Mid-session Outlook(21-05-2013)

Following technical view was updated yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-05-2013):-

Indicators are showing negative divergence in Overbought zone and Short Term correction is very much due but complete selling patterns are required on EOD charts for its beginning. Intraday or very Short term correction can be seen any day in heated yesterday market and it was seen also but let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.

Following guidance was updated today in Post-open Outlook(21-05-2013):-

Nifty is trading below 6147 now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation/completion.

Almost 3 hours trading below 6147 with intraday consolidation patterns between 6120-6135 and after that up moves seen above 6147. As today consolidation is just below last Friday consolidation range(6147-6165) therefore a strong signal of correction completion but confirmation will be after sustaining above 6165.

Valid break out of 6120-6165 should be watched now for on going correction continuation/completion confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(21-05-2013)

As slipping below 6147 was expected therefore following conclusive lines were told yesterday;-

1- let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.
2- sustaining beyond 3 Sessions range should be firstly watched today for the beginning of Short Term correction below 6146 or rally continuation above 6229.

Nifty is trading below 6147 now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation/completion.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-05-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 16 to May 20,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6176-6186 on 16-05-2013
2- Good consolidation between 6147-6165 on 17-05-2013
3- Selling between 6221-6229  on 20-05-2013
4- 3 Sessions actual trading between 6146-6229 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As selling developed immediately after opening today therefore following lines were told at:-  

1- 11:46 AM- "Selling patterns formations between 6221-6229 today"
2- 12:04 PM- " Next immediate moves preparations will be done between 6147-6229"

Selling was told between 6221-6229 and Nifty could not move above 6229 as well as slipped sharply after our Outlook and Nifty traded whole day within our mentioned trading range(6147-6229) also. 

Yesterday lowest was at 6,146.05 and highest at 6,229.45.

Indicators are showing negative divergence in Overbought zone and Short Term correction is very much due but complete selling patterns are required on EOD charts for its beginning. Intraday or very Short term correction can be seen any day in heated yesterday market and it was seen also but let follow up selling develop and Nifty to sustain below next immediate support(6147) then Short Term correction will be considered.

3 Sessions actual trading between 6146-6229 with lower levels good consolidation last Friday and higher levels selling also therefore mixed patterns and sustaining beyond 3 Sessions range should be firstly watched today for the beginning of Short Term correction below 6146 or rally continuation above 6229.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 20-May-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-May-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-May-2013 3043.41 2290.04 753.37

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-May-2013 1011.53 1775.85 -764.32

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-May-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.24
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.15
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-May-2013): 18.23

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,121
BSE Declines : 1,304
NSE Advances :   596
NSE Declines :   818

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5900  CE(May)- -109,650(-4.67%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(May)- -259,350(-3.45%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(May)- -265,600(-8.40%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(May)- -642,950(-7.69%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(May)- -414,600(-7.39%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(May)- -167,100(-2.89%)

Nifty- 6200  CE(May)- -396,200(-5.26%)
Nifty- 6200  PE(May)- -149,000(-3.13%)

Nifty- 6300  CE(May)-  456,850(8.20%)
Nifty- 6300  PE(May)-  205,900(25.96%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,223.98(-62.14 Points & -0.31%)
Nifty- closed at 6,156.90(-30.40 Points & -0.49%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,130.35(-56.30 Points & -0.69%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,358.95(-13.95 Points & -0.41%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6291
R2 6260
R1 6208
Avg 6177
S1 6125
S2 6094
S3 6042

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6239     Trgt 2
H5 6220     Trgt 1
H4 6201     Long breakout
H3 6178     Go Short
H2 6171
H1 6163
L1 6148
L2 6140
L3 6133     Long
L4 6110     Short Breakout
L5 6091     Trgt 1
L6 6072     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2013

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 6302
R2 6270
R1 6217
Avg 6185
S1 6132
S2 6100
S3 6047

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6249     Trgt 2
H5 6229     Trgt 1
H4 6210     Long breakout
H3 6187     Go Short
H2 6179
H1 6171
L1 6156
L2 6148
L3 6140     Long
L4 6117     Short Breakout
L5 6098     Trgt 1
L6 6078     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2013

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 13532
R2 13440
R1 13285
Avg 13193
S1 13038
S2 12946
S3 12791

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  13377    Trgt 2
H5  13321    Trgt 1
H4  13265    Long breakout
H3  13197    Go Short
H2  13175
H1  13152
L1  13107
L2  13084
L3  13062    Long
L4  12994    Short Breakout
L5  12938    Trgt 1
L6  12882    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(20-05-2013)

As soon as selling developed then following line was told today at  11:46:00 AM

Selling patterns formations between 6221-6229 today

Although some up moves were seen after lower levels consolidations but again development of follow up selling and breaking down of today lows.

As good consolidations between 6147-6165 last Friday and until Nifty will not sustain below 6147 till then Short Term down trend will not be considered and at present  range bound market will be understood between 6147-6229 and sustaining beyond this range will be next Short Term Trend confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook-3(20-05-2013)

Although Nifty is trading near the lows of the day after higher levels selling today but emergence of consolidation patterns formation also during last more than 1 hour. Firstly valid break out of today trading range(6194-6229) should be watched for next immediate move confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(20-05-2013)

Good consolidations between 6147-6165 last Friday and today selling between 6221-6229 therefore now range bound market will be seen 6147-6229 today and possibly tomorrow. Next immediate moves preparations will be done between 6147-6229. 

Mid-session Outlook(20-05-2013)

Selling patterns formations between 6221-6229 today

Rally Continuation

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 20 to May 24,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-May-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
2- Huge correction of 2008
3- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
4- Wave-1(3240.55 on 05-11-2008)
5- Wave-2(2502.90 on 20-11-2008)
6- Wave-3(6338.50 on 05-11-2010)
7- Wave-4(4531.15 on 20-12-2011) 
8- Wave-5(Recent top formation at 6,199.95 on 17-05-2013) 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-5 continuation with  too much high targets above all time high(6357.10) and now its next immediate target is being understood through its internal structure and analysis.

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-May-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning)
2- Wave i(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave ii(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave iii(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave iii gained 1341.45 points. 
6- Wave iv(5477.20 on 10-04-2013) 
7- Wave v of Wave 5 continuation.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 of any degree should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5 of that degree. Wave-iii gained 1341.45 points and now Wave-v is on after Wave-iv completion at 5477.20. As Wave-v can not gain more than Wave-iii therefore its maximum target will be less than 6818.65 and its calculation is as follows:- 

5477.20(Wave-v begun)+1341.45(Wave-v can gain maximum points)=6818.65

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave v of Wave 5 is very much on after minor intraday and very short term correction completion. Although Indicators are showing negative divergence in overbought zone but forceful strong rally continuation and it require complete distribution patterns formations for any Short or Intermediate Term correction. It is also confirm that during distribution patterns formations new high of on going rally with lesser force will also be seen and until complete distribution patterns will not form till then any big correction will not be seen.  

As no selling patterns formations yet therefore rally continuation in the coming week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 17-May-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-May-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 17-May-2013 3140.1 2272.17 867.93

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 17-May-2013 999.2 1715.89 -716.69

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-May-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.08
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.00

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,170
BSE Declines : 1,256
NSE Advances :   648
NSE Declines :   759

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5900  CE(May)- 78,800(-3.25%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(May)- -112,150(-1.47%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(May)- -259,100(-7.57%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(May)-  448,750(5.67%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(May)- -269,550(-4.58%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(May)-  533,100(10.14%)

Nifty- 6200  CE(May)- 387,450(5.42%)
Nifty- 6200  PE(May)- 1,152,750(31.97%)

Nifty- 6300  CE(May)- 381,800(7.36%)
Nifty- 6300  PE(May)- 119,100(17.67%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,286.12(38.79 Points & 0.19%)
Nifty- closed at 6,187.30(17.40 Points & 0.28%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,186.65(44.65 Points & 0.55%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,372.90(14.55 Points & 0.43%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6261
R2 6230
R1 6208
Avg 6177
S1 6155
S2 6124
S3 6102

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6240     Trgt 2
H5 6228     Trgt 1
H4 6216     Long breakout
H3 6201     Go Short
H2 6196
H1 6191
L1 6182
L2 6177
L3 6172     Long
L4 6157     Short Breakout
L5 6145     Trgt 1
L6 6133     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2013

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 6276
R2 6242
R1 6219
Avg 6185
S1 6162
S2 6128
S3 6105

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6253     Trgt 2
H5 6240     Trgt 1
H4 6227     Long breakout
H3 6211     Go Short
H2 6206
H1 6201
L1 6190
L2 6185
L3 6180     Long
L4 6164     Short Breakout
L5 6151     Trgt 1
L6 6138     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-05-2013

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 13610
R2 13457
R1 13361
Avg 13208
S1 13112
S2 12959
S3 12863

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 13518     Trgt 2
H5 13459     Trgt 1
H4 13401     Long breakout
H3 13333     Go Short
H2 13310
H1 13287
L1 13242
L2 13219
L3 13196     Long
L4 13128     Short Breakout
L5 13070     Trgt 1
L6 13011     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(May 20 to May 24,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6496
R2 6347
R1 6267
Avg 6118
S1 6038
S2 5889
S3 5809

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6424     Trgt 2
H5 6368     Trgt 1
H4 6312     Long breakout
H3 6249     Go Short
H2 6228
H1 6207
L1 6166
L2 6145
L3 6124     Long
L4 6061     Short Breakout
L5 6005     Trgt 1
L6 5949     Trgt 2