Rally is Very Much On

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Aug 06 to Aug 10,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Aug-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Impulsive Wave-3 continuation after correction completion on 04-06-2012 in the form of Sub Wave-1 which completed at 5348.55 on 10-07-2012 and its correction begun in the form of Sub Wave-2.

Nifty moved below Long Trem Trend decider both 200-Day EMA and 200-Day SMA in correction and got support at 5032.40 on 26-07-2012 but its confirmation was required through sustaining above next immediate resistance between 5200-5250.

As Nifty traded most time between 5200-5250  with lower levels intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore we told many times for final sustaining above 5250 and its live proofs are available in all previous week Outlooks:-

When US and European markets were trading in deep Red  then also we were not Bearish amd told following lines at 07:27:00 PM on 02-08-2012:-

Although US and European markets are in deep Red at this moment but lower levels intraday support seen today therefore sustaining above 5250 possibilities are still alive.

We always projected for rally continuation after sustaining above 5250 and it will be seen today after gap up opening above 5250 and finally sustaining it above. Expected that rally will remain continued above Sub Wave-1 top at 5348.55 in the coming week.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(03-Aug-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- White Candle.
3- Closing near day's high after good support at lower levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Nifty P/E Ratio(03-Aug-2012): 17.03

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1223
BSE Declines : 1568
NSE Advances :  576
NSE Declines :  852

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Aug)- 23,200(1.03%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Aug)- 829,050(8.80%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Aug)- -0000(0.16%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Aug)- 358,050(5.81%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Aug)- 6,700(-00.00%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Aug)- 23,350(0.47%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Aug)- -0000(-00.00%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Aug)- 400,850(18.16%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Aug)- 805,450(17.83%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Aug)- 11,550(1.40%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,215.70(-12.05 Points & -0.23%)
Sensex- closed at 17,197.93(-26.43 Points & -0.15% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,244.90(-11.00 Points & -0.15%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,545.70(-5.09 Points & -0.08%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-08-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5292
R2 5256
R1 5236
Avg 5200
S1 5180
S2 5144
S3 5124

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5272     Trgt 2
H5 5259     Trgt 1
H4 5246     Long breakout
H3 5231     Go Short
H2 5226
H1 5221
L1 5210
L2 5205
L3 5200     Long
L4 5185     Short Breakout
L5 5172     Trgt 1
L6 5159     Trgt 2

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-08-2012

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 5437
R2 5341
R1 5291
Avg 5195
S1 5145
S2 5049
S3 4999

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5391     Trgt 2
H5 5356     Trgt 1
H4 5321    Long breakout
H3 5281     Go Short
H2 5267
H1 5254
L1 5227
L2 5214
L3 5200     Long
L4 5160     Short Breakout
L5 5125     Trgt 1
L6 5090     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-08-2012

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 10596
R2 10502
R1 10443
Avg 10349
S1 10290
S2 10196
S3 10137

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10538     Trgt 2
H5 10503     Trgt 1
H4 10468     Long breakout
H3 10426     Go Short
H2 10412
H1 10398
L1 10369
L2 10355
L3 10341     Long
L4 10299     Short Breakout
L5 10264     Trgt 1
L6 10229     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Aug 06 to Aug 10,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5380
R2 5313
R1 5264
Avg 5197
S1 5148
S2 5081
S3 5032

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5333     Trgt 2
H5 5306     Trgt 1
H4 5279     Long breakout
H3 5247     Go Short
H2 5237
H1 5226
L1 5205
L2 5194
L3 5184     Long
L4 5152     Short Breakout
L5 5125     Trgt 1
L6 5098     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Aug 06 to Aug 10,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10711
R2 10589
R1 10452
Avg 10330
S1 10193
S2 10071
S3 9934

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10576     Trgt 2
H5 10517     Trgt 1
H4 10457     Long breakout
H3 10386     Go Short
H2 10362
H1 10338
L1 10291
L2 10267
L3 10243    Long
L4 10172     Short Breakout
L5 10112     Trgt 1
L6 10053     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 03-Aug-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 03-Aug-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 03-Aug-2012 1508.84 1300.15 208.69

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 03-Aug-2012 804.26 1238.91 -434.65

Pre-Closing Outlook(03-08-2012)

We always try to post only realistic views and telling only for getting confirmations through forceful break out or sustaining beyond 5200-5250 and Nifty is closing between this range for the last 3 sessions. When US and European markets were trading in deep Red yesterday then also we told following lines at 07:27:00 PM yesterday:-

Although US and European markets are in deep Red at this moment but lower levels intraday support seen today therefore sustaining above 5250 possibilities are still alive. Finally  forceful break out or sustaining beyond 5200-5250 will be next trend confirmation and should be firstly watched.

As Indian markets got good support at lower levels and today intraday charts are showing consolidation formations also therefore finally sustaining above 5250 possibility has increased today despite Red closing after whole day negative zone trading today.

Mid-session Outlook-2(03-08-2012)

As Indian markets consolidated also at lower levels in last 2 sessions therefore we did not posted Bearish views despite ECB negative news led crashing Global markets today. We told only for getting confirmations through sustaining beyond 5200-5250 and Nifty did not sustained below 5200 and now trading at 5207 despite most depressing news.

As intraday supports today above Long Term Trend deciders 200-Day SMA(today at 5106) and 200-Day EMA(today at 5163) therefore Long Term Trend survival hopes are alive and final confirmation is expected in next week.

Mid-session Outlook(03-08-2012)

Whole day negative zone trading after gap down opening but lower levels support also seen between 5165-5175 amid depressing global sentiments. As intraday supports today above Long Term Trend deciders 200-Day SMA(today at 5106) and 200-Day EMA(today at 5163) therefore Long Term Trend survival hopes are alive.

As both buying and selling seen between 5200-5250 in last 2 sessions therefore finally sustaining it beyond will be next trend confirmations. It will happen in next week and resultant big up or down moves will be seen according to Long Term Trend confirmation.

Global Stock Markets crash after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's failure

Firstly European Stock markets crashed immediately after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's failure to announce concrete plans to help solve Europe's debt crisis. All the Asian Stock markets in deep Red today after U.S. stocks also ended in Red yesterday.

Investors had hoped that Draghi would announce some form of new action after his promise last week that ECB would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro and all the Global stock markets showed good rally also after his positive announcement but investors were disappointed by European Central Bank president.

In absence of an explicit commitment, borrowing costs in Spain and Italy moved higher yesterday. Spain's 10-year yield rose back above 7%, while Italy's 10-year yield moved above 6%.

Indian markets Outlook after Mario Draghi's failure

Weak opening is confirm after dampned Global sentiments. As Nifty traded between 5210-5246 with both lower levels consolidations and higher levels selling therefore sustaining below 5210 should be firstly watched amid most depressed sentiments today morning. Today intraday moves will be the impact of weak sentiments also therefore firstly today intraday charts patterns formations should be watched because both following possibilities are alive:-

1- Fresh selling after disappointing sentiments or 
2- Lower levels again consolidations after last 2 sessions. 

Next Monday markets will be free from depressing mood and next trend final confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5200-5250.

Firstly watch next trend decider 5200-5250

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook
(03-08-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 01 & Aug 02,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5213-5226 on 01-08-2012
2- Selling between 5238-5246 on 01-08-2012
3- Consolidation between 5210-5224 on 02-08-2012
4- Two sessions trading between 5210-5246

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Completely narrow range trading within 36 points and between most crucial resistance range(5200-5250) with both lower levels consolidations and higher levels selling. Although Nifty is trading above long term trend decider 200-Day SMA and 200-Day EMA for the last 4 sessions but sustaining above confirmation is required yet.

As both buying and selling patterns are seen in last 2 sessions therefore it will be understood that technically Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves and if sentiment does not remain boiling then Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend within mentioned resistance range(5200-5250).

Although US and European markets are in deep Red at this moment but lower levels intraday support seen today therefore sustaining above 5250 possibilities are still alive. Finally  forceful break out or sustaining beyond 5200-5250 will be next trend confirmation and should be firstly watched.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(02-Aug-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- SENSEX and NIFTY closed in Red with minor loss.
2- Midcap and SMLcap closed in Green.
3- Bullish Hammer Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.02
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-Aug-2012): 17.07

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1495
BSE Declines : 1178
NSE Advances :  788
NSE Declines :  624

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Aug)- -21,650(-1.2%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Aug)- 954,600(11.27%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Aug)- -154,800(-6.4%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Aug)-   24,150(0.39%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Aug)- 285,250(7.33%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Aug)- 244,250(5.16%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Aug)- 383,650(9.28%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Aug)- -42,300(-1.88%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,227.75(-12.75 Points & -0.24%)
Sensex- closed at 17,224.36(-33.02 Points & -0.19% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,255.90(24.80 Points & 0.34%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,550.79(30.49 Points & 0.47%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-08-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5266
R2 5251
R1 5239
Avg 5224
S1 5212
S2 5197
S3 5185

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5254     Trgt 2
H5 5247     Trgt 1
H4 5241     Long breakout
H3 5234     Go Short
H2 5231
H1 5229
L1 5224
L2 5222
L3 5219     Long
L4 5212     Short Breakout
L5 5206     Trgt 1
L6 5199     Trgt 2

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-08-2012

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 5288
R2 5270
R1 5258
Avg 5240
S1 5228
S2 5210
S3 5198

Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5276     Trgt 2
H5 5269     Trgt 1
H4 5262     Long breakout
H3 5254     Go Short
H2 5251
H1 5248
L1 5243
L2 5240
L3 5237     Long
L4 5229     Short Breakout
L5 5222     Trgt 1
L6 5215     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-08-2012

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Levels

R3 10588
R2 10525
R1 10476
Avg 10413
S1 10364
S2 10301
S3 10252

Bank Nifty(Aug Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10540     Trgt 2
H5 10515     Trgt 1
H4 10489     Long breakout
H3 10458     Go Short
H2 10448
H1 10438
L1 10417
L2 10407
L3 10397     Long
L4 10366     Short Breakout
L5 10340     Trgt 1
L6 10315     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(02-08-2012)

Following topic was posted yesterday for today trading:-

Firstly watch 5200-5250 for Long Term Trend Fate

Nifty traded whole day today within above mentioned range between 5209.95-5236.90.As today intraday patterns are showing consolidations patterns therefore finally trading above 5250 possibilities turned higher despite whole day negative zone trading today.

Mid-session Outlook(02-08-2012)

Following lines were today yesterday which proved 100% accurate today:-

"Whole day narrow range trading within 33 points but both consolidations and distribution patterns therefore more preparations is required for next decisive moves near about today trading range"

Nifty traded Whole day between 5213-5246 yesterday and today first 4 hours trading range is 5210- 5236.

Nifty is preparing for next decisive moves within 5200-5250 with both higher levels selling as well as lower levels buying seen within this range. Nifty is trading above long term trend decider 200-Day SMA and 200-Day EMA and all trends turning up confirmation is required through forceful break out or sustaining above 5250 for next up moves confirmations.

As lower levels sopports today therefore upward break out above 5250 possibilities are very much alive despite whole day negative zone trading today but firstly watch forceful break out or sustaining beyond 5200-5250 also for next trend confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(02-08-2012)

As soon as selling developed yesterday then it was immediately updated in following lines yesterday at 01:54:00 PM in Mid-session Outlook:-

"selling signals emerging in last one hour intraday charts therefore view turned cautious and firstly previous resistance range(5200-5250) break out should be watched for next moves confirmations."

In all 3 previous outlooks selling at higher levels was told and showed in intraday charts also. Result is clear that Indian markets are in Red and slipped from yesterday higher levels. 

View is same and next trend confirmation will be after forceful break out or sustaining beyond resistance range(5200-5250).