Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Apr 15 to Apr 18,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Apr-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave 3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
6- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
7- Wave C of Wave 4 continuation with bottom formation at 5477.20 on 10-04-2012
8- 200 Day EMA at 5664 on 12-04-2012
9- 200 Day DMA at 5652 on 12-04-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 15 to Apr 018,2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 7 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels Supports and hIgher levels selling.
3- 7 Sessions actual trading between 5478-4645 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down after following crucial levels broken down confirmations:-

1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5664)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA(5652)
4- 5548.35(Strong support broken down)

Technically nothing is left for Bulls after crucial levels broken down confirmations but FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and lower levels supports were also seen in last 7 sessions as well as Indicators are showing positive divergence in Oversold zone therefore Pull Back Rally possibility turned alive and valid break out of previous 7 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched in next week for next Short Term Trend confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 12-Apr-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 12-Apr-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 12-Apr-2013 2858.2 2886.79 -28.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 12-Apr-2013 795.91 1107.83 -311.92

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(12-Apr-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.02
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Nifty P/E Ratio(12-Apr-2013): 16.71

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,031
BSE Declines : 1,275
NSE Advances :   548
NSE Declines :   761

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400  CE(Apr)- -37,550(-3.74%)
Nifty- 5400  PE(Apr)- -529,000(-7.46%)

Nifty- 5500  CE(Apr)- 769,650(27.87%)
Nifty- 5500  PE(Apr)- -769,250(-10.44%)

Nifty- 5600  CE(Apr)- 1,208,750(20.79%)
Nifty- 5600  PE(Apr)- -871,800(-13.85%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(Apr)- 585,900(7.87%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Apr)- -204,100(-7.62%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Apr)- 303,400(4.35%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Apr)- -176,300(-13.20%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,242.56(-299.64 Points & -1.62%)
Nifty- closed at 5,528.55(-65.45 Points & -1.17%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,419.55(-6.00 Points & -0.08%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,129.00(-11.50 Points & -0.37%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-04-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5600
R2 5572
R1 5550
Avg 5522
S1 5500
S2 5472
S3 5450

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5578     Trgt 2
H5 5566     Trgt 1
H4 5555     Long breakout
H3 5541     Go Short
H2 5537
H1 5532
L1 5523
L2 5518
L3 5514     Long
L4 5500     Short Breakout
L5 5489     Trgt 1
L6 5477     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-04-2013

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5608
R2 5585
R1 5560
Avg 5537
S1 5512
S2 5489
S3 5464

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5583     Trgt 2
H5 5572     Trgt 1
H4 5561     Long breakout
H3 5548     Go Short
H2 5543
H1 5539
L1 5530
L2 5526
L3 5521     Long
L4 5508     Short Breakout
L5 5497     Trgt 1
L6 5486     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-04-2013

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 11806
R2 11626
R1 11513
Avg 11333
S1 11220
S2 11040
S3 10927

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11700     Trgt 2
H5 11631     Trgt 1
H4 11562     Long breakout
H3 11481     Go Short
H2 11454
H1 11427
L1 11374
L2 11347
L3 11320     Long
L4 11239     Short Breakout
L5 11170     Trgt 1
L6 11101     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 15 to Apr 18,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5734
R2 5672
R1 5600
Avg 5538
S1 5466
S2 5404
S3 5332

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5663     Trgt 2
H5 5632     Trgt 1
H4 5601     Long breakout
H3 5564     Go Short
H2 5552
H1 5540
L1 5515
L2 5503
L3 5491     Long
L4 5454     Short Breakout
L5 5423     Trgt 1
L6 5392     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 15 to Apr 18,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12159
R2 11801
R1 11605
Avg 11247
S1 11051
S2 10693
S3 10497

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 11990     Trgt 2
H5 11852     Trgt 1
H4 11714     Long breakout
H3 11562     Go Short
H2 11511
H1 11460
L1 11359
L2 11308
L3 11257     Long
L4 11105     Short Breakout
L5 10967     Trgt 1
L6 10829     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook(12-04-2013)

Although first 3 hours trading without selling patterns between 5522-5543 but this range broken down because sentiment is depressed today therefore immediate much down moves not seen. As some supports also seen at lower levels today therefore Very Short Term view is not bearish and break out of today actual trading range(5508-5543) should be watched for next moves confirmations towards next wider trading range(5478-5610)

Post-open Outlook(12-04-2013)

When INFY was trading near the top of day after gaining more than Rs 100/- then following line was told yesterday at 02:29 PM in Pre-Closing Outlook:-

As INFY was more than 30% up after previous results therefore selling can not be ruled out on the back of such bullish psychology today

As was told same happened and INFY is down more than 17% today after yesterday selling.

Technical positions have already been updated in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-04-2013) and INFY results led volatility today. As technical reverses sharply in such volatility therefore next moves will get confirmations after stabilising of market. 

It should be kept in mind that Technically nothing is left for Bulls after crucial levels broken down confirmations but FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and they were net buyers daily therefore firstly valid break out previous 2 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations because both buying and selling seen within this range and Nifty is trading within this range today amid most depressing sentiments.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-04-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Apr-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5574-5589 
2- Support between 5542-5562
3- High volatility in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 5542-5610

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Totally mixed patterns and technical positions reverses also during High volatility therefore Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves in the coming session. As Following 3 news today therefore again high volatility can not be ruled out:-

1- INFY results.
2- IIP numbers.
3- Inflation data.

Following crucial levels have already been broken down:-

1- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
2- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5650 on 11-04-2012
4- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA at 5666 on 11-04-2012

Although Bearish market confirmations through breaking down of above levels and until Nifty will not close and sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5666) till then trend reversal will not be considered but positive moves indication also due to following reasons:-

1- Nifty closed 5548.35 in last 2 sessions. 
2- Lower levels supports also seen in last 2 sessions.
3- FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and they were net buyers daily.

Such high buying in Stock Futures does also mean that sentiment made depressed through Indices stocks and Futures selling and making long positions created through Stock Futures buying therefore emergence of 1st signal of up moves and coming sessions follow up positions will decide next trend.

Technically nothing is left for Bulls after above mentioned all crucial levels broken down confirmations but above mentioned 3 indications of Positive markets also seen therefore firstly valid break out of previous 2 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations because both buying and selling seen within this range.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 11-Apr-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Apr-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-Apr-2013 3395.11 3358.48 36.63

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-Apr-2013 659.02 601.31 57.71

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-Apr-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.01
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(11-Apr-2013): 16.83

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 869
BSE Declines : 812
NSE Advances : 700
NSE Declines : 611

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Apr)- -362,500(-11.60%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Apr)-  1,228,100(20.00%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Apr)- -145,200(-2.44%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Apr)-  628,450(11.09%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(Apr)- -863,150(-10.39%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Apr)-  151,650(6.00%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Apr)- -767,200(-9.91%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Apr)- -47,550(-3.44%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,542.20(127.75 Points & 0.69%)
Nifty- closed at 5,594.00(35.30 Points & 0.64%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,425.55(-9.25 Points & -0.12%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,140.50(2.25 Points & 0.07 %)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-04-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5690
R2 5650
R1 5622
Avg 5582
S1 5554
S2 5514
S3 5486

Trading Strategy

H6 5662     Trgt 2
H5 5647     Trgt 1
H4 5631     Long breakout
H3 5612     Go Short
H2 5606
H1 5600
L1 5587
L2 5581
L3 5575     Long
L4 5556     Short Breakout
L5 5540     Trgt 1
L6 5525     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-04-2013

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5701
R2 5659
R1 5626
Avg 5584
S1 5551
S2 5509
S3 5476

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5669     Trgt 2
H5 5652     Trgt 1
H4 5635     Long breakout
H3 5614     Go Short
H2 5607
H1 5600
L1 5587
L2 5580
L3 5573     Long
L4 5552     Short Breakout
L5 5535     Trgt 1
L6 5518     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-04-2013

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 11586
R2 11467
R1 11388
Avg 11269
S1 11190
S2 11071
S3 10992

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11509     Trgt 2
H5 11463     Trgt 1
H4 11417     Long breakout
H3 11363     Go Short
H2 11345
H1 11327
L1 11290
L2 11272
L3 11254     Long
L4 11200     Short Breakout
L5 11154     Trgt 1
L6 11108     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(11-04-2013)

Sharp fall after first 3 hours selling indications between 5574-5589 and formation of new intraday low at 5542.85 but equally fast recovery and new trading high formation at 5610 which is above Next resistance(5590-5600). 3 Following news tomorrow:-                                                                          
1- INFY results.
2- IIP numbers.
3- Inflation data.

Pull Back rally continuation as per expectations and further up moves will depend on above news tomorrow but decisive rally confirmation will be after sustaining above those levels which have been updated in following topic yesterday:-

Pull Back Rally Continuation

As INFY was more than 30% up after previous results therefore selling can not be ruled out on the back of such bullish psychology today. Let Nifty sustain above 5600 then up moves will be considered otherwise only intraday volatility and finally down moves because selling during first 3 hours today.

Mid-session Outlook(11-04-2013)

Next resistance is between 5590-5600 and today first 3 hours trading between 5574-5589 with selling indications therefore development of down moves possibilities.

Pull Back Rally Continuation

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Apr-2013):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5488-5518
2- Sudden volatility
3- Up moves in Rising Channel which broken down also in last 15 minutes.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5478-5569

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Recovery from lower levels after first 3 hours consolidation and after that high volatility with both side new highs and lows formations. Finally up moves seen in Rising Channel during last hours but Rising Channel broken down also in last 15 minutes. Sentiment was extremely depressed due to 5 crucial levels broken down confirmation therefore Bounce back(Pull Back rally) was expected and that was seen also but complete consolidation patterns are required for any decisive rally and at present only Pull Back rally continuation will be considered.

US markets are more than 1% up at this moment and such closing today will mean strong sentiment tomorrow morning and all the Asian markets may be strong resultant Gap Up opening can not be ruled out in Indian markets but all trends are down and multiple resistances at higher levels therefore until Nifty will not sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5666) till then any decisive rally will not be considered. Sustaining above following levels will give next up moves confirmations one by one and failure will result down moves continuation but after fresh selling patterns formations:-

1- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
2- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5647 on 10-04-2012