Post-open Outlook(26-09-2012)

All the Asian markets were more than .60% down therefore Indian markets opened weak but outperformed and got intraday support at lower level as well as did not sustained below yesterday support of 5653.

Nifty got intraday support between 5653-5670 yesterday and finally sustaining it beyond will decide deeper correction or correction completion after forming today lows under weaket global cues at 5,643.75.

Pre-open Outlook(26-09-2012)

Sentiment will be depressed after triple digits down moves in Dow Jones yesterday therefore expected that Asian markets will open in Red and weak opening also can not be ruled out in Indian markets. Intraday supports were seen between 5653-5670 yesterday and sustaining it below will be deeper correction confirmation because intraday selling was also seen at higher levels in last 3 sessions.

Next supports are as follows:-

1- 5542-5560
1- 5447-5527( Gap of 14-09 2012)

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-09-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 5653-5670
2- Minor selling between 5682-5689
3- Intraday chart patterns are showing consolidations formations.
3- Whole day acual trading between 5653-5702

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Most of the time today trading between 5653-5689 with intraday supports at lower levels and minor selling at higher levels. As today intraday chart of Nifty is showing consolidations formations also therefore correction completion possibility has arisen today.

All trends are up and last 3 sessions trading with higher levels selling and lower levels supports seen between 5653-5705. As Indicators on EOD Charts are overbought and Short term correction is due therefore it is being seen in last 2 sessions also through daily new intraday lows formations. As in Bullish rallies correction complets within narrow range moves therefore this possibility will also be considered because intraday supports at lower levels are also being seen in last 3 sessions.

Next moves preparation range of 5668-5705 was given on 22-09-2012 and Nifty traded as well as prepared for next moves between 5653-5709 in last 2 sessions. Although more selling at higher levels in both previous sessions but lower levels good supports also and intraday consolidation formations seen today therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves near about 5653-5709 tomorrow,sustaining it beyond or forceful break out of this range will be deeper correction or correction completion confirmation and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Sep-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Almost flat closing with marginal gains.
2- All the Indices closed with nominal gains/loss.
3- Doji Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.03
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Aug-2012): 17.94

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1537
BSE Declines : 1346
NSE Advances :  749
NSE Declines :  684

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(Aug)- -46,050(-1.13%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Aug)- -169,350(-2.15%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Aug)- -123,900 (-1.77%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Aug)-  485,400(10.23%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Aug)-  1,316,300(17.23%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Aug)- -209,650(-12.97%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,673.90(4.30 Points & 0.08%)
Sensex- closed at 18,694.41(21.07 Points & 0.11% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,688.95(24.80 Points & 0.32%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,903.15(36.24 Points & 0.53%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Sep-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Sep-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Sep-2012 8586 2740.42 5845.58

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Sep-2012 1058.36 2432.47 -1374.11

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-09-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5749
R2 5725
R1 5699
Avg 5675
S1 5649
S2 5625
S3 5599

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5723     Trgt 2
H5 5711     Trgt 1
H4 5700     Long breakout
H3 5686     Go Short
H2 5682
H1 5677
L1 5668
L2 5663
L3 5659     Long
L4 5645     Short Breakout
L5 5634     Trgt 1
L6 5622     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-09-2012

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5754
R2 5731
R1 5707
Avg 5684
S1 5660
S2 5637
S3 5613

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5730     Trgt 2
H5 5719     Trgt 1
H4 5708     Long breakout
H3 5695     Go Short
H2 5691
H1 5687
L1 5678
L2 5674
L3 5670     Long
L4 5657     Short Breakout
L5 5646     Trgt 1
L6 5635     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-09-2012

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 11738
R2 11632
R1 11538
Avg 11432
S1 11338
S2 11232
S3 11138

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11646     Trgt 2
H5 11600     Trgt 1
H4 11554     Long breakout
H3 11499     Go Short
H2 11480
H1 11462
L1 11425
L2 11407
L3 11389     Long
L4 11334     Short Breakout
L5 11287     Trgt 1
L6 11241     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(25-09-2012)

More than 2 hours trading between 5653-5670 today after slipping below yesterday intraday support(5663) but not sustaining below and up moves seen above 5670. All trends are up and trading between 5653-5705 for the last 3 sessions with higher levels selling and lower levels supports also.

As lower levels supports and higher levels selling again seen today therefore fresh preparation is required for next decisive moves. Finally sustaining beyond 5653-5705 will be next trend confirmation and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(25-09-2012)

Following lines were told yesterday in Emergence of Correction Possibility

"As minor support possibility also seen at lower levels therefore correction beginning will get confirmation after forceful breaking down or sustaining below 5663 in the coming sessions"

Nifty is hovering around 5663 for the last 1 hour and trading between 5655-5670 as well. As sustaining beyond mentioned range will be correction beginning/fresh up moves confirmation therefore should be firstly watched today.

Emergence of Correction Possibility

Technical Analysis and Research For 25-09-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 21 & Sep 24,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling patterns between 5690-5704 in both previous sessions.
2- Intraday Supports also at lower levels in both previous sessions.
3- Down moves without required force on 24-09-2012

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As both selling and lower levels minor support on 21-09-2012 therefore following lines were told on 22-09-2012 in Strong Rally continuation in the form of Impulsive Wave-3:-

1- last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705 but complete distribution patterns are required for correction. Intraday charts are indicating that Nifty will firstly hover around 5668-5705 and prepare for next moves.

Next moves preparation range of 5668-5705 was given on 22-09-2012 and Nifty traded between  5663-5709 today with higher levels selling and lower levels intraday supports possibility.

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bearish Harami Candle formation today.
2- Indicators are overbought.
3- Gap increased in both lines of MACD and indicating down moves to converge.
4- Negative divergence in ROC and RSI.
5- Nifty trading at Upper Band of Bollinger Band.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together) 

All trends are up but short term Indicators are overbought after 12 sessions 505 Nifty points strong rally therefore Short term correction is due and its possibility emerged also after intraday selling patterns in both previous sessions.

As minor support possibility also seen at lower levels therefore correction beginning will get confirmation after forceful breaking down or sustaining below 5663 in the coming sessions.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Sep-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 24-Sep-2012 4500.86 2905.14 1595.72

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 24-Sep-2012 1366.46 2522.91 -1156.45

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(24-Sep-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed with minor loss.
2- Many Indices closed in Red but Midcap and SMLcap closing in Green.
3- Bearish Harami Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Aug-2012): 17.95

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1661
BSE Declines : 1200
NSE Advances :  871
NSE Declines :  578

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Aug)- -590,650(-23.13%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Aug)-  627,550(7.46%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Aug)- -360,400(-8.13%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Aug)-  300,000(3.96%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Aug)-  371,100(5.59%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Aug)-  -63,100(-1.31%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Aug)-  1,557,000(25.60%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Aug)-  355,200(28.17%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,669.60(-21.55 Points & -0.38%)
Sensex- closed at 18,673.34(-79.49 Points & -0.42% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,664.15(13.80 Points & 0.18%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,866.91(57.70 Points & 0.85%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-09-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5745
R2 5727
R1 5698
Avg 5680
S1 5651
S2 5633
S3 5604

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5716     Trgt 2
H5 5705     Trgt 1
H4 5694     Long breakout
H3 5681     Go Short
H2 5677
H1 5673
L1 5664
L2 5660
L3 5656    Long
L4 5643     Short Breakout
L5 5632     Trgt 1
L6 5621     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-09-2012

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5767
R2 5747
R1 5714
Avg 5694
S1 5661
S2 5641
S3 5608

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5734     Trgt 2
H5 5722     Trgt 1
H4 5710     Long breakout
H3 5695     Go Short
H2 5690
H1 5685
L1 5676
L2 5671
L3 5666     Long
L4 5651    Short Breakout
L5 5639     Trgt 1
L6 5627     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-09-2012

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 11689
R2 11614
R1 11518
Avg 11443
S1 11347
S2 11272
S3 11176

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  11593    Trgt 2
H5  11554    Trgt 1
H4  11516    Long breakout
H3  11469    Go Short
H2  11453
H1  11437
L1  11406
L2  11390
L3  11374    Long
L4  11327   Short Breakout
L5  11289    Trgt 1
L6  11250    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(24-09-2012)

Slipping for intraday higher levels after selling but down moves without force and trading between 5,663-5,683 for the last 2 hours. As down moves were without force therefore support at lower levels can not be ruled out today.

Although negative closing will be seen today but correction beginning will get confirmation after sustaining below 5,663

Mid-session Outlook(24-09-2012)

Intraday charts of today are showing selling patterns between 5690-5709

Post-open Outlook(24-09-2012)

Nifty traded last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705 on 21-09-2012 and today also traded 1st hour between this range,as mixed trading patterns therefore preparing for next moves within this arnge. Sustaining beyond this range will give confirmation to:-

1- Rally continuation without Short Term Correction or
2- Rally continuation after minimum Short Term Correction.

Strong Rally continuation in the form of Impulsive Wave-3

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 24 to Sep 28,2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Strong intraday rally
2- Last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705
3- Whole day acual trading between 5600-5720

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly strong rally and after that last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705 but complete distribution patterns are required for correction. Intraday charts are indicating that Nifty will firstly hover around 5668-5705 and prepare for next moves.

Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in Daily charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)
5- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
6- Sub Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)
7- Sub Wave-4(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
8- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after correction completion
9- Impulsive Wave-3 continuation
10- 200-Day SMA at 5163
11- 200-Day EMA at 5227

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and strong rally(Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3) continuation after corrective Sub Wave-4 completion above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA and EMA. As last more than 3 hours range bound moves with intraday mixed patterns between 5668-5705 on 21-09-2012 therefore if sentiment remains calm in the beginning of next week then Nifty will firstly  hover around 5668-5705 and prepare for next moves.

As Short term Indicators are overbought after 12 sessions 505 Nifty points strong rally therefore Short term correction is due and it may be seen also but finally Bullish rally is very much on in the form of Impulsive Wave-3 and its continuation is expected. Complete distribution patterns are required for Intermediate term  correction and until that will not happen till then any big correction will not be considered.