Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(10-10-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 08 & Oct 09,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 5720-5733 on 08-10-2012.
2- Selling between  5718-5728 on 09-10-2012.
3- Supports between 5678-5695 on 09-10-2012.
4- Last 2 sessions trading between 5668-5733

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As 21 sessions 600 Nifty points strong rally from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 therefore correction was required and it was seen from last Friday. Intraday selling seen at higher levels in both sessions of this week but lower levels intraday support was also seen  on 09-10-2012.

Nifty retraced upto 5668 in on going correction and slipping below it as well as trading  possibility between next strong support range(5639-5680)also can not be ruled out because higher levels selling in both previous sessions.

If sentiment does ont remain boiling then expected that Nifty will firstly trade between within last 2 sessions range(5668-5733). US markets are now 0.56% to 1.40% down at this moment therefore sentiment may be weak tomorrow morning and trading is possible within next strong support range(5639-5680). Sustaining below 5639 will be deeper correction confirmation and rally beginning confirmation after correction completion will be after sustaining above 5733/ 5756.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 09-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 09-Oct-2012 2327.01 1713.03 613.98

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 09-Oct-2012 697.69 1128.29 -430.6

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(09-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- Most Indiced with marginal gains while CNX FMCG and CNX PHARMA closed more than 1% up.
3- Doji Candle formation on EOD Charts.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Nifty P/E Ratio(09-Oct-2012): 17.98

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1537
BSE Declines : 1343
NSE Advances :  807
NSE Declines :  648

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- 74,000(4.02%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 328,150 (5.38%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- -74,550(-1.79%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)-  298,900(5.94%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 317,850 (4.54%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- 21,150(0.83%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Oct)- 453,150(7.02%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Oct)- -27,950(-3.06%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,704.60(28.60 Points & 0.50%)
Sensex- closed at 18,793.36( 84.38 Points & 0.45% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,935.45(49.55 Points & 0.63%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,514.40(15.20 Points & 0.43%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5780
R2 5754
R1 5729
Avg 5703
S1 5678
S2 5652
S3 5627

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5755     Trgt 2
H5 5743     Trgt 1
H4 5732     Long breakout
H3 5718     Go Short
H2 5713
H1 5708
L1 5699
L2 5694
L3 5689     Long
L4 5675     Short Breakout
L5 5664     Trgt 1
L6 5652     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5814
R2 5785
R1 5754
Avg 5725
S1 5694
S2 5665
S3 5634

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5783     Trgt 2
H5 5769     Trgt 1
H4 5756     Long breakout
H3 5739     Go Short
H2 5734
H1 5728
L1 5717
L2 5712
L3 5706     Long
L4 5690     Short Breakout
L5 5676     Trgt 1
L6 5662     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11902
R2 11791
R1 11644
Avg 11533
S1 11386
S2 11275
S3 11128

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11756     Trgt 2
H5 11697     Trgt 1
H4 11638     Long breakout
H3 11567     Go Short
H2 11544
H1 11520
L1 11473
L2 11449
L3 11426     Long
L4 11355     Short Breakout
L5 11296     Trgt 1
L6 11237     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-10-2012)

Nifty slipped below 5707 but got minor supports also at lower levels between 5678-5685 and again trading near about 5707 . As intraday charts are showing selling formations also between 5718-5728 therefore firstly sustaining above 5678 and then 5728/5733 is must for next up moves.

Whole day sideways trading between 5678-5728 today with both minor selling at higher levels and lower levels supports also. As both intraday trading positions within this range therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within this range tomorrow,sustaining beyond this range will be strong indication of correction continuation or completion.

Mid-session Outlook(09-10-2012)

24 Points sideways trading and preparation for next moves between 4703-4727 since after positive opening today. Nifty is now trading near intra day lows at 5707 and sustaining it below will be first indication of correction continuation as well as should be firstly watched at this moment.

Post-open Outlook(09-10-2012)

Nifty is trading within immediate resistance range(5720-5733) after positive opening and crossing  crossing above 5733 will be first indication of rally continuation after correction completion while confirmation will be after sustaining above 5756.

Sustaining below 5707 will be first indication of correction continuation while deeper correction confirmation will be after sustaining below 5680.

Pre-open Outlook(09-10-2012)

Although some Asian markets are flat but Hangsang and Shanghai Composite are more than 1% up therefore sentiment turned good today morning and resultant Indian markets will open positive and Nifty will trade between following 2 support and resistance ranges today and in the coming sessions as well as prepare for next direction:-

1- Support range- 5639-5680
2- Resistance range- 5720-5756

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(09-10-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5720-5733.
2- Whole day acual trading between 5668-5733

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly more than 3 hours side ways trading between 5715-5733 with intraday selling patterns between 5720-5733 and after that beginning of slow down moves. Nifty got supports between 5707-5730 last Friday and firstly intraday selling between this range before breaking down of next suppport at 5707.

As follow up selliing seen  below 5707 also therefore expected that Nifty will sustain below it and last Friday begun correction will remain continued.

Next strong supports are between 5639-5680 and Nifty traded last 23 minutes within this range. As follow up selling seen above this range therefore expected that Nifty will again trade near about this range finally sustaining beyond this range will give on going correction continuation/completion confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 08-Oct-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 08-Oct-2012 2979.06 2415.22 563.84

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 08-Oct-2012 820.42 1599.03 -778.61

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(08-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red at the lowest of the day.
2- All the Indices closed in Red except CNX PHARMA.
3- Black Candle Formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(08-Oct-2012): 17.94

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1344
BSE Declines : 1562
NSE Advances :  628
NSE Declines :  825

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- 138,400(8.14%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 653,750(12.01%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- 708,800(20.56%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- -444,450(-8.12%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 552,600(8.56%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- -356,600(-12.31%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Oct)- 568,500(9.65%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Oct)- -94,650(-9.40%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,676.00(-70.95 Points & -1.23%)
Sensex- closed at 18,708.98(-229.48 Points & -1.21% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,885.90(-48.50 Points & -0.61%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,499.20(-11.75 Points & -0.33%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5814
R2 5782
R1 5729
Avg 5697
S1 5644
S2 5612
S3 5559

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5761     Trgt 2
H5 5741     Trgt 1
H4 5722     Long breakout
H3 5699     Go Short
H2 5691
H1 5683
L1 5668
L2 5660
L3 5652     Long
L4 5629     Short Breakout
L5 5610     Trgt 1
L6 5590     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5833
R2 5804
R1 5752
Avg 5723
S1 5671
S2 5642
S3 5590

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5782     Trgt 2
H5 5763     Trgt 1
H4 5745     Long breakout
H3 5723     Go Short
H2 5715
H1 5708
L1 5693
L2 5686
L3 5678     Long
L4 5656     Short Breakout
L5 5638     Trgt 1
L6 5619     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11715
R2 11649
R1 11532
Avg 11466
S1 11349
S2 11283
S3 11166

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11598     Trgt 2
H5 11556     Trgt 1
H4 11515     Long breakout
H3 11465     Go Short
H2 11448
H1 11431
L1 11398
L2 11381
L3 11364     Long
L4 11314     Short Breakout
L5 11273     Trgt 1
L6 11231     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(08-10-2012)

First 3 hours negative zone side ways trading between 5715-5730 with intraday selling patterns between 5721-5730 and slow slipping below last Friday intraday support(5707) after opening of European markets.

As selliing below 5707 also seen therefore expected that Nifty will sustain below it and last Friday begun correction will remain continued.

Post-open Outlook(08-10-2012)

As all the Asian markets are in Red and sentiment is weak today morning therefore weaker opening seen in Indian markets and Nifty traded most time between last Friday supports(5707-5730) and today achual trading range is 5720-5733.

Next moves first indication will be from sustaining beyond 5707-5733 with following possibilities:-

1- Sustaining below 5707 will mean high possibility of deeper correction beginning. 
2- Firstly sustaining above 5733 and after that sustaining above 5756 will mean on going rally continuation after narrow range correction completion.

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Oct 08 to Oct 12,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)
5- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
6- Sub Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)
7- Sub Wave-4(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
8- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after correction completion
9- Engulfing Bearish candle fomation on 05-10-2012
10- Impulsive Wave-3 continuation.
11- Overbought MACD.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As sentiment turned heated after 21 sessions 600 Nifty points strong rally from 05-09-2012 to 05-10-2012 therefore minimum intrarday correction was required and it was seen last Friday as well as Engulfing Bearish candle formation also on EOD Charts.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart after 10:06AM (05-Oct-2012):-

Nifty opened after Circuit Filter at 10:06AM and resumed trading from  at 5756 as well as traded most time below 5756 therefore intra Day Chart analysis of post Circuit Filter moves are being given:-

Nifty-Intra Day Chart after 10:06AM (05-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts after 10:06AM:- 

1- Support between 5707-5730
2- Falling Channel between 5726-5749

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly fast up moves after lower circuit opening but could not sustain at higher levels and Nifty traded most time below post lower circuit opening(5756). As Nifty got intraday supports at lower level between 5707-5730 and consolidation formations seen therefore on going rally continuation is expected after intraday correction completion through Circuit Filter led huge panic on 05-10-2012.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and impulsive Wave-3 continuation as well as short term indicators are overbought therefore required correction was seen last Friday. Bullish rally in full force and in such strong up moves sometimes market completes corrections at higher levels or within narrow range moves,until any crucial support will not be broken down decisively till then deeper correction will not be considered. Indicators are overbought and Engulfing Bearish candle formation on 05-10-2012 but deeper correction begins after complete distribution patterns on EOD charts in such Bullish rallies therefore let it happen first then correction will be seen.

Rally is continued and and expected that Nifty will test now next resistance of 5870-5910.Next strong supports are between 5639-5680 and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then deep correction will not be considered.

Bullish rally is on and minimum target of Nifty is at 5869.15,its testing is also expected in the coming weeks but intra day correction with high volatility seen last Friday and technical positions reverses in such confusing sentiments therefore next moves confirmation is firstly required through sustaining beyond 5707-5756.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(05-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Most Indices closed in Red but AUTO,ENERGY,FMCG,MNC & PHARMA Indices sectors closed in Green.
3- Black Candle formation today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.13
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-Oct-2012): 18.17

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1028
BSE Declines : 1849
NSE Advances :  416
NSE Declines : 1061

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- 200,150(13.01%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 50,200(0.90%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- 415,500(13.40%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- 284,000(5.10%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 1,747,000(35.90%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- 159,150(5.62%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Oct)- 1,044,600(20.58%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Oct)- 17,000(1.69%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,746.95(-40.65 Points & -0.70%)
Sensex- closed at 18,938.46(-119.69 Points & -0.63% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,934.40(-73.25 Points & -0.91%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,510.95(-25.35 Points & -0.72%)