Lower top formation at 6041 with minor intraday selling between 6035-6041 and emergence of more down moves possibility toward 6019 and below.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook(16-01-2013)
This fact should be kept in mind that only skirmish will be seen and no possibility of any big war between India and Pakistan as well as expected that things will be normal within 2/3 weeks but sentiment turns weak and market reacts in very Short Term. As mounting of tension on Indo-Pak Border again today therefore cautious view was updated in Pre-open Outlook today and yesterday range(6019-6068) was given for next moves confirmations,
Confirm intraday selling between 6050-6055 today but Consolidation seen between 6019-6033 yesterday and more intraday selling is required for slipping below 6019 and sustaining beyond 6019-6033 should be firstly watched now for:-
1- Rentering into previous 9 sessions range(5950-6026) below 6019 after follow up selling or
2- Rally continuation above 6055/6068 after follow up consolidations.
Confirm intraday selling between 6050-6055 today but Consolidation seen between 6019-6033 yesterday and more intraday selling is required for slipping below 6019 and sustaining beyond 6019-6033 should be firstly watched now for:-
1- Rentering into previous 9 sessions range(5950-6026) below 6019 after follow up selling or
2- Rally continuation above 6055/6068 after follow up consolidations.
Post-open Outlook(16-01-2013)
As cooling down of rate cut expectations later this month after RBI Governor Subbarao statement that inflation still high therefore Banknifty is more than .50% down and sentiment is also depressed due escalation of firing on Indo-Pak Border resultant weak Indian markets today. Intraday charts are showing intraday selling patterns between 6050-6055 today therefore firstly more down moves are expected within yesterday trading range(6019-6068).
Pre-open Outlook(16-01-2013)
Although some Asian markets are positive but both major Indices(Nikkei and Hang Sang) are in Red as well as Nikkei is more than 1.75% down therefore sentiment is weak today morning and negative opening will be seen in Indian markets. Although good recovery seen from lower levels yesterday but intraday selling and mixed patterns were also seen therefore follow up consolidation is required for decisive up moves above yesterday high.
As per our view some stream is still left and more up moves are also expected in the coming sessions but view is cautious today because fresh cross Border firing news from Indo-Pak Border. Nifty will firstly trade between yesterday range(6019-6068) and prepare for next moves,follow up moves and its valid break out will also be watched.
As per our view some stream is still left and more up moves are also expected in the coming sessions but view is cautious today because fresh cross Border firing news from Indo-Pak Border. Nifty will firstly trade between yesterday range(6019-6068) and prepare for next moves,follow up moves and its valid break out will also be watched.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-01-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jan-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 6019-6033
2- Selling patterns between 6035-6039
3- Mixed Patterns between 60346-6068
4- Whole day actual trading between 6019-6068
Although lower levels consolidations patterns between 6019-6033 but just above selling patterns also seen between 6035-6039 during almost first 5 hours. As market consolidate also at higher levels in Bull markets therefore sharp surge after 02:00 PM and rest more than 1 hour trading with mixed patterns between 60346-6068.
The abstract sums up of today trading is rally continuation despite mixed intraday patterns and it is very much common also in Bullish rallies. Following 2 targets were updated in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing on 13-01-2013:-
1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 minimum and maximum targets are between 6031-6331.
2- Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is on and its minimum target is 6239.95.
It must be kept in mind that on going Sub Wave-5 which started from 5548.35 on 20-11-2012 is showing Negative Divergence and expected that whole up move of this wave will be corrected after reversal of on going rally.(its detailed analysis has alrready been updated in above mentioned topic).
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 6019-6033
2- Selling patterns between 6035-6039
3- Mixed Patterns between 60346-6068
4- Whole day actual trading between 6019-6068
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although lower levels consolidations patterns between 6019-6033 but just above selling patterns also seen between 6035-6039 during almost first 5 hours. As market consolidate also at higher levels in Bull markets therefore sharp surge after 02:00 PM and rest more than 1 hour trading with mixed patterns between 60346-6068.
The abstract sums up of today trading is rally continuation despite mixed intraday patterns and it is very much common also in Bullish rallies. Following 2 targets were updated in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing on 13-01-2013:-
1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 minimum and maximum targets are between 6031-6331.
2- Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is on and its minimum target is 6239.95.
It must be kept in mind that on going Sub Wave-5 which started from 5548.35 on 20-11-2012 is showing Negative Divergence and expected that whole up move of this wave will be corrected after reversal of on going rally.(its detailed analysis has alrready been updated in above mentioned topic).
Although Wave-3 correction will start between 6031-6331 but before that complete selling patterns are required in intraday and minimum on Daily charts,until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered. As no such development yet therefore rally continuation will be seen in the coming sessions but with intraday to very short term corrections also.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Jan-2013)
1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green but CNX Smallcap closed in Red.
2- Market surged after 4 hours sideways moves.
3- White Candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.95
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.89
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Jan-2013): 18.15
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,342
BSE Declines : 1,550
NSE Advances : 706
NSE Declines : 728
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -9,550(-1.01%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- 322,550(4.43%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -376,200(-18.46%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 250,000(3.07%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -102,850(-2.38%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 1,451,550(25.78%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -275,450(-4.53%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 118,700(5.58%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,986.82(80.41 Points & 0.40%)
Nifty- closed at 6,056.60(32.55 Points & 0.54%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,684.25(19.70 Points & 0.23%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,848.10(-6.80 Points & -0.18%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2013
R3 6126
R2 6097
R1 6076
Avg 6047
S1 6026
S2 5997
S3 5976
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6106 Trgt 2
H5 6094 Trgt 1
H4 6083 Long breakout
H3 6069 Go Short
H2 6065
H1 6060
L1 6051
L2 6046
L3 6042 Long
L4 6028 Short Breakout
L5 6017 Trgt 1
L6 6005 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2013
R3 6166
R2 6131
R1 6106
Avg 6071
S1 6046
S2 6011
S3 5986
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6141 Trgt 2
H5 6127 Trgt 1
H4 6114 Long breakout
H3 6097 Go Short
H2 6092
H1 6086
L1 6075
L2 6070
L3 6064 Long
L4 6048 Short Breakout
L5 6034 Trgt 1
L6 6020 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2013
R3 13205
R2 13090
R1 13000
Avg 12885
S1 12795
S2 12680
S3 12590
Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 13117 Trgt 2
H5 13070 Trgt 1
H4 13022 Long breakout
H3 12966 Go Short
H2 12947
H1 12928
L1 12891
L2 12872
L3 12853 Long
L4 12797 Short Breakout
L5 12750 Trgt 1
L6 12702 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(15-01-2013)
Following line was told yesterday in Valid Break Out Confirmation is Must after 2 Sessions High Volatility
1- today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.
2- expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory).
1- today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.
2- expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory).
Rally continuation today after lower levels consolidations as well as last 9 sessions range break out. Complete selling patterns are required in intraday and minimum on Daily charts for any down trend,until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered.
Mid-session Outlook(15-01-2013)
As some profit booking immediately after opening therefore Nifty slipped into Red zone after more than 3 hours positive zone trading and consolidated between 6020-6034. Last 9 sessions range break out confirmation after today intraday consolidation near about 6026 and rally continuation towards minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory).
Post-open Outlook-2(15-01-2013)
Although continuous up moves after low formation at 6025 but without required force therefore emergence of profit booking possibility and confirmation through sustaining above 5026 is must.
Post-open Outlook(15-01-2013)
Immediate slipping after minor gap up opening because weakness in most Asian markets and follow up buying/selling today will decide the fate of of last 9 sessions actual trading range break out above 6026. As more than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 yesterday therefore this range is first support and complete selling is required for its breaking down. As yesterday up moves were due to positive news flow during trading hours also therefore confirmation through sustaining above 5026 is must for strong rally towards minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory).
Valid Break Out Confirmation is Must after 2 Sessions High Volatility
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 11 & Jan 14,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- Whole day down moves due to tension on Indo-Pak Border last Friday.
2- Whole day up moves due to continuous positive news flow today.
1- More than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 today.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5941-6037
8 previous sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down and closing near lowest of the day last Friday due to tension on Indo-Pak Border but Flag meeting between Indo-Pak scheduled for today therefore tension relaxed and sentiment boosted after the positive news of improved December inflation data and positive announcement on GAAR by F.M. therefore closing near the top of the day today. News based high volatility in last 2 sessions and 8 previous sessions range(5950-6026) broken out both sides in following manner:-
1- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down last Friday and closing at 5951 after lowest formation at 5941.
2- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken out today and closing at 6024 after highest formation at 6037.
Although closing near the lowest of the day with closing below the next trend deciding 5965 therefore following line was told in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing yesterday:-
closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched.
As closing well above 5965 today therefore survival of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 and expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory). As more than 5 hours consolidation also between 5979-6007 today therefore today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Whole day down moves due to tension on Indo-Pak Border last Friday.
2- Whole day up moves due to continuous positive news flow today.
1- More than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 today.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5941-6037
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
8 previous sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down and closing near lowest of the day last Friday due to tension on Indo-Pak Border but Flag meeting between Indo-Pak scheduled for today therefore tension relaxed and sentiment boosted after the positive news of improved December inflation data and positive announcement on GAAR by F.M. therefore closing near the top of the day today. News based high volatility in last 2 sessions and 8 previous sessions range(5950-6026) broken out both sides in following manner:-
1- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down last Friday and closing at 5951 after lowest formation at 5941.
2- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken out today and closing at 6024 after highest formation at 6037.
Although closing near the lowest of the day with closing below the next trend deciding 5965 therefore following line was told in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing yesterday:-
closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched.
As closing well above 5965 today therefore survival of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 and expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory). As more than 5 hours consolidation also between 5979-6007 today therefore today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.
As news based highly volatile markets in last 2 sessions and today strong up moves were also on the back of continuous positive news flow therefore valid break out confirmation is must through sustaining beyond last 9 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026)
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-Jan-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(14-Jan-2013)
1- All the Indices closed in Green except CNX PHARMA.
2- Closing at the highest of the day.
3- Long White candle formation.
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.11
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(14-Jan-2013):18.92
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,691
BSE Declines : 1,207
NSE Advances : 884
NSE Declines : 557
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -61,050(-5.91%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -39,550(-0.52%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -201,200(-8.88%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- 1,172,000(15.80%)
Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -963,500(-17.95%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- 1,923,200(50.85%)
Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -400,950(-5.75%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- 220,750(11.70%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 19,906.41(242.77 Points & 1.23%)
Nifty- closed at 6,024.05(72.75 Points & 1.22%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,664.55(120.55 Points & 1.41%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,854.90(53.40 Points & 1.40%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013
R3 6126
R2 6081
R1 6052
Avg 6007
S1 5978
S2 5933
S3 5904
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 6098 Trgt 2
H5 6081 Trgt 1
H4 6064 Long breakout
H3 6044 Go Short
H2 6037
H1 6030
L1 6017
L2 6010
L3 6003 Long
L4 5983 Short Breakout
L5 5966 Trgt 1
L6 5949 Trgt 2
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013
R3 6169
R2 6118
R1 6087
Avg 6036
S1 6005
S2 5954
S3 5923
Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 6139 Trgt 2
H5 6121 Trgt 1
H4 6102 Long breakout
H3 6079 Go Short
H2 6072
H1 6064
L1 6049
L2 6041
L3 6034 Long
L4 6011 Short Breakout
L5 5992 Trgt 1
L6 5974 Trgt 2
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