Sensex, bonds rally as RBI governor sparks rate cut hopes

(Reuters) - Bonds and Sensex rallied on Wednesday, sending key indicators to their highest in several years, after the hawkish RBI governor said he had taken note of falling inflation, reinforcing bets about future rate cuts.

Just click following links for detailed news:-

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/sensex-nifty-banks-rbi-inflation-icici-t-idINDEE94E02W20130515

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/bonds-extend-rally-rbi-governor-sparks-rate-cut-hopes/articleshow/20061846.cms

Post-open Outlook-2(15-05-2013)

Although no positive reaction yesterday on good news of more than 1% reduction of WPI Inflation but strong rally immediately after opening today and cleared immediate resistance range(6055-6095) as well as new high of the rally formation today. As market did not showed positive reaction on such good news yesterday therefore correction continuation was expected but strong rally today and rally continuation will be considered after sustaining confirmation above immediate resistance range(6055-6095) 

Post-open Outlook(15-05-2013)

Good up moves today on the back of strong Global cues and immediate resistances are also between 6055-6095. Correction continuation is still expected but sustaining beyond mentioned resistance range should also be firstly watched for next trend confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(15-05-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-May-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
1- Selling between 6006-6025
3- Whole day actual trading between 5970-6025

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly more than first 2 hours up moves in Bearish Rising channel and it was broken down despite good news of more than 1% reduction of WPI Inflation as well as higher levels selling formations therefore suggesting down moves and correction continuation.

Pre-open Outlook(15-05-2013)

Most of the Asian markets are in Green after strong closing of US and European markets yesterday therefore sentiment is good today morning and some up moves will be seen after positive opening today. Some recovery can not be ruled out today on the back of strong global cues but higher levels selling yesterday therefore expected that finally Nifty will not sustain above 6025 and will slip in the coming sessions.

For next immediate trend confirmations sustaining beyond yesterday trading range should also be watched.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 14-May-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-May-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 14-May-2013 2276.29 1855.3 420.99

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 14-May-2013 552.49 965.15 -412.66

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-05-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6080
R2 6053
R1 6024
Avg 5997
S1 5968
S2 5941
S3 5912

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6051     Trgt 2
H5 6038     Trgt 1
H4 6025     Long breakout
H3 6010     Go Short
H2 6005
H1 6000
L1 5989
L2 5984
L3 5979     Long
L4 5964     Short Breakout
L5 5951     Trgt 1
L6 5938     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-05-2013

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 6095
R2 6067
R1 6036
Avg 6008
S1 5977
S2 5949
S3 5918

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6065     Trgt 2
H5 6051     Trgt 1
H4 6038     Long breakout
H3 6022     Go Short
H2 6016
H1 6011
L1 6000
L2 5995
L3 5989     Long
L4 5973     Short Breakout
L5 5960     Trgt 1
L6 5946     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-05-2013

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 12855
R2 12765
R1 12648
Avg 12558
S1 12441
S2 12351
S3 12234

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12739     Trgt 2
H5 12691     Trgt 1
H4 12644     Long breakout
H3 12587     Go Short
H2 12568
H1 12549
L1 12512
L2 12493
L3 12474     Long
L4 12417     Short Breakout
L5 12370     Trgt 1
L6 12322     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-2 (14-05-2013)

As intraday selling patterns formation today therefore correction continuation is expected in the coming sessions.

Post-open Outlook(14-05-2013)

As reduced WPI inflation is expected today and sentiment is depressed after yesterday fall therefore some recovery from lower levels today for the improvement of market mood and some more up moves also can not be ruled out. As strong resistances are between 6055-6095 therefore next sustained up moves above 6095 will be seen only after complete consolidations,let it happen then rally will be considered otherwise correction is continued and more down moves in the coming sessions can not be ruled out after facing resistances at higher levels.

Live Proofs of our 100% Accurate Predictions

Following lines were told at 06:51 AM on 11-05-2013 which proved 100% Accurate in both previous Bullish and Bearish sessions:-

Green zone trading will be seen in today short special session and new top above 6111.80 is also possible but it should be kept in mind that Short Term Correction is very much due and may begin any day.  

Our above prediction proved 100% accurate in following manner:-

1- On 11-05-2013:- "Nifty closed 12 points up with new top formations at 6114.55"

2- On 13-05-2013:- "Nifty closed 126 points down"

Just click following topic link and verify above fact on yours own:-

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(11-05-2013)

Corrective Wave-A of impulsive Wave-5 confirmation yesterday

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-05-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 07 to May 13,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 6 Sessions intraday charts

1- Good selling in previous week.
2- 6 sessions lowest formation in a single day down moves on 13-05-2013.

Conclusions from 6 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although 6 sessions lowest formation in a single day down moves on 13-05-2013 but intraday showed selling formations in previous week therefore we clearly told for following lines for correction in previous sessions:-

1- On 10-05-2013 in Correcion on cards:-"Short Term correction is very much possible"
2- On 11-05-2013 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(11-05-2013):-

i- "correction is very much due because selling patterns seen in previous sessions also"  
ii- "emergence of selling patterns in intraday charts therefore correction is very much due now"
iii- " it should be kept in mind that Short Term Correction is very much due and may begin any day"

As was clearly told for correction again and again same happened yesterday,Nifty closed below the lowest of previous 5 sessions and formed almost 'Engulfing Bearish Candle' which is confirmation of Short Term correction. As correction was due after previous 5 sessions selling therefore seen yesterday and such complete consolidation is also required for next upward wave above 6114.

Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend turned down as well as confirmation of Corrective Wave-A of impulsive Wave-5 yesterday. Now 'ABC' correction is on and following Fibonacci Retracement Levels levels should be watched for correction completion confirmations:- 

27.0%- 5942
38.2%- 5870
50.0%- 5795
61.8%- 5720
70.7%- 5663
76.4%- 5627

Correction confirmation and it will take its own time. Let down moves stop and consolidation begin as well as correction complete then will be updated in the same manner as being done in for the last 3 years. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-May-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-May-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-May-2013 1872.3 1628.21 244.09

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-May-2013 651.09 1105.91 -454.82

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(13-May-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.01
Nifty P/E Ratio(13-May-2013): 17.74

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   809
BSE Declines : 1,540
NSE Advances :   383
NSE Declines : 1,033

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800  CE(May)-  31,100(1.47%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(May)- -477,600(-5.29%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(May)- 12,750(0.42%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(May)- -614,750(-8.53%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(May)- 1,383,500(30.15%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(May)- -475,550(-7.44%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(May)- 553,100(10.09%)
Nifty- 6100  PE(May)- -472,900(-14.33%)

Nifty- 6200  CE(May)- -164,450(-2.05%)
Nifty- 6200  PE(May)- -135,400(-13.34%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,691.67(-430.65 Points & -2.14%)
Nifty- closed at 5,980.45(-126.80 Points & -2.08%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,884.95(-145.95 Points & -1.82%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,306.80(-51.80 Points & -1.54%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6197
R2 6150
R1 6065
Avg 6018
S1 5933
S2 5886
S3 5801

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6112     Trgt 2
H5 6082     Trgt 1
H4 6052     Long breakout
H3 6016     Go Short
H2 6004
H1 5992
L1 5967
L2 5955
L3 5943     Long
L4 5907     Short Breakout
L5 5877     Trgt 1
L6 5847     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2013

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 6213
R2 6166
R1 6080
Avg 6033
S1 5947
S2 5900
S3 5814

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6127     Trgt 2
H5 6097     Trgt 1
H4 6067     Long breakout
H3 6030     Go Short
H2 6018
H1 6006
L1 5981
L2 5969
L3 5957     Long
L4 5920     Short Breakout
L5 5890     Trgt 1
L6 5860     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2013

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 13076
R2 12955
R1 12743
Avg 12622
S1 12410
S2 12289
S3 12077

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12864     Trgt 2
H5 12789     Trgt 1
H4 12714     Long breakout
H3 12622     Go Short
H2 12592
H1 12561
L1 12500
L2 12469
L3 12439     Long
L4 12347     Short Breakout
L5 12272     Trgt 1
L6 12197     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook(13-05-2013)

As sufficient reduction in CPI inflation(MoM) as well as lower levels intraday supports today therefore some up moves after weak opening. All trends are up but Short Term Correction is also very much due because indicators are showing negative divergence in overbought zone. Although rally top formation on 11-05-2013 but intraday selling patterns formations were also seen in previous week therefore minor correction is being seen today.

Trading is expected between 6025-6114 with minimum sideways correction possibility.

As busy today therefore Mid-session Outlooks will be updated after 11:00 AM today.