NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Positional Bought on 28-01-2013-Credit Policy today,Market will be volatile.Hold and cover after my covering message(Lalit39)
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Down Moves after RBI Credit Policy
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(29-01-2013)
(29-01-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2013):-
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1- Selling between 6080-6086
2- Selling between 6076-6082 with lowr top Bearish pattern formation.
3- Support between 6062-6070
3- Whole day actual trading between 6062-6086
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Whole day 24 points narrow range trading with good selling at higher levels and lower levels supports also. Previous resistance was between 6068-6100 and follow up selling seen between this range today also and resistance becomes stronger therefore expected that Indian markets will move down tomorrow despite whatsoever RBI Credit Policy.
As lower levels supports also seen today therefore following range valid break out will be next moves confirmation and precautionary should also be watched tomorrow.
6062-6100
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(28-Jan-2013)
1- Benchmark Indices closed absolutely flat.
2- Sideways markets on the eve of RBI Credit Policy.
3- Doji Candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-Jan-2013): 18.27
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances :
BSE Declines :
NSE Advances :
NSE Declines :
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -31,000(-5.12%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- -54,450(-1.30%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -20,800(-2.47%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -194,250(-2.40%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -34,350(-3.22%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- -93,150(-1.19%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -201,250(-5.26%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 105,950(1.24%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- 513,150(7.65%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 628,700(19.76%)
Nifty- 6200 CE(Jan)- -285,150(-3.00%)
Nifty- 6200 PE(Jan)- 50,600(8.70%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 20103.35(-0.18 Points & 0.00%)
Nifty- closed at 6,074.80(0.15 Points & 0.00%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,378.85(4.40 Points & 0.05%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,659.55(-4.30 Points & -0.12%)
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Jan-2013
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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-01-2013
R3 6114
R2 6101
R1 6087
Avg 6074
S1 6060
S2 6047
S3 6033
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6101 Trgt 2
H5 6094 Trgt 1
H4 6088 Long breakout
H3 6081 Go Short
H2 6078
H1 6076
L1 6071
L2 6069
L3 6066 Long
L4 6059 Short Breakout
L5 6053 Trgt 1
L6 6046 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-01-2013
R3 6119
R2 6105
R1 6091
Avg 6077
S1 6063
S2 6049
S3 6035
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6105 Trgt 2
H5 6098 Trgt 1
H4 6092 Long breakout
H3 6084 Go Short
H2 6082
H1 6079
L1 6074
L2 6071
L3 6069 Long
L4 6061 Short Breakout
L5 6055 Trgt 1
L6 6048 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-01-2013
R3 12949
R2 12887
R1 12834
Avg 12772
S1 12719
S2 12657
S3 12604
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12896 Trgt 2
H5 12870 Trgt 1
H4 12844 Long breakout
H3 12812 Go Short
H2 12802
H1 12791
L1 12770
L2 12759
L3 12749 Long
L4 12717 Short Breakout
L5 12691 Trgt 1
L6 12665 Trgt 2
Mid-session Outlook-2(28-01-2013)
Whole day trading between 6062-6086 with higher levels selling and lower levels supports also therefore following range valid break out will be next moves confirmation and should be watched tomorrow.
Mid-session Outlook(28-01-2013)
As market did not showed strength immediately after opening therefore it was updated also in Post-open Outlook and markets slipped also after intraday selling between 6080-6086. Nifty is trading between resistance range(6068-6100) and follow up selling seen within it today,it is weakness signal. Credit policy tomorrow and Market may be volatile before and after its announcement.
As selling today therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 6100 till then next up move will not be considered.
As selling today therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 6100 till then next up move will not be considered.
Post-open Outlook(28-01-2013)
Almost 2 hours without strength trading between 6076-6086 and until Nifty will not sustain above 6100 till then next up move will not be considered.
Correction On 29th Jan or From 1st Week of Feb 2013
Wishing You All Happy Republic Day
Analysis for Short Term Traders and Long Term Investors
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Correction completion)
3- Wave-1(6338.50 on 05-11-2010)
4- Wave-2(4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
5- Wave-3 is continuation from 20-12-2011
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-3(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-3(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 continuation &its top formation at 6101.30
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Sub Wave-3 0f Wave-3 is on from 4531.15 and its waves structure with technical formations have to be firstly understood because market will react accordingly in the coming week.
Waves Structure of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Sub Wave-3 continuation(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-3 continuation,its recent top is at 6101.30
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after Sub Wave-4 correction completion. As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-3 gained 782.95 points as per theory Sub Wave-5 will gain less than 782.95 point from the bottom of Wave-4(5548.35) therefore Sub Wave-5 maximum target will be less than 6331.30(5548.35+782.95). Previous tops above 6000 are as follows:-
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008.
2- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
As on going Sub Wave-5 rally possible maximum target is near 6331 therefore Triple Top formation may be seen. Expected that Sub Wave-5 will not gain less than 61.8% of Sub Wave-3 gains and Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331.
Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 continuation after Sub Wave-4 correction completion at 5548.35 and its Waves structure is al follows:-
Waves Structure of Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-
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1- Sub Wave-5 coontinuation(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 gained 416.80 points(5965.15 on 11-12-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5(5823.15 on 18-12-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is continued with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.
5- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is on(Top formation at 6101.30 on 22-01-2013 and gained 278.15 points yet) but with
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is on and as per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-1 gained 416.80 points as per theory Sub Wave-3 minimum target is:-
5823.15(Sub Wave-3 started)+416.80(Sub Wave-1 gained)=6239.95 is minimum target of ongoing Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 but its continuation with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(25-Jan-2013):-
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1- 20 Day EMA is at- 6606
2- 55 Day EMA is at- 5890
3- 200 Day EMA is at- 5577
Nifty is trading well above 55 and 200 Day EMA therefore Long and Intermediate term trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways between 6000-6100 for the last 9 sessions. As Nifty is trading near the upper Band of Bollinger Band for the last 18 sessions therefore indicating down moves possibility to test Lower bend.
Sub Wave-5 is moving up while 4 indicators are moving down therefore Negative Divergence is clearly visible in EOD charts. It is strong indication of loosing strength and deeper correction possibility. As negative divergence in whole Sub Wave-5 therefore possibility of its complete retracement after beginning of correction.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 15 to Jan 25,2013):-
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1- Support between 6000-6020.
2- Support between 6020-6033
3- Resistance between 6068-6100
4- 9 Sessions actual trading between 6000-6100
Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis
9 Sessions sideways market between 6000-6100 with good supports at lower levels and equally good resistances at higher levels as well as volatility also seen.
As technical positions are not one sided at this moment therefore firstly trading will be seen within this range valid break out of this range will decide next immediate trend.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jan-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 6014-6033
2- Up moves in Rising Channel with Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6014-6080
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day good up moves after lower levels consolidations but between Rising Channel with Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it therefore no immediate rally confirmation despite closing near higher levels of the day and follow up selling in the beginning of next week will mean fast retracement of whole intraday up move of 25-01-2013.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Intermediate to Long Term Outlook for Investors
Wave-2 completed at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011 after 13 Months low formation and correction completion as well as since then Wave-3 continuation and recent top formation exactly after 13 months at 6101.30 on 22-01-2013. As 13 is a Fibonacci Number and financial markets are tend to reverse and form new trend at or near about Fibonacci Numbers therefore possibility of rally top formation within on going 13th month(upto 20-02-2013) should be kept in mind.
Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331 and ongoing Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 minimum target is at 6239.95 but its continuation is with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it also therefore possibility of market prepataion for correction. Indicators on daily charts are showing negative divergence which means that market is loosing strength. As upmoves are without force and lacking momentum therefore telling for rally reaching near targets and correction beginning possibility. Minimum target of onging Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is at 6239.95 and Sub Wave-5 maximum target is at 6331 and 2 more waves(Sub Wave-4 of Sub Wave-5 and Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-5) formations is left therefore following possibilities should be kept in mond:-
1- On going Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 completion between 6239.95-6331.
2- Sub Wave-4 of Sub Wave-5 correction
3- Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-5 continuation toward maximum 6331.
As correction will start from any level between 6239.95-6331 and Sub Wave-5 maximum target is at 6331 therefore double top formation and high possibility of that Sub Wave-3 correction which started from 4770.35 on 04-06-2012. Let correction beginning confirmation come then its levels will be updated.
On going Wave-3 started from 4531.15 and according to Elliot Wave theory its minimum target is at 8616.90 and next rally will restart after above mentioned expected correction completion above 5629.95. Just click following topic link and understand its calculation:-
Short Term Outlook for Traders
Market will react on RBI Credit policy on 29-01-2013 and prepare for next Deravative month upto 31-01-2013. As Union Budget in next month therefore Indian markets will prepare for it also in next month. Negative Divergence in Daily charts therefore possibility of correction and market is preparing for correction also because Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation also seen in EOD Charts.
Technically correction will start from any level between 6239.95-6331 but 9 Sessions sideways market between 6000-6100 with good supports at lower levels and equally good resistances at higher levels as well as highly volatile market in previous week which is Bear market indication therefore Indian markets are well prepared for correction and RBI Credit policy will decide for correction beginning from 29 Jan or 1st week of Feb 3013.
Although good up moves last Friday but with Bearish formations also and next resistances are between 6068-6100 therefore Nifty will hover around this range next couple of sessions before RBI Credit policy and prepare for next moves. Sharp moves are expected after RBI Credit policy and valid Break out of 6068-6100 will mean:-
1- Below 6068 will mean immediate deeper correction and market is prepare for it also through negative divergence and Bearish formations in EOD Charts.
2- Above 6100 will mean firstly up moves toward 6239.95-6331 and after that deeper correction from 1st week of Feb 3013.
Let market prepare for post RBI Credit policy moves then We shall update in Mid-session Outlooks next moves possibility after RBI Credit policy according to formations of next Monday intraday charts.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Jan-2013)
1- All the Indices closed in Green.
2- Closing near higher levels after strong recovery from lower levels.
3- Long White Candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.06
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Jan-2013): 18.28
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,639
BSE Declines : 1,250
NSE Advances : 882
NSE Declines : 558
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -16,900(-2.71%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- 47,600(1.15%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -36,900(-4.21%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -369,700(-4.37%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -235,450(-18.09%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 6,150(0.08%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -769,750(-16.76%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 1,772,100(26.09%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -1,702,900(-20.24%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 642,800(25.32%)
Nifty- 6200 CE(Jan)- -206,950(-2.13%)
Nifty- 6200 PE(Jan)- 9,450(1.65%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 20,103.53(179.75 Points & 0.90%)
Nifty- closed at 6,074.65(55.30 Points & 0.92%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,374.45(168.50 Points & 2.05%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,663.85(45.80 Points & 1.27%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013
R3 6164
R2 6122
R1 6098
Avg 6056
S1 6032
S2 5990
S3 5966
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6140 Trgt 2
H5 6125 Trgt 1
H4 6110 Long breakout
H3 6092 Go Short
H2 6086
H1 6080
L1 6067
L2 6061
L3 6055 Long
L4 6037 Short Breakout
L5 6022 Trgt 1
L6 6007 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013
R3 6166
R2 6124
R1 6098
Avg 6056
S1 6030
S2 5988
S3 5962
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6141 Trgt 2
H5 6126 Trgt 1
H4 6110 Long breakout
H3 6091 Go Short
H2 6085
H1 6079
L1 6066
L2 6060
L3 6054 Long
L4 6035 Short Breakout
L5 6019 Trgt 1
L6 6004 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013
R3 12971
R2 12853
R1 12781
Avg 12663
S1 12591
S2 12473
S3 12401
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 12901 Trgt 2
H5 12857 Trgt 1
H4 12813 Long breakout
H3 12761 Go Short
H2 12743
H1 12726
L1 12691
L2 12674
L3 12656 Long
L4 12604 Short Breakout
L5 12560 Trgt 1
L6 12516 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)
R3 6207
R2 6154
R1 6114
Avg 6061
S1 6021
S2 5968
S3 5928
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 6168 Trgt 2
H5 6146 Trgt 1
H4 6125 Long breakout
H3 6099 Go Short
H2 6091
H1 6082
L1 6065
L2 6056
L3 6048 Long
L4 6022 Short Breakout
L5 6001 Trgt 1
L6 5979 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)
R3 13031
R2 12890
R1 12791
Avg 12650
S1 12551
S2 12410
S3 12311
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 12936 Trgt 2
H5 12880 Trgt 1
H4 12825 Long breakout
H3 12759 Go Short
H2 12737
H1 12715
L1 12671
L2 12649
L3 12627 Long
L4 12561 Short Breakout
L5 12505 Trgt 1
L6 12449 Trgt 2
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