Accuracy of our Outlooks proved by Today Up Moves

Post-open Outlook(27-04-2012)

SENSEX 112 points up and NIFTY 34 points up within first 15 minutes today but such up moves were projected yesterday in all the last 3 Outlooks and following lines were told:-

Consolidations Up moves possibility for today was projected yesterday in following words:-

1- In "Pre-Closing Outlook(26-04-2012)" at 3:17:00 PM: yesterday-

Whole day trading between 8180-5210 with consolidation indications.Today intraday consolidation patterns may be first step toward rally beginning 

2- In "Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Apr-2012)" at 07:47:00 PM yesterday

Sideways trading with intraday consolidation patterns despite negative closing today.

3- In "Rally expectations developed after Intraday consolidations today" at 10:41:00 PM yesterday

1- intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore correction completion process beginning will be considered now.

2- Whole day consolidation patterns between 5180-5197 today and sustaining it beyond will be firstly watched tomorrow with expectations of up moves and rally.

Positive trading after Green opening today and only sustaining above 5197 should be firstly watched today because follow up buying is must for correction completion.

Rally expectations developed after Intraday consolidations today

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 27-04-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5180-5197 
2- Whole day sideways trading with intraday consolidation patterns
3- Whole day trading between 5180-5210

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although market closed near the lower levels and Black Candle formation today but intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore correction completion process beginning will be considered now. Follow up buying and base formations after more consolidations are required in the coming sessions and sustaining above following resistances will be rally commencement confirmation.

1- 5208-5236
2- 5288-5310

As more consolidation is also required now therefore slipping possibility below 5180 can not be ruled out during consolidation process and following most crucial supports should be kept in mind:-

1- 5136(Next botom). 
2- 5130(200-Day SMA of today)
3- 5080(50% retracement level of previous rally)

Let consolidation process complete or more Bullish indications emerge then up moves and rally will be strongly projected. Expected that finally Nifty will not sustain below 5130 and will not slip below 5080 

All possibilities have been discussed above but Whole day consolidation patterns between 5180-5197 today and sustaining it beyond will be firstly watched tomorrow with expectations of up moves and rally. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 26-Apr-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Apr-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 26-Apr-2012 3356.74 3732.82 -376.08

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 26-Apr-2012 1491.42 1427.93 63.49

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Apr-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Black Candle formation.
3- Sideways trading with intraday consolidation patterns despite negative closing today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.90
Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Apr-2012): 18.22

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1127
BSE Declines : 1614
NSE Advances :  534
NSE Declines :  884

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +156200(+22.36%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- +897800(+31.11%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +354950(+19.87%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- +427850(+14.90%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(May)- +473850(+21.86%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(May)- -81950(-4.91%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,189.00(-13.00 Points & -0.25%)
Sensex- closed at 17,130.67(-20.62 Points & -0.12% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,389.25(-41.00 Points & -0.55%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,726.37(-27.50 Points & -0.41%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-04-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5245
R2 5230
R1 5209
Avg 5194
S1 5173
S2 5158
S3 5137

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5225     Trgt 2
H5 5216     Trgt 1
H4 5208     Long breakout
H3 5198     Go Short
H2 5195
H1 5192
L1 5185
L2 5182
L3 5179     Long
L4 5169     Short Breakout
L5 5161     Trgt 1
L6 5152     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-04-2012

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5278
R2 5262
R1 5238
Avg 5222
S1 5198
S2 5182
S3 5158

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5254     Trgt 2
H5 5245     Trgt 1
H4 5236     Long breakout
H3 5225    Go Short
H2 5221
H1 5217
L1 5210
L2 5206
L3 5203     Long
L4 5192     Short Breakout
L5 5182     Trgt 1
L6 5173     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-04-2012

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 10365
R2 10310
R1 10222
Avg 10167
S1 10079
S2 10024
S3 9936

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10277     Trgt 2
H5 10244    Trgt 1
H4 10212    Long breakout
H3 10173     Go Short
H2 10160
H1 10147
L1 10120
L2 10107
L3 10094    Long
L4 10055     Short Breakout
L5 10023     Trgt 1
L6  9990    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-04-2012)

Whole day trading between 8180-5210 with consolidation indications. As good selling at higher levels therefore more consolidations and follow up buying as well as more confirmations are required. Today intraday consolidation patterns may be first step toward rally beginning therefore sustaining beyond above mentioned today trading should be firstly watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(26-04-2012)

Trading between 5185-5210 today and sustaining beyond this range will be 1st indication of next moves. Selling patterns seen at higher levels today but intraday support with nigher bottom also seen therefore sustaining beyond above mentioned  today trading range should be firstly watched next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(26-04-2012)

Quiet market on expiry day today because 7 hours selling between 5208-5236 in last 2 sessions and support between 5161-5195 on 25-04-2012 and both side moves are capped between 5161-5236.

As market is not prepared for any side decisive moves therefore sideways moves were expected for today and following lines were told in "Market at Most Crucial Support levels before Rally beginning"

Although Nifty recovered 50 points after lower levels support and Double Bottom formation on 25-04-2012 but not sufficient and complete consolidation with base formation is required for correction completion. As 7 hours selling between 5208-5236 in last 2 sessions and until Nifty will not sustain above 5236 till then any rally will not be considered.

3 Hours trading between 5185-5210 today and sustaining beyond this range will be 1st indication of next moves. As Selling patterns seen at higher levels today therefore down moves possibilities from here are turning high. Sustaining beyond 5161-5236 will be next trend strong confirmation.

Detailed analysis have already been updated in following topic.Just click following topic link and trade after understanding all crucial points and levels:-

Market at Most Crucial Support levels before Rally beginning

Market at Most Crucial Support levels before Rally beginning

Technical Analysis and Research For 26-04-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Apr-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 7 hours selling between 5208-5236 in last 2 sessions.
2- Support between 5161-5195
3- Whole day trading between 5161-5236

Conclusions from Previous Topics

Although more than 50 points of Nifty fall was seen today just before 11:59 AM  on 13-04-2012  but we cautioned clearly before this fall and clearly told following lines:-

1- We told following line in "More Down moves possibility is still alive" at 12:18AM (mid night) on 25-04-2012:-

finally Nifty will not sustain above 5232 and more down moves possibility is still alive as well as slipping below 5200 is possible.

2- We told following line in "Post-open Outlook-2" at 11:18 AM on 25-04-2012 :-

Intraday selling patterns at higher levels today.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation in EOD Chart:-

Following topic was posted on 13-04-2012. Just click following topic link and understand next moves possibility:-

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation In On Going Correction

Conclusion from above topic:-

As lower tops and lower bottoms formations in on going correction therefore new bottom B3 formations possibility below 5135.95 can not be ruled out in the coming sessions.

Next most crucial Supports:-

As correction is on therefore following 2 most crucial supports should also be kept in mind:-

1- Next support range 5136-5167(tested today)
2- Two times support at Long term Trend decider 200 Day SMA in on going correction and 200-Day SMA is today at 5132.

Importace of  Long term Trend decider 200 Day SMA:-

Importace of 200 Day SMA support has already been updated in following 2 topics. Just click following topic links and go through:-

1-  Posted on 15-04-2012- Last corrective Wave before Strong Bullish Rally 
2-  24-04-2012- Next Trend decider & Most Crucial 200-Day SMA 

Conclusion from above topics:-

Correction is on and its testing as well as slipping below it also can not be ruled out in the coming sessions but until Nifty will not sustain below Long term Trend decider 200-Day SMA till then Bullish market possibility will remain alive.

Bullish 'Flag Pattern' Formations:-

Correction continuation with Bullish 'Flag Pattern' Formation in EOD Chart therefore expected that finally strong rally will be seen after correction completion and in this regard following topic was posted on 08-04-2012. Just click following topic link and go through:-

 Bullish 'Flag Pattern' Formation in EOD Chart

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Let market completely consolidate and form base then up moves will be considered otherwise more down moves will be seen. As correction is very nuch on and no cofirmation of its completion yet therefore its continuation can not be ruled out at this moment.

Volatile session  on 25-04-2012  because lower levels supports seen after higher levels selling and firstly trading will be seen within the highs and lows of last 2 sessions(5161-5239).

Although Nifty recovered 50 points after lower levels support and Double Bottom formation  on 25-04-2012 but not sufficient and complete consolidation with base formation is required for correction completion. As 7 hours selling between 5208-5236 in last 2 sessions and until Nifty will not sustain above 5236 till then any rally will not be considered.

Up moves confirmation will be minimum after sustaining above 1st Resistance(5236) and high possibility of support getting at or near about following most crucial support levels 

1- 5136
2- 5132(200-Day SMA)

Expected that strong rally will begin  after getting support near about above levels and 2 months correction completion. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Apr-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Apr-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Apr-2012 2176.64 2517.48 -340.84

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Apr-2012 911.18 870.48 40.7

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Apr-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Bullish Hammer Candle formation.
2- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
3- Highly volatile market.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.03
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Apr-2012): 18.27

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1060
BSE Declines : 1676
NSE Advances :  453
NSE Declines :  979

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5100 CE(Apr)- +283500(+52.96%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Apr)- +269700(+4.18%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Apr)- -119950(-2.97%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Apr)- -1276400(-19.19%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Apr)- +272700(+4.61%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Apr)- -358800(-12.13%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,202.00(-20.65 Points & -0.40%)
Sensex- closed at 17,151.29(-56.00 Points & -0.33% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,430.25(-59.85 Points & -0.80%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,753.87(-35.94 Points & -0.53%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5314
R2 5275
R1 5238
PIVOT 5199
S1 5162
S2 5123
S3 5086

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5278     Trgt 2
H5 5261     Trgt 1
H4 5243     Long breakout
H3 5222    Go Short
H2 5215
H1 5208
L1 5195
L2 5188
L3 5181    Long
L4 5160     Short Breakout
L5 5142     Trgt 1
L6 5125     Trgt 2

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2012

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 5319
R2 5277
R1 5237
PIVOT 5195
S1 5155
S2 5113
S3 5073

Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5280     Trgt 2
H5 5261     Trgt 1
H4 5243     Long breakout
H3 5220     Go Short
H2 5213
H1 5205
L1 5190
L2 5182
L3 5175     Long
L4 5152    Short Breakout
L5 5134     Trgt 1
L6 5115     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-04-2012

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels

R3 10515
R2 10396
R1 10281
PIVOT 10162
S1 10047
S2 9928
S3 9813

Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10403     Trgt 2
H5 10349     Trgt 1
H4 10295     Long breakout
H3 10231     Go Short
H2 10209
H1 10188
L1 10145
L2 10124
L3 10102     Long
L4 10038     Short Breakout
L5  9984     Trgt 1
L6  9930    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(25-04-2012)

Only down moves were projected in all the Outlooks of this week and it was seen also in this week. Sharp fall today after more than 7 hours selling between 5208-5236 in last 2 sessions. Until Nifty will not sustain above 5236 till then any rally will not be considered.

Volatile session today because lower levels supports seen after higher levels selling and next few hours trading will be within the highs and lows of today and yesterday(5161-5239).

Correction is on and no cobfirmation of its completion yet. Let market completely consolidate and form base then up moves will be considered otherwise more down moves because correction is very much on and its continuation can not be ruled out.

Accuracy of our predictions

Following line was told in More Down moves possibility is still alive at 12:18AM (mid night) today;-

US markets are trading with good gains after European markets strong closing therefore intraday volatility and some up moves may be seen but expected that finally Nifty will not sustain above 5232 and more down moves possibility is still alive as well as slipping below 5200 is possible.

When Nifty was trading above 5215 then following line was told in Post-open Outlook-2 today:-

Intraday selling patterns at higher levels today.

Post-open Outlook-2(25-04-2012)

Intraday selling patterns at higher levels today.