some supports seen at lower levels and very short Term indicators are Oversold therefore today trading range(5898-5944) valid break out should be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(26-07-2013)

As US markets recovered from lower levels yesterday and Indian Rupee strengthened today morning therefore positive opening and relief rally(minor up moves) is being seen.

Expected that finally down moves will be seen after fresh selling in the coming sessions.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-07-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly more than 4 hours selling between 5957-5990 
2- Whole day actual trading between 5903-5990 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly more than 4 hours selling and after that continuous down moves as well as closing near the lower levels of the day therefore decisive down moves seen yesterday. 

As very short term trend has been oversold therefore minor up moves possibility can not be ruled out but almost confirmation of corrective Wave-C and expected that finally down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-07-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1-Selling between 6020-6045 
2- Sharp fall
3- Last 5 hours trading between 5961-5999
4- Support between 5964-5975 in last 5 hours
5- Selling between 5981-5996 in last 5 hours
6- Whole day actual trading between 5964-6045

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As up moves despite selling patterns formations in previous 3 sessions and on the back of only global positive news flows therefore only Bearish views were updated and resultant sharp fall seen yesterday. High possibility of corrective Wave-C beginning and following supports should be watched for its confirmations and deep down moves possibilities:-

1- 5911
2- 5761

Mid-session Outlook(24-07-2013)

Whatsoever is being happened in Indian markets today,all that are being continuously daily told for the last 4/5 days therefore quiet today and just telling for going through previous Outlooks and and prepare yourself for coming sessions trading.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-07-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6083-6093 
2- Whole day actual trading between 6065-6093

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

28 Points sideways trading after strong Asian cues lead gap up opening but selling patterns formations also seen at higher levels therefore same bearish view which has already been updated in previous Outlooks and expected that Indian markets will not sustain at higher levels and finally down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(23-07-2013)

Although Indices traded most time with more than .70% gains and also trading more than .70% up at this moment but selling patterns formation seen also today therefore same bearish view which has already been updated in previous Outlooks.

Post-open Outlook(23-07-2013)

Although slipping from higher levels after good selling in last 2 sessions but most Asian markets are strong today after good recovery in US Futures therefore continuous up moves are being seen in Indian markets also.

As today up moves are global sentiment generated but selling in previous 2 sessions therefore expected that Indian markets will not sustain at higher levels and down moves will be seen within next 2/3 sessions after fresh follow up selling and Short covering.

Pre-open Outlook(23-07-2013)

Most Asian markets are trading strong therefore sentiment is good today morning and positive opening will be seen in Indian markets but good selling seen at higher levels in last 2 sessions and expected that finally down moves will be seen after follow up selling in the coming sessions.

Emergence of Corrective Wave-C beginning Possibility

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(23-07-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6048-6064 
2- Whole day actual trading between 6018-6064 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following resistance ranges were updated on 15-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-07-2013):- 

1- 6040-6061
2- 6072-6130(Strong resistance range)

Nifty hovered around above mentioned 1st resistance range in last 2 sessions and traded most time between 6018-6064 with follow up selling between following ranges:-

1- 6049-6062(19-07-2013)
2- 6048-6064(22-07-2013)

1st resistance range strengthened after follow up selling in last 2 sessions and emergence of corrective Wave-C beginning possibility as well as decisive down moves are expected in the coming sessions.

Pre-Closing Outlook(22-07-2013)

When Indian markets were trading near the higher levels of today then following line was told in previous Outlook at 01:26 PM:-

"As without force slow up moves therefore again emergence of correction beginning signals after last Friday higher levels selling"

Market slipped from higher levels,last 5 hours up moves neutralised and Nifty is trading near the lower levels of today after good selling at higher levels. 

Correction beginning possibility increased today and confirmations will be after sustaining below 5911.

Mid-session Outlook(22-07-2013)

As without force slow up moves therefore again emergence of correction beginning signals after last Friday higher levels selling and sustaining beyond 5911-6072 should be firstly for next trend confirmations.

Indian markets on the verge of correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

 (Jul 22 to Jul 26,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jul-2013)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis 

Averages(EMA-8,21,55,200)- Averages are as follows:

8 Day EMA is at- 5973
21 Day EMA is at- 5904
55 Day EMA is at- 5881
200 Day EMA is at- 5783

Indicators Analysis:

1- Bollinger Band- Nifty is trading just below Upper Band and indicating correction beginning possibility.
2- Slow Stochastic- in Overbought zone and indicating correction beginning possibility.
3- MACD- MACD is above average line and moving upward in positive zone but 27.2 points divergence in both lines therefore showing an indication of correction also.
4- ROC and RSI- Both lines are just below overbought zone but showing negative divergence therefore indicating correction beginning possibility.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6049-6062 
2- Whole day actual trading between 6022-6062

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day sideways 40 points trading between 40 points with higher levels good selling and down moves indications from intraday charts.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Following line was told on 15-07-2013 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jul 15 to Jul 19,2013)

firstly trading patterns between mentioned crucial retracement levels(5975-6072) should be watched in the coming sessions.

Following resistance ranges were updated on 19-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-07-2013) 

Next resistances are as follows:- 

1- 6040-6061
2- 6072-6130(Strong resistance range) 

Just click above given both topic links also and understand Long Term to Short Term Waves structure and crucial levels.

Nifty slipped below 5975 after negative news from RBI and could not sustain below 5975 but no up moves above 6072 also as well as traded whole previous week within 5911-6067 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore next trend decider range is finalised between 5911-6072 and should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations in the coming week.

All trends are up but indicators are showing that Indian markets are on the verge of correction beginning. Although complete selling patterns are required on intraday and Daily charts for the beginning of correction and decisive down moves but also expected that Indian markets will finally move down after follow up selling in next week. 

As selling between 6049-6062 last Friday therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 6062 till then next up trend will not be considered and sustaining beyond 5911-6072 should be firstly for next trend confirmations in next week.