Mid-session Outlook(19-12-2012)

Caution message was immediately updated in 1st hour today after watching under performance of Indian markets and Nifty could not cross today intraday highs as well as continuously formation of new intraday lows. Intraday correction is on and consolidation is required for crossing next resistance.

All trends are up and rally continuation will be seen but today started intraday correction completion confirmation is must before next rally above 5965. Following levels should be firstly watched now:-

1- Next support range(5880-5905)
2- Next resistance range(5935-5965)

Expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves between 5880-5965.

Post-open Outlook-2(19-12-2012)

Sentiment heated today morning due to strong Global cues and positive news(Lok Sabha approving of Companies Bill 2011 and Banking amendment Bill) from Parliament and gap up opening seen but market under performed immediately after opening therefore intraday correction is being seen. As Nifty traded in next resistance range(5935-5965) and some consolidation is also required therefore intraday correction confirmation is must  before next rally above 5965. Following levels should be firstly watched now:-

1- Next support range(5880-5905)
2- Next resistance range(5935-5965)

Expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves between 5880-5965 and some volatile moves may also be seen tomorrow after declaration of Gujarat elections results.

Post-open Outlook(19-12-2012)

Trading between next resistance range(5935-5965) after gap up opening but under performing Global cues today therefore mentioned resistance range has to be firstly watched.

Rally Continuation after correction completion

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Dec-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in intraday chart

1- Panic bottom formation after RBI Credit policy.
2- Consolidation between 5880-5905
3- Whole day actual trading between 5824-5905

Technical Patterns and Formations in intraday chart

As intraday consolidation patterns formations after panic bottom formation seen therefore following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Pre-Closing Outlook(18-12-2012) and being repeated for today market:-

Long term and Intermediate term trends are up and short Term sideways correction going on between 5823-5965 for the last 12 sessions. As correction completion strong indication after panic Bottom formation today therefore now possibility of rally continuation after today short Term correction completion,confirmation will be sustaining above 5920.

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-12-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6008

R2 5956

R1 5926

Avg 5874

S1 5844

S2 5792

S3 5762

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5979     Trgt 2 

H5 5960     Trgt 1

H4 5941     Long breakout 

H3 5918     Go Short 

H2 5910

H1 5903

L1 5888

L2 5880

L3 5873     Long 

L4 5850     Short Breakout 

L5 5831     Trgt 1 

L6 5812     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-12-2012

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 6084

R2 6017

R1 5972

Avg 5905

S1 5860

S2 5793

S3 5748

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6041     Trgt 2 

H5 6016    Trgt 1

H4 5990     Long breakout 

H3 5959     Go Short 

H2 5948

H1 5938

L1 5917

L2 5907

L3 5896     Long 

L4 5865     Short Breakout 

L5 5839     Trgt 1 

L6 5814     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-12-2012

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 13031

R2 12815

R1 12682

Avg 12466

S1 12333

S2 12117

S3 11984

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12906     Trgt 2 

H5 12825     Trgt 1

H4 12744     Long breakout 

H3 12646     Go Short 

H2 12613

H1 12581

L1 12516

L2 12484

L3 12451     Long 

L4 12353     Short Breakout 

L5 12272     Trgt 1 

L6 12191     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(18-12-2012)

Strong recovery after panic bottom completion at 5,823.15 and after that intraday consolidation patterns formations as well. Trading above next 1st resistance(5885) but follow up consolidations are required for sustaining above next crucial resistance(5920)

Long term and Intermediate term trends are up and short Term sideways correction going on between 5823-5965 for the last 12 sessions. As correction completion strong indication after panic Bottom formation today therefore now possibility of rally continuation after today short Term correction completion,confirmation will be sustaining above 5920.

Mid-session Outlook(18-12-2012)

Although down moves seen today but its possibility was told in all the previous 3 Outlooks of yesterday and today. One down move was expected and it was seen today and support of 5839 has also been tested. 

Today news based volatile market with sharp recovery from lower levels also. Nifty is range bound  between 5839-5962 for the last 12 sessions and today support at lower levels. Following resistances should be firstly watched now for next rally after correction completion confirmations:-

1- 5885  
2- 5920

NIFTY-Dec Put Option(5900)-1st Positional BUYing of 17-12-2012-Covering

NIFTY-Dec Put Option(5900)-Positional Bought on 17-12-2012-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP-78(Lalit39)

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(18-12-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Dec-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day down moves with continuous selling.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5850-5885.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Whole day down moves after continuous selling therefore down moves are expected.

Pre-open Outlook(18-12-2012)

Most Asian markets are positive today after good rally in US markets yesterday and positive opening will be seen in Indian markets. As selling yesterday therefore expected that Nifty will firstly hover around yesterday trading range(5850-5886). RBI Credit policy will finally drive Indian markets and up moves will be seen only after any surprising positive announcements otherwise Indian markets are technically prepared for some more down moves.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 17-Dec-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-Dec-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 17-Dec-2012 3551.68 2665 886.68

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 17-Dec-2012 853.94 1544.26 -690.32

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-Dec-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Midcap and Smallcap closed in Green.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.91
Nifty P/E Ratio(17-Dec-2012): 18.18

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,524
BSE Declines : 1,374
NSE Advances :   940
NSE Declines :   784

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Dec)- 178,300(-12.49%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Dec)- 146,750(2.14%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Dec)- 123,700(4.00%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Dec)- 145,350(1.59%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Dec)- 603,200(9.52%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Dec)- -278,600(-4.49%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Dec)- 986,600(8.77%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Dec)- -115,150(-4.14%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,244.42(-72.83 Points & -0.38%)
Nifty- closed at 5,857.90(-21.70 Points & -0.37%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,382.70(20.95 Points & 0.25%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,690.50(22.95 Points & 0.63%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-12-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5914
R2 5900
R1 5878
Avg 5864
S1 5842
S2 5828
S3 5806

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5893     Trgt 2
H5 5884     Trgt 1
H4 5876     Long breakout
H3 5866     Go Short
H2 5863
H1 5860
L1 5853
L2 5850
L3 5847     Long
L4 5837     Short Breakout
L5 5829     Trgt 1
L6 5820     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-12-2012

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5929

R2 5918

R1 5903

Avg 5892

S1 5877

S2 5866

S3 5851

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5915     Trgt 2 

H5 5909     Trgt 1

H4 5903     Long breakout 

H3 5896     Go Short 

H2 5893

H1 5891

L1 5886

L2 5884

L3 5881     Long 

L4 5874     Short Breakout 

L5 5868     Trgt 1 

L6 5862     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-12-2012

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 12594

R2 12563

R1 12526

Avg 12495

S1 12458

S2 12427

S3 12390

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12558     Trgt 2 

H5 12542     Trgt 1

H4 12527     Long breakout 

H3 12508     Go Short 

H2 12502

H1 12496

L1 12483

L2 12477

L3 12471     Long 

L4 12452     Short Breakout 

L5 12437     Trgt 1 

L6 12421     Trgt 2

NIFTY-Dec Put Option-1st Buying of 17-12-2012-Trade

NIFTY-Dec Put Option(5900)-Buy-Positional-SL-39-TGT-84-CMP-58

Mid-session Outlook(17-12-2012)

Resistances development  was clearly  told on 15-12-2012 in "Rally after Follow Up Consolidations"

"resistances development also in last 10 sessions and extreme heated sentiment formations due to positive announcements from Indian Government"

Resistances development with its formation reasons was also clearly told and resultant Red zone trading today.

Intraday selling formations seen between 5880-5885 today and was also updated at 10:38 AM. Nifty could not trade above 5880 after mentioned posting and follow up selling seen today therefore down moves are expected.

Post-open Outlook(17-12-2012)

Intraday selling formations confirmation between 5880-5885 today.

Rally after Follow Up Consolidations

Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Dec-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- 44 Sessions sideways Sub Wave-4 correction between 5549-5815 with Bullish Flag formation.
6- Sub Wave-4 completion at 5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
7- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation.
8- Last 10 sessions sideways trading between 5839-5962

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Sessions Intra Day Chart

(Dec 17 to Dec 21,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 17 to Dec 21,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 10 Sessions intraday charts

1- Support between 5839-5860
2- Resistance between 5932-5962
3- 10 Sessions actual trading between 5839-5962

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation after completion of 44 sessions Sub Wave-4 sideways correction between 5549-5815. Although 44 sessions trading range broken out forcefully on 29-11-2012 but market again turned sideways between 5839-5962 which is just above the top(5815) of Sub Wave-4 sideways trading range.

As Sub Wave-4 corrected with Bullish Flag formation therefore finally strong Sub Wave-5 rally will be seen but follow up consolidation is required to cross last 10 sessions higher levels resistances. As strong supports also developed at lower levels(above 5839) in last 10 sessions therefore expected that finally Sub Wave-5 rally will remain continued after follow up consolidation.

Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves because development of both supports and resistances in last 10 sessions therefore Nifty will firstly trade as well as prepare for next moves between 5839-5962 in the coming week. Expected that finally Sub Wave-5 rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations but valid break out of last 10 sessions range(5839-5962) must be firstly watched for next moves confirmations because resistances development also in last 10 sessions and extreme heated sentiment formations due to positive announcements from Indian Government.