Indian markets Waves structure from 2008 Crash to 28-Oct-2011

Technical Analysis and Research & Market Outlook

Nifty-EOD Chart(28-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 2008 Crash and its 5 waves completed on 27-10-2008 at 2252.
2- 5 months range bound consolidation
3- Range break out in March 2009
4- Impulsive Wave 1 confirmation on 27-10-2008 from 2252.
5- Wave-3 completed at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010 and Wave-4 begun.
6- Wave-4 completed at 4720 on 26-08-2011 and Wave-5 begun.
7- Wave-5 beginning confirmation on 28-10-2011 after crossing the 54 Sessions range, 94 points gap and sustaining above 5323.

Conclusions

Impulsive Wave-5 beginning confirmation therefore expected that strong rally will be seen above all time high in the coming months and year(2012) as well as minimum target in 2012 is 6652(113% of Wave-3)

Wave-4 'ABC' Correction completion on 28-10-2011

Technical Analysis and Research & Market Outlook

Nifty-EOD Chart(28-Oct-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-4 correction.
2- 'ABC' Correction pattern.
3- 'ABC' Correction completion after break out of 54 Sessions range bound  market between 4720-5229.
4- Impulsive Wave-5 commencement confirmation.

Conclusions


Corrective Wave-4 completed and impulsive Wave-5 is on therefore expected that it will cross Wave-3 top(6338.50) and new highs will be seenaccording to Wave-5 targets.

Wave-4 correction completion at 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level

Technical Analysis and Research & Market Outlook

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions

It is the character that many time correction completes at or near about 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and same is visible in above EOD Chart. As Corrective Wave-4 completion and impulsive Wave-5 is beginning confirmation therefore expected that on going Wave-5 will cross all time high strong rally will be seen above all time high as well in the coming months and year(2012).

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(28-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green.
2- Nifty closed above 200-Day EMA and all trends are up now.
3- Today 104 points up gap filled the 94 points down gap of 05-08-2011.
4- Strong rally confirmation today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.28
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-Oct-2011): 19.03

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1686
BSE DECLINES : 1196
NSE ADVANCES :  968
NSE DECLINES :  488

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Nov)- -507150(-15.83%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Nov)- +1161950(+53.74%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Nov)- -394650(-10.94%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Nov)- +2351950(+326.64%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Nov)- +414100(+9.60%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Nov)- +1079100(+287.11%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Nov)- +1541250(+61.48%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Nov)- +463750(+173.62%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,360.70(+158.90 Points & +3.05%)
Sensex- closed at 17,804.80(+515.97 Points & +2.98% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,239.80(+166.15 Points & +2.35%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,959.73(+60.58 Points & +0.88%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 28-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 28-Oct-2011 5496.62 3330.41 2166.21

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 28-Oct-2011 1200.25 2278.66 -1078.41

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5475
R2 5437
R1 5398
Avg 5360
S1 5321
S2 5283
S3 5244

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5437     Trgt 2
H5 5419     Trgt 1
H4 5402     Long breakout
H3 5381     Go Short
H2 5374
H1 5367
L1 5352
L2 5345
L3 5338     Long
L4 5317     Short Breakout
L5 5300     Trgt 1
L6 5282     Trgt 2

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-10-2011

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 5472
R2 5437
R1 5411
Avg 5376
S1 5350
S2 5315
S3 5289

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5446     Trgt 2
H5 5432     Trgt 1
H4 5418     Long breakout
H3 5401     Go Short
H2 5396
H1 5390
L1 5379
L2 5373
L3 5368     Long
L4 5351     Short Breakout
L5 5337     Trgt 1
L6 5323     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 31-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 10221
R2 10109
R1 10034
Avg 9922
S1 9847
S2 9735
S3 9660

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10148     Trgt 2
H5 10105     Trgt 1
H4 10061     Long breakout
H3 10010     Go Short
H2  9993
H1  9976
L1  9941
L2  9924
L3  9907    Long
L4  9856    Short Breakout
L5  9812   Trgt 1
L6  9769    Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 31 to Nov 04,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5791
R2 5595
R1 5477
Avg 5281
S1 5163
S2 4967
S3 4849

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5690     Trgt 2
H5 5611     Trgt 1
H4 5532     Long breakout
H3 5446     Go Short
H2 5417
H1 5388
L1 5331
L2 5302
L3 5273     Long
L4 5187     Short Breakout
L5 5108    Trgt 1
L6 5029     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 31 to Nov 04,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10734
R2 10333
R1 10125
Avg 9724
S1 9516
S2 9115
S3 8907

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10564     Trgt 2
H5 10408     Trgt 1
H4 10251     Long breakout
H3 10084     Go Short
H2 10028
H1  9972
L1  9861
L2  9805
L3  9749    Long
L4  9582   Short Breakout
L5  9425    Trgt 1
L6  9269   Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(28-10-2011)

Blasting global cues,huge gap up and whole day trading above 05-08-2011 gap highest(5323) are the main features of today. Nifty is closing above 200-Day EMA and Long term trend is turning up as well as today intra day charts are also suggesting consolidations patterns therefore new phase of up moves is expected from coming sessions.

As minor selling indications at higher levels between 5350-5265 therefore on confirmation is required through sustaining above 5365.

Mid-session Outlook-2(28-10-2011)

As sentiment is most heated today therefore Indian markets slipped from higher levels after minor profit booking but until nifty will not sustain below 5323 till then any type of down moves will not be considered and outlook will remain bullish.

US futures are in Red and European markets are trading with minor gains because these markets have rallied strong in last couple of sessions but Indian markets have to react on last 2 sessions global markets rally therefore only minor intraday correction will be seen and finally sustaining above 5323 is expected.

Although market slipped from higher levels but today intraday patterns are showing consolidation formation therefore up moves outlook is maintained after 54 sessions range forceful break out  today.

Mid-session Outlook(28-10-2011)

Nifty is trading with intraday consolidation patterns between 5336-5354 after huge gap up opening therefore expected that Nifty will sustain above 5338 and long term trend will be up. As 54 sessions break out confirmation also today therefore high possibility of strong rally in the coming sessions and months.

Indian markets Outlook after Eurozone Debt Agreement

Technical Analysis and Research For 28-10-2011

US and all the European markets are 1.60% to 5.2% up today after eurozone debt agreement came early on 27-10-2011 and Global markets are celebrating Indian Diwali through blasting rally.


Nifty had been range bound between 4720-5229 for the last 54 Sessions after 94 Points gap down opening on 05-08-2011(5323-5229) and Expected that Indian markets will also react in the same manner and huge gap up opening will be seen on 28-10-2011.

Nifty closed at 5202 on Diwali Muhurat sessions and minimum 2% gap up opening expected tomorrow in Indian markets. Finally filling of 05-08-2011 gap and sustaining above 5323 will be confirmation of one year old correction completion. 200-Day EMA is at 5338 and sustaining above will mean all trends turning up as well.

New phase of up moves will begin from 28-10-2011 after huge gap up opening and up ward break out of 54 Sessions range. Expected that Nifty will firstly sustain above 5323 and all trends will be up through sustaining above 5338. Although resistances at higher levels but continuous higher levels consolidation and strong rally will be seen in the coming sessions,weeks and months.

Eurozone debt problems resolved and strong indication of one year correction completion confirmation on 28-10-2011. Sustaining above 5323 will also be 5th wave begining confirmation and that will also mean high possibility of new all time high formation in 2012.

Nifty-EOD Chart with projected up moves(26-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Detailed analysis have already been posted in following topic therefore not being repeated. Just click following link and go through:-

Indian markets Correction from Diwali-2010 to Diwali-2011

Indian markets Correction from Diwali-2010 to Diwali-2011

Diwali Muhurat trading Outlook(26-10-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(25-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Firstly 9 months Correction from Muhurat Trading on 05-11-2010 at 6338.50
2- 94 points gap down on 05-08-2011(5323-5229)
3- After that 54 sessions range bound market between 4720-5229.
4- Closing at the top of 54 sessions on 25-10-2011

Conclusions

Correction commenced from Muhurat Trading on 05-11-2010 at 6338.50 and after 9 months correction Indian markets are range bound between 4720-5229 for the last 54 sessions. It is the character of financial markets that sometimes they are used to turn range bound and prepare for  decisive strong move. Indian markets remained range bound 5 months after 2008 crashing like correction and after that more than 3800 Nifty points rally was seen from March 2009.

Nifty closed at the top of 54 sessions range after strong rally yesterday and correction completion possibilities have also emerged. Muhurat Trading-2011 will be seen in the strong sentiment and also in expectation of strong rally after 54 sessions correction completion.

Last 54 sessions trading range high is at 5229 and expected that finally Indian markets will cross and sustain above it but confirmation is must and that will be after the filling of 94 points gap 05-08-2011 and crossing of gap high at 5323.

As sentiment is heated therefore very short term correction is expected and if Nifty does not sustain below 5160 in expected correction and cross as well as sustain above 5229 then 54 sessions range bound market break out confirmation will be after filling of 5th Aug 2011 gap and crossing 5323.

Indian markets will trade in most heated sentiment during Muhurat Trading today therefore profit booking may be seen and should wait for correction completion before investment. Sentiment is celebrating Diwali after yesterday blasting up moves therefore next moves confirmation should be drawn from following 2 ranges:-

1- 5180-5220(First indication)
2- 5160-5240(Confirmation)

Happy Deepawali

Markets will be open from 4:30 p.m.(pre-open inclusive) to 6:00 p.m for Muhurat Trading on October 26th, 2011

Muhurat Trading Outlook(Diwali-2011) will be updated within 4 hours

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Nov-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long white Candle.
2- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
3- All the Indices closed near day's highs and in Green but Banking Index,Small Cap and CD closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.90
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Nov-2011): 18.39

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1331
BSE DECLINES : 1442
NSE ADVANCES :  655
NSE DECLINES :  760

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Nov)- -37950(-3.10%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Nov)- +1419900(+45.63%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Nov)- +199400(+10.33%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Nov)- +1564200(+95.60%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Nov)- +601650(+23.98%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Nov)- +876200(+163.61%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Nov)- +1122400(+54.97%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Nov)- +94000(+32.41%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,191.60(+93.25 Points & +1.83%)
Sensex- closed at 17,254.86(+315.58 Points & +1.86% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,010.15(+27.95 Points & +0.40%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,800.68(-5.00 Points & -0.07%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Oct-2011 3678.07 3233.31 444.76

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Oct-2011 1341.45 2220.91 -879.46

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-10-2011

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 5418
R2 5333
R1 5281
Avg 5196
S1 5144
S2 5059
S3 5007

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5369     Trgt 2
H5 5336     Trgt 1
H4 5304     Long breakout
H3 5266     Go Short
H2 5254
H1 5241
L1 5216
L2 5203
L3 5191     Long
L4 5153     Short Breakout
L5 5121     Trgt 1
L6 5088     Trgt 2