Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 17 to Oct 21,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5479
R2 5310
R1 5220
Avg 5051
S1 4961
S2 4792
S3 4702

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5403     Trgt 2
H5 5338     Trgt 1
H4 5273     Long breakout
H3 5202     Go Short
H2 5178
H1 5154
L1 5107
L2 5083
L3 5059     Long
L4 4988     Short Breakout
L5 4923     Trgt 1
L6 4858     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 17 to Oct 21,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10616
R2 10154
R1 9907
Avg 9445
S1 9198
S2 8736
S3 8489

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10422     Trgt 2
H5 10236     Trgt 1
H4 10049     Long breakout
H3 9854      Go Short
H2 9789
H1 9724
L1 9595
L2 9530
L3 9465     Long
L4 9270     Short Breakout
L5 9083     Trgt 1
L6 8897     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 14-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 14-Oct-2011 1921.6 2015.64 -94.04

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 14-Oct-2011 894.46 1132.31 -237.85

Pre-Closing Outlook(14-10-2011)

Strength was told within first half hour today and whole day up moves seen. Consolidation patterns at lower levels today  but last 90 minutes mixed patterns also within 5112-5140.

As today up moves are on the back of more than .75% positive US Futures and more than 1% up European markets as well as last 90 minutes intraday patterns are also showing mixed formations therefore sustaining beyond 5112-5140 will be firstly watched for confirmation on next Monday.

Mid-session Outlook(14-10-2011)

We understood positive market immediately after opening today therefore firstly we covered our shorting positions within first 5 minutes and also told following line within first 30 minutes for Indian markets:-

strength immediately after opening

Nifty moved up more than 25 pomts after our above message and 47 points after our short covering message.. Following guidance for today trading has been given in both previous outlooks:-

Firstly trading expected between 5050-5100 and follow up buying/selling will decide next decisive moves today. sustaining below 5050 will be deeper correction confirmation as well as sustaining above 5100 will be first indication of up moves and confirmation will be moving above 5135.

Consolidation patterns today but selling also within 5090-5135 yesterday therefore up moves expectations are equally high today and confirmation will be after moving above 5135.

Post-open Outlook(14-10-2011)

Indian markets ignored weaker Global cues and showed strength immediately after opening therefore following lines of Pre-open Outlook(14-10-2011)will be kept in mind for next moves confirmations:-

"sustaining below 5050 will be deeper correction confirmation as well as sustaining above 5100 will be first indication of up moves and confirmation will be moving above 5135"

NIFTY-Oct F&O-1st Shorting of 13-10-2011-Covering

NIFTY Oct F & O(Shorted on 13-10-2011)-Cover immediately-CMP-5077

Pre-open Outlook(14-10-2011)

Almost all the Asian markets are in Red today morning therefore sentiment is little weak and expected that Indian markets will first trade near the lower levels of yesterday after flat to negative opening today.

Firstly trading expected between 5050-5100 and follow up buying/selling will decide next decisive moves today. sustaining below 5050 will be deeper correction confirmation as well as sustaining above 5100 will be first indication of up moves and confirmation will be moving above 5135.

As Good selling yesterday therefore firstly weakness expected today and above mentioned levels break out will be confirmation of today market preparation and next moves of Indian markets.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 14-10-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(13-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5120-5135
2- Selling between 5115-5128
3- Selling between 5090-5097
3- Whole day trading between 5068-5135

Conclusions

46 Sessions range bound market between 4720-5229 with strong resistances at higher levels between 5145-5220. Fresh consolidation was required today for crossing and sustaining above 4922 but intraday selling seen between above mentiined ranges therefore down moves are expected tomorrow.


Only one day selling is sufficient for begining of down moves and deeper down moves will depend on follow up selling tomorrow. Fresh resistance is 5090-5135 and until Nifty will not cross this range till then any up move will not be considered therefore sustaining beyond this range will be watched tomorrow for continuation or completion of today started correction.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(13-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Black Candle.
2- Slipped from higher levels and Red closing.
3- Almost all the Indices closed near lower levels of the day but closing is mixed.
4- As intraday charts are showing selling patterns therefore weak market expected tomorrow.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.28
Nifty P/E Ratio(13-Oct-2011): 18.35

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1371
BSE DECLINES : 1417
NSE ADVANCES :  693
NSE DECLINES :  716

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Oct)- -190650(-9.33%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Oct)- +12900(+0.21%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Oct)- -164250(-4.73%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Oct)- +395350(+7.46%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Oct)- +1024800(+23.89%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Oct)- +150550(+5.04%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,077.85(-21.55 Points & -0.42%)
Sensex- closed at 16,883.92(-74.47 Points & -0.44% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,106.40(-4.70 Points & -0.07%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,886.27(+4.12 Points & +0.06%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5188
R2 5162
R1 5119
Avg 5093
S1 5050
S2 5024
S3 4981

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5146     Trgt 2
H5 5130     Trgt 1
H4 5114     Long breakout
H3 5095     Go Short
H2 5089
H1 5083
L1 5070
L2 5064
L3 5058     Long
L4 5039     Short Breakout
L5 5023     Trgt 1
L6 5007     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5194
R2 5167
R1 5120
Avg 5093
S1 5046
S2 5019
S3 4972

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5148     Trgt 2
H5 5131    Trgt 1
H4 5114    Long breakout
H3 5094     Go Short
H2 5087
H1 5080
L1 5067
L2 5060
L3 5053     Long
L4 5033     Short Breakout
L5 5016     Trgt 1
L6 4999     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9776
R2 9720
R1 9636
Avg 9580
S1 9496
S2 9440
S3 9356

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9692     Trgt 2
H5 9660     Trgt 1
H4 9629     Long breakout
H3 9590     Go Short
H2 9577
H1 9564
L1 9539
L2 9526
L3 9513     Long
L4 9475     Short Breakout
L5 9443     Trgt 1
L6 9411     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-Oct-2011 2529.14 1859.06 670.08

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-Oct-2011 902.87 1160.23 -257.36

NIFTY-Oct F&O-1st Selling of 13-10-2011-Trade

NIFTY(Oct Fut-Sell-Positional)SL-5106TGT-5026-CMP-5073

NIFTY(Oct Put Option-Buy-Positional)SL-5106TGT-5026-S.P.FOR Put-5000,5100(Oct Fut-Rates for all Options)-CMP-5073

Pre-Closing Outlook(13-10-2011)

Following line was told within first 15 minutes in Post-open Outlook today and Nifty slipped more than 50 points after our following message:-

Gap up opening,Trading in Green but not strong today

Following support was told in Mid-session Outlook today and Nifty moved up more than 30 points after our following posting:-

Minor support indications at lower levels also between 5079-5091

Lower levels buying and higher levels selling today but intraday patterns are showing selling formations therefore down moves are expected tomorrow.

Mid-session Outlook(13-10-2011)

Following line was told within first 15 minutes in Post-open Outlook today:-

Gap up opening,Trading in Green but not strong today

We clearly meant that market is not strong despite gap up opening and Green zone trading.

Nifty slipped more than 50 points after above message. Clear selling at higher levels today but complete selling required for temination of 5 sessions old rally. Minor support indications at lower levels also between 5079-5091 therefore follow up moves will give confirmation of next market.

As mixed trading positions today therefore today trading range(5079-5135) break out  will be watched for next trending market confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(13-10-2011)

Gap up opening,Trading in Green but not strong today. Mentioned range(5090-5155) break out will be next moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Research For 13-10-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(12-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 45 sessions range bound market between 5720-5229
2- Strong resistances between 5145-5220
3- Falling Trendline Resistance

Conclusions

Correction begun on 05-11-2010 in Falling Trend Line from 6338 and 45 sessions range bound market between 4720-5229 at the lowest levels of correction. It is the character of range bound markets that markets becomes extremely depressed at that lower levels and over enthusiastic at higher levels and markets reverse from that point also therefore first of all sustaining beyond 5229 will be watched in the coming sessions.

Don't be Bullish or Bearish & only wait for sustaining beyond or forceful break out of 4720-5229 for next long term trend confirmation and:-

1- Above 5229 will be strong indication of 11 months correction termination.
2- Below 4720 will be confirmation of correction continuation.

Next strong resistances are between 5145-5220 and market require complete consolidation to cross 5229.As Nifty retraced 3 times earlier from the top of 45 sessions mentioned range therefore it does not mean that it will be repeated again. No selling formation till yesterday and fresh selling is must for beginning of any down moves but consolidation today will also mean strong rally possibility above 5229.

Global markets are trading with good gains and sentiment is upbeat today morning therefore firstly gap up opening and after that Nifty will trade between 5090-5155 as well as prepare for any type of market between this range. Break out and sustaining beyond this this range will be next moves confirmation.

Just watch 5090-5155 for next moves confirmations.