Although first 3 hours trading without selling patterns between 5522-5543 but this range broken down because sentiment is depressed today therefore immediate much down moves not seen. As some supports also seen at lower levels today therefore Very Short Term view is not bearish and break out of today actual trading range(5508-5543) should be watched for next moves confirmations towards next wider trading range(5478-5610)
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Post-open Outlook(12-04-2013)
When INFY was trading near the top of day after gaining more than Rs 100/- then following line was told yesterday at 02:29 PM in Pre-Closing Outlook:-
As INFY was more than 30% up after previous results therefore selling can not be ruled out on the back of such bullish psychology today
Technical positions have already been updated in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-04-2013) and INFY results led volatility today. As technical reverses sharply in such volatility therefore next moves will get confirmations after stabilising of market.
It should be kept in mind that Technically nothing is left for Bulls after crucial levels broken down confirmations but FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and they were net buyers daily therefore firstly valid break out previous 2 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations because both buying and selling seen within this range and Nifty is trading within this range today amid most depressing sentiments.
As INFY was more than 30% up after previous results therefore selling can not be ruled out on the back of such bullish psychology today
As was told same happened and INFY is down more than 17% today after yesterday selling.
Technical positions have already been updated in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-04-2013) and INFY results led volatility today. As technical reverses sharply in such volatility therefore next moves will get confirmations after stabilising of market.
It should be kept in mind that Technically nothing is left for Bulls after crucial levels broken down confirmations but FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and they were net buyers daily therefore firstly valid break out previous 2 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations because both buying and selling seen within this range and Nifty is trading within this range today amid most depressing sentiments.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-04-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Apr-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 5574-5589
2- Support between 5542-5562
3- High volatility in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 5542-5610
Totally mixed patterns and technical positions reverses also during High volatility therefore Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves in the coming session. As Following 3 news today therefore again high volatility can not be ruled out:-
1- INFY results.
2- IIP numbers.
3- Inflation data.
Following crucial levels have already been broken down:-
1- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
2- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5650 on 11-04-2012
4- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA at 5666 on 11-04-2012
Although Bearish market confirmations through breaking down of above levels and until Nifty will not close and sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5666) till then trend reversal will not be considered but positive moves indication also due to following reasons:-
1- Nifty closed 5548.35 in last 2 sessions.
2- Lower levels supports also seen in last 2 sessions.
3- FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and they were net buyers daily.
Such high buying in Stock Futures does also mean that sentiment made depressed through Indices stocks and Futures selling and making long positions created through Stock Futures buying therefore emergence of 1st signal of up moves and coming sessions follow up positions will decide next trend.
Technically nothing is left for Bulls after above mentioned all crucial levels broken down confirmations but above mentioned 3 indications of Positive markets also seen therefore firstly valid break out of previous 2 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations because both buying and selling seen within this range.
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 5574-5589
2- Support between 5542-5562
3- High volatility in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 5542-5610
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Totally mixed patterns and technical positions reverses also during High volatility therefore Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves in the coming session. As Following 3 news today therefore again high volatility can not be ruled out:-
1- INFY results.
2- IIP numbers.
3- Inflation data.
Following crucial levels have already been broken down:-
1- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
2- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5650 on 11-04-2012
4- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA at 5666 on 11-04-2012
Although Bearish market confirmations through breaking down of above levels and until Nifty will not close and sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5666) till then trend reversal will not be considered but positive moves indication also due to following reasons:-
1- Nifty closed 5548.35 in last 2 sessions.
2- Lower levels supports also seen in last 2 sessions.
3- FIIs bought more than 3200 Cr in Stock Futures during April 2013 and they were net buyers daily.
Such high buying in Stock Futures does also mean that sentiment made depressed through Indices stocks and Futures selling and making long positions created through Stock Futures buying therefore emergence of 1st signal of up moves and coming sessions follow up positions will decide next trend.
Technically nothing is left for Bulls after above mentioned all crucial levels broken down confirmations but above mentioned 3 indications of Positive markets also seen therefore firstly valid break out of previous 2 sessions trading range(5478-5610) should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations because both buying and selling seen within this range.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Apr-2013
| ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-Apr-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
RatiosIndex Options Put Call Ratio: 1.01
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(11-Apr-2013): 16.83
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 869
BSE Declines : 812
NSE Advances : 700
NSE Declines : 611
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Apr)- -362,500(-11.60%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Apr)- 1,228,100(20.00%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Apr)- -145,200(-2.44%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Apr)- 628,450(11.09%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Apr)- -863,150(-10.39%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Apr)- 151,650(6.00%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Apr)- -767,200(-9.91%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Apr)- -47,550(-3.44%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 18,542.20(127.75 Points & 0.69%)
Nifty- closed at 5,594.00(35.30 Points & 0.64%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,425.55(-9.25 Points & -0.12%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,140.50(2.25 Points & 0.07 %)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-04-2013
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5690
R2 5650
R1 5622
Avg 5582
S1 5554
S2 5514
S3 5486
Trading Strategy
H6 5662 Trgt 2
H5 5647 Trgt 1
H4 5631 Long breakout
H3 5612 Go Short
H2 5606
H1 5600
L1 5587
L2 5581
L3 5575 Long
L4 5556 Short Breakout
L5 5540 Trgt 1
L6 5525 Trgt 2
R3 5690
R2 5650
R1 5622
Avg 5582
S1 5554
S2 5514
S3 5486
Trading Strategy
H6 5662 Trgt 2
H5 5647 Trgt 1
H4 5631 Long breakout
H3 5612 Go Short
H2 5606
H1 5600
L1 5587
L2 5581
L3 5575 Long
L4 5556 Short Breakout
L5 5540 Trgt 1
L6 5525 Trgt 2
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-04-2013
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
R3 5701
R2 5659
R1 5626
Avg 5584
S1 5551
S2 5509
S3 5476
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5669 Trgt 2
H5 5652 Trgt 1
H4 5635 Long breakout
H3 5614 Go Short
H2 5607
H1 5600
L1 5587
L2 5580
L3 5573 Long
L4 5552 Short Breakout
L5 5535 Trgt 1
L6 5518 Trgt 2
R3 5701
R2 5659
R1 5626
Avg 5584
S1 5551
S2 5509
S3 5476
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5669 Trgt 2
H5 5652 Trgt 1
H4 5635 Long breakout
H3 5614 Go Short
H2 5607
H1 5600
L1 5587
L2 5580
L3 5573 Long
L4 5552 Short Breakout
L5 5535 Trgt 1
L6 5518 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-04-2013
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
R3 11586
R2 11467
R1 11388
Avg 11269
S1 11190
S2 11071
S3 10992
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11509 Trgt 2
H5 11463 Trgt 1
H4 11417 Long breakout
H3 11363 Go Short
H2 11345
H1 11327
L1 11290
L2 11272
L3 11254 Long
L4 11200 Short Breakout
L5 11154 Trgt 1
L6 11108 Trgt 2
R3 11586
R2 11467
R1 11388
Avg 11269
S1 11190
S2 11071
S3 10992
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11509 Trgt 2
H5 11463 Trgt 1
H4 11417 Long breakout
H3 11363 Go Short
H2 11345
H1 11327
L1 11290
L2 11272
L3 11254 Long
L4 11200 Short Breakout
L5 11154 Trgt 1
L6 11108 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(11-04-2013)
Sharp fall after first 3 hours selling indications between 5574-5589 and formation of new intraday low at 5542.85 but equally fast recovery and new trading high formation at 5610 which is above Next resistance(5590-5600). 3 Following news tomorrow:-
1- INFY results.
2- IIP numbers.
3- Inflation data.
Pull Back rally continuation as per expectations and further up moves will depend on above news tomorrow but decisive rally confirmation will be after sustaining above those levels which have been updated in following topic yesterday:-
As INFY was more than 30% up after previous results therefore selling can not be ruled out on the back of such bullish psychology today. Let Nifty sustain above 5600 then up moves will be considered otherwise only intraday volatility and finally down moves because selling during first 3 hours today.
1- INFY results.
2- IIP numbers.
3- Inflation data.
Pull Back rally continuation as per expectations and further up moves will depend on above news tomorrow but decisive rally confirmation will be after sustaining above those levels which have been updated in following topic yesterday:-
As INFY was more than 30% up after previous results therefore selling can not be ruled out on the back of such bullish psychology today. Let Nifty sustain above 5600 then up moves will be considered otherwise only intraday volatility and finally down moves because selling during first 3 hours today.
Mid-session Outlook(11-04-2013)
Next resistance is between 5590-5600 and today first 3 hours trading between 5574-5589 with selling indications therefore development of down moves possibilities.
Pull Back Rally Continuation
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Apr-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 5488-5518
2- Sudden volatility
3- Up moves in Rising Channel which broken down also in last 15 minutes.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5478-5569
Recovery from lower levels after first 3 hours consolidation and after that high volatility with both side new highs and lows formations. Finally up moves seen in Rising Channel during last hours but Rising Channel broken down also in last 15 minutes. Sentiment was extremely depressed due to 5 crucial levels broken down confirmation therefore Bounce back(Pull Back rally) was expected and that was seen also but complete consolidation patterns are required for any decisive rally and at present only Pull Back rally continuation will be considered.
US markets are more than 1% up at this moment and such closing today will mean strong sentiment tomorrow morning and all the Asian markets may be strong resultant Gap Up opening can not be ruled out in Indian markets but all trends are down and multiple resistances at higher levels therefore until Nifty will not sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5666) till then any decisive rally will not be considered. Sustaining above following levels will give next up moves confirmations one by one and failure will result down moves continuation but after fresh selling patterns formations:-
1- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
2- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5647 on 10-04-2012
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 5488-5518
2- Sudden volatility
3- Up moves in Rising Channel which broken down also in last 15 minutes.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5478-5569
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Recovery from lower levels after first 3 hours consolidation and after that high volatility with both side new highs and lows formations. Finally up moves seen in Rising Channel during last hours but Rising Channel broken down also in last 15 minutes. Sentiment was extremely depressed due to 5 crucial levels broken down confirmation therefore Bounce back(Pull Back rally) was expected and that was seen also but complete consolidation patterns are required for any decisive rally and at present only Pull Back rally continuation will be considered.
US markets are more than 1% up at this moment and such closing today will mean strong sentiment tomorrow morning and all the Asian markets may be strong resultant Gap Up opening can not be ruled out in Indian markets but all trends are down and multiple resistances at higher levels therefore until Nifty will not sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5666) till then any decisive rally will not be considered. Sustaining above following levels will give next up moves confirmations one by one and failure will result down moves continuation but after fresh selling patterns formations:-
1- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
2- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5647 on 10-04-2012
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-Apr-2013
| ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-Apr-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
RatiosIndex Options Put Call Ratio:0.90
Total Options Put Call Ratio:0.88
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-Apr-2013):16.75
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 848
BSE Declines : 847
NSE Advances : 689
NSE Declines : 628
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5500 CE(Apr)- -269,050(-7.93%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Apr)- 653,050(11.90%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(Apr)- -49,600(-0.83%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Apr)- -210,200(-3.58%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Apr)- -214,100(-2.51%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Apr)- -408,000(-13.90%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Apr)- -533,700(-6.45%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Apr)- -94,000(-6.36%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Apr)- -20,950(-0.33%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Apr)- -38,750(-4.57%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 18,414.45(187.97 Points & 1.03%)
Nifty- closed at 5,558.70(63.60 Points & 1.16%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,434.80(64.15 Points & 0.87%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,138.25(21.55 Points & 0.69%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-04-2013
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5684
R2 5626
R1 5592
Avg 5534
S1 5500
S2 5442
S3 5408
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5651 Trgt 2
H5 5629 Trgt 1
H4 5608 Long breakout
H3 5583 Go Short
H2 5574
H1 5566
L1 5549
L2 5541
L3 5532 Long
L4 5507 Short Breakout
L5 5486 Trgt 1
L6 5464 Trgt 2
R3 5684
R2 5626
R1 5592
Avg 5534
S1 5500
S2 5442
S3 5408
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5651 Trgt 2
H5 5629 Trgt 1
H4 5608 Long breakout
H3 5583 Go Short
H2 5574
H1 5566
L1 5549
L2 5541
L3 5532 Long
L4 5507 Short Breakout
L5 5486 Trgt 1
L6 5464 Trgt 2
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-04-2013
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
R3 5697
R2 5637
R1 5600
Avg 5540
S1 5503
S2 5443
S3 5406
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5661 Trgt 2
H5 5638 Trgt 1
H4 5616 Long breakout
H3 5589 Go Short
H2 5580
H1 5571
L1 5554
L2 5545
L3 5536 Long
L4 5509 Short Breakout
L5 5487 Trgt 1
L6 5464 Trgt 2
R3 5697
R2 5637
R1 5600
Avg 5540
S1 5503
S2 5443
S3 5406
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5661 Trgt 2
H5 5638 Trgt 1
H4 5616 Long breakout
H3 5589 Go Short
H2 5580
H1 5571
L1 5554
L2 5545
L3 5536 Long
L4 5509 Short Breakout
L5 5487 Trgt 1
L6 5464 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-04-2013
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
R3 11498
R2 11332
R1 11236
Avg 11070
S1 10974
S2 10808
S3 10712
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11407 Trgt 2
H5 11345 Trgt 1
H4 11284 Long breakout
H3 11212 Go Short
H2 11188
H1 11164
L1 11115
L2 11091
L3 11067 Long
L4 10995 Short Breakout
L5 10934 Trgt 1
L6 10872 Trgt 2
R3 11498
R2 11332
R1 11236
Avg 11070
S1 10974
S2 10808
S3 10712
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11407 Trgt 2
H5 11345 Trgt 1
H4 11284 Long breakout
H3 11212 Go Short
H2 11188
H1 11164
L1 11115
L2 11091
L3 11067 Long
L4 10995 Short Breakout
L5 10934 Trgt 1
L6 10872 Trgt 2
Mid-session Outlook(10-04-2013)
First 3 hours trading with consolidation pattern between 5488-5518 and after that high volatility as well as both side high and low broken out. Although finally bounce seen today but until complete consolidation will not happen till then any decisive rally will not be seen and only Pull Back rally will be considered at this moment after sustaining above 5548.35.
Pre-open Outlook(10-04-2013)
Short term indicators are oversold and yesterday closing within gap supports range(447.45-5526.95) as well as sentiment is positive after Green closing in US markets therefore some up moves and Pull Back Rally can not be ruled out but until Nifty will not sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5667) till then any decisive rally will not be considered.
Bearish phase after crucial levels breaking down confirmations
Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave 3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave 4 correction beginning
6- Wave 4 bottom formation at 5487.00 on 09-04-2012
7- 200 Day EMA at 5667 on 09-04-2012
8- 200 Day DMA at 5645 on 09-04-2012
9- Neckline broken down of almost 7 months old Huge Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern which started on 14-09-2012.
Following crucial levels broken down confirmation:-
1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA at 5667 on 09-04-2012
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5645 on 09-04-2012
4- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
5- Neckline of almost 7 months old Huge Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern
Bearish phase beginning after breaking down confirmation of above most crucial levels and testing possibility of unbelievable lower levels in the coming months. Next supports are as follows which may generate Pull Back Rally:-
1- Gap Support between 5447.45-5526.95
2- Gap Support between 5260.60-5309.20
3- Support at 5215.70
4- Support at 5032.40
5- Support at 4770.35
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave 3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave 4 correction beginning
6- Wave 4 bottom formation at 5487.00 on 09-04-2012
7- 200 Day EMA at 5667 on 09-04-2012
8- 200 Day DMA at 5645 on 09-04-2012
9- Neckline broken down of almost 7 months old Huge Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern which started on 14-09-2012.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Following crucial levels broken down confirmation:-
1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA at 5667 on 09-04-2012
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day DMA at 5645 on 09-04-2012
4- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
5- Neckline of almost 7 months old Huge Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern
Bearish phase beginning after breaking down confirmation of above most crucial levels and testing possibility of unbelievable lower levels in the coming months. Next supports are as follows which may generate Pull Back Rally:-
1- Gap Support between 5447.45-5526.95
2- Gap Support between 5260.60-5309.20
3- Support at 5215.70
4- Support at 5032.40
5- Support at 4770.35
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)