October IIP @ -5.1%(YoY)

Mid-session Outlook(12-12-2011)

Poor and disappoing IIP data triggered down moves and Nifty slipped below 4842. Most depressing point is Capital Goods numbers are at -25.5%. As so high negative growth therefore market reacts through sharp declines. Although market recovered and Nifty is trading above 4842 but market final reaction on today declared IIP Numbers will be understood through sustaining beyond 4842.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(12-12-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 4 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

1- Bullish Sub-Wave-3 is on cards after Correction completion
2-Two Bullish Candlestick patterns formation on 09-12-2011
3- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-12-2011

Asian markets are moderately up after strong rally in US and European markets last Friday therefore sentiment is positive today morning and Indian markets will open in Green and firstly trade within last Friday trading range(4842-4918).

Intraday consolidation patterns with two Bullish Candles patterns formation was seen last Friday,as per Candlestick theory confirmation of the trend reversal would be a higher open on the next trading day and that will be seen today. Expected that finally sustaining above 4918 will be seen after follow up buying in the coming sessions. Lower levels intraday support and fresh rally beginning indications after correction completion last Friday but crossing of next first resistance range( 4928-4980) is must for confirmations because long and Intermediate term trends are down at present.

Expected that follow up consolidation will be seen today and Indian markets will finally move and sustain above 4918 and close positive today.

Recent Topics for Next week Trading(Dec 12 to Dec 16,2011)

Following 3 topics have been posted for next week trading and some more topics will be posted before the opening on next Monday Markets. Just click link to go through and analyse charts also:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-12-2011
2- Two Bullish Candlestick patterns formation on 09-12-2011
3- Bullish Sub-Wave-3 is on cards after Correction completion

Bullish Sub-Wave-3 is on cards after Correction completion

Weekly Outlook(Dec 12 to Dec 16,2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Dec-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling Trend line in 13 Months correction.
2- Trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months at the bottom of 13 months correction.
3- Pull Back Rally is on from the bottom of correction

Conclusions

As trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months at the bottom of 13 months correction therefore finally long term downward trend reversal is expected and it is also possible that ongoing Pull Back Rally may reverse 13 months long down trend.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Pull Back rally faced correction in previous week but correction completion patterns also seen on 09-Dec-2011 therefore expected that Nifty will not slip below the lowest of previous week(4841.75) and coming week will prove a Bullish weak as well as new highs of Pull back rally will be formed in the coming week.

Two Bullish Candlestick patterns formation on 09-12-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Dec-2011):-

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Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Dec-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation in last 4 months at the bottom of 13 months correction.
2- Rally commencement on 24-11-2011 from 4660.
3- Correction of rally on 07-12-2011 from 5099.
4- Trend reversal two Bullish Candles pattern formation on intraday lowest at 4842 on 09-12-2011.

Conclusions

Two Bullish Candles patterns formation are as follows:-

1- Long legged Bullish Gravestone Doji- Low/Moderate Bullish reversal Candle
2- Doji Star Bullish- Moderate Bullish reversal Candle formation also seen.

As per theory confirmation of the trend reversal would be a higher open on the next trading day.

As intraday consolidation patterns also developed within Doji Candle and it was updated also during trading hours on 09-12-2011 therefore strong indications of previous week correction completion at 4642 with fresh up moves beginning from 12-12-2011.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 12-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(09-dec-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between- 4844-4882
2- Selling between- 4900-4917
3- Whole day trading between 4844-4917

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following moves and conclusions from intraday charts were projected today:-

1-Mid-session Outlook-"Consolidation signals emerged at lower levels today therefore short term up moves are expected and correction completion confirmation will be after sustaining above 4890"

2- Pre-Closing Outlook-"today intraday patterns are showing consolidation indications therefore upmoves hopes from today lower levels are alive despite more than 1.5% down closing today"

Although higher levels selling but whole day intraday patterns are showing consolidations therefore finally rally is expected in next week after correction completion today at 4841.75.

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-12-2011)

As soon as consolidation signals emerged at lower levels and short term up moves got confirmation then it was updated with the condition of sustaining above 4890 in Mid-session Outlook today. Good intraday up moves were seen also but selling at higher levels therefore lost almost whole intraday gains and slips to intraday lower levels after moving below 4890..


As lower levels buying and higher levels selling therefore break out of today trading range will be next moves confirmations but today intraday patterns are showing consolidation indications therefore upmoves hopes from today lower levels are alive despite more than 1.5% down closing today.

Mid-session Outlook(09-12-2011)

Consolidation signals emerged at lower levels today therefore short term up moves are expected and correction completion confirmation will be after sustaining above 4890.

Post-open Outlook(09-12-2011)

Following lines were told in 2 previous lotlooks which proved 100% accurate today:-

1- In Pre-Closing Outlook yesterday-"more down moves possibilities turned higher after breaking down of that support range in which Nifty is trading(4920-4950)"

2- Pre-open Outlook today-"Nifty will firstly trade between 4840-4890 after gap down opening. Indian markets will prepare for next moves within this range"

Nifty traded most of the time between 4840-4890 in first hour after gap down opening today but only high volatility and sharp intraday surge after 17 European countries agreement positive news. As 50.0% retracement level(4869) is also lying within mentioned today 1st trading range therefore this range is crucial and sustaining beyond this range will be next moves confirmation.

Only volatility within mentioned range today therefore no conclusive intraday patterns formations. Let market prepare and formation of intraday patterns complete then conclusions will be posted in the coming outlooks in the same manner as was told for down moves possibility in Pre-Closing Outlook yesterday.

Pre-open Outlook(09-12-2011)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD and Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 2 Charts therefore not being repeated:-

Correcion of Pull Back Rally is on

Asian markets are .70% to 1.4% down today morning after weak closing in US and European markets yesterday therefore sentiment is dampened and Nifty will firstly trade between 4840-4890 after gap down opening. Indian markets will prepare for next moves within this range and follow up buying/selling within this range as well as sustaining beyond this range will be next immediate moves confirmation.

Correcion of Pull Back Rally is on was posted yesterday and one addition in last lines which is as follows;-

1- 50.0% retracement level- 4869
2- 61.8% retracement level- 4815
3- Next support range- 4755-4800

Correcion of Pull Back Rally is on

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(9-12-2011)

Fibonacci Retracement Levels in Nifty-EOD Chart(08-Dec-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 8 sessions Pull Back rally.
2- Rally completion near 61.8% retracement level
3- correction of rally is on.

Conclusions

Down moves started from 5400 on 28-10-2011 which stopped and reversed at 4640. Main Fibonacci Retracement upward Levels of this down move are as follows:-

23.6%- 4819
38.2%- 4930
50.0%- 5020
61.8%- 5109
76.4%- 5220

Short term up moves begun from 4640 which halted near 61.8% retracement levels at 5099 and its correction commenced. Main Fibonacci Retracement upward Levels of thort term up moves are as follows:-

23.6%- 4990
38.2%- 4923
50.0%- 4869
61.8%- 4815
76.4%- 4748

Nifty closed at 4944 after forming low at 4922 on 8-12-2011. Next supports within Pull Back Rally(4640-5099) are as folllows:-

1- 4920-4950
2- 4755-4800
3- 4645-4720

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 09-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(08-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Two hours straight fall immediately after opening.
2- Last more than 4 hours sideways trading between 4928-4980 with intraday selling patterns
3- Whole day trading between 4922-5049

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

As selling patterns were concluded from intraday charts analysis therefore following lines were updated in Pre-Closing Outlook today and being repeated as conclusion from today intraday charts analysis:-

"last 4 hours sideways trading between 4928-4980 with intraday selling patterns therefore more down moves possibilities turned higher after breaking down of that support range in which Nifty is trading(4920-4950)"

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction is on and more down moves are expected after more than 4 hours intraday selling patterns today within above mentioned 1st support range. Complete consolidation patterns are required for stopping and reversal of today started down moves. Let on going correction stop and consolidation start then fresh up moves will be considered and for this purpose following level and support range will be firstly watched:-

1- 61.8% retracement level- 4815.
2- Next support range- 4755-4800

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 08-Dec-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-Dec-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 08-Dec-2011 2164.69 2138.97 25.72

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 08-Dec-2011 845.47 1042.98 -197.51

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(08-Dec-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle.
2- All the indices closed in Red.
3- Whole day down moves with closing near lowest levels of the day.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.10
Nifty P/E Ratio(08-Dec-2011): 17.90

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 839
BSE DECLINES : 1929
NSE ADVANCES : 312
NSE DECLINES : 1135

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Dec)- +667700(+20.03%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Dec)- -207200(-4.01%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Dec)- +785450(+16.81%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Dec)- -834450(-16.10%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,943.65(-118.95 Points & -2.35%)
Sensex- closed at 16,488.24(-388.82 Points & -2.30% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,693.60(-141.15 Points & -2.07%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,108.00(-99.90 Points & -1.61%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5149
R2 5099
R1 5021
Avg 4971
S1 4893
S2 4843
S3 4765

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5071     Trgt 2
H5 5042     Trgt 1
H4 5013     Long breakout
H3 4978     Go Short
H2 4966
H1 4954
L1 4931
L2 4919
L3 4907     Long
L4 4872     Short Breakout
L5 4843     Trgt 1
L6 4814     Trgt 2

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-12-2011

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 5175
R2 5124
R1 5040
Avg 4989
S1 4905
S2 4854
S3 4770

Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5091     Trgt 2
H5 5060     Trgt 1
H4 5030     Long breakout
H3 4993     Go Short
H2 4980
H1 4968
L1 4943
L2 4931
L3 4918     Long
L4 4881     Short Breakout
L5 4851     Trgt 1
L6 4820     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-12-2011

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Levels

R3 9415
R2 9299
R1 9114
Avg 8998
S1 8813
S2 8697
S3 8512

Bank Nifty(Dec Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9231     Trgt 2
H5 9163     Trgt 1
H4 9094     Long breakout
H3 9011     Go Short
H2 8984
H1 8956
L1 8901
L2 8873
L3 8846     Long
L4 8763     Short Breakout
L5 8694     Trgt 1
L6 8626     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(08-12-2011)

Firstly sharp fall in first 2 hours and after that almost last 4 hours sideways trading between 4928-4980 with intraday selling patterns therefore more down moves possibilities turned higher after breaking down of that support range in which Nifty is trading(4920-4950)

Mid-session Outlook(08-12-2011)

Indian markets showed its nervousness today after Union Govt. rolling back decision of FDI in Retails and slipped more than 1% after opening today. Nifty slipped below 5000 as welll as support of 5003 also has been broken down therefore next support range(4920-4950) testing possibility is high and this range should be watched.

Market is not moving only on technicals but reacting above mentioned news also therefore sustaining beyond mentioned support range will be next moves confirmations.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 08-12-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(07-dec-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5080-5098
2- Whole day trading between 5035-5098

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As soon as Profit booking signals emerged then it was updated in Mid-session Outlook at 11:30:00 AM yesterday and finally intraday selling confirmations between 5080-5098. Good consolidation was also seen between 5003-5033 on 05-12-2011 therefore Indian markets will remain sideways today and prepare for next moves between two previous sessions trading range(5003-5098)

Let market prepare for next moves then will be decided according to intraday charts formations and will be updated in Mid-session Outlooks during trading hours.

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-12-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5163.67
R2 5131.33
R1 5096.67
PIVOT 5064.33
S1 5029.67
S2 4997.33
S3 4962.67

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5129     Trgt 2
H5 5114     Trgt 1
H4 5098     Long breakout
H3 5080     Go Short
H2 5074
H1 5068
L1 5055
L2 5049
L3 5043     Long
L4 5025     Short Breakout
L5 5009     Trgt 1
L6 4994     Trgt 2