Next Trend Decider 5883-5915

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(12-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5883-5900.
2- 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation.
3- Selling between 5907-5915
4- Whole day actual trading between 5883-5915. 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Just click following topic link and understand Daily Chart analysis:-

Pre-Budget Rally after Correction Completion

32 Points narrow range trading with lower level supports and consolidations and slipping also from higher levels after Bearish Rising Wedge formation and selling as well. As  mixed intraday patterns formations within 5883-5915 today therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched tomorrow for following next decisive moves confirmations:-

1- 38.2%(5895) retracement completed on 08-02-2013 and sustaining below 5883 after follow up selling will mean testing possibility of next support at 5823.

2- Intraday support also seen near about 5895 today and sustaining above 5915 after follow up consolidation will mean Short Term Up moves possibility but on going correction completion confirmation will be above next resistance range(5930-5984).

Valid Break Out of 5883-5915 should be firstly watched tomorrow for next Trend confirmations.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-Feb-2013 3630.49 2634.66 995.83

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-Feb-2013 668.09 1608.99 -940.9

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.

2- Most Indices closed in Red but BANK NIFTY closed in Green.

3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.87

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.83

Nifty P/E Ratio(11-Feb-2013): 17.72

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,222

BSE Declines : 1,616 

NSE Advances :   622

NSE Declines :   897

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -8,150(-2.76%) 

Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -591,600(-10.15%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 106,700(16.28%)

Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- 397,450(6.48%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 432,750(19.40%)

Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -265,200(-3.72%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 319,300(5.73%)

Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -330,600(-8.17%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19517(-24.20 Points & -0.12%)

Nifty- closed at 5,897.85(-5.65 Points & -0.10%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,093.35(-16.10 Points & -0.20%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,495.65(-6.55 Points & -0.19%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5966
R2 5945
R1 5921
Avg 5900
S1 5876
S2 5855
S3 5831

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5942     Trgt 2
H5 5931     Trgt 1
H4 5921     Long breakout
H3 5909     Go Short
H2 5905
H1 5901
L1 5892
L2 5888
L3 5884     Long
L4 5872     Short Breakout
L5 5862     Trgt 1
L6 5851     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5969

R2 5953

R1 5937

Avg 5921

S1 5905

S2 5889

S3 5873

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5953     Trgt 2 

H5 5945     Trgt 1

H4 5938     Long breakout 

H3 5929     Go Short 

H2 5926

H1 5923

L1 5918

L2 5915

L3 5912     Long 

L4 5903     Short Breakout 

L5 5896     Trgt 1 

L6 5888     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12533

R2 12476

R1 12432

Avg 12375

S1 12331

S2 12274

S3 12230

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12489     Trgt 2 

H5 12466     Trgt 1

H4 12443     Long breakout 

H3 12415     Go Short 

H2 12406

H1 12397

L1 12378

L2 12369

L3 12360     Long 

L4 12332     Short Breakout 

L5 12309     Trgt 1 

L6 12286     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-4(11-02-2013)

First 4 hours consolidation patterns and last 1 hour Bearish Rising Wedge formation therefore mixed intraday patterns formations and today trading range(5883-5915) valid break out shold be firstly watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations. 

Mid-session Outlook-3(11-02-2013)

4 hours trading between 5883-5910 with lower levels supports and  consolidations patterns but  complete consolidations is required for any decisive up move because multiple resistances at higher levels. As supports and consolidations seen near about 38.2% retracement level(5895) today therefore Short Term up moves expectations turned alive but firstly sustaining above 5910(today trading range high) and after that 5984(resistance) is must for any decisive up move confirmation. As correction is already on and fresh selling will mean fast down moves toward next 50.0% retracement level(5829).
   

For next move confirmation firstly valid break out of 5883-5910 should be watched. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(11-02-2013)

As intraday supports with consolidations patterns indications near about 38.2% retracement level(5895) therefore up moves expectations turned alive from here but complete consolidations is required because multiple resistances at higher levels and sustaining above 5905 will be Short Term Up move confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(11-02-2013)

Although most time negative zone trading with continuous new intraday lows formations but intraday consolidations patterns indications also therefore up moves expectations are still alive.

Post-open Outlook(11-02-2013)

Nifty is hovering around 38.2% retracement level(5895) and follow up positions near it about will tell about correction continuation toward 50.0% retracement level(5829) or up moves after complete consolidations because multiple resistances at higher levels.

Today first hour trading between 5893-5905 with intraday consolidations patterns indications and expected that Nifty will trade some more time near about this range. Let market prepare for next moves then will be updated according to intraday charts formations and it should be kept in mind that down moves will be sharp but up moves will be slow up to 5984.

Pre-open Outlook(11-02-2013)

All the Asian markets are closed today therefore Indian markets will take sentiment from US markets which closed positive last Friday. Short term Indicators are oversold after previous week sharp fall and resistances between 5930-5984 therefore fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above mentioned range and market will take complete time to complete consolidation process.

Pre-Budget Rally after Correction Completion

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 11 to Feb 15,2013)

Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3 continuation(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
5- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
6- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
7- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
8- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
9- Sub Wave-5(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction continuation after Sub Wave-5 completion and its recent bottom formation at 5883.65 on 08-02-2013. Sub-Wave-5 started from 5548 and completed at 6111 and its Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows:-

38.2%- 5895
50.0%- 5829
61.8%- 5763

38.2%(5895) retracement has been completed on 08-02-2013 but closing was above it at 5903.50 and slipping below it will mean testing possibility of next support at 5823 as well as next retracement level at 5829.

As strong supports(5823)are lying near 50 %(5829) retracement levels therefore high possibility of correction completion and up moves beginning from near about these levels and will be certainly considered if intraday charts will start to show consolidations there. Expected that consolidation will start near about 5823 or above it in next week and Pre-Budget Rally will commence after on going correction completion.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 08-Feb-2013

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 08-Feb-2013 4385.02 2894.2 1490.82

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 08-Feb-2013 953.3 1662.66 -709.36

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(08-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX INFRA and CNX IT.

2- Closing at the lowest of the day.

3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.96

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.90

Nifty P/E Ratio(08-Feb-2013): 17.75

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,005

BSE Declines : 1,837 

NSE Advances :   449

NSE Declines : 1,077

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- -6,650(-2.20%)

Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -344,600(-5.58%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 147,200(28.96%)

Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- 736,300(%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 648,450(40.99%)

Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- 1,055,450(17.36%)

Nifty- 6000  CE(Feb)- 885,350(18.89%)

Nifty- 6000  PE(Feb)- -213,400(-5.01%)

Nifty- 6100  CE(Feb)- 268,550(3.61%)

Nifty- 6100  PE(Feb)- -57,150(-3.31%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,484.77(-95.55 Points & -0.49%)

Nifty- closed at 5,903.50(-35.30 Points & -0.59%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,109.45(-62.35 Points & -0.76%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at  3,502.20(-32.60 Points & -0.92%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6013
R2 5983
R1 5943
Avg 5913
S1 5873
S2 5843
S3 5803

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5973     Trgt 2
H5 5957     Trgt 1
H4 5941     Long breakout
H3 5922     Go Short
H2 5915
H1 5909
L1 5896
L2 5890
L3 5883     Long
L4 5864     Short Breakout
L5 5848     Trgt 1
L6 5832     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 6035

R2 6004

R1 5962

Avg 5931

S1 5889

S2 5858

S3 5816

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5994     Trgt 2 

H5 5977     Trgt 1

H4 5961     Long breakout 

H3 5941     Go Short 

H2 5934

H1 5927

L1 5914

L2 5907

L3 5900     Long 

L4 5880     Short Breakout 

L5 5864     Trgt 1 

L6 5847     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12567
R2 12508
R1 12428
Avg 12369
S1 12289
S2 12230
S3 12150

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12487     Trgt 2
H5 12455     Trgt 1
H4 12424     Long breakout
H3 12386     Go Short
H2 12373
H1 12360
L1 12335
L2 12322
L3 12309     Long
L4 12271     Short Breakout
L5 12240     Trgt 1
L6 12208     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 11 to Feb 15,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6156

R2 6097

R1 6000

Avg 5941

S1 5844

S2 5785

S3 5688

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6059     Trgt 2 

H5 6024     Trgt 1

H4 5988     Long breakout 

H3 5945     Go Short 

H2 5931

H1 5917

L1 5888

L2 5874

L3 5860     Long 

L4 5817     Short Breakout 

L5 5781     Trgt 1 

L6 5746     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Feb 11 to Feb 15,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 13065

R2 12894

R1 12587

Avg 12416

S1 12109

S2 11938

S3 11631

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12759     Trgt 2 

H5 12651     Trgt 1

H4 12542     Long breakout 

H3 12411     Go Short 

H2 12367

H1 12323

L1 12236

L2 12192

L3 12148     Long 

L4 12017     Short Breakout 

L5 11908     Trgt 1 

L6 11800     Trgt 2