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Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Feb-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5883-5900
2- Strong up moves in last 1 hour.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5883-5946

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although strong up moves in last 1 hour today but when Nifty was trading near lower levels then consolidation patterns formation was told at 01:41:00 PM and following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook(19-02-2013):-

1- Although slipping from higher levels today but not showing as such selling formations and emergence of consolidation patterns formation also
2- at present view is not Bearish despite slipping from higher levels.

Although strong up moves in last 1 hour today after lower levels consolodation between 5854-5900 in last 3 sessions but following lines were told on 09-02-2013 in Pre-Budget Rally after Correction Completion:-

"As strong supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore high possibility of correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels"

9 Sessions highest closing today with lower levels good consolidations therefore up moves continuation possibility but complete follow up consolidation is required for sustaining above multiple resistances up to 6111. Next resistance is between 5960-5985 and sustaining above it must for today started up moves continuation confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-Feb-2013


Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6027
R2 5987
R1 5963
Avg 5923
S1 5899
S2 5859
S3 5835

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6003     Trgt 2
H5 5988     Trgt 1
H4 5974     Long breakout
H3 5956     Go Short
H2 5950
H1 5944
L1 5933
L2 5927
L3 5921     Long
L4 5903     Short Breakout
L5 5889     Trgt 1
L6 5874     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6053
R2 6007
R1 5980
Avg 5934
S1 5907
S2 5861
S3 5834

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6026     Trgt 2
H5 6009     Trgt 1
H4 5993     Long breakout
H3 5973     Go Short
H2 5966
H1 5959
L1 5946
L2 5939
L3 5932     Long
L4 5912     Short Breakout
L5 5896     Trgt 1
L6 5879     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12632
R2 12548
R1 12498
Avg 12414
S1 12364
S2 12280
S3 12230

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12583     Trgt 2
H5 12552     Trgt 1
H4 12521     Long breakout
H3 12484     Go Short
H2 12472
H1 12460
L1 12435
L2 12423
L3 12411     Long
L4 12374     Short Breakout
L5 12343     Trgt 1
L6 12312     Trgt 2

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII19-Feb-2013 1641.181822.75-181.57

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII19-Feb-2013 510.75486.0824.67

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut- Intraday/Positional Buying of 19-02-2013-Covering

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-1st Intraday/Positional-Bought on 19-02-2013-Cover and book small profit immediately-CMP-5240(Lalit39)

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Buying Trade

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-BUY-Intraday/Positional-SL-5204 & TGT-5264-CMP-5228(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(19-02-2013)

When Indian markets were in Red and trading near lower levels then following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook(19-02-2013):-

1- Although slipping from higher levels today but not showing as such selling formations and emergence of consolidation patterns formation also
2- at present view is not Bearish despite slipping from higher levels.

As higher levels were selling was seen in previous 2 sessions therefore sustaining above 5911 will be next up trend confirmation and its possibility turned higher also.

Mid-session Outlook(19-02-2013)

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-02-2013)

1- emergence of more down moves possibilities.
2- Previous 2 sessions trading between 5854-5911 with lower levels consolidations and higher levels selling therefore firstly trading will be seen between this range tomorrow

Most time negative zone trading within above mentioned range in first 4 hours trading with more than quarter pct down moves and have proved accuracy of our above predictions.

Although slipping from higher levels today but not showing as such selling formations and emergence of consolidation patterns formarion also therefore policy of wait and watch for confirmations.

Let some more confirmatory signals develop then will be updated accordingly and at present view is not Bearish despite slipping from higher levels.

Valid break out of 5854-5911 should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(19-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Feb-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5903-5911
2- All intraday Up mooves in Bearish Rising Wedge formation.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5881-5911

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Firstly Sideways market before Blasting moves:-

Firstly sideways quiet market preparation before Blasting moves after Union Budget-2013

As was told yesterday same happened today and Whole day narrow range quiet trading was seen between 30 points with more than first 5 hours slow up moves with  Bearish Rising Wedge formation and after that slipping from intraday higher levels. As down moves from intraday higher levels on 15-02-2013 after Bearish Rising Wedge formation and today again higher levels selling therefore emergence of more down moves possibilities. Although Nifty got support between 5854-5872 on 15-02-2013 but follow up selling just above it in previous 2 sessions therefore more down moves can not be ruled out.

Previous 2 sessions trading between 5854-5911 with lower levels consolidations and higher levels selling therefore firstly trading will be seen between this range tomorrow and this range valid break out should be firstly watched now for next moves confirmations. 

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII18-Feb-2013 2159.612016.7142.91

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII18-Feb-2013 668.48779.03-110.55

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.86
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.82
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-Feb-2013): 17.72

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,580
BSE Declines : 1,246 
NSE Advances :   912 
NSE Declines :   603

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -17,050(-6.24%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -459,650(-6.82%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- -69,000(-7.15%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)-  43,200(0.66%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 300,300(6.72%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -276,950(-3.98%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 1,213,000(16.46%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -135,250(-4.42%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19501.08(32.93 Points & 0.17%)
Nifty- closed at 5,898.20(10.80 Points & %)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,971.05(45.85 Points & 0.58%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,438.60(24.65 Points & 0.72%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5946
R2 5928
R1 5913
Avg 5895
S1 5880
S2 5862
S3 5847

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5931     Trgt 2 
H5 5923     Trgt 1
H4 5916     Long breakout 
H3 5907     Go Short 
H2 5904
H1 5901
L1 5894
L2 5891
L3 5888     Long 
L4 5879     Short Breakout 
L5 5872     Trgt 1 
L6 5864     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5959
R2 5940
R1 5922
Avg 5903
S1 5885
S2 5866
S3 5848

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5941     Trgt 2
H5 5932     Trgt 1
H4 5924     Long breakout
H3 5914     Go Short
H2 5910
H1 5907
L1 5900
L2 5897
L3 5893     Long
L4 5883     Short Breakout
L5 5875     Trgt 1
L6 5866     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12495
R2 12463
R1 12419
Avg 12387
S1 12343
S2 12311
S3 12267

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12451     Trgt 2
H5 12433     Trgt 1
H4 12416     Long breakout
H3 12395     Go Short
H2 12388
H1 12381
L1 12368
L2 12361
L3 12354     Long
L4 12333     Short Breakout
L5 12316     Trgt 1
L6 12298     Trgt 2
As Busy therefore next Outlook will be updated tomorrow.

Firstly Sideways market before Blasting moves

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 18 to Feb 22,2013)

Correction is continued and its detailed analysis has already been updated in following Weekly Outlook topic on 09-02-2013


Following conclusive lines were posted in above topic:-

As strong supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore high possibility of correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels and will be certainly considered if intraday charts will start to show consolidations there. Expected that consolidation will start near about 5823 or above it in next week and Pre-Budget Rally will commence after on going correction completion.

Correction continuation in previous week with lower weekly closing at 5853.90 but lower levels consolidation was also seen on 15-02-2013 therefore its intraday charts will be firstly understood:-

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Feb-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 5854-5872
2- Slipping from intraday higher levels after Bearish Rising Wedge formation in last 1 hour.
3- Whole day actual trading between 5854-5897

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Although higher levels Bearish Rising Wedge formation and slipping form intraday higher levels but consolidation patterns formations also between 5854-5872 on 15-02-2013 therefore sustaining beyond 5854-5897 should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for next trend first indication,

Strong supports above 5823 and complete selling pattern are also required for sustaining below 5823 but multiple resistances also between 5908-6111 after higher levels good selling in previous weeks therefore Indian markets are not prepared and complete preparation is required for any side decisive moves.  Although good supports are above 5823 but more slipping toward 5823 can not ruled out during consolidation process also therefore next deeper down moves will be considered only after sustaining below 5823. 

Expected that Nifty will be firstly range bound between 5854-5897 and after that will prepare for next moves between 5823-5908. Sideways market is firstly expected in the coming sessions and above mentioned both ranges should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations. Let market prepare for next trend and intraday charts start to show formation then will be updated accordingly during trading hours in the same manner as being done for the last 3 years.

Firstly sideways quiet market preparation before Blasting moves after Union Budget-2013

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 15-Feb-2013


FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII15-Feb-2013 2738.612491.31247.3

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII15-Feb-2013 797.631043.61-245.98

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Feb-2013)

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.83
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.80
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Feb-2013): 17.70

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,117
BSE Declines : 1,727  
NSE Advances :   609
NSE Declines :   921

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -13,200(-4.61%)
Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -338,450(-4.78%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 7,350(0.77%)
Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- 203,950(3.21%)
30.24
Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 1,036,750(30.24%)
Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -853,200(-10.93%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 1,053,500(16.68%)
Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -399,350(-11.55%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19468.15(-29.03 Points & -0.15%)
Nifty- closed at 5,887.40(-9.55 Points & -0.16%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,925.20(29.85 Points &  0.38%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,413.95(-10.45 Points & -0.31%)