Although negative zone trading for the last 3 hours but emergence of consolidation paterns formations and expectation of small up moves from here.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Post-open Outlook(19-11-2012)
Although most Asian markets in Green and some are more than 1% up also but Indian markets under performing and slipped into Red after Positive opening. Nifty tested next trend decider 5583 but could not sustained above and trading below it now,if sustains below 5583 then steep fall will be expected.
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Nov 19 to Nov 23,2012)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Nov-2012):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Wave-2 completion and Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Wave-3 completion and corrective Wave-3 beginning)
3- Correction in Falling Channel formation.
4- Lower Falling Trend Line testing last Friday.
5- 36 Sessions trading range(5583-5815) broken down last Friday.
Nifty traded sideways between 5583-5815 with following selling ranges and these ranges are next resistances also:-
1- Selling between 5700-5720/5733/5777/5815.
2- Selling between5672-5705.
3- Selling between 5620-5650.
As good selling at higher levels therefore 36 sessions lowest(5583) broken down last Friday but after following negative news flow:-
1- Indian Rupee weakening.
2- Sudden fall in US Futures and European markets.
Although good selling at higher levels but last Friday fall was negative news generated therefore 36 Sessions trading range(5583-5815) broken down confirmation is required through:-
1- 3 Days sustaining below 5583
2- Minimum 3% down moves from the lowest((5583) of the previous trading range.
Minimum 10% deeper correction will be seen after breaking down but confirmation is must and market require complete consolidations for next up moves. Until Nifty will not cross above mentioned multiple resistances till then any up trend will not be considered.
Up moves will be slow while down moves will be fast in the coming week.
Pre-open Outlook(19-11-2012)
Intraday indicators are oversold after last Friday steep fall and Asian markets are also positive today morning therefore sentiment is good and Positive opening will be seen and finally sustaining beyond 5583 should be watched today for next big down moves or any decisive move confirmation.
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Wave-2 completion and Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Wave-3 completion and corrective Wave-3 beginning)
3- Correction in Falling Channel formation.
4- Lower Falling Trend Line testing last Friday.
5- 36 Sessions trading range(5583-5815) broken down last Friday.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Nifty traded sideways between 5583-5815 with following selling ranges and these ranges are next resistances also:-
1- Selling between 5700-5720/5733/5777/5815.
2- Selling between5672-5705.
3- Selling between 5620-5650.
As good selling at higher levels therefore 36 sessions lowest(5583) broken down last Friday but after following negative news flow:-
1- Indian Rupee weakening.
2- Sudden fall in US Futures and European markets.
Although good selling at higher levels but last Friday fall was negative news generated therefore 36 Sessions trading range(5583-5815) broken down confirmation is required through:-
1- 3 Days sustaining below 5583
2- Minimum 3% down moves from the lowest((5583) of the previous trading range.
Minimum 10% deeper correction will be seen after breaking down but confirmation is must and market require complete consolidations for next up moves. Until Nifty will not cross above mentioned multiple resistances till then any up trend will not be considered.
Up moves will be slow while down moves will be fast in the coming week.
Pre-open Outlook(19-11-2012)
Intraday indicators are oversold after last Friday steep fall and Asian markets are also positive today morning therefore sentiment is good and Positive opening will be seen and finally sustaining beyond 5583 should be watched today for next big down moves or any decisive move confirmation.
Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Nov-2012)
1- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX IT.
2- 36 Sessions trading range broken down.
3- Long Blck Candle formation.
Ratios
Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.97
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Nov-2012): 17.50
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,073
BSE Declines : 1,779
NSE Advances : 608
NSE Declines : 1,143
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5400 CE(Nov)- 9,000(0.59%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Nov)- 457,700(7.74%)
Nifty- 5500 CE(Nov)- 1,305,050(162.46%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Nov)- 507,900(7.85%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(Nov)- 867,900(23.77%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Nov)- -900,050(-11.59%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Nov)- 1,267,600(18.57%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Nov)- -582,750(-12.32%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 18309.37(-162.00 Points & -0.88%)
Nifty- closed at 5,574.05(-56.95 Points & -1.01%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,855.45(-84.35 Points & -1.06%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,518.45(-42.30 Points & -1.19%)
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Nov-2012
| ||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-11-2012
R3 5720
R2 5685
R1 5629
PIVOT 5594
S1 5538
S2 5503
S3 5447
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5665 Trgt 2
H5 5644 Trgt 1
H4 5624 Long breakout
H3 5599 Go Short
H2 5590
H1 5582
L1 5565
L2 5557
L3 5548 Long
L4 5523 Short Breakout
L5 5503 Trgt 1
L6 5482 Trgt 2
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-11-2012
R3 5736
R2 5700
R1 5640
PIVOT 5604
S1 5544
S2 5508
S3 5448
Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5676 Trgt 2
H5 5654 Trgt 1
H4 5632 Long breakout
H3 5606 Go Short
H2 5597
H1 5588
L1 5571
L2 5562
L3 5553 Long
L4 5527 Short Breakout
L5 5505 Trgt 1
L6 5483 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-11-2012
R3 11774
R2 11677
R1 11518
PIVOT 11421
S1 11262
S2 11165
S3 11006
Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11616 Trgt 2
H5 11558 Trgt 1
H4 11500 Long breakout
H3 11430 Go Short
H2 11406
H1 11383
L1 11336
L2 11313
L3 11289 Long
L4 11219 Short Breakout
L5 11161 Trgt 1
L6 11103 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 19 to Nov 23,2012)
R3 5835
R2 5777
R1 5675
PIVOT 5617
S1 5515
S2 5457
S3 5355
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 5734 Trgt 2
H5 5698 Trgt 1
H4 5662 Long breakout
H3 5618 Go Short
H2 5603
H1 5588
L1 5559
L2 5544
L3 5530 Long
L4 5486 Short Breakout
L5 5449 Trgt 1
L6 5413 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Nov 19 to Nov 23,2012)
R3 11830
R2 11719
R1 11527
PIVOT 11416
S1 11224
S2 11113
S3 10921
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 11638 Trgt 2
H5 11570 Trgt 1
H4 11501 Long breakout
H3 11418 Go Short
H2 11390
H1 11362
L1 11307
L2 11279
L3 11251 Long
L4 11168 Short Breakout
L5 11099 Trgt 1
L6 11031 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(16-11-2012)
As almost first 2 hours selling between 5636-5646 today therefore follow up consolidation and sustaining above 5646 was must and it was updated Mid-session Outlook-2 today.
As Indian Rupee weakened and now trading above 55.11 against $ as well as all European markets also forcefully down after sharp 60 points fall of Dow's Futures therefore sentiment depressed and Indian markets 36 sessions trading range(5583-5815) broken down
Finally sustaining below 5583 will mean deeper correction in next week.
As Indian Rupee weakened and now trading above 55.11 against $ as well as all European markets also forcefully down after sharp 60 points fall of Dow's Futures therefore sentiment depressed and Indian markets 36 sessions trading range(5583-5815) broken down
Finally sustaining below 5583 will mean deeper correction in next week.
Mid-session Outlook-2(16-11-2012)
Nifty moved above 5646 but without required force and confirmation is required through sustaining it above. Multiple resistances also above 5680 therefore consolidation is must for any decisive up move above it.
As lower levels consolidation,base formation and good supports between 5583-5630 therefore very short term up moves are expected but firstly confirmation is must through sustaining above 5646.
As lower levels consolidation,base formation and good supports between 5583-5630 therefore very short term up moves are expected but firstly confirmation is must through sustaining above 5646.
Mid-session Outlook(16-11-2012)
Nifty traded between 5603-5646 today and yesterday. Technical positions within this range are as follows:-
1- Supports between 5603-5615 yesterday.
2- Resistance between 5636-5646 today.
As supports between 5583-5615 also therefore next trends confirmation range is 5583-5646 for:
1- very short term up trend above 5646 or
2- Deep long term down trend below 5583 but after confirmation.
1- Supports between 5603-5615 yesterday.
2- Resistance between 5636-5646 today.
As supports between 5583-5615 also therefore next trends confirmation range is 5583-5646 for:
1- very short term up trend above 5646 or
2- Deep long term down trend below 5583 but after confirmation.
Post-open Outlook(16-11-2012)
As yesterday intraday charts showed lower levels supports between 5603-5615 with intraday consolidation patterns therefore positive market since opening today. As yesterday supports were between previous support range(5583-5615) therefore supports strengthened near 5600.
Follow up consolidation today and sustaining above 5615 will mean firstly very short term up moves between 36 sessions sideways trading range(5583-5815).
Follow up consolidation today and sustaining above 5615 will mean firstly very short term up moves between 36 sessions sideways trading range(5583-5815).
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-11-2012)
Although US markets closed in Red yesterday but yesterday intraday charts showed lower levels supports and consolidation patterns also therefore positive market is expected today.
Pre-Closing Outlook(15-11-2012)
Intraday supports between previous support range(5583-5615) but selling patterns also seen today. Follow up moves tomorrow and finally sustaining beyond mentioned support range will decide next trend below or within 36 sessions trading range(5583-5815).
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(15-11-2012)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Nov 12 & Nov 13,2012):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling between 5672-5705
2- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5662-5705
35 Sessions sideways market and its detailed analysis have already been updated in Strong Big Moves after final Break Out on 10-11-2012.
Good resistances at higher levels and next supports are between 5583-5615 as well as complete consolidation is required for sustaining above mentioned supports.As intraday selling patterns seen in previous 2 sessions between 5672-5705 therefore more down moves are expected in the coming sessions.
Global cues are also weak today morning therefore testing of above next supports(5583-5615) is possible after gap down opening and sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for next big trend confirmations.
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 5672-5705
2- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5662-5705
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
35 Sessions sideways market and its detailed analysis have already been updated in Strong Big Moves after final Break Out on 10-11-2012.
Good resistances at higher levels and next supports are between 5583-5615 as well as complete consolidation is required for sustaining above mentioned supports.As intraday selling patterns seen in previous 2 sessions between 5672-5705 therefore more down moves are expected in the coming sessions.
Global cues are also weak today morning therefore testing of above next supports(5583-5615) is possible after gap down opening and sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for next big trend confirmations.
Strong Big Moves after final Break Out
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 12 to Nov 16,2012)
Wishing you all very happy and prosperous Diwali
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Nov-2012):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 6335.90 on 08-11-2010(Long term correction begun)
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1 completion(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2 completion(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3 completion(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- 33 Sessions sideways correction between 5583-5815.
6- 3 Resistances above 5815
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
On going rally begun on 08-11-2010 from 4531.15 after 13 months long term correction completion. Completion of Wave-3 at 5815.35 on 05-10-2012 and its correction is on through 33 Sessions sideways moves between 5583-5815.
Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(09-Nov-2012):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
8 Day EMA is at- 5704
21 Day EMA is at- 5682
55 Day EMA is at- 5583
200 Day EMA is at- 5357
Indicators Analysis
1- Bollinger Band- Narrow range moves between 5608-5761 and previous week moves near upper band.
2- Slow Stochastic- Signalling short term down moves after %K moving below %D in overbought zone.
3- ADX Indicator- ADX is at 31.93 and indication of beginning of big trend formation.
4- MACD- Both lines are kissing in positive zone and indicating indecision between bulls and bears.
5- ROC and RSI- are hovering around equilibrium line and in positive zone therefore not showing any trend.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
MACD,ROC and RSI are at equilibrium and well prepared for any side clear break out and ADX Indicator is above 25 therefore indicating the beginning of next big trend. Slow Stochastic has given short term downward signal through downward cross over in overbought zone therefore down moves are possible.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct10 to Nov 09,2012):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Most time trading between 5639-5720 in last 20 sessions.
2- False break down after RBI Credit policy on 30-10-2012.
3- False break out after Obama victory on 07-11-2012.
4- Sideways trading between 5583-5777 in last 20 sessions.
5- Sideways trading between 5583-5815 in last 33 sessions.
Conclusions from 20 Sessions intra day chart analysis
33 Sessions sideways market and let its break out get confirmation for next trend formation. Strong break out signal will be cross over of 20 sessions range and final confirmation will be sustaining beyond 33 sessions range.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Long Term Trend is up and intermediate term trend is sideways for the last 33 sessions between 5583-5815 and finally sustaining beyond this range will blast Indian markets towards its break out direction.
Momentum indicators are also very well prepared for any side clear break out through immediate cross overs but Nifty is almost in the middle of previous 33 sessions range therefore following resistances and supports should be firstly watched:-
1- Higher levels strong resistances are between 5700-5720/5733/5777/5815.
2- supports are between 5583-5615.
Next more than 10% strong moves confirmation range is 5583-5815 and its break out should be firstly watched in the coming weeks but false break out/down seen after positive and negative news flow in previous weeks therefore beware of such false signals and get breaking out/down technical confirmation through following 2 filters after cross over of 33 sessions range:-
1- 3 Days sustaining beyond the previous trading range.
2- Minimum 3% up/down moves from the high/low of the previous trading range.
Strong and blasting final conclusive big moves beyond 5583-5815 will be as follows:-
1- Below 5583 will mean deeper Wave-4 correction possibility because Wave-3 correction started after its 5 Sub-Waves completion and Wave-4 may correct 1045 up moves of Wave-3.
2- Above 5815 may mean eruption of impulsive Wave-5 strong rally after Wave-4 correction completion within sideways moves but strong 3 resistance ranges above 5815 also therefore up moves may be slow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)