Negative Divergence in Indicatiors

Technical Analysis and Research For 04-10-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Without force up moves for the last 7 sessions.
2- Indicators moving down

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Up moves in EOD chart but down moves in indicators therefore negative divergence development and emergence of correction possibility. Momentum turned down after slow up moves in last 7 trading sessions between 5639-5743 and forceful break out of this range will decide next trend but breaking down of 5639 will be deeper correction confirmation because market is prepared for that also.  

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(03-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- Almost whole day positive zone trading.
3- Doji candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Nifty P/E Ratio(03-Oct-2012): 18.11

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1754
BSE Declines : 1173
NSE Advances :  905
NSE Declines :  567

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- -53,200(-2.92%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)- 756,400(17.43%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- 62,900(1.79%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)- 909,950(22.58%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 1,050,750(21.19%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- 159,500(11.89%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,731.25(12.45 Points & 0.22%)
Sensex- closed at 18,869.69(45.78 Points & 0.24% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,975.35(58.50 Points & 0.74%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,518.90(24.40 Points & 0.70%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5772
R2 5757
R1 5744
PIVOT 5729
S1 5716
S2 5701
S3 5688

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5759     Trgt 2
H5 5752     Trgt 1
H4 5746     Long breakout
H3 5738     Go Short
H2 5736
H1 5733
L1 5728
L2 5725
L3 5723     Long
L4 5715     Short Breakout
L5 5709     Trgt 1
L6 5702     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5812
R2 5792
R1 5780
PIVOT 5760
S1 5748
S2 5728
S3 5716

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5800     Trgt 2
H5 5792     Trgt 1
H4 5785    Long breakout
H3 5776     Go Short
H2 5773
H1 5770
L1 5765
L2 5762
L3 5759     Long
L4 5750     Short Breakout
L5 5743     Trgt 1
L6 5735     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 04-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11690
R2 11619
R1 11552
PIVOT 11481
S1 11414
S2 11343
S3 11276

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11623     Trgt 2
H5 11592     Trgt 1
H4 11560     Long breakout
H3 11522     Go Short
H2 11510
H1 11497
L1 11472
L2 11459
L3 11447     Long
L4 11409     Short Breakout
L5 11377     Trgt 1
L6 11346     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook(03-10-2012)

As correction is on and both buying and selling was seen between 5639-5735 in previous week therefore almost following line was told in all the previous 4 days Outlooks:-

Sustaining beyond 5639-5735 should be firstly watched for confirmation of correction continuation or rally beginning after correction completion. 

Nifty crossed 5735 today but could not sustain above and slipped below after forming high at 5,743.25 as well as trading in Red now after more than 3 hours positive zone trading today.

Just click following link and understand Indian markets as well as wait for sustaining beyond 5639-5735 for next moves confirmations. 

5639-5735 For Correction Completion Confirmation

5639-5735 For Correction Completion Confirmation

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Oct-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 28 Points narrow range whole day achual trading between 5694-5722
2- Slow up moves

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day only slow up moves without clear patterns formations in intraday charts therefore unable to indicate next decisive moves. Following lines were told on 30-09-2012 in Minimum target of Nifty at 5869.15 from Elliot Wave Theory:-

1- All trends are up and previous week was corrective after 12 sessions 505 Nifty points strong rally from 05-09-2012 to 21-09-2012,correction was due after such good up moves and it was seen also in previous week but correction was not deep. As many times Bullish completes correction within narrow range moves and Nifty traded also narrow within 96 between 5639-5735 in last week.

2- Lower levels supports and higher levels selling was seen between 5639-5735 in last week

As both intraday buying and selling was seen in previous week therefore follow up decisive trading was also required therefore following lines were told in above mentioned topic:-

"expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within this range(5639-5735)"

Nifty will traded and prepared for next moves within already mentioned range between 5694-5722 on 01-10-2012 but intraday charts did not showed clear patterns formations therefore more preparation is required in intraday charts for decisive moves beyond last 6 sessions trading range(5639-5735)

All trends are up and expected that finally on going rally will remain continued but correction is continued from last 6 sessions and firstly correction completion confirmation is required through sustaining above 5735.

Let market prepare for next moves in the coming sessions and next trend will be decided through coming sessions intraday charts formations.Sustaining beyond 5639-5735 should be firstly watched because that will be next decisive moves confirmation

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 01-Oct-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 01-Oct-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 01-Oct-2012 2104.6 1897.09 207.51

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 01-Oct-2012 866.81 1341.01 -474.2

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(01-Oct-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- All the Indices closed in Green except BANK NIFTY,CNX FINANCE,CNX ENERGY
3- White candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Oct-2012): 18.04

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1771
BSE Declines : 1140
NSE Advances :  944
NSE Declines :  529

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Oct)- -14,150(-0.77%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Oct)-  666,950(18.17%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Oct)- -376,750(-9.69%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Oct)-  323,500(8.73%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Oct)- 724,600(17.11%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Oct)- 258,800(23.89%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,718.80(15.50 Points & 0.27%)
Sensex- closed at 18,823.91(61.17 Points & 0.33% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,916.85(76.30 Points & 0.97%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,494.50(42.85 Points & 1.24%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5756
R2 5739
R1 5728
Avg 5711
S1 5700
S2 5683
S3 5672

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5746     Trgt 2
H5 5739     Trgt 1
H4 5733     Long breakout
H3 5725     Go Short
H2 5723
H1 5720
L1 5715
L2 5712
L3 5710     Long
L4 5702     Short Breakout
L5 5696     Trgt 1
L6 5689     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5810
R2 5784
R1 5769
Avg 5743
S1 5728
S2 5702
S3 5687

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  5795    Trgt 2
H5  5785    Trgt 1
H4  5776    Long breakout
H3  5765    Go Short
H2  5761
H1  5757
L1  5750
L2  5746
L3  5742    Long
L4  5731    Short Breakout
L5  5722    Trgt 1
L6  5712    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11647
R2 11589
R1 11546
Avg 11488
S1 11445
S2 11387
S3 11344

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11605     Trgt 2
H5 11582     Trgt 1
H4 11559     Long breakout
H3 11531     Go Short
H2 11522
H1 11513
L1 11494
L2 11485
L3 11476     Long
L4 11448     Short Breakout
L5 11425     Trgt 1
L6 11402     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(01-10-2012)

Following lines were told on 30-09-2012 in Minimum target of Nifty at 5869.15 from Elliot Wave Theory:-

"Firstly trading and next moves preparation between 5639-5735 in next week and should be firstly watched" 

Nifty traded whole day today between between 5,694.00-5,720.40

Whole day slow up moves and no clear patterns formations in intraday charts to indicate next moves. Let market prepatre then next moves will be decided from intraday charts formations sustaining beyond 5639-5735 will be confirmation of correction continuation or rally beginning after correction completion. 

Minimum target of Nifty at 5869.15 from Elliot Wave Theory

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 01 to Oct 05,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-1-6338.50 completed on 05-11-2010 and Wave-2 started
2- Wave-2-4531.15 completed on 20-12-2011 and Wave-3 started
3- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-3-5629.95 completed on 22-02-2012
4- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-3-4770.35 completed on 04-06-2012
5- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 is on
6- Doji Candle formation in weekly chart.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Impulsive Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 is on toward minimum target at 5869.15 and its minimum target calculations as per Elliot Wave Theory is as follows:-                                          
1- Sub Wave-1 gained 1098.80 points=[(Sub Wave-1)5629.95-(Sub Wave-2)4531.15] 
2- Sub Wave 2 completed at 4770.35
3- Sub Wave-3 is on from 4770.35 and as per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5 therefore it will move minimum 1098.80 points which was gained by Sub Wave-1 and then Sub Wave-3 minimum target will be-
 4- Minimum 5869.15=[4770.35(Sub Wave-3 starting point)+1098.80(Sub Wave-3 gaining minimum points)]

Weekly Outlook(Oct 01 to Oct 05,2012)

All trends are up and previous week was corrective after 12 sessions 505 Nifty points strong rally from 05-09-2012 to 21-09-2012,correction was due after such good up moves and it was seen also in previous week but correction was not deep. As many times Bullish completes correction within narrow range moves and Nifty traded also narrow within 96 between 5639-5735 in last week.

Nifty previous week closing at weekly highs and closing at 52 week high also therefore it may be first indication of correction completion within narrow range moves but  weekly Doji Candle formation in last week and intraday selling at higher levels was also seen last Friday therefore correction completion confirmation is must in the beginning of next week.

Lower levels supports and higher levels selling was seen between 5639-5735 in last week and expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within this range. Although expected that on going Bullish rally will remain continued but ongoing correction completion confirmation is firstly required and that will be after sustaining above previous week highs(5735) because intraday selling was seen just below it.

Firstly trading and next moves preparation between 5639-5735 in next week and should be firstly watched because sustaining it beyond will be confirmation of correction continuation / rally beginning after correction completion. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 28-Sep-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Sep-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 28-Sep-2012 3987.75 2757.4 1230.35

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 28-Sep-2012 1412.26 2091.32 -679.06

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-10-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5783
R2 5759
R1 5731
Avg 5707
S1 5679
S2 5655
S3 5627

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5755     Trgt 2
H5 5743     Trgt 1
H4 5731     Long breakout
H3 5717     Go Short
H2 5712
H1 5707
L1 5698
L2 5693
L3 5688     Long
L4 5674     Short Breakout
L5 5662     Trgt 1
L6 5650     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-10-2012

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5814
R2 5790
R1 5759
Avg 5735
S1 5704
S2 5680
S3 5649

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5784     Trgt 2
H5 5771     Trgt 1
H4 5759     Long breakout
H3 5744     Go Short
H2 5739
H1 5734
L1 5723
L2 5718
L3 5713     Long
L4 5698     Short Breakout
L5 5686     Trgt 1
L6 5673     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-10-2012

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 11700
R2 11650
R1 11581
Avg 11531
S1 11462
S2 11412
S3 11343

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  11632    Trgt 2
H5  11605    Trgt 1
H4  11578    Long breakout
H3  11545    Go Short
H2  11534
H1  11523
L1  11502
L2  11491
L3  11480    Long
L4  11447    Short Breakout
L5  11420    Trgt 1
L6  11393    Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 01 to Oct 05,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5841
R2 5788
R1 5745
Avg 5692
S1 5649
S2 5596
S3 5553

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5800     Trgt 2
H5 5777     Trgt 1
H4 5755     Long breakout
H3 5729     Go Short
H2 5720
H1 5711
L1 5694
L2 5685
L3 5676     Long
L4 5650     Short Breakout
L5 5628    Trgt 1
L6 5605     Trgt 2