Pre-Closing Outlook(21-05-2012)

Indian markets showed out performnace in first session but did not responded in the Mid Session after good recovery in US Futures and European markets. Dow's Futures is more than 75 points up and all the European markets have turned positive but Indian markets slipped from intra day highs.

Clear supports at lower levels but selling patterns also seen at higher levels therefore today trading range (4904-4936) break out should be firstly watched out for next short term confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(21-05-2012)

Asian markets are mixed but All the European markets are in Red but Indian markets are again out performing today with trading .50% up. Last 3 hours trading betwen 4904-4924 with intraday mixed patterns. As Indian markets are sustaining in Green despite negative European markets thereofore it is a signal of strength.

Sustaining above 4924 will be continuation confirmation of last Friday begun up move.

Only Watch 4790-4907 Break out for Short Term / Intermediate Term Trend

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

 (May 21 to May 25,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
2- Corrective Wave-2 continuation.
3- Breaking down confirmation after 9 sessions sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA.
4- 61 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
5- Support at the bottom of Lower Falling Trend Line of  Falling Channel on 18-05-2012

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All the trends are down and Indian markets are in the grip of Bears. Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through 9 sessions sustaing below 200-Day SMA during on going correction. Nifty got support at Lower Falling Trend Line of  Falling Channel on 18-05-2012 anf fast recovery seen also.

4 Supports & 4 Resistances in Last 10 Days

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 07 to May 18,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 10 days intraday charts

4 Supports of last 10 sessions are as follows:-

S1- 4790-4807
S2- Double Bottom support at 4852.
S3- 4840-4860
S4- 4877-4907

4 Resistances of last 10 sessions are as follows:-

R1-4904-4922
R2-4936-4953
R3-5003-5036
R4-5065-5125

Conclusions from 10 days intra day chart analysis 

Strong recovery after gap down opening on 18-05-2012 as well as crossing all 3 previous supports because gap down opening was the result of Global markets crash. As market slipped after good selling therefore 4 resistances also developed in last 10 sessions.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are down and Indian markets are in Bear phase and multiple resistances are at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required for crossing and sustaining above resistances. Nifty has to face following resistances also after crossing above mentioned 4 resistances of on going 61 sessions correction:-

1- Resistance between 5190-5305
2- Resistance between 5318-5337
3- Resistance between 5357-5377
4- Resistance between 5418-5487
5- Resistance between 5588-5625

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of previous rally(4531-5629) are as follows:-

13.0%- 5486(Tested)
23.6%- 5369(Tested)
27.0%- 5332(Tested)
38.2%- 5209(Tested)
50.0%- 5080(Tested)
61.8%- 4950(Tested)
70.7%- 4852(Tested)
76.4%- 4790(Got support at 4788.95 on 18-05-2012)
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

76.4% Retracement completed on 18-05-2012 and after that sharp up move was also seen because Nifty got support also at Lower Falling Trend Line of  Falling Channel on 18-05-2012. Nifty got support between 4790-4907 in last 5 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between this range in the beginning of next week and sustaining above this range(4907) is must for any decisive up move. As all the trends are down therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 200-Day SMA till then only Pull Back rally will be considered. Breaking down below 4790 will be confirmations of fast down moves to test following supports;-

1- 4635-4663
2- 4602-4624
3- 4560-4590 

As last 5 sessions support range(4790-4907) is most crucial for deciding next short term/Intermediate term trend therefore firstly watch its break out for above mentioned next moves confirmations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- Long White candle formation.
3- Strong recovery from lower levels after after gap down opening.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.95
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-May-2012): 16.85

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1187
BSE Declines : 1536
NSE Advances :  603
NSE Declines :  819

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(May)- +253650(+37.79%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(May)- +614800(+9.60%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +229550(+9.00%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +503200(+7.79%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- -141500(-2.93%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- -125200(-2.15%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +190250(+3.37%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- +23400(0.65%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +515250(+7.94%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- +-135100(-4.70%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,891.45(+21.25 Points & +0.44%)
Sensex- closed at 16,152.75(+82.27 Points & +0.51% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,867.30(-19.25 Points & -0.28%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,255.42(-14.94 Points & -0.24%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 18-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 18-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 18-May-2012 1672.69 1921.62 -248.93

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 18-May-2012 1021.59 872.65 148.94

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5056
R2 4982
R1 4936
Avg 4862
S1 4816
S2 4742
S3 4696

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5013     Trgt 2
H5 4985     Trgt 1
H4 4957     Long breakout
H3 4924     Go Short
H2 4913
H1 4902
L1 4880
L2 4869
L3 4858     Long
L4 4825     Short Breakout
L5 4796     Trgt 1
L6 4768     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5079
R2 4992
R1 4940
Avg 4853
S1 4801
S2 4714
S3 4662

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5030     Trgt 2
H5 4997     Trgt 1
H4 4964     Long breakout
H3 4926     Go Short
H2 4913
H1 4900
L1 4875
L2 4862
L3 4849     Long
L4 4811     Short Breakout
L5 4778     Trgt 1
L6 4745     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9802
R2 9560
R1 9408
Avg 9166
S1 9014
S2 8772
S3 8620

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9664     Trgt 2
H5 9568     Trgt 1
H4 9472     Long breakout
H3 9364     Go Short
H2 9328
H1 9292
L1 9219
L2 9183
L3 9147    Long
L4 9039     Short Breakout
L5 8943     Trgt 1
L6 8847     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(May 21 to May 25,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5138
R2 5047
R1 4969
Avg 4878
S1 4800
S2 4709
S3 4631

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5063     Trgt 2
H5 5023     Trgt 1
H4 4983     Long breakout
H3 4937     Go Short
H2 4921
H1 4906
L1 4875
L2 4860
L3 4844    Long
L4 4798     Short Breakout
L5 4758     Trgt 1
L6 4718    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(May 21 to May 25,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10045
R2 9772
R1 9541
Avg 9268
S1 9037
S2 8764
S3 8533

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 9831     Trgt 2
H5 9709     Trgt 1
H4 9587     Long breakout
H3 9448     Go Short
H2 9402
H1 9356
L1 9263
L2 9217
L3 9171     Long
L4 9032     Short Breakout
L5 8910     Trgt 1
L6 8788     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(18-05-2012)

Today gap down and most time negative zone trading was the sentimental impact of Global crashing sentiment but Strong SBI results boosted market mood and market sparked because it showed the strength of Indian Banking Industry.

Nifty got Double Bottom support at 4852 yesterday and closing above it will be seen today. Indian markets are in the grip of Bears and require complete consolidation for decisive up moves.

Firstly sustaining above 4852 and then forceful crossing of next crucial resistances will give decisive up moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(18-05-2012)

All the Global markets crashing but fireowrks in Indian markets after good results of SBI. While European Banks are in deep trouble but on the other hand Indian Banks are prospering.

SBI boosted sentiment and sharp surge in Indian markets. Today up moves are strong and sustaining above crucial resistances will give decisive up moves confirmations.

Gap down amid Global markets crash

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 4904-4922
2- Down moves in Falling Channel.
3- Double Bottom support at the lowest level.
4- Whole day trading between 4852-4922.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

When Indian markets were trading near the highs of the day and selling started to develop yesterday then it was immediately updated with next moves confirmation levels in Mid-session Outlook and following lines were told:-

1- minor selling formations also seen at higher levels today.
2- next moves confirmations is through sustaining above 4895/4882.

Firstly selling between 4904-4922 and after that down moves in Falling Channel(Bullish pattern) with intraday Double Bottom support at the lowest level of the day(4852) yesterday.

Pre-open Outlook(18-05-2012)

Although Double Bottom supports at lower levels were seen yesterday but most Asian markets are more than 2% down after 1.25% to 2% fall in all the US and European markets yesterday. Sentiment is highly depressed therefore negative zone trading and closing is expected after gap down opening today. 

Following supports of previous rally are only hopes for Bulls:-

1- 4810-4825
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

All trends are down and only Bounce Back or Pull Back Rally will be considered after support getting confirmations. Decisive up moves will be possible only after complete consolidations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 17-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 17-May-2012 2289.29 2298.96 -9.67

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 17-May-2012 955.33 701.18 254.15

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green with marginal gains.
2- Most Indices closed with marginal gains or loss except FMCG closing after good intraday up moves.
3- Doji Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.94
Nifty P/E Ratio(17-May-2012): 16.78

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1335
BSE Declines : 1385
NSE Advances :  720
NSE Declines :  697

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(May)- -13000(-1.90%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(May)- +342150(+5.65%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +423100(+19.88%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +5250(+0.08%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +300500(+6.63%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +193100(+3.31%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +99900(+1.77%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -308550(-7.89%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +208000(+3.31%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -107200(-3.59%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,870.20(+11.95 Points & +0.25%)
Sensex- closed at 16,070.48(+40.39 Points & +0.25% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,886.55(-15.50 Points & -0.22%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,270.36(+5.41 Points & +0.09%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4983
R2 4952
R1 4911
Avg 4880
S1 4839
S2 4808
S3 4767

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4942     Trgt 2
H5 4925     Trgt 1
H4 4909     Long breakout
H3 4889     Go Short
H2 4883
H1 4876
L1 4863
L2 4856
L3 4850     Long
L4 4830     Short Breakout
L5 4814     Trgt 1
L6 4797     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 4979
R2 4945
R1 4898
Avg 4864
S1 4817
S2 4783
S3 4736

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4933     Trgt 2
H5 4914     Trgt 1
H4 4896     Long breakout
H3 4874     Go Short
H2 4866
H1 4859
L1 4844
L2 4837
L3 4829     Long
L4 4807     Short Breakout
L5 4789     Trgt 1
L6 4770     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9478
R2 9381
R1 9233
Avg 9136
S1 8988
S2 8891
S3 8743

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9331     Trgt 2
H5 9275     Trgt 1
H4 9219     Long breakout
H3 9152     Go Short
H2 9129
H1 9107
L1 9062
L2 9040
L3 9017     Long
L4 8950    Short Breakout
L5 8894     Trgt 1
L6 8838     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(17-05-2012)

When Indian markets were trading near the highs of the day and selling started to develop then it was immediately updated with next moves confirmation levels in Mid-session Outlook and following lines were told:-

1- minor selling formations also seen at higher levels today..
2- next moves confirmations is through sustaining above 4895/4882.

Indian markets are in the hands of Bears and selling again seen at higher levels today as well as formations of new intraday lows also observed. Although whole day down moves in Falling Channel(Bullish pattern) but good selling at higher levels also therefore following levels will be firstly watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations:-

1- Sustaing above 4890 will be first upmove strong indication.
2- Sustaing above 4922 will be up moves confirmations.
3- Sustaining below 4838(yesterday lowest) will be deep down moves confirmation.

As Falling Channel(Bullish pattern) formation was seen above 4838 yesterday therefore sustaining below is must for more down moves confirmations.