Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 04 to Mar 08,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6046
R2 596
R1 5840
Avg 5756
S1 5634
S2 5550
S3 5428

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5926     Trgt 2
H5 5879     Trgt 1
H4 5832     Long breakout
H3 5775     Go Short
H2 5756
H1 5737
L1 5700
L2 5681
L3 5662     Long
L4 5605     Short Breakout
L5 5558     Trgt 1
L6 5511     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Mar 04 to Mar 08,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 12722
R2 12430
R1 11985
Avg 11693
S1 11248
S2 10956
S3 10511

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12285     Trgt 2
H5 12115     Trgt 1
H4 11945     Long breakout
H3 11742     Go Short
H2 11675
H1 11607
L1 11472
L2 11404
L3 11337     Long
L4 11134     Short Breakout
L5 10964     Trgt 1
L6 10794     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(01-03-2013)

Quiet market today after steep fall yesterday and today minor up moves are only correction of yesterday fall. As complely range bound market today and intraday chats are showing mixed patterns therefore follow up moves will be watched next Monday for the confirmations of correction completion/continuation.

As intraday selling also at higher levels today therefore more down moves possibility is still alive.

Mid-session Outlook(01-03-2013)

As sharp down yesterday after disappointing Budget in very short term indicators moving into Oversold zone yesterday therefore minor up moves today. Next strong supports are at 5548.35 and slipping up to that level can not be ruled out. Very short term up moves may be seen any time but decisive up moves will be possible only after complete consolidations.

Pull Back rally may be possible but after some consolidations,let it happen first then will be considered.

Technical Analysis and Research For 01-03-2013

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111. 
2- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
3- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013 
4- 3 Consecutive closing below 5823 in previous sessions.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 with trend reversal bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and 3 Consecutive closing below its Neckline(5823) in previous sessions therefore its breaking down confirmations. Now more down moves are expected toward next supports at 5548.35

Pre-Closing Outlook(01-03-2013)

Indian markets gave weakness confirmations yesterday therefore some more down moves are expected and 5548.35 will be watched because good supports there.

Pre-Closing Outlook(28-02-2013)

Routine eventless Budget without big proposals and no significant impact therefore market tumbled during and after Budget. Today is 3rd day below 5823 and today again slipped from it as well as going to close below it also therefore confirmations of 5823 breaking down resultant more down moves possibility toward 5548. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(28-02-2013)

As market will react on Budget proposals differently and may be volatile also as well as technical positions reverses in such news based moves therefore next trend confirmations should be finally drawn from forceful break out of 5823 or sustaining it beyond. 

Mid-session Outlook(28-02-2013)

Increase of Subsidies and market does not like it therefore emergence of down moves possibilities also and finally sustaining beyond 5823 should be watched after for post Budget market trend.

Post-open Outlook(28-02-2013)

As intraday mixed patterns were seen between 5795-5818 yesterday and fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above it therefore immediate down moves after gap up opening may be for it also. Weakness should not be concluded from today first hour down moves and slipping below 5823 and Stop Loss should be rather longer because volatility may be high today.

Emergence of consolidation indications today therefore development of up moves expectation after Budget.

Next Big Trend beyond 5823 after Budget

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5749-5782 
2- Mixed Patterns between 5795-5818
3- Whole day actual trading between 5749-5818 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As first 3 hours lower levels good consolidations therefore fresh selling is required for sustaining below 5749 but last 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns therefore follow up consolidation is also required for any decisive up move above 5818.

61 previous sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 and most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with Neckline at 5823 within this range. Although its Neckline has already been Broken down on 26-02-2013 but breaking down confirmation is required yet therefore Indian markets are technically well poised to respond and react according to Budget today and finally sustaining beyond Neckline(5823) will give following moves confirmations:-

1- Below 5823 will mean fast 5647/5548
2- Above 5823 will be strong indication of correction correction completion and confirmation will be after valid break out of next multiple resistances up to 6111.

Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2013)

Gap up opening today because strong global cues today morning but market will be quiet before Budget and will be volatile also during Budget speech according to its announcements. As previous 2 sessions closing below Neckline(5823) and today closing below it will mean breaking down confirmation through 3 sessions closing below it but closing above 5823 will also mean indication of strong rally after market and industry favourable Budget.

Neither Bullish nor Bearish and should be firstly watched sustaining beyond 5823 after Budget for next big trend strong indication 

Mid-session Outlook(27-02-2013)

When Nifty was trading in Red near today lower levels then bounce back possibility was told at 10:48 AM today and it was seen also and now Nifty is trading above 5800 as well. 

Although I always give range for confirmation of next moves and Trends but can not be given today because news based highly volatile markets and without any base formations.

Firstly validity of yesterday breaking down has to be decided and sustaining beyond 5823 will be watched specially after Budget and then next big trend will be decided accordingly and it should be kept in mind that:-

1- Market is well prepared for big down moves and that will trigger after confirmation of sustaining below 5823.
2- Only big announcements in Budget may save Indian markets from going into Bear grip and strong rally after Budget will be its strong indication as well as confirmation will be after sustaining above crucial Resistances.

Post-open Outlook(27-02-2013)

No respite,under performance than Global markets and down moves continuations after positive opening but Budget announcement tomorrow therefore a bounce back possibility can not be ruled out because very short term indicators are Oversold now.

Last hope for Bulls is Union Budget

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111. 
8- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
9- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Neckline of trend reversal Bearish Head and Shoulders broken down today after following negative news:-

1- US markets closed more than 1.55% to 2.22% down on 25-02-2013.
2- Most Asian markets closed near lowest levels with more than 1% down on 26-02-2013.
3- All European markets traded than 1.5%% weak during Indian trading hours.
4- Disappointing Railway Budget because increase in freight rates is bound to push all round inflation in the country.

A big trend reversal through 61 sessions trading range broken down today due to flood most unexpected negative news flow therefore confirmation is required yet through:-

1- 3 Sessions closing below 5823 or
2- 3% Down from 5823.

As today down moves were without as such selling formations therefore above mentioned confirmation is must for testing of following levels:-

1- 5647(200-Day EMA) because high possibility of its testing after Head and Shoulders like Bearish pattern confirmation.
2- 5548.35 because minimum whole Sub Wave-5 will retrace.

Most depressed sentiment today and last hope for Bulls is Union Budget on 28-02-2013.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.79

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.77

Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Feb-2013): 17.38

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   724 

BSE Declines : 2,136  

NSE Advances :   273

NSE Declines : 1,266

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600  CE(Feb)- 6,700(2.69%)

Nifty- 5600  PE(Feb)- 348,400(6.29%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- 483,250(121.21%)

Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -150,500(-2.71%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 2,227,100(117.45%)

Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- -742,050(-10.44%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 1,261,250(18.87%)

Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -1,278,100(-26.69%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,015.14(-316.55 Points & -1.64%)

Nifty- closed at 5,761.35(-93.40 Points & -1.60%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 7,718.40(-143.80 Points & -1.83%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,316.30(-75.05 Points & -2.21%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 26-Feb-2013 3150.24 3075.56 74.68

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 26-Feb-2013 1213.8 1374.41 -160.61

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 26-Feb-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5906

R2 5872

R1 5816

Avg 5782

S1 5726

S2 5692

S3 5636

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6  5851    Trgt 2 

H5  5830    Trgt 1

H4  5810    Long breakout 

H3  5785    Go Short 

H2  5777

H1  5769

L1  5752

L2  5744

L3  5736    Long 

L4  5711    Short Breakout 

L5  5691    Trgt 1 

L6  5670    Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5901
R2 5869
R1 5818
Avg 5786
S1 5735
S2 5703
S3 5652

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5850     Trgt 2
H5 5831     Trgt 1
H4 5812     Long breakout
H3 5789     Go Short
H2 5782
H1 5774
L1 5759
L2 5751
L3 5744     Long
L4 5721     Short Breakout
L5 5702     Trgt 1
L6 5683     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12145

R2 12074

R1 11961

Avg 11890

S1 11777

S2 11706

S3 11593

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12032     Trgt 2 

H5 11990     Trgt 1

H4 11949     Long breakout 

H3 11898     Go Short 

H2 11881

H1 11864

L1 11831

L2 11814

L3 11797     Long 

L4 11746     Short Breakout 

L5 11705     Trgt 1 

L6 11663     Trgt 2

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Selling Trade

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Sell-Intraday/Positional-SL-5036 & TGT-4956-CMP-5011(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-02-2013)

Sentiment depressed today firstly due to weaker global markets and after that no enthusiastic announcements in Rail Budget therefore down moves continuation after its completion. Although down but no confirmation of 5823 breaking down because today down moves are without intraday selling patterns and lacking required force also.

As technically confirmations through 3 sessions closing below 5823 below or 3% down moves are also required and this filter will be applied now for breaking down confirmations of 5823 because today down moves are due to negative news generated also.