Technical Analysis,Research and Weekly Outlook (Nov 21 to Nov 25,2011))
Nifty-EOD Chart(18-Nov-2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- March 2009 rally top at 6338 on 05-11-2010
2- Last one year correction in falling trend line
3- Nifty retraced 4 times from falling trend line in last one year
4- Pull Back Rally started in Oct 2011 from 4728 and its correction is on.
5- Nifty has corrected upto 4837.
Nifty-EOD Chart(18-Nov-2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 61 Sessions range bound market between 4720-5229
2- Previously Nifty traded 54 sessions between 4720-5229.
3- Strong gap up 54 sessions break out was seen on 28-10-2011.
4- Nifty traded 8 sessions above 5229 but could not sustain above 5229 and reentered again within previous 54 sessions trading range.
5- Nifty again traded and closed in last 7 days between previous 54 sessions range.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(18-Nov-2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 4839-4874
2- Last 40 minutes mixed Patterns between 4891-4908
3- Intraday consolidation patterns
4- Whole day trading between 4839-4908
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Nifty traded whole day between 4839-4908 and following line was told in
Pre-open Outlook(18-11-2011):-
"Testing,firstly trading and next moves preparation within yesterday mentioned 1st support range (4845-4900) will be seen today"
Nifty traded almost whole day within mentioned 1st support range and prepare for next moves.
Following line was told in
Mid-session Outlook-2
"Lower levels support and intraday patterns are indicating consolidation formations"
Firstly more than 4 hours consolidation and after that up moves in last one hour and Nifty crossed as well as closed above 4900. Market got
good support within mentioned 1st support range and necely consolidated as well therefore short term up moves possibilities are high. As last 40 minutes mixed Patterns between 4891-4908 therefore
sustaining above 4900 should be firstly watched next Monday for short term up moves confirmations.
Conclusions (After putting all indicators together)
Falling trend line again proved fatal for Oct 2011 Pull Back Rally and Nifty again reatraced from it. Correction is on and last 2 support ranges of Oct 2011 rally are as follows:-
1- 4845-4900
2- 4745-4800
Oct 2011 Pull Back Rally started from 4728 and completed at 5400. Its Fibonacci Retracement Levels are as follows:-
13.0%- 5312
23.6%- 5241
27.0%- 5218
38.2%- 5143
50.0%- 5064
61.8%- 4984
70.7%- 4924
76.4%- 4886
78.6%- 4871(Tested and closed above after good consolidation below it)
88.6%- 4804(Only last level testing is left)
Oct 2011 rally has retraced more than 83% and got good support within 4839-4874 on 18-11-2011 as well as nice consolidation and base formation seen also. As Nifty again got support within previous support range(4845-4900) yesterday therefore it is a strong sign of strength and first signal of correction completion of Oct 2011 rally.
Rally have started after getting good support at 4839 last Friday and expected that rally will remain continued after follow up buying in the beginning of next week. Sustaining above 4900 should be firstly watched next Monday for confirmations.
