Routine eventless Budget without big proposals and no significant impact therefore market tumbled during and after Budget. Today is 3rd day below 5823 and today again slipped from it as well as going to close below it also therefore confirmations of 5823 breaking down resultant more down moves possibility toward 5548.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook-2(28-02-2013)
As market will react on Budget proposals differently and may be volatile also as well as technical positions reverses in such news based moves therefore next trend confirmations should be finally drawn from forceful break out of 5823 or sustaining it beyond.
Mid-session Outlook(28-02-2013)
Increase of Subsidies and market does not like it therefore emergence of down moves possibilities also and finally sustaining beyond 5823 should be watched after for post Budget market trend.
Post-open Outlook(28-02-2013)
As intraday mixed patterns were seen between 5795-5818 yesterday and fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above it therefore immediate down moves after gap up opening may be for it also. Weakness should not be concluded from today first hour down moves and slipping below 5823 and Stop Loss should be rather longer because volatility may be high today.
Emergence of consolidation indications today therefore development of up moves expectation after Budget.
Emergence of consolidation indications today therefore development of up moves expectation after Budget.
Next Big Trend beyond 5823 after Budget
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Feb-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 5749-5782
2- Mixed Patterns between 5795-5818
3- Whole day actual trading between 5749-5818
As first 3 hours lower levels good consolidations therefore fresh selling is required for sustaining below 5749 but last 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns therefore follow up consolidation is also required for any decisive up move above 5818.
61 previous sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 and most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with Neckline at 5823 within this range. Although its Neckline has already been Broken down on 26-02-2013 but breaking down confirmation is required yet therefore Indian markets are technically well poised to respond and react according to Budget today and finally sustaining beyond Neckline(5823) will give following moves confirmations:-
1- Below 5823 will mean fast 5647/5548
2- Above 5823 will be strong indication of correction correction completion and confirmation will be after valid break out of next multiple resistances up to 6111.
Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2013)
Gap up opening today because strong global cues today morning but market will be quiet before Budget and will be volatile also during Budget speech according to its announcements. As previous 2 sessions closing below Neckline(5823) and today closing below it will mean breaking down confirmation through 3 sessions closing below it but closing above 5823 will also mean indication of strong rally after market and industry favourable Budget.
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1- Consolidation between 5749-5782
2- Mixed Patterns between 5795-5818
3- Whole day actual trading between 5749-5818
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As first 3 hours lower levels good consolidations therefore fresh selling is required for sustaining below 5749 but last 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns therefore follow up consolidation is also required for any decisive up move above 5818.
61 previous sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 and most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with Neckline at 5823 within this range. Although its Neckline has already been Broken down on 26-02-2013 but breaking down confirmation is required yet therefore Indian markets are technically well poised to respond and react according to Budget today and finally sustaining beyond Neckline(5823) will give following moves confirmations:-
1- Below 5823 will mean fast 5647/5548
2- Above 5823 will be strong indication of correction correction completion and confirmation will be after valid break out of next multiple resistances up to 6111.
Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2013)
Gap up opening today because strong global cues today morning but market will be quiet before Budget and will be volatile also during Budget speech according to its announcements. As previous 2 sessions closing below Neckline(5823) and today closing below it will mean breaking down confirmation through 3 sessions closing below it but closing above 5823 will also mean indication of strong rally after market and industry favourable Budget.
Neither Bullish nor Bearish and should be firstly watched sustaining beyond 5823 after Budget for next big trend strong indication
Mid-session Outlook(27-02-2013)
When Nifty was trading in Red near today lower levels then bounce back possibility was told at 10:48 AM today and it was seen also and now Nifty is trading above 5800 as well.
Although I always give range for confirmation of next moves and Trends but can not be given today because news based highly volatile markets and without any base formations.
Firstly validity of yesterday breaking down has to be decided and sustaining beyond 5823 will be watched specially after Budget and then next big trend will be decided accordingly and it should be kept in mind that:-
1- Market is well prepared for big down moves and that will trigger after confirmation of sustaining below 5823.
2- Only big announcements in Budget may save Indian markets from going into Bear grip and strong rally after Budget will be its strong indication as well as confirmation will be after sustaining above crucial Resistances.
Although I always give range for confirmation of next moves and Trends but can not be given today because news based highly volatile markets and without any base formations.
Firstly validity of yesterday breaking down has to be decided and sustaining beyond 5823 will be watched specially after Budget and then next big trend will be decided accordingly and it should be kept in mind that:-
1- Market is well prepared for big down moves and that will trigger after confirmation of sustaining below 5823.
2- Only big announcements in Budget may save Indian markets from going into Bear grip and strong rally after Budget will be its strong indication as well as confirmation will be after sustaining above crucial Resistances.
Post-open Outlook(27-02-2013)
No respite,under performance than Global markets and down moves continuations after positive opening but Budget announcement tomorrow therefore a bounce back possibility can not be ruled out because very short term indicators are Oversold now.
Last hope for Bulls is Union Budget
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Feb-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111.
8- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
9- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013
Neckline of trend reversal Bearish Head and Shoulders broken down today after following negative news:-
1- US markets closed more than 1.55% to 2.22% down on 25-02-2013.
2- Most Asian markets closed near lowest levels with more than 1% down on 26-02-2013.
3- All European markets traded than 1.5%% weak during Indian trading hours.
4- Disappointing Railway Budget because increase in freight rates is bound to push all round inflation in the country.
A big trend reversal through 61 sessions trading range broken down today due to flood most unexpected negative news flow therefore confirmation is required yet through:-
1- 3 Sessions closing below 5823 or
2- 3% Down from 5823.
As today down moves were without as such selling formations therefore above mentioned confirmation is must for testing of following levels:-
1- 5647(200-Day EMA) because high possibility of its testing after Head and Shoulders like Bearish pattern confirmation.
2- 5548.35 because minimum whole Sub Wave-5 will retrace.
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1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111.
8- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
9- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Neckline of trend reversal Bearish Head and Shoulders broken down today after following negative news:-
1- US markets closed more than 1.55% to 2.22% down on 25-02-2013.
2- Most Asian markets closed near lowest levels with more than 1% down on 26-02-2013.
3- All European markets traded than 1.5%% weak during Indian trading hours.
4- Disappointing Railway Budget because increase in freight rates is bound to push all round inflation in the country.
A big trend reversal through 61 sessions trading range broken down today due to flood most unexpected negative news flow therefore confirmation is required yet through:-
1- 3 Sessions closing below 5823 or
2- 3% Down from 5823.
As today down moves were without as such selling formations therefore above mentioned confirmation is must for testing of following levels:-
1- 5647(200-Day EMA) because high possibility of its testing after Head and Shoulders like Bearish pattern confirmation.
2- 5548.35 because minimum whole Sub Wave-5 will retrace.
Most depressed sentiment today and last hope for Bulls is Union Budget on 28-02-2013.
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Feb-2013)
Main features of today trading are as follows
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.79
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.77
Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Feb-2013): 17.38
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 724
BSE Declines : 2,136
NSE Advances : 273
NSE Declines : 1,266
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5600 CE(Feb)- 6,700(2.69%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Feb)- 348,400(6.29%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Feb)- 483,250(121.21%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Feb)- -150,500(-2.71%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Feb)- 2,227,100(117.45%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Feb)- -742,050(-10.44%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Feb)- 1,261,250(18.87%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Feb)- -1,278,100(-26.69%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,015.14(-316.55 Points & -1.64%)
Nifty- closed at 5,761.35(-93.40 Points & -1.60%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,718.40(-143.80 Points & -1.83%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,316.30(-75.05 Points & -2.21%)
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Feb-2013
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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013
R3 5906
R2 5872
R1 5816
Avg 5782
S1 5726
S2 5692
S3 5636
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5851 Trgt 2
H5 5830 Trgt 1
H4 5810 Long breakout
H3 5785 Go Short
H2 5777
H1 5769
L1 5752
L2 5744
L3 5736 Long
L4 5711 Short Breakout
L5 5691 Trgt 1
L6 5670 Trgt 2
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013
R3 5901
R2 5869
R1 5818
Avg 5786
S1 5735
S2 5703
S3 5652
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5850 Trgt 2
H5 5831 Trgt 1
H4 5812 Long breakout
H3 5789 Go Short
H2 5782
H1 5774
L1 5759
L2 5751
L3 5744 Long
L4 5721 Short Breakout
L5 5702 Trgt 1
L6 5683 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013
R3 12145
R2 12074
R1 11961
Avg 11890
S1 11777
S2 11706
S3 11593
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12032 Trgt 2
H5 11990 Trgt 1
H4 11949 Long breakout
H3 11898 Go Short
H2 11881
H1 11864
L1 11831
L2 11814
L3 11797 Long
L4 11746 Short Breakout
L5 11705 Trgt 1
L6 11663 Trgt 2
CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Selling Trade
CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Sell-Intraday/Positional-SL-5036 & TGT-4956-CMP-5011(Lalit39)
Pre-Closing Outlook(26-02-2013)
Sentiment depressed today firstly due to weaker global markets and after that no enthusiastic announcements in Rail Budget therefore down moves continuation after its completion. Although down but no confirmation of 5823 breaking down because today down moves are without intraday selling patterns and lacking required force also.
As technically confirmations through 3 sessions closing below 5823 below or 3% down moves are also required and this filter will be applied now for breaking down confirmations of 5823 because today down moves are due to negative news generated also.
As technically confirmations through 3 sessions closing below 5823 below or 3% down moves are also required and this filter will be applied now for breaking down confirmations of 5823 because today down moves are due to negative news generated also.
Mid-session Outlook(26-02-2013)
Today down moves are due to Global markets weakness therefore Nifty is trading below 61 sessions trading range(5823) for the last 2 hours. As today weakness is negative news based amid most depressing sentiments and not due to previous sessions intraday selling therefore 61 sessions trading range breaking down confirmation is required through sustaining below 5823
Although Nifty slipped and now trading below 5800 but without as such intraday selling patterns formations today therefore sustaining below 5823 has not got confirmations yet.
Although Nifty slipped and now trading below 5800 but without as such intraday selling patterns formations today therefore sustaining below 5823 has not got confirmations yet.
Post-open Outlook(26-02-2013)
Weakness in lines with Asian markets and now hovering around 5823 after slipping below it which is last hope for Bulls and sustaining it beyond should be watched now for deeper correction or Post Budget Rally confirmations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-02-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Feb-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 5840-5857
2- Consolidation between 5825-5845
3- Intraday correction completion after 3 corrective Waves completion.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5825-5876
Lower levels good supports with closing after some slipping from higher levels in last hour but intraday chart is showing 3 corrective ABC waves hence strong indication of intraday correction completion as well. As consolidation was seen yesterday after good consolidation last Friday therefore good indication of up moves preparations and possibly after Budget on 28-02-2013.
Pre-open Outlook(26-02-2013)
US markets tumbled more than 1% yesterday therefore sentiment is weak today morning and all the Asian markets are in Red therefore weak to gap down opening is possible and volatility also can not be ruled out because Rail Budget today. As good consolidations in last 2 sessions therefore up moves possibility after Budget is still alive after follow up consolidations today.
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1- Consolidation between 5840-5857
2- Consolidation between 5825-5845
3- Intraday correction completion after 3 corrective Waves completion.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5825-5876
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Lower levels good supports with closing after some slipping from higher levels in last hour but intraday chart is showing 3 corrective ABC waves hence strong indication of intraday correction completion as well. As consolidation was seen yesterday after good consolidation last Friday therefore good indication of up moves preparations and possibly after Budget on 28-02-2013.
Pre-open Outlook(26-02-2013)
US markets tumbled more than 1% yesterday therefore sentiment is weak today morning and all the Asian markets are in Red therefore weak to gap down opening is possible and volatility also can not be ruled out because Rail Budget today. As good consolidations in last 2 sessions therefore up moves possibility after Budget is still alive after follow up consolidations today.
For next trend confirmations sustaining beyond 5823 should be firstly watched today in depressed sentiment today morning.
Mid-session Outlook-2(25-02-2013)
Although Indian markets closed at the lowest of the day last Friday but we did not posted Bearish views in all 3 previous Outlooks because intraday charts showed consolidation patterns formations last Friday. Today also when Nifty was trading near today lowest then also we did not updated Bearish views at 12:50 PM because intraday patterns are not showing as such selling formations and good recovery with new intraday high formation was seen after that.
Emergence of fresh up moves hopes because intraday supports at lower levels today but good selling at higher levels in last 60 sessions therefore lot of consolidations are required for any decisive up moves and Valid break out of 5823-5873 will be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.
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