Mid-session Outlook-3(14-05-2012)

April inflation at 7.23% vs 6.89% in March

Inflation upward trend triggered down moves in Indian markets and Nifty slipped below 4908. As intraday selling formation confirmation between 4945-4955 therefore sustaining below 4908 will mean crashing like situation possibility.

Mid-session Outlook-2(14-05-2012)

Intraday selling confirmation between 4945-4955 today.

Mid-session Outlook(14-05-2012)

Technical positions of 11-05-2012 are as follows:-

1- Supports between 4908-4938
2- Selling between 4955-4975

Today first 2 hours trading range is 4937-4954 and it will be clear from intraday charts that it is least trading zone of 11-05-2012. Market is firstly preparing for next moves within 4937-4954 and sustaining beyond 4908-4975 will be result of positions formation firstly within 4937-4954 and afteward within 4908-4975. 

Next trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond 4908-4975 and should be firstly watched.  

Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation through Most Crucial 4908-4938

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 14 to May 18,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
2- Corrective Wave-2 continuation. 
3- 55 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
4- Breaking down of Long Term Trend Decider 200-Day SMA.
5- Four days closing below 200-Day SMA. 
6- Breaking down of Falling Channel.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Impulsive Wave-1  rally started on 20-12-2011 after 13 months correction from 4531.15 and after  1098.80 Nifty Points rally its Corrective Wave-2 begun from 5629.95 on 22-02-2012. Correction is continued and its new low was formed at 4906.15 on 11-05-2012. Next supports of this rally are as follows:- 

1- 4810-4900
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of previous rally(4531-5629) are as follows:-

13.0%- 5486(Tested)
23.6%- 5369(Tested)
27.0%- 5332(Tested)
38.2%- 5209(Tested)
50.0%- 5080(Tested)
61.8%- 4950(Tested)
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

correction is continued and almost confirmation of Long Term trend turning down after 4 consecutive closing below 200-Day SMA as well as strong indicatons of entering into Bear markets. As most of the oscillators in EOD charts are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day but until Nifty will not sustain above 200-Day SMA till then Bullish markets can not be considered.

Nifty traded most of the time and closed below 61.8%  retracement level(4950) on 11-05-2012 with intraday supports between 4908-4938 and firstly survival of this support range should be watched in the beginning of next week,its breaking down will mean testing of above mentioned supports and sustaining above 4938 will mean first and foremost requirement of complete consolidations for any decisive up moves because Nifty has to counter following resistances of on going 55 sessions correction:-

1- Resistance between 4995-5035
2- Resistance between 5070-5125
3- Resistance between 5190-5305
4- Resistance between 5318-5337
5- Resistance between 5357-5377
6- Resistance between 5418-5487
7- Resistance between 5588-5625

Latest support between 4908-4938 ia most crucial because markets got support between this range after most depressing negative IIp data therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week. 

Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation will be through Most Crucial 4908-4938.Sustaining below 4908 will be Bear markets confirmation and sustaining above 4938 will be survival of up moves expectations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 11-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-May-2012 1525.07 1366.51 158.56

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-May-2012 813.02 1056.31 -243.29

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Doji Candle Formation.
3- Sharp fall after negative IIP numbers but intraday support above 4900 and volatile market during last 3 hours.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.03
Nifty P/E Ratio(11-May-2012): 16.87

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :  919
BSE Declines : 1852
NSE Advances :  426
NSE Declines : 1008

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(May)- +11600(+7.22%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(May)- +494700(+12.41%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +94900(+13.93%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +903450(+16.13%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +1387100(+100.71%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +207400(+2.94%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +77500(+1.77%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -448450(-7.70%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +590900(+12.08%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -422850(-10.53%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +383450(+5.56%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- -116700(+-5.71%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,928.90(-36.80 Points & -0.74%)
Sensex- closed at 16,292.98(-127.07 Points & -0.77% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,985.75(-77.55 Points & -1.10%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,395.38(-58.82 Points & -0.91%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5037
R2 5006
R1 4967
Avg 4936
S1 4897
S2 4866
S3 4827

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4998     Trgt 2
H5 4982     Trgt 1
H4 4966     Long breakout
H3 4947     Go Short
H2 4940
H1 4934
L1 4921
L2 4915
L3 4908     Long
L4 4889     Short Breakout
L5 4873     Trgt 1
L6 4857     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5180
R2 5118
R1 5024
Avg 4962
S1 4868
S2 4806
S3 4712

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5087     Trgt 2
H5 5052     Trgt 1
H4 5016     Long breakout
H3 4973     Go Short
H2 4959
H1 4945
L1 4916
L2 4902
L3 4888     Long
L4 4845     Short Breakout
L5 4809     Trgt 1
L6 4774     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9768
R2 9639
R1 9509
Avg 9380
S1 9250
S2 9121
S3 8991

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9641     Trgt 2
H5 9581     Trgt 1
H4 9521     Long breakout
H3 9450     Go Short
H2 9426
H1 9402
L1 9355
L2 9331
L3 9307     Long
L4 9236     Short Breakout
L5 9176     Trgt 1
L6 9116     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(May 14 to May 18,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5285
R2 5205
R1 5066
Avg 4986
S1 4847
S2 4767
S3 4628

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5147     Trgt 2
H5 5098     Trgt 1
H4 5048     Long breakout
H3 4988     Go Short
H2 4968
H1 4948
L1 4907
L2 4887
L3 4867     Long
L4 4807     Short Breakout
L5 4757     Trgt 1
L6 4708     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(May 14 to May 18,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10410
R2 10167
R1 9782
Avg 9539
S1 9154
S2 8911
S3 8526

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10032     Trgt 2
H5  9888     Trgt 1
H4  9743   Long breakout
H3  9570   Go Short
H2  9513
H1  9455
L1  9340
L2  9282
L3  9225    Long
L4  9052    Short Breakout
L5  8907    Trgt 1
L6  8763    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(11-05-2012)

When Nifty was trading at 4920 at 12:40 PM today then following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

1-intraday supports above 4900
2-bounce back may be seen
3-for cutting of general public stop losses.

As was told 100% same happened and:-

1- Nifty sustained above 4900.
2- Bounce back seen and Nifty made intraday top at 4976.25
3- Nifty again slipped to 4925 after cutting general public stop losses

Although intraday support above 4900 today but lot of technical requirements now for sustained up moves and follow up buying/selling in next week will decide the fate of 4900 supports survival.

Mid-session Outlook-2(11-05-2012)

Highly depressing news of negative IIP numbers but markets did not showed huge declines and it is a signal of intraday supports above 4900 therefore bounce back may be seen for cutting of general public stop losses.

Mid-session Outlook(11-05-2012)

March IIP @ -3.5%

Sentiment was already weak and unexpected negative IIP numbers energised Bears to drag down Indian markets.Correction is continued to test following supports at lower levels.

1- 4810-4900
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

Firstly watch most crucial 61.8% retracement level(4950)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 11-05-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Almost first 4 hours trading between between 5019-5036 with intraday selling between 5025-5036.
2- Last more than one hour trading between 4951-4985 with mixed intraday patterns. 
3- Whole day trading between 4951-5039

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 5106 and today closing was third consecutive day closing below it. Correction is continued and intraday selling was seen again seen below 200-Day SMA today therefore almost confirmation of Long Term Trend turning down. 

61.8% retracement level is at 4950 and today lowest is at 4950.30 as well as last more than one hour trading between 4951-4985 with mixed intraday patterns therefore sustaining beyond 4950 will be firstly watched tomorrow for the confirmation of;-

1- Deeper correction below 4950 or
2- Long Term Trend survival last hopes above 4950.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 10-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 10-May-2012 1916.25 1598.83 317.42

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 10-May-2012 1046.05 1189.58 -143.53

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Flat closing after slipping from higher levels.
2- Black Candle.
3- Firstly strong trading but moving down after opening of European markets.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.10
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-May-2012):17.00

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1209
BSE Declines : 1592
NSE Advances :  595
NSE Declines :  836

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +27650(+4.21%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +333450(+6.26%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +183150(+15.63%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +659700(+10.11%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +681500(+17.72%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- +247050(+3.75%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +658800(+15.56%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -119350(-2.89%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,965.70(-9.10 Points & -0.18%)
Sensex- closed at 16,420.05(-59.53 Points & -0.36% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,063.30(+8.10 Points & +0.11%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,454.20(-15.76 Points & -0.24%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Levels

R3 5108
R2 5073
R1 5019
Avg 4984
S1 4930
S2 4895
S3 4841

Trading Strategy

H6 5054     Trgt 2
H5 5034     Trgt 1
H4 5013     Long breakout
H3 4989     Go Short
H2 4981
H1 4973
L1 4956
L2 4948
L3 4940     Long
L4 4916     Short Breakout
L5 4895     Trgt 1
L6 4875     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5125
R2 5085
R1 5025
Avg 4985
S1 4925
S2 4885
S3 4825

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5066     Trgt 2
H5 5043     Trgt 1
H4 5021     Long breakout
H3 4993     Go Short
H2 4984
H1 4975
L1 4956
L2 4947
L3 4938     Long
L4 4911     Short Breakout
L5 4888     Trgt 1
L6 4865     Trgt 2