Pre-Closing Outlook(22-07-2013)

When Indian markets were trading near the higher levels of today then following line was told in previous Outlook at 01:26 PM:-

"As without force slow up moves therefore again emergence of correction beginning signals after last Friday higher levels selling"

Market slipped from higher levels,last 5 hours up moves neutralised and Nifty is trading near the lower levels of today after good selling at higher levels. 

Correction beginning possibility increased today and confirmations will be after sustaining below 5911.

Mid-session Outlook(22-07-2013)

As without force slow up moves therefore again emergence of correction beginning signals after last Friday higher levels selling and sustaining beyond 5911-6072 should be firstly for next trend confirmations.

Indian markets on the verge of correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

 (Jul 22 to Jul 26,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jul-2013)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis 

Averages(EMA-8,21,55,200)- Averages are as follows:

8 Day EMA is at- 5973
21 Day EMA is at- 5904
55 Day EMA is at- 5881
200 Day EMA is at- 5783

Indicators Analysis:

1- Bollinger Band- Nifty is trading just below Upper Band and indicating correction beginning possibility.
2- Slow Stochastic- in Overbought zone and indicating correction beginning possibility.
3- MACD- MACD is above average line and moving upward in positive zone but 27.2 points divergence in both lines therefore showing an indication of correction also.
4- ROC and RSI- Both lines are just below overbought zone but showing negative divergence therefore indicating correction beginning possibility.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6049-6062 
2- Whole day actual trading between 6022-6062

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Whole day sideways 40 points trading between 40 points with higher levels good selling and down moves indications from intraday charts.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Following line was told on 15-07-2013 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Jul 15 to Jul 19,2013)

firstly trading patterns between mentioned crucial retracement levels(5975-6072) should be watched in the coming sessions.

Following resistance ranges were updated on 19-07-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-07-2013) 

Next resistances are as follows:- 

1- 6040-6061
2- 6072-6130(Strong resistance range) 

Just click above given both topic links also and understand Long Term to Short Term Waves structure and crucial levels.

Nifty slipped below 5975 after negative news from RBI and could not sustain below 5975 but no up moves above 6072 also as well as traded whole previous week within 5911-6067 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling therefore next trend decider range is finalised between 5911-6072 and should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations in the coming week.

All trends are up but indicators are showing that Indian markets are on the verge of correction beginning. Although complete selling patterns are required on intraday and Daily charts for the beginning of correction and decisive down moves but also expected that Indian markets will finally move down after follow up selling in next week. 

As selling between 6049-6062 last Friday therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 6062 till then next up trend will not be considered and sustaining beyond 5911-6072 should be firstly for next trend confirmations in next week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-Jul-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-Jul-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-Jul-2013 3396.35 3144.09 252.26

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-Jul-2013 1364.17 1593.27 -229.1

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(19-Jul-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.34
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.22
Nifty P/E Ratio(19-Jul-2013): 18.30
Nifty P/B Ratio(19-Jul-2013):  3.09
Dividend Yield (19-Jul-2013):  1.37

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,015
BSE Declines : 1,325
NSE Advances :   519
NSE Declines :   822

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Jul)- -111,900(-8.18%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Jul)- -1,540,650(-25.00%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Jul)- -141,400(-5.60%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Jul)- -841,600(%-9.27)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Jul)- -544,600(-15.30%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Jul)-  1,287,200(14.95%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Jul)- -178,800(-2.92%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Jul)-  502,850(8.06%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(Jul)- -62,750(-1.09%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(Jul)-  272,650(9.09%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,149.85(21.44 Points & 0.11%)
Nifty- closed at 6,029.20(-8.85 Points & -0.15%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,408.10(-60.20 Points & -0.81%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 2,908.45(-17.15 Points & -0.59%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-07-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6102
R2 6084
R1 6056
Avg 6038
S1 6010
S2 5992
S3 5964

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6075     Trgt 2
H5 6064     Trgt 1
H4 6054     Long breakout
H3 6041     Go Short
H2 6037
H1 6033
L1 6024
L2 6020
L3 6016     Long
L4 6003     Short Breakout
L5 5993     Trgt 1
L6 5982     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-07-2013

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 6106
R2 6090
R1 6066
Avg 6050
S1 6026
S2 6010
S3 5986

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6082     Trgt 2
H5 6073     Trgt 1
H4 6064     Long breakout
H3 6053     Go Short
H2 6049
H1 6045
L1 6038
L2 6034
L3 6031     Long
L4 6020     Short Breakout
L5 6010     Trgt 1
L6 6001     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-07-2013

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11496
R2 11378
R1 11187
Avg 11069
S1 10878
S2 10760
S3 10569

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11307     Trgt 2
H5 11237     Trgt 1
H4 11166     Long breakout
H3 11081     Go Short
H2 11053
H1 11025
L1 10968
L2 10940
L3 10912     Long
L4 10827     Short Breakout
L5 10756     Trgt 1
L6 10686     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jul 22 to Jul 26,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6248
R2 6157
R1 6093
Avg 6002
S1 5938
S2 5847
S3 5783

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6187     Trgt 2
H5 6150     Trgt 1
H4 6114     Long breakout
H3 6071     Go Short
H2 6057
H1 6043
L1 6014
L2 6000
L3 5986     Long
L4 5943     Short Breakout
L5 5907     Trgt 1
L6 5870     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jul 22 to Jul 26,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12562
R2 12187
R1 11580
Avg 11205
S1 10598
S2 10223
S3 9616

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6  11967    Trgt 2
H5  11740    Trgt 1
H4  11513    Long breakout
H3  11243    Go Short
H2  11153
H1  11063
L1  10882
L2  10792
L3  10702    Long
L4  10432     Short Breakout
L5  10205    Trgt 1
L6  9978    Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-2(19-07-2013)

1st resistance range(6040-6061) was updated in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-07-2013) and Nifty is hovering around this range since opening as well as traded within 6027-6062 today with lower levels supports and higher levels selling.

As higher levels selling seen within resistance range today therefore decisive down moves will be considered after valid breaking down of 6027,firstly it should be watched in the coming week. Next immediate moves confirmation will be sustaining beyond 6027-6062. 

Mid-session Outlook(19-07-2013)

Nifty slipped below 6040 after Some selling but recovered also from lower levels and now again trading within mentioned 1st resistance range(6040-6061) after some lower levels supports. Both lower levels supports and higher levels selling seen within 6027-6060 today and no final conclusions from intraday patterns yet. It should be kept in mind that complete selling patterns are required for any decisive down moves from present trading levels.

Post-open Outlook-2(19-07-2013)

Some selling patterns seen today.

Post-open Outlook(19-07-2013)

As some recovery in US Futures and Asian markets therefore sentiment improved and positive zone trading seen within 1st resistance range(6040-6061) after gap up opening. Although Nifty is trading with some gains but its Futures is trading flat and its premium reduced by 10 points. Although it is a negative indication but today intraday chart has not shown any selling pattern formation yet therefore firstly mentioned resistance break out should be watched for next immediate moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-07-2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 top formation at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013 and 5 waves correction continuation
2- Wave 1(5936.80 on 24-05-2013)
3- Wave 2(6133.75 on 30-05-2013)
4- Wave 3(5683.10 on 13-06-2013)
5- Wave 4(5863.40 on 13-06-2013)
6- 5566.25 on 24-06-2013 and corrective Wave-A completion.
7- Wave-a of Wave-B(5904.35 on 19-07-2013)
8- Wave-b of Wave-B(5760.40 on 03-07-2013)
9- Wave-c of Wave-B continuation with top formation at 6051.10 on 19-07-2013

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As US Futures were weak yesterday therefore all Asian markets were weak and European markets also opened in Red but sudden jump seen in all European and Indian markets after sudden surge in US Futures yesterday. Although US markets closed with good gains yesterday but Dow's Futures is trading is 50 points down today morning and most Asian markets are trading in Red today morning as well as SGX Nifty also traded 29 points down today morning. 

Wave-B 18 sessions with high volatility,gap down and gap up opening from FOMC news and most fluctuating cues from US markets/Futures as well as new top formation yesterday. Next resistances are as follows:- 

1- 6040-6061
2- 6072-6130(Strong resistance range) 

Although complete selling patterns are required on daily and intraday charts for the beginning of Wave-c after Wave-B completion but highly volatile last 18 sessions of Wave-B. Nifty traded between first resistance range yesterday and but 2nd resistance range is strong. As 76.4% retracement level is at 6072 therefore sustaining it beyond should be watched today and in the coming sessions for continuation/completion of Wave-c of Wave-B.  

As busy therefore next Outlook will be updated tomorrow

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(18-07-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jul-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5973-5988 
2- Support between 5926-5935
3- High volatility in last hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 5926-5988

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Bullish news of 2nd round of FDI reforms but firstly 4 hours selling and after that fast slipping from higher levels. High volatility in last hours and lower levels supports also seen therefore if sentiment does not remain boiling tomorrow morning then Nifty will firstly trade within today trading range and prepare for next trend. As higher levels good selling and lower levels minor supports today therefore down moves possibility is high and it should be kept in mind that once forceful break down or sustaining below 5918 will mean sharp fall possibility after corrective Wave-C confirmation.

As both lower levels supports and higher levels selling between 5926-5988 today therefore firstly valid break out of this range should be watched tomorrow.

Pre-Closing Outlook(17-07-2013)

Although strong news flow but we never posted any Bullish view because intraday charts of previous sessions were showing selling patterns formations. When Nifty was trading near higher levels of today then also we told following line in previous Outlook:-

now trading near higher levels of today but with selling patterns indication and view is cautiously bearish

Now Nifty is trading above next support range(5918-5930) and and it is last hope for Bulls.  

Mid-session Outlook(17-07-2013)

Nifty traded between 5963-5989 after gap up opening and now trading near higher levels of today but with selling patterns indication and view is cautiously bearish,mentioned today trading range valid break out will be next trend strong indication. 

Pre-open Outlook(17-07-2013)

Asian markets are mixed today morning after US and European markets negative opening yesterday and Govt announced 2nd round of FDI reforms yesterday therefore some intraday up moves and intraday volatility can not be ruled out today after positive opening today. View is cautious and not Bullish because selling signals seen in intraday charts of both previous sessions. 

As big decision from Govt yesterday therefore its positive reaction will be seen on Indian markets today and good up moves will be seen in those sectors also which are broadly opened for foreign investments. Although view is still not Bullish and finally Wave-C correction is still expected but following levels valid break out will be firstly watched for next trend first indication/confirmations:- 

1-5960-6020(Next trading range and Nifty will firstly prepare for trend within this range)
2-6023-6034(Break out will be strong rally confirmation)
3-5930-5955(Break down will be first indication of Wave-C correction and confirmation will be below 5918)

Let market prepare,take positions for next  decisive moves and intraday charts start to form patterns accordingly then next trend will be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 3 years.