FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Jan-2013 3565.73 2488.18 1077.55

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Jan-2013 1339.33 2095.17 -755.84

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green but CNX Smallcap closed in Red.
2- Market surged after 4 hours sideways moves.
3- White Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio:  0.95
Total Options Put Call Ratio:  0.89
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Jan-2013): 18.15

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,342
BSE Declines : 1,550
NSE Advances :   706
NSE Declines :   728

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -9,550(-1.01%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- 322,550(4.43%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -376,200(-18.46%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  250,000(3.07%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -102,850(-2.38%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-  1,451,550(25.78%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -275,450(-4.53%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)-  118,700(5.58%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,986.82(80.41 Points & 0.40%)
Nifty- closed at 6,056.60(32.55 Points & 0.54%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,684.25(19.70 Points & 0.23%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,848.10(-6.80 Points & -0.18%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6126
R2 6097
R1 6076
Avg 6047
S1 6026
S2 5997
S3 5976

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6106     Trgt 2
H5 6094     Trgt 1
H4 6083     Long breakout
H3 6069     Go Short
H2 6065
H1 6060
L1 6051
L2 6046
L3 6042     Long
L4 6028     Short Breakout
L5 6017     Trgt 1
L6 6005     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6166
R2 6131
R1 6106
Avg 6071
S1 6046
S2 6011
S3 5986

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6141     Trgt 2
H5 6127     Trgt 1
H4 6114     Long breakout
H3 6097     Go Short
H2 6092
H1 6086
L1 6075
L2 6070
L3 6064     Long
L4 6048     Short Breakout
L5 6034     Trgt 1
L6 6020     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 13205
R2 13090
R1 13000
Avg 12885
S1 12795
S2 12680
S3 12590

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 13117     Trgt 2
H5 13070     Trgt 1
H4 13022     Long breakout
H3 12966     Go Short
H2 12947
H1 12928
L1 12891
L2 12872
L3 12853     Long
L4 12797     Short Breakout
L5 12750     Trgt 1
L6 12702     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(15-01-2013)

Following line was told yesterday in Valid Break Out Confirmation is Must after 2 Sessions High Volatility

1- today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.
2- expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory).

Rally continuation today after lower levels consolidations as well as last 9 sessions range break out. Complete selling patterns are required in intraday and minimum on Daily charts for any down trend,until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered.

Mid-session Outlook(15-01-2013)

As some profit booking immediately after opening therefore Nifty slipped into Red zone after more than 3 hours positive zone trading and consolidated between 6020-6034. Last 9 sessions range break out confirmation after today intraday consolidation near about 6026 and rally continuation towards minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory).

Post-open Outlook-2(15-01-2013)

Although continuous up moves after low formation at 6025 but without required force therefore emergence of profit booking possibility and confirmation through sustaining above 5026 is must.

Post-open Outlook(15-01-2013)

Immediate slipping after minor gap up opening because weakness in most Asian markets and follow up buying/selling today will decide the fate of of last 9 sessions actual trading range break out above 6026. As more than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 yesterday therefore this range is first support and complete selling is required for its breaking down. As yesterday up moves were due to positive news flow during trading hours also therefore confirmation through sustaining above 5026 is must for strong rally towards minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory). 

Valid Break Out Confirmation is Must after 2 Sessions High Volatility

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 11 & Jan 14,2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Whole day down moves due to tension on Indo-Pak Border last Friday.
2- Whole day up moves due to continuous positive news flow today.
1- More than 5 hours consolidation between 5979-6007 today.
3- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5941-6037

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis

8 previous sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down and closing near lowest of the day last Friday due to tension on Indo-Pak Border but Flag meeting between Indo-Pak scheduled for today therefore tension relaxed and sentiment boosted after the positive news of improved December inflation data and positive announcement on GAAR by F.M. therefore closing near the top of the day today. News based high volatility in last 2 sessions and 8 previous sessions range(5950-6026) broken out both sides in following manner:-

1- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken down last Friday and closing at 5951 after lowest formation at 5941.
2- 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) broken out today and closing at 6024 after highest formation at 6037.

Although closing near the lowest of the day with closing below the next trend deciding 5965 therefore following line was told in Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing yesterday:-

closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched. 

As closing well above 5965 today therefore survival of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 and expectation turned alive for up moves towards its minimum target at 6239.95(as per Elliot Wave theory). As more than 5 hours consolidation also between 5979-6007 today therefore today started up moves continuation is expected in the coming session.

As news based highly volatile markets in last 2 sessions and today strong up moves were also on the back of continuous positive news flow therefore valid break out confirmation is must through sustaining beyond last 9 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 14-Jan-2013 3363.98 2752.88 611.1

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 14-Jan-2013 1100.39 2310.94 -1210.55

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 14-Jan-2013

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(14-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green except CNX PHARMA.

2- Closing at the highest of the day.

3- Long White candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.11

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05

Nifty P/E Ratio(14-Jan-2013):18.92

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,691

BSE Declines : 1,207 

NSE Advances :   884

NSE Declines :   557 

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -61,050(-5.91%)

Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -39,550(-0.52%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -201,200(-8.88%)

Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  1,172,000(15.80%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -963,500(-17.95%)

Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-  1,923,200(50.85%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -400,950(-5.75%)

Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)-  220,750(11.70%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,906.41(242.77 Points & 1.23%)

Nifty- closed at 6,024.05(72.75 Points & 1.22%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 8,664.55(120.55 Points & 1.41%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,854.90(53.40 Points & 1.40%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6126
R2 6081
R1 6052
Avg 6007
S1 5978
S2 5933
S3 5904

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6098     Trgt 2
H5 6081     Trgt 1
H4 6064     Long breakout
H3 6044     Go Short
H2 6037
H1 6030
L1 6017
L2 6010
L3 6003     Long
L4 5983     Short Breakout
L5 5966     Trgt 1
L6 5949     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6169
R2 6118
R1 6087
Avg 6036
S1 6005
S2 5954
S3 5923

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  6139    Trgt 2
H5  6121    Trgt 1
H4  6102    Long breakout
H3  6079    Go Short
H2  6072
H1  6064
L1  6049
L2  6041
L3  6034    Long
L4  6011     Short Breakout
L5  5992    Trgt 1
L6  5974    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 13103

R2 12980

R1 12912

Avg 12789

S1 12721

S2 12598

S3 12530

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 13038     Trgt 2 

H5 12994     Trgt 1

H4 12950     Long breakout 

H3 12897     Go Short 

H2 12880

H1 12862

L1 12827

L2 12809

L3 12792     Long 

L4 12739     Short Breakout 

L5 12695     Trgt 1 

L6 12651     Trgt 2

GAAR will be effected from Apr 2016

Mid-session Outlook-2(14-01-2013)

Finance Minister positive announcement of postponing GAAR for 3 years and will be effected from Apr 2016 as well as acceptance of  major proposals of shome committee,it is 2nd positive news after improved December inflation data today and Nifty is trading near 6000 for the last 4 hours.

As intraday consolidation patterns also seen today therefore confirmation of reentering into 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) but more consolidation is required between next resistance range(6000-6026) for crossing and sustaining above 6026. 

Follow up moves and valid break out of 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) will give following confirmations:-

1- Above 6026 will mean up moves toward next target between 6239-6331.
2- Below 5950 will mean correction after Sub Wave-5 achieving its 1st target between 6031-6331 at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013.

Mid-session Outlook(14-01-2013)

As negative news flow from Indo-Pak last Friday therefore whole day down moves and closing below 5965 was seen but today trading into last 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) because sentiment improved due to more than 2.45% up moves in Chinese markets and lower levels recovery in all Asian markets. Sentiment again improved due to improved December inflation data and now trading near 6000,next resistance is between 6000-6026 therefore complete consolidation is required for decisive up moves above 6026..

Reentering into 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) and its valid break out will give next trend confirmation therefore should be firstly watched now.

Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5965

Post-open Outlook(14-01-2013)

As last Friday down moves and closing below most crucial and next trend deciding 5965 was due to negative news of Heavy Firing on LOC and tension escalation with Pakistan therefore following line was told in previous Outlook yesterday:-

closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched. 

As some Asian markets are trading with good gains therefore positive opening in Indian markets and If Nifty sustains above 5965 then market reentering into last 8 sessions sideways trading range(5950-6026) and finally sustaining below 5965 will mean correction beginning after Sub Wave-5 completion at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013. 

Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 14 to Jan 18,2013)

Waves Structure of Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4 completion and Sub Wave-5 coontinuation)
2- 5865.45 on 11-12-2012 (Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 completion and Sub Wave-2 continuation)
3- 5823.15 on 18-12-2012 (Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 completion and Sub Wave-3 continuation)
4- 6042.15 on 07-01-2013 (Top of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5)
5- Closing below Sub Wave-1 top(5865.45) on 11-01-2013

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

As Sub Wave-3 continuation in previous week therefore its minimum  target(as per Elliot Wave theory) of  6239.95 with calculation was updated on 08-01-2013 as well as condition of closing above 5965 was also posted on 07-01-2013. As intraday Bullish patterns formations on 10-01-2013 therefore expectation of rally continuation was told on 10-01-2013 and it was seen also on 11-01-2013 but sentiment turned depressed due to escalation of Indo-Pak cross border firing therefore Indian markets could not sustain at higher levels and closed below 5965 on 11-01-2013. 

As closing below 5965 on 11-01-2013 therefore as per Elliot Wave theory strong indication of failure of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 and emergence of correction possibility as well. Now Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on and when its formation was got confirmation then following topic was posted on 08-12-2012:-

Rally after Short Term Correction

Just click above topic link for detaied analysis and those important features which should be immediately considered are also being reproduced with EOD chart of that day:-

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Dec-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after Sub Wave-4 correction completion with Bullish Flag formation therefore strong up moves will be seen. As per   Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-3 gained 782.95 points as per theory Sub Wave-5 will gain less than 782.95 point from the bottom of Wave-4(5548.35) therefore Sub Wave-5 maximum target will be less than 6331.30(5548.35+782.95). Previous tops above 6000 are as follows:-

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008.
2- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.

As on going Sub Wave-5 rally possible maximum target is near 6331 therefore Triple Top formation may be seen. Expected that Sub Wave-5 will not gain less than 61.8% of Sub Wave-3 gains and Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331.

As on going Sub Wave-5 made a top of 6042.15 on 07-01-2013 and it is above 6031(calculation given above) therefore Sub Wave-5 at 6042.15 can not be ruled out.   

Indicators showing Negative Divergence

Nifty-Daily Indicators Analysis Chart(11-Jan-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions

Sub Wave-5 is moving up while 4 indicators are moving down therefore Negative Divergence is clearly visible in EOD charts and strong possibility of whole Sub Wave-5 correction.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Following possibilities were updated in previous sessions:-

1- Sub Wave-5 minimum and maximum targets between 6031-6331 was given on 08-12-2012.
2- Minimum  target(as per Elliot Wave theory) of 6239.95 with calculation was updated on 08-01-2013 as well as condition of closing above 5965 was also posted on 07-01-2013.

As closing of Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 below 5965 on 11-01-2013 therefore strong indication of  its failure without achieving next target(6239.95) but closing below 5965 was due to most sensitive negative news of tension mounting on LOC therefore sustaining below 5965 should also be firstly watched. If Nifty sustains above 5965 then whole Sub Wave-5 correction will start from any levels between 6239.95-6331 and finally sustaining below 5965 will mean Sub Wave-5 completion at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013.

Sustaining below 5965 in the coming week will mean possibility of whole Sub Wave-5 correction which started from 4770.35 on 04-06-2012 and completed at 6042.15 on 07-01-2013 after gaining 1271.80 points. As correction beginning possibility after Sub Wave-5 achieving its targets at 6042.15(between 6031-6331) therefore deeper correction can not be ruled out. Let correction beginning confirmation come then size of correction,next Levels and crucial supports will be updated.

As on going impulsive View Sub Wave-5 has achieved its 1st target and negative news of Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing also and sentiment has turned dampened as well as view is cautious therefore sustaining beyond 5965 should be firstly watched for the confirmation of last Friday started correction continuation or correction beginning possibility between 6239.95-6331.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-Jan-2013 3507.98 2682.81 825.17

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-Jan-2013 1363.88 1879.95 -516.07