Mid-session Outlook(17-10-2012)

Narrow range market today betwen 5641-5674 with intraday selling patterns higher levels. As intraday selling within previous support ranges therefore expected that down moves will be seen below 5639.

Post-open Outlook(17-10-2012)

Good opening on the back of positive Global markets but started to slip immediately after opening. Today intraday charts are showing consolidation indications but decisive up moves will be seen after sustaining above 5639 and 5674.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(17-10-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 08 to Oct 16,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 7 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 5700-5720
2- Selling between 5720-5733
3- Consolidation between 5639-5664
4- 7 Sessions trading between 5639-5733 

Conclusions from 7 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

600 Nifty points strong rally in 21 sessions from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 and after that its  correction in last 7 sessions with intraday Consolidation at lower levels and selling at higher levels with violent volatility also within 5639-5733.

Rally above 5733 after correction completion or deeper correction below 5639 will form next decisive trend after break out of last 7 Sessions trading range. As equally good supports at lower levels before today sharp fall therefore deeper correction confirmation is firstly required tomorrow through sustaining below 5639 but sustaining above 5639 will be confirmation of sideways market also.

Following lines were told on 13.10.2012 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Oct 15 to Oct 19,2012) and being repeated for final conclusions:-

final break out of previous 3 weeks actual trading range(5639-5756) should be firstly watched because that will give confirmation to following decisive moves:-

1- Above 5756 will mean rally continuation after completion of sideways correction.
2- Below 5639 will mean deeper correction after 21 sessions 600 Nifty points strong rally.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- All the indices closed in Red except CNX MEDIA.
3- Long Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.86
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Oct-2012): 17.82

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1190
BSE Declines : 1703
NSE Advances :  504
NSE Declines :  962

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- 16,900(1.54%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 463,750(7.67%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- 152,450(6.82%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 389,350(5.06%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- 1,801,600(31.19%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- -495,650(-8.69%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- 1,154,000(12.58%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- -484,500(-25.25%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,577.70(-135.85 Points & -0.73%)
Nifty- closed at 5,648.00(-39.25 Points & -0.69%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,859.30(77.60 Points & -0.98%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,482.40(-9.10 Points & -0.26%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5775

R2 5744

R1 5696

Avg 5665

S1 5617

S2 5586

S3 5538

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5727     Trgt 2 

H5 5709     Trgt 1

H4 5691     Long breakout 

H3 5669     Go Short 

H2 5662

H1 5655

L1 5640

L2 5633

L3 5626     Long 

L4 5604     Short Breakout 

L5 5586     Trgt 1 

L6 5568     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5804

R2 5768

R1 5709

Avg 5673

S1 5614

S2 5578

S3 5519

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5746     Trgt 2 

H5 5724     Trgt 1

H4 5703     Long breakout 

H3 5677     Go Short 

H2 5668

H1 5659

L1 5642

L2 5633

L3 5624     Long 

L4 5598     Short Breakout 

L5 5577     Trgt 1 

L6 5555     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11701

R2 11624

R1 11489

Avg 11412

S1 11277

S2 11200

S3 11065

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11567     Trgt 2 

H5 11519     Trgt 1

H4 11471     Long breakout 

H3 11413     Go Short 

H2 11393

H1 11374

L1 11335

L2 11316

L3 11296     Long 

L4 11238     Short Breakout 

L5 11190     Trgt 1 

L6 11142     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(16-10-2012)

As soon as intraday selling developed then it was updated in today Mid-session Outlook and clearly following line was told:-

"Intraday patterns are showing selling formations between 5702-5712 today"

Sharp fall after higher levels selling and testing of 22 sessions lowest(5639),forceful break down or sustaining it below will mean beginning of deeper correction in the coming sessions. 

Mid-session Outlook-2 (16-10-2012)

Although European markets are trading strong but Asian markets slipped. Indian markets are trading in Red after selling at higher levels today. Previous resistances were between 5700-5733 and today intraday selling seen within this range between 5702-5712 therefore previous resistance has become stronger.

Sideways correction(5639-5756) is continued with both lower levels supports and higher levels selling within following ranges:-

1- strong resistances between 5700-5733
2- Supports between 5653-5664
3- Supports between 5639-5646

Following lines were told on 13.10.2012 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Oct 15 to Oct 19,2012) and being repeated for final conclusions:-

final break out of previous 3 weeks actual trading range(5639-5756) should be firstly watched because that will give confirmation to following decisive moves:-

1- Above 5756 will mean rally continuation after completion of sideways correction.
2- Below 5639 will mean deeper correction after 21 sessions 600 Nifty points strong rally.

Mid-session Outlook(16-10-2012)

Intraday patterns are showing selling formations between 5702-5712 today

Post-open Outlook(16-10-2012)

Today up moves possibilities were projected yesterday and it was seen today, Following lines were also told yesterday in Emergence of Rally continuation hopes after Sideways Correction completion:-

"strong resistances between 5700-5733 and follow up consolidation is must for decisive rally above 5733/5756 after on going correction completion"

Nifty opened gap up within above mentioned strong resistances(5700-5733) but slipped below it because fresh consolidation is required today to cross and sustain above. Although last one hour of intraday down moves but good consolidation yesterday therefore until Nifty will not slip below 5653 till then view will not be bearish,follow up consolidation today will mean rally above 5756 after on going correction completion.

Emergence of Rally continuation hopes after Sideways Correction completion

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5653-5664
2- Consolidation patterns between 5673-5684
3- Whole day acual trading between 5653-5692

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although intraday up moves started after 12:50PM but when Indian markets were trading near the lows of the day then intraday supports getting possibility was updated in Mid-session Outlook today at 11:53AM and following line was told:-

"lower levels supports can not be ruled out today'

Intraday consolidation at lower levels after weak opening and again follow up intraday consolidation patterns were also seen at higher levels today therefore expected that today started up moves will remain continued tomorrow also but strong resistances between 5700-5733 and follow up consolidation is must for decisive rally above 5733/5756 after on going correction completion.

As rally continuation hopes emerged after today good intraday consolidations therefore following lines were told in Pre-Closing Outlook today and being repeated for final conclusions:-

"trading between 5674-5691 for the last 2 hours with intraday consolidation patterns therefore expected that today started up moves will remain continued tomorrow but decisive rally after on going correction completion will get confirmation after sustaining above 5733/5756" 

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Oct-2012 1273.02 1252.86 20.16

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Oct-2012 657.04 742.56 -85.52

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green with minor gains.
2- Good recovery despite increasing Inflation data.
3- Bullish Hammer type White Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Oct-2012): 17.93

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1465
BSE Declines : 1392
NSE Advances :  728
NSE Declines :  714

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- -26,250(-1.16%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 719,350(10.32%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- -60,750(-1.04%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- 202,950(3.69%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 107,450(1.18%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- -108,750(-5.36%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 18,713.55(38.37 Points & 0.21%)
Nifty- closed at 5,687.25(11.20 Points & 0.20%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,936.90(15.40 Points & 0.19%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,491.50(7.95 Points & 0.23%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5745

R2 5719

R1 5703

Avg 5677

S1 5661

S2 5635

S3 5619

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5729     Trgt 2 

H5 5719     Trgt 1

H4 5710     Long breakout 

H3 5698     Go Short 

H2 5694

H1 5690

L1 5683

L2 5679

L3 5675     Long 

L4 5663     Short Breakout 

L5 5654     Trgt 1 

L6 5644     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels


R3 11728
R2 11610
R1 11544
Avg 11426
S1 11360
S2 11242
S3 11176

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11664     Trgt 2
H5 11621     Trgt 1
H4 11579     Long breakout
H3 11528     Go Short
H2 11511
H1 11494
L1 11461
L2 11444
L3 11427     Long
L4 11376     Short Breakout
L5 11334     Trgt 1
L6 11291     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5774
R2 5744
R1 5723
Avg 5693
S1 5672
S2 5642
S3 5621

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5753     Trgt 2
H5 5741     Trgt 1
H4 5730     Long breakout
H3 5716     Go Short
H2 5711
H1 5706
L1 5697
L2 5692
L3 5687     Long
L4 5673     Short Breakout
L5 5662     Trgt 1
L6 5650     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(15-10-2012)

All trends are up were up after 600 Nifty points strong rally in 21 sessions from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 and its side ways correction is being seen for the last 6 sessions between 5640-5733 with higher levels selling and lower levels supports.

Minor up moves seen after intraday supports at lower levels today and Nifty is trading between 5674-5691 for the last 2 hours with intraday consolidation patterns therefore expected that today started up moves will remain continued tomorrow but decisive rally after on going correction completion will get confirmation after sustaining above 5733/5756. 

Mid-session Outlook-2 (15-10-2012)

Dow'Futures was more than 25 points down today morning but now 46 points up after sudden surge. Indian markets also got support at lower levels and not moved down fast even after Inflation increasing negative news today. All the Global markets responded US Futures sharp surge and moved up fast.

Indian markets also runs out of Red zone and now trading in Green after good up moves.  Next strong resistances between 5700-5733 and follow up consolidation is required for sustaining above it. Nifty is range bound between 5640-5733 with higher levels selling and lower levels supports therefore not prepared for any side decisive moves. Let market prepare and if follow up consolidation happen then next rally will be seen after overcoming above mentioned resistance range.

Mid-session Outlook(15-10-2012)

Following lines were told on 13-10-2012 in 3 weeks Bull Bear Tussle with Bearish Like Formation

"As higher levels selling seen on the last day of previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will firstly slip in the beginning of next week"

As was told same happened and Nifty is trading in Red between 5,651.05-5,676.85 since opening today with higher levels selling signals but could not moved down fast after Inflation increasing negative news therefore lower levels supports can not be ruled out today.

Actual trading range of today is 5654-5669 and sustaining it beyond or forceful break out of this range will give next decisive trend first indication.

3 weeks Bull Bear Tussle with Bearish Like Formation

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 15 to Oct 19,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-2 completion and Wave-3 beginning (4770.35 on 04-06-2012)

2- Sub Wave-1 of  Wave-3(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)

3- Sub Wave-2 of  Wave-3(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)

4- Sub Wave-3 of  Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)

5- Sub Wave-4 of  Wave-3(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)

6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on and its top formation at 5815.35 on 05-10-2012

7- Correction in previous week.

8- Weekly Black Candle formation

9- MACD- Given selling signal through MACD line downward intersection of Average line. 

10- Bull Bear Tussle between 5639-5756 in last 3 weeks.
11- Head & Shoulders like formation in last 3 Months EOD Chart.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Impulsive Wave-3 continuation with 600 Nifty points strong rally in 21 sessions from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 and after that its  correction followed in previous week. Nifty traded narrow between 5637-5752 in previous week and on going coorection crucial levels will be decided through Micro Analysis of previous week intraday charts:-

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 5 Sessions Intra Day Chart

(Oct 08 to Oct 12,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 08 to Oct 12,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 5720-5733

2- Supports between 5640-5646 

3- Follow up selling between 5700-5720 on 12-10-2012

4- Actual weekly trading range 5640-5733 

Conclusions from 5 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Nifty traded sideways within 93 points in previous week with higher levels selling and lower levels buying. Firstly selling seen in the beginning of the week between 5720-5733 and after that follow up selling below this range witnessed between 5700-5720 on last Friday.

As both selling and buying in previous week therefore Indian markets are not prepared for any decisive trend and will firstly trade between previous week actual trading range(5640-5733),forceful break out or sustaining beyond this range will be next trend confirmation. 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Very much clear that correction is on and sideways correction seen in previous week between(5640-5733). Nifty slipped within strong support range(5639-5680) after higher levels selling. As Nifty got support at lower levels of this range therefore this support strengthened in previous week but follow up selling also seen below previous selling range(5720-5733) therefore higher levels resistance has also strengthened. 

As MACD has given selling signal through MACD line downward intersection of Average line and Indicators have also shown negative divergence therefore deeper correction possibility is turning higher but both buying and selling between 5640-5733 in previous week therefore firstly Bull-Bear fight will be seen within this range in the beginning of next week. As higher levels selling seen on the last day of previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will firstly slip in the beginning of next week.

Bull Bear Tussle between 5639-5756 in last 3 weeks with Head and Shoulder Bearish like formations on EOD Chart therefore breaking down of this range will certainly give deeper correction but final break out of previous 3 weeks actual trading range(5639-5756) should be firstly watched because that will give confirmation to following decisive moves:-

1- Above 5756 will mean rally continuation after completion of sideways correction.

2- Below 5639 will mean deeper correction after 21 sessions 600 Nifty points strong rally.