Post-open Outlook(01-03-2012)

As selling yesterday therefore Following 4 projections were given today in 5346-5390 break out for correction continuation/completion confirmation:-

1- More than 3 hours good selling between 5458-5422
2- market require more consolidation to cross 5458
3- As good selling therefore correction continuation risk turned higher
4- until Nifty will not sustain above 5458 till then next up move will not be considered.

Weak opening today therefore Intermediate trend turning down risk turned high.

5346-5390 break out for correction continuation/completion confirmation

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Feb 28 and Feb 29,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 sessions intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours trading between 5346-5390 on 28-02-2012
2- More than 2 hours trading between 5346-5390 on 29-02-2012
3- More than 3 hours good selling between 5458-5422 on 29-02-2012
4- Minor support between 5357-5372 on 29-02-2012
5- Technical position of 28-02-2012 has been updated in Firstly Watch Correction fate decider 5346-5390 on 28-02-2012

Conclusions

Correction of 1098 Nifty Points rally is on and Short term trend is confirm down. Intermediate term trend is at stake and sustaining beyond 5340 will decide its fate.

Nifty traded more than 7 hours between 5346-5390 in last 2 sessions with mixed intraday patterns and sustaining below 5346 will mean intermediate term trend turning down and sharp down moves will be seen to test next support ranges. Sustaining above 5390 will mean rally continuation after correction completion.

More than 3 hours good selling between 5458-5422 and lower level minor support on 29-02-2012 therefore market require more consolidation to cross 5458. As good selling therefore correction continuation risk turned higher and until Nifty will not sustain above 5458 till then next up move will not be considered.

More than 7 hours trading between 5346-5390 in 2 previous sessions with buying at lower levels and selling at higher levels within and above this range therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between this range and sustaining below this range will give deeper correction confirmation after sustaining below 5346 and correction completion first indication above 5390 and confirmation will be above 5458.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(29-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Most Indices closed with minor gains or minor loss.
2- Most Indices slipped from intraday higher levels and closed little above intraday lows.
3- Black Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.10
Nifty P/E Ratio(29-Feb-2012): 19.09

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1573
BSE Declines : 1329
NSE Advances :  844
NSE Declines :  600

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,385.20(+9.70 Points & +0.18%)
Sensex- closed at 17,752.68(+21.56 Points & +0.12% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,705.60(+94.30 Points & +1.24%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,859.97(+42.06 Points & +0.62%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 29-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 29-Feb-2012 3666.24 3086.61 579.63

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 29-Feb-2012 1113.77 1544.84 -431.07

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5550
R2 5504
R1 5444
Avg 5398
S1 5338
S2 5292
S3 5232

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5491      Trgt 2
H5 5467    Trgt 1
H4 5443    Long breakout
H3 5414     Go Short
H2 5404
H1 5394
L1 5375
L2 5365
L3 5355    Long
L4 5326    Short Breakout
L5 5302     Trgt 1
L6 5278     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5524
R2 5491
R1 5465
Avg 5432
S1 5406
S2 5373
S3 5347

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5498     Trgt 2
H5 5484     Trgt 1
H4 5471     Long breakout
H3 5455     Go Short
H2 5449
H1 5444
L1 5433
L2 5428
L3 5422     Long
L4 5406    Short Breakout
L5 5393     Trgt 1
L6 5379     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11004
R2 10835
R1 10677
Avg 10508
S1 10350
S2 10181
S3 10023

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10851     Trgt 2
H5 10775     Trgt 1
H4 10698     Long breakout
H3 10608     Go Short
H2 10578
H1 10548
L1 10489
L2 10459
L3 10429     Long
L4 10339     Short Breakout
L5 10262     Trgt 1
L6 10186     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(29-02-2012)

Nifty traded  more than 5 hours yesterday with Mixed intraday Patterns between 5346-5390 and higher levels selling was shown also in intraday charts yesterday in Firstly Watch Correction fate decider 5346-5390. As higher levels selling yesterday therefore market could not sustain at higher levels after gap up opening today and slipped as well as trading for the last 2 hours within yesterday 5 hours trading range.

Follow up selling again today after yesterday higher levels selling therefore correction continuation risk turned higher. As Nifty traded almost 2 fours between 5346-5390 and also got support also within this range therefore sustaining beyond this range will be firstly watched tomorrrow for next moves confirmation and until Nifty will not sustain above 5450 till then next upmove will not be considered.

Lalit Sir is busy in is urgent work and Outlooks will be available after 2 hours.

Staff

Firstly Watch Correction fate decider 5346-5390

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(28-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Most of the time trading above 5340(Intermediate term trend decider)
2- More than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns between 5346-5390
3- Whole day trading between 5308-5390

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

It was expected that Nifty will not slip below 5340 and complete correction within strong support range 5340-5415 and side ways market will be seen but range shifted to 5268-5410 after negative flow on 29-02-2012. As yesterday down down move was due to negative news therefore equally sharp recovery seen today after positive news.

Correction is on and undecided Nifty is hovering around Intermediate term trend decider 5340,sustaining it beyond will give confirmation to correction continuation/completion. Nifty traded almost whole day above 5340 with intraday mixed patterns between 5346-5390.

Adverse news led 2 volatile sessions with more than 5 hours mixed intraday patterns are suggesting that Indian markets are not prepare for any side decisive moves and will trade more time between or near about 5346-5390 for catching next direction.

As good consolidation patterns at lower levels today therefore expected that follow up consolidation will be seen in the coming sessions and Nifty will finally sustain above 5340 after correction completion confirmation.

Sustaining beyond 5346-5390 will firstly decide the fate of on going correction therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next moves confirmations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(28-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green except IT and FMCG.
2- Whole day upmoves after positive news led strong opening.
3- Long White Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.08
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-Feb-2012): 19.05

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 2170
BSE Declines :  748
NSE Advances : 1238
NSE Declines :  234

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- +84300(+5.31%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- -551900(-8.64%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +36100(+1.60%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- +448700(+12.99%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Feb)- +149800(+4.03%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Feb)- +164150(+5.76%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,375.50(+94.30 Points & +1.79%)
Sensex- closed at 17,731.12(+285.37Points & +1.64% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,611.30(+259.50 Points & +3.53%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,317.42(+207.90 Points & +3.40%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 28-Feb-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 28-Feb-2012 2937.55 2209.96 727.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 28-Feb-2012 1283.87 1871.08 -587.21

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5493
R2 5442
R1 5408
Avg 5357
S1 5323
S2 5272
S3 5238

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5461     Trgt 2
H5 5441     Trgt 1
H4 5421     Long breakout
H3 5398     Go Short
H2 5390
H1 5382
L1 5367
L2 5359
L3 5351     Long
L4 5328     Short Breakout
L5 5308     Trgt 1
L6 5288     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5585
R2 5522
R1 5481
Avg 5418
S1 5377
S2 5314
S3 5273

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5546     Trgt 2
H5 5522     Trgt 1
H4 5498     Long breakout
H3 5469     Go Short
H2 5460
H1 5450
L1 5431
L2 5421
L3 5412     Long
L4 5383    Short Breakout
L5 5359     Trgt 1
L6 5335     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11277
R2 10995
R1 10812
Avg 10530
S1 10347
S2 10065
S3 9882

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11112     Trgt 2
H5 10999     Trgt 1
H4 10885     Long breakout
H3 10757    Go Short
H2 10715
H1 10672
L1 10587
L2 10544
L3 10502    Long
L4 10374     Short Breakout
L5 10260     Trgt 1
L6 10147    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(28-02-2012)

It was expected that Nifty will not slip below 5340 and complete correction within strong support range 5340-5415 and side ways market will be seen but negative Global cues and crude rates hike news led sharp fall seen yesterday but Sentiment reversed today after recovery in Global markets and reduction in Crude rates by more than .50% therefore equally strong recovery seen today and Nifty is trading above 5340 for the last 5 hours.

Intermedia term trend was at stake after slipping below 5340 but survived after more than 5 hours trading above it today. News based highly volatile markets for the last 2 sessions correction completion confirmation is required yet.

Nifty is hovering around 5340 for the last 2 sessions and last 5 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns also today therefore possibility of sustaining above 5340 has increased but confirmation of correction completion is left through sustaining above.

Only watch sustaining above 5340 tomorrow for next wave of rally after correction completion.

Mid-session Outlook(28-02-2012)

Deeper correction on the back of negative news and slipping below 5340 yesterday but not sustained and moved above today after sentiment improvement due to:-

1- Dow's futures more than 45 points up today.
2- Most Asian markets in Green today.
3- Reduction in Crude rates by more than .50%.

Question of sustaining above 5340 has to be replied yet and that will give confirmation of Intermediate term trend survival as well as rally continuation possibility after correction completion. 

Post-open Outlook(28-02-2012)

Strong opening and trading above the top of mentioned first trading range(5280-5340). Coming hours intraday charts patterns formations and sustaining above 5340 will give confirmation of Intermediate term trend survival and then high possibility rally continuation after correction completion.

Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5340 today for next moves confirmations.

Firstly Watch 5280-5340 today in Improved Sentiment

Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2012)

Asian markets are positive after the slipping of Crude by more than .50% therefore sentiment little improved today morning and Green opening will be seen. Sharp fall and panic bottom yesterday in ongoing correction and firstly its stopping as well as consolidation is required for correction completion confirmations.

Yesterday sharp fall was on the back of negative news flow but sentiment improved today morning and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation is left also therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5340 has to be watched today and in the coming sessions because next big moves will depend on it.

Sentiment improved today morning therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5280-5340 and prepare for next moves. Break out of this range will firstly decide the fate of Intermediate term trend as well as will give first strong indication of correction continuation/completion. 

Sustaining below 5280 will mean high Possibility of

Bull/Bear Match Deciding Over between 

5120-5190

Bull/Bear Match Deciding Over between 5120-5190

Nifty-EOD Chart(27-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(27-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD and today intraday charts

1- 1098 Points rally in 45 sessions.
2- Rising Trend line broken down.
3- Strong support(5340-5415) broken down today.
4- Whole day down move in Falling Channel.
5- Long Marubozu Candle today.
6- Whole day trading between 5269-5449 today.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1098 Points strong rally but could not cross 5600-5700 resistance and retraced after 3 sessions good selling between 5588-5625. As such strong rallies completes correction between sideways market therefore correction completion possibility near the lowest of strong support range(5340) was considered but following most negative factors triggered sharp declines in Indian markets:-

1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures traded more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.

Strong support of 5340 has been broken down today therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629):-

13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

As correction is on therefore All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally were updated on 25-02-2012:-

1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415

5340 broken down forcefully today and given strong indication of intermediate term trend turning down and its confirmation will mean:-

1- As Intermediate term trend confirmation means a trend from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore more down moves upto this period.
2- Testing possibility of above Supports and Retracement Levels.

Correction is on and no indication of its completion yet as well as today lowest(5268.15) is not much above next support range(5120-5190) therefore its testing possibility can not be ruled out. As following most crucial levels are placed between/little above this range therefore this range will decide the fate of Long term trend:-

1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172

Testing of 5120-5190 will mean Intermediate term downward confirmation and Long term trend will be at stake therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.